Dave Malinsky
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
4* CINCINNATI over ST. LOUIS
4* ST. LOUIS/CINCINNATI Under
We want to get behind Aaron Harang here. And with his 4-16/4.96 in the pitching forms, we are among the only ones looking in that direction. That is part of why a St. Louis team mired in an 0-6 slide is a road favorite, and also why we are seeing a full “9” for this Total with two slumping offenses involved. So we will play both Harang options in this game, and use some sequencing notions to our advantage.
The Cardinals have been held to three runs or less five times in their losing streak, including four deuces. They have scored more than five runs one time in their last 11 games, and in that one only reached six. So here is how it works. If the Cardinals score five runs or less, we can not get hurt much. A 5-4 St. Louis victory leaves us with an 0-1-1, but any other score with the Cardinals on five is no worse than a split. Make the St. Louis production four or less, which we project, and there is a good chance to make a serious profit.
Which takes us to Harang. The Cincinnati right-hander has been one of the most consistent performers in the Major Leagues in recent years, including a combined 32-17/3.75 in the 2006-07 seasons. So does the fact that his current ERA is more than a full run above that cause us concern? No. The problem is that he has had to battle through an injury that was worse than originally thought, which led to an awful beginning to the season. That works for us, because his early numbers were so bad that there are not enough innings left in the season to correct them. As such, an outstanding current run has gone un-noticed by the markets. He has worked to a solid 2.45 over his last five outings, a span in which he has allowed only 28 hits in 33 innings, while sporting a solid ratio of 26 strikeouts vs. only nine walks. When competitors like him get on a roll we can confidently back them to make up for lost time, and the Harang we expect to see tonight is one that will pitch as though the playoffs were on the line. With the bullpen well-set behind him, we can confidently call for the slumping Cardinal offense to be held in check again, and by working both ends of this equation a weak Cincinnati lineup is reduced to being a lesser concern.
Michael Cannon
Boston +115 at TAMPA BAY
Take the Red Sox tonight over the Rays.
Great late-season series between these two and I’m siding with the knuckleballer Tim Wakefield.
Wakefield has been in this position all throughout his career, and there’s nothing more challenging to hit than a knuckleball when it’s doing its thing. The Boston right-hander is 19-4 with a 3.10 ERA in 30 career games against Tampa.
I don’t care what Tampa teams those numbers came against, it’s still pretty impressive.
The Rays will counter with Matt Garza, who is 11-9 with a 3.60 ERA on the year. But the right-hander has stumbled a bit down the stretch, going 0-2 with a 4.24 ERA in his last three starts.
Take the Red Sox as they grab the road win.
3♦ BOSTON
Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take the Indians minus 1 1/2 runs.
Cliff Lee has been an absolutely amazing story this season. It's a total shame that the soon to be Cy Young award winner will not be in the postseason. The southpaw was so bad last season that he was sent down to the minor leagues and most people lost hope for him knowing that he had great stuff but apparently he was not going to put it all together as so many young pitchers seem to fail to do.
The Indians have had a terrible season when compared to the high hopes after last season's successful run, save blowing it against the Red Sox, but the one bright spot in Lee has been complete money all season long. The southpaw has been complete gold overall and for gamblers and nothing at all has changed of late as the Tribe win game after game after game with their ace on the bump.
Minnesota needs to win every game if they want to beat out the White Sox and gain a berth in the postseason buit today's task may just be a bit much. The Twinkies have been overachieving this season and have a very solid pitcher today in Scott Baker who can hold his own but I have seen it too many times where Lee and the Indians just continue to win and cash the ticket going away.
The Twins have two studs in Mauer and Morneau but both are lefties and should have their hands full here with the southpaw. In the end there is no reason to believe that Lee will be anything but great as he is on a mission and continues to try and lock down that Cy Young award.
Baker may be good but that should not be good enough as the Cliff Lee train just keeps on chugging along in something like a 4-1 win here!
Craig Trapp
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: Chicago White Sox
Don't be surprised if this one is a slugest. Both pitchers are young with not much starting experience in the big leagues. NYY are out of the playoff picture and are just playing the season our whereas the CHW are up 2 1/2 games on MIN and need to win this one. CHW will pull this one out late and maybe score double digits here.
Lenny Del Genio
Game: Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
We always look to go against pitchers making their return from an extended stay on the DL, so we'll go against the Yankees and Phil Hughes, who makes his first start since April, tonight. What is all this hype about Hughes, anyway? Prior to going on the disabled list, the Bronx Bombers had won only one of his five starts and his ERA was 9.00. The Yankees are dead anyways, and are facing a White Sox team involved in a heated pennant race in the AL Central. Take Chicago White Sox.
Erik Scheponik
Kansas State vs. Louisville
Play: Louisville
Cardinals have not been a home underdog since 2002 and only twice since the turn of the century (2-0 SU/ATS). They are 41-7 SU at Papa John's Stadium during that time frame, and the atmosphere should be very unfriendly for a televised night game. Steve Kragthorpe is under a bit of fire here, but there is enough back talent on this team to be bowl caliber this season. KSU is also a bowl-caliber squad but offf of a 5-7 season and having only blown out North Texas and 1AA Montana St thus far this season, I'm not sure they've proven enough to be laying points at this venue. They took two TD's from Lousiville at home two years ago, and although these aren't the same Cardinals, that equates to about a 25 pt. line swing when adjusted for home field. KSU by only 1.
Drew Gordon
Boston +115 at TAMPA BAY
If oddsmakers want to give me Wakefield at plus money, coming off his best start of the season, against a team he's dominated over his career... That's fine by me, as we ride the veteran knuckler and the Red Sox right past the Rays in tonight's rubber match!
Wakefield dominated the Jays in his last start, tossing 8 scoreless, allowing only 3 hits! Look for him to build off that effort against a Rays team he's totally dominated throughout his career, going 17-4 with a 3.23 ERA in 30 career starts against them! He's 0-1 against them this season in 2 starts, but has posted a solid 2.77 ERA over that span!
Second game of this series was a stark contrast to the first, which featured plenty of runs from this Red Sox offense. However, yesterday they went cold, as Sonnanstine and the Rays 'pen comined to allow just 1 unearned run. Look for the Red Sox offense to reawaken tonight versus Matt Garza, who's got a couple things going against him in this match up.
Garza hasn't exactly been consistent this season, following impressive starts with head scratching efforts. He's allowed 4 runs apiece in 3 of his last 4 home starts, including a loss to the Yankees in his last one at Tropicana. Note, the Rays have lost 4 of his last 5 starts, and right now, Garza finds himself plenty vulnerable against a powerhouse Boston batting order. He's also 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in 3 career starts against the Red Sox.
In the end, although it seems rather simplistic, the Rays win when they pitch well. Sonnanstine proved that point yesterday, but this time around, Garza can hardly be counted on, especially the way he's been pitching of late. In the end, Red Sox come out swinging, as they ride Wakefield to the W in this one!
Take Boston behind Wakefield over Tampa Bay and Garza in this MLB match up.
2♦ BOSTON
Gina
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Giants have not been successful versus the Diamondbacks in Arizona and right-hander Brandon Webb. San Francisco is 5-13 in their last 18 games at Chase Field and have lost five of the last six contests, 0-3 this season when Webb is on the mound. Go with the Diamondbacks. The Giants have lost eight of their last 12 road games.
Arizona Diamondbacks -220
Stephen Nover
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Under
The St. Louis Cardinals are averaging less than three runs during their past six games. Now the Cardinals draw Aaron Harang, who is having a horrible season.
But Harang has finally started to pitch well. He's put together five straight quality starts. His ERA during this span is 2.45.
The 'under' is 8-2-1 during St. Louis' past 11 games.
The Reds figure to be held in check by St. Louis starter Todd Wellemeyer. He's been at his best on the road compiling a 4-1 away mark with a 2.87 ERA in 13 starts.
Wellemeyer should be especially motivated because he'll be pitching in front of family and friends. He's from nearby Louisville, Ky.
This has been an 'under' series with the 'under' going 9-4-1 in the past 14 games between these two clubs.
Larry Ness
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
Aaron Harang of the Reds entered this season off back-to-back 16 win seasons, pitching for a team which played .494 baseball in '06 and .444 in '07. Even more impressively, the Reds went 24-10 (plus-$1,347) in his starts last year, making him MLB's biggest "money-maker." How quickly things can change. The Reds are once again playing sub-.500 baseball in '08 (.460) but Harang's year has been a 'nightmare.' He's 4-16 with a 4.96 ERA, with the team going 10-16 (minus-$749) in his 26 starts. He's been just AWFUL against Central Division foes, going 1-9 with a 6.14 ERA in 13 starts, including 0-2 with a 10.61 ERA in two starts versus the Cards. Opposing Harang will be Todd Wellemeyer, who is 12-7 with a 3.63 ERA. Wellemeyer has pitched very well away from home this year, going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 13 starts. It's not his fault that the Cards are just 6-7 in those 13 starts, as he's been very good. However, I feel his luck should change here, against Harang. Take St Louis.
Wunderdog
Seattle at Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -151
The Mariners have cashed in their chips for the season. When Seattle does go on the road their motivation is to get the game over with and get closer to closing the curtain on a dreadful 2008 season. The M's have now dropped eight straight on the road and will be hard-pressed to deliver a win in this contest. Gil Meche has pitched the Royals to 12 wins in his last 17 starts, while Ryan Rowland Smith has failed to deliver in five of his last seven. The Royals’ secret weapon is what they have done against left-handed pitching. They are a last place team, yet they have logged more wins against left-handed pitching than any other team. That's all you need to know here, the Royals get it done.
Tom Freese
Play: San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is 7-2 their last 9 games vs. righty starters and they are 8-3 their last 11 games overall. The Giants are 10-2 with Jonathan Sanchez if he is off a quailty start in his last outing and they are 8-1 with Sanchez in Game 3 of a series. Arizona is 2-8 their last 10 games vs. NL West teams and they are 4-10 their last 14 games vs. losing teams. The Diamondbacks are 1-6 off a win and their starter tonight Brandon Webb has allowed 21 runs in his last 21.2 innings of work.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Los Angeles Dodgers -172
The Dodgers have won back-to-back games at Pittsburgh and I like them to make it three straight tonight. The Dodgers are an impressive 42-13 in the last 55 meetings and 24-6 in the last 30 meetings in Pittsburgh. The Dodgers are 14-2 in their last 16 overall and 10-1 in their last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Pirates are 4-12 in their last 16 home games and they haven't been able to buy a win with Duke on the hill. We won't bother listing him because I think the Pirates would lose with Nolan Ryan on the mound in his prime right now, but the Pirates are 6-21 in Dukes last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 0-6 in Dukes last 6 home starts. Take the Dodgers.
Mr A
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles's Chad Billingsley (15-10, 3.02 ERA),is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 4.22 ERA In five career starts against the Pirates.
Pittsburgh's Zach Duke (5-14, 4.84), is 1-2 with a 1.66 ERA in his last three starts. The lefthander is 1-3 with a 7.28 ERA in five starts against the Dodgers
The Dodgers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games and have won six of their last eight games on the road. Meanwhile the struggling Pirates have lost 19 of their last 25 games and 12 of its last 16 at home.
Take the Dodgers. Pittsburgh has dropped six of the last seven versus Los Angeles at home and Zach Duke is 0-6 with a 6.75 ERA in his last six starts at PNC Park.
Los Angeles Dodgers -175
NCAAF
Kansas State at Louisville
The Cardinals' offense is struggling. Look for the Wildcats to go up 3-0 in a low scoring battle.
Kansas State Wildcats -4
Chip Chirimbes
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles won its fourth straight at Pittsburgh and improved to 22-6 at PNC Park. The Dodgers have never lost a series there and are guaranteed at least a split in this set.The Pirates have dropped eight of 11 and 19 of their last 25 games.Outstanding starting pitching has played a key role in the Dodgers' resurgence, going 12-1 with a 2.26 ERA in the last 16 games. A major part of that success has been Chad Billingsley (15-10, 3.02 ERA), who looks to win four straight starts for the second time this season.The right-hander has taken another step forward in 2008, improving his win total and lowering his ERA for the third consecutive year. He turned in another strong outing Friday in a 7-2 win at Colorado, allowing two runs and six hits in six innings.Billingsley has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in 12 straight starts while pitching at least six innings in 10 of those appearances.In five career appearances - one start - Billingsley is 2-0 with a 4.22 ERA against the Pirates. This will be his first start versus Pittsburgh since a 5-2 victory on Sept. 21, 2006.Zach Duke (5-14, 4.84) hopes to avoid matching a career high with his 15th loss. The left-hander was unable to build on one of the best starts of his career, getting tagged for six runs - two earned - and six hits over 4 2-3 innings Thursday in a 6-0 loss at Houston. He threw a six-hitter in a 7-0 win at San Francisco in his previous start for his first victory since June 9.Duke is 0-6 with a 6.75 ERA in his last six home starts.He is 1-3 with a 7.28 ERA in five starts against the Dodgers, giving up 44 hits in 29 2-3 innings.