Larry Ness
20* NL Game of the Month (10-5 with 20* GOM plays since June 1)
Marlins
Prime Time Delight-KSU/Louisville (62.1 percent start to FB '08!)
Louisville
Robert Ferringo
1-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-125) over Philadelphia
Today's Totals
3.5-Unit Play. Take Over 8.0 Seattle at Kansas City
2-Unit Play. Take Under 9.0 St. Louis at Cincinnati
1-Unit Play. Take Under 9.0 Boston at Tampa Bay
Greg Shaker
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Play: Rangers -1.5 +130
I am playing this game at 1/2 Mondayline of -137 and 1/2 Runline of +130. That will give us a push on a 1 run win, better better odds, and less risk. The best way to describe the Detroit Tiger Team right now is weary and distraught over a season that has been as disapointing as it possibly could have been. They are playing like they want this nightmare to end as quickly as it can and they have lost 6 times in a row. That is not what is happening at the Ranger Camp with Texas hitting and scoring very effectively and making a mockery out of every righthanded thrower that comes at them. This team is batting over the .300 mark verses MLB Regular Side Throwers the last 15 games played and they are right at the .300 mark in this stadium this year. There is no doubt that we have the better starter on the mound tonight as Nippert has taken well to his new starting roll. This guy has got a lively fastball and he has used it very well over the last 3 outings, striking out 18 batters in 17.1 inning pitched. That tells me that he is "ON" and that switch is not likely to move as he faces a team that is having serious problems hitting righthanded throwing. The Tigers have never faced Nippert but they have faced a lot of righthanded throwing over the last 12 played and they have managed just a .205 BA during that time. The Tigers are loaded with "Talent" and these guys just don't give a Rat's Ass right now. While they continue to score their share of runs, their pitching staff continues to give up more. That is especially true of the Bullpen, which has been Piss Poor all year and currently have an ERA over 7 runs the last 15 played. Freddy Garcia gets the start for the Tigers tonight and while he is happy to be back in the Big's, he has thrown just 5 innings prior to tonight at Class A Lakeland and Triple A Toledo. Freddy might be effective tonight and he might not. He will not throw deep into this game for sure and we will see another Tiger Adventure on the mound. I suspect that the Rangers will have that Tiger by the Tail and Buck Owens and I will just to have to grab the Rangers tonight.
3Daily Winners
Houston Astros vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
Play Against all underdogs like Houston with a money line of +175 to +250, where the team's hitters draw three walks or less a game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Florida's Ricky Nolasco (14-7, 3.56), who has WHIP under 1.000 over his last five starts. Over the last three years, this system is sensational 39-6, 86.6 percent. Follow the Fish.
Bettingresource
LAA Angels - Oakland
Pick: Angels 7 units
Boston - Tampa Bay
Pick: Under 9 7 units
Red Dog
4* STL / Cincy Under
Marco D'Angelo
TAM (-130) vs BOS
PLAY: TAMPA BAY
RATING: SINGLE DIME PLAY
Tonight I am Betting Tampa Bay as Tampa Bay got the victory last night 2-1 and following a one run victory at home this year Tampa Bay is 14-3 in their next game. Very important game and my money is on the home team team. This is MARCO'S 14-3 BASEBALL POWER PLAY.
Tommy Rider
Double-Dime Bet
Louisville +4.0 vs Kansas St.
Defensive coordinator Ron English's much-improved stop unit will be the difference tonight. I had this line at Louisville -2 but oddsmakers knew the public would be all over Kansas State because the Cards got blown away on national TV in their opener against Kentucky. I like the Cardinals to win easy at home tonight over a Kansas State squad that has struggled badly on the road under Ron Prince. The Ville turns out the lights on Kansas State tonight. **2 UNIT Play**
Bob Majors
Double-Dime Bet
Louisville +4.0 vs Kansas St.
The Kansas State Wildcats are traveling to the Louisville Cardinals in a Wednesday night matchup.
The Wildcats are 2-0 playing at home against two patsies in Montana State and North Texas State and beating both very easily. The Wildcats have not really been tested as of this season and this is the first game on the road.
Meanwhile, the Cardinal are 1-1 losing to Kentucky and beating a Tennessee Tech squad that was weak. The Cardinal have a good defense and very good against the run. The offense will develop on the fly under first year coordinator and for QB Jeff Brohm.
The Wildcats are 6-15 ATS last 21 games on the road and 1-7 in last 8 road games. The Cards are 22-3 straight up in its last 25 home games.
I like the chances of the Cardinals winning straight up and they are playing with a Home Team crowd.
Take Louisville and the points.
Marc Lawrence
Louisville +4 vs Kansas St.
Play On: Louisville
When the Cardinals play host to the Wildcats Wednesday night they will do so knowing they are 22-3 SU and 17-7 ATS in their last 25 home games, including a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS when hosting a winning team. Kansas State fits that bill, in name only, entering 2-0 on the season with wins over North Texas and Montana State.While Louisville is 1-1 on the season, their defense has improved leaps and bounds over last year's leaky unit as they are allowing a mere 193 YPG. The kicker is head coach Steve Kragthorpe's 9-0 ATS career mark as a dog in games against an opponent off back-to-back wins.Look for the Cardinals to expose the Wildcats as a fraud here tonight.
Milwaukee / Cubs
3* Milwaukee
JRTips
10,000,000 * Pittsburgh +164
5,000,000 * Baltimore +160
5,000,000* Oakland +101
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Double-Dime Bet
ARI / SFG Under 7.5
It is amazing how bad this Arizona offense is right now. Last night they faced a struggling Matt Cain and they still could only manufacture two runs of support. The good news for the Diamondbacks was that the two runs were enough for the win thanks to having Dan Haren on the mound. Wednesday, we look for a similar result in Game Three of this Giants/Dbacks series. Talk about line value! This line is currently a 7.5 and there has only been a total of six runs scored in the first two games of this series! With Brandon Webb on the mound we look for another solid start from the Dbacks pitching staff as, overall, Arizona has allowed just eight runs in their last five games and this has helped them to go 3-2 during this five game stretch. The problem for Arizona has been their offense as they have scored three runs or less in ten of their last eleven games! Don't look for a sudden offensive resurgence from the Diamondbacks tonight! They will be facing a solid Giants hurler. Jonathan Sanchez did struggle in his last start against Arizona but that has been the exception rather than the norm as most of his recent starts have been solid. Yes, he has had some trouble with the Diamondbacks in the past but, as noted above, the Dbacks just are not hitting the ball right now! Sanchez has allowed three earned runs or less in five straight starts. Overall, he?s 7-6 on the road this season and don't be fooled by his 4.59 ERA away from home. Teams are hitting just .248 against Sanchez on the road. He will have success against a floundering Diamondbacks lineup tonight. Couple that with 20-game winner Brandon Webb continuing his dominance and you have the makings of a pitchers? duel here! After struggling in three straight starts, Webb got back on track in his most recent outing and that came against a Reds team that had hitting the ball well. Now Webb will be facing a Giants lineup that he?s dominated in the past. Webb is 12-5 against San Francisco with a 3.25 ERA and the Giants have hit just .234 against him! Even though he gave up three earned runs against San Francisco the last time he faced them, the Giants only managed four hits against him as he produced seven solid innings of work! San Francisco has managed just 12 hits in 18 innings so far in this series. Facing Webb tonight means that things only get tougher for the sputtering Giants offense and that spells another U-N-D-E-R!
Double-Dime Bet
Louisville / Kansas St. Under 56
The weather is expected to be beautiful in Louisville on Wednesday night so we won?t get any help with the under in this match-up in that regard. However, even with nice conditions it?s the match-ups on this field that will dictate a lower-scoring game than many are expecting. The only time these teams met was just two years ago and that was coach Ron Prince?s first year with Kansas State. The Wildcats held the nation?s top scoring offense to less than half their scoring average and the 24 points they produced in that game was their fewest scored in nearly a full year. The fact is that Prince knew what he was doing then in scheming a solid defense against the potent Cardinals and he?ll do the same thing on Wednesday night. Plus the Cardinals are not the same potent offense they use to be. Brian Brohm is gone now and, overall, the Cardinals brought back just four starters on offense this season. Sure Louisville put up 51 points on Tennessee Tech in their last game but in their first game they faced Kentucky and their offense was shutout as their only points in the game came on a safety! Of course tonight they?re facing a defense more like Kentucky and less like Tennessee Tech! In other words, look for the Cardinals offense to struggle as Kansas State has already gotten a good tune-up on defense by facing North Texas and Montana State in their first two games. Sure that?s some weak competition but the fact is that a defense can grow in confidence when they?ve only allowed a total of 16 points in two games. As for Louisville they?ve been able to grow in confidence defensively as they?ve allowed a total of just 37 points in their first two games! It?s the defenses that are coming into this game holding the edge and Kansas State has added a big influx of junior college talent and so, despite having just five starters back on defense, this Wildcats D is better than you would think! Their linebackers are some of the best in the Big Twelve and that?s saying a lot. Also, being strong at the LB position is a key to stopping the Cardinals offense and the Wildcats will enjoy success in that regard. However, Louisville?s defense will also enjoy success against a Kansas State offense that hasn?t been tested yet. When you?ve only fasted the defenses of North Texas and Montana State, you?re in for a rude awakening when the schedule toughens and that is precisely the case tonight. The defenses will be on display in Louisville on Wednesday
The King Maker
Louisville +5.0 (-115) vs Kansas St. 1-Unit
Believe it or not: You can actually but this line up to +6 at -135 at BetUs as of this morning! Of course, those guys have been weird with thier lines.
Right now it looks like most books are moving into the 4.5 range with BetUS gearing up for a move to +5...I bought the hook at BetUS, so they gave me a decent (-115) because they have the Cards installed at (-105). I had to grab the line BECAUSE I HAVE TO POST MY PLAY FOR YOU, but I highly urge you to WAIT for the public to drive the number to 5 or 5.5......I placed wagers in a few accounts, BUT I AM WAITING FOR the line to move before I drive most of my volume on this game.
That being said.
The Kansas State Defense is not as good as you think.
Did you know that Ron Prince shook up the depth chart for his defense this week? He just placed a Freshman at one defensive end spot, and moved his other defensive end to the other side? They switched a starting ILB to a reserve spot at OLB, and they added a JUCO to ILB with ZERO starts under his belt, and he's joining the other ILB who has 2 starts under his belt. Add a Safety and a Corner with their first starts, and you have the ingredients for missed assignments!
The Wildcat pass rush was anemic during the last two games, so it appears that he had to move his strong vetran left end to the right side, and he's rolling the dice with an unproven FRESHMAN on the left!
On top of this, he is throwing in a JUCO as a starter in the linebacking corp. He bumped a Senior ILB and moved him to the outside as a reserve.
STATE NOW HAS 2 STARTING ILB WITH 2 STARTS BETWEEN THEM AT THIS LEVEL!
Is this the sign of a defense that has settled into it's system?
NO!
As it stands, the K-State defense missed a ton of tackles in the last two games, and their corners apparently ARE NOT willing to bump the recievers off the line, so the defense seems tentative. They have been soft in coverage, probably due to their size (5'11", 6'0",
But the biggest issue is that this defense is LINEBACKER DRIVEN. They rotate between the 3-4 and 4-3 allignment on the fly, and having 2 first time starters int he front 7 is a dangerous situation when you suddenly switch from playing North Texas and Montana State to going on the road in a loud stadium, VS a complex offense.
I need you to understand that Kansas State's defense is STILL in flux, and they are not prepared...cannot be prepared...if they are placing a first time starter at LB and a first time starter on the line! That defense has to read and react on the fly, so add the NOISE, and add the fact that Louisville is not a cupcake, and you will see that Hunter Cantwell may have a shot at really screwing with this defense. (Like he did in 2006)
Do not underestimate the TECHNICAL aspect of a given matchup. Prince is moving positions among his LB's, and that's not a good thing, especially after facing two of the weakest teams in football. They were not tackling, they were not sacking.
North Texas averaged 4.0 yards per carry.
(by the way: K-State only ran for 4.0 VS Montana State)
I digress:
Look guys! They have a new starter at.....
Right Defensive End (FRESHMAN)
Inside Line Backer (Junior-2 total starts!)
Inside Line Backer (JUCO-no starts)
Strong Safety has a first time starter.
Cornerback has a 5'11 guy replacing the starter.
This unit has not played together on a consistant basis, and this is a defense that has to communicate to survive.
This defense is driven from the LB spot! There is instability and inexperience in that area!
The story out of Manhattan is the inability of this team to tackle and sack.
The actions of the head coach are simply a TRUE indicator that the situation is NOT GOOD for that defense.
I'm slapping an OVERRATED tag on that unit, and I think the Cardinals will move the ball on this team.
I'll get to the Wildcat offense next....
Can we Qualify Freeman (KSU) as a STAR?
Let's temper our enthusiasm, and back away from the "Explosive" tag that the Wildcat offense is being awarded!
They have a VERY suspect running game, and have yet to show any dominance, even against the likes of Montana State and North Texas!!
And did you know that a Wildcat running back as only caught 2 passes all year. Two catches, and low production numbers means that you have a problem with your backfield.
And now Kansas State is facing a VERY STOUT Louisville run defense?
Louisville has shut down the run. And now they face a State team that has NO power back. Those guys are short and under 200 pounds, and none of them seem to be options in the passing game.
So now it's on Freeman, right?
He has a tremendous QB rating, with no interceptions, BUT IT IS HARD NOT TO HAVE A GREAT RATING AGAINST THE LIKES OF North Texas and Montana State, right?
Also: I tracked his passing over that span, and he's only throwing short passes against loose coverage, so an interception is almost impossible. It's almost as if he was running a "two minute" offense for the entire game.
And that's not a compliment.
He was taking what those lame corners were giving him, that's all. For anyone to look beyond that is pure handicapping suicide
The environment changes tonight. Coverage will be tighter, and his running game will be totally contained, so look for a "hawk" on Freeman. He won't have the luxury of those short passes. And when you force K-State into 3rd down, they are notoriously bad. This is where the interceptions may begin to pile up.
His statistics are probably some of the most padded numbers in the game right now.
Does anyone remember the end of last season?
How about earlier in the year back in 2007?
They spanked Missori State 61-10, then went, on the road, to Texas, and got smashed 41-21.
At the end of the year 4 teams piled almost 200 points on them in their last 4 games, inclusing Fresno, which beat them 45-29 and Nebraska 73-31!!!!!!!!
In between those losses and tonights game are just 2 cupcake games, AND NOW THE PUBLIC IS THINKING THEY ARE A COMPLETELY NEW TEAM????
HMMMMMM?
I'm sure they are capable of staying with Louisville, but for them to be a 5 point favorite AT LOUISVILLE is a joke.
In normal circumstances, in a BCS matchup, Freeman is a 6.5 yard per pass guy, not the 11.7 you are seeing. He's also closer to a 55% completion, not 75%.
This isdea that K-State is explosive on offense is not REAL.
They recieved a lot of turnover help and GREAT return yardage to get field position, so the bloated scores and sweet stats are totally misleading.
Let's keep our wits about us.
We are getting supreme Value at anything above a field goal! K-state is overrated, and Louisville is completely underrated. I did not expect their Run defense to be so good, and even though we called an easy winner in the Kentucky/Cardinal game, I still undervalued the Louisville defense too much.
We have a live dog!
Tony George
Kansas St. -4.0 vs Louisville
BETTER DEFENSE WINS GAMES. Especially against Lousiville!! While Louisville did a nice job scoring over 50 points against Tenn. Tech , I have not forgotten the ticket I cashed against them with Kentucky as they were a fav at home in that game and got hammered 27-2. K State has a mobile strong armed QB in Freeman, and quite frankly, The Cards defense should allow him free reign to move the chains all night for K State. K State's defense is physical, which always gives the Cards fits when they play a physical team and Coach Ron Prince, who is on the hot seat at K State, has pointed towards this game all off-season, and after scoring over 60 points last week against Montana State, K State was surely not looking ahead and roll in here with a full head of steam and a better team, even on the road.
Play 1 Unit on Kansas State
JB Sports
Louisville +4