SPORTS ADVISORS
Northern Illinois (5-3, 5-2 ATS) at (16) Ball State (8-0, 6-1 ATS)
Ball State looks to keep its unbeaten record and BCS Bowl hopes intact when it hosts Northern Illinois in a key matchup between Mid-American Conference West Division rivals.
The Cardinals are one of six remaining undefeated teams in Division I-A, having won all eight games by double digits. That includes a 38-16 home rout of Eastern Michigan in their most recent contest on Oct. 25, though they came up short as a 27½-point home chalk after starting the season 6-0 ATS. Ball State, which has outgained all eight opponents this season, is averaging 37.5 points and 450 total yards per game while giving up 15.5 points and 351 total yards per contest.
Northern Illinois is riding its own winning streak, taking its last three in a row, all at home. That includes a 16-13 victory over Bowling Green on Oct. 25, though the Huskies failed to cash as a seven-point home chalk. During its three-game winning streak, Northern Illinois is outscoring opponents by 13 points per game (24-11) and outgaining them by more than 100 yards per outing (332-230).
These rivals have alternated wins and losses over the past four seasons, with the road team prevailing in each contest (2-2 ATS). Last year, Ball State went to Illinois and prevailed 27-21, but the Huskies got the cash as 9½-point home underdog. The ‘dog is 3-1 ATS in the last four years in this rivalry. Finally, Northern Illinois is 7-2 SU in the last nine clashes, 8-3 ATS in the last 11 and 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Ball State.
Despite their perfect record, the Cardinals sit in second place in the West Division at 4-0 (3-1 ATS), a half-game behind Central Michigan (5-0). Northern Illinois is in fourth place in the West despite a 4-1 league mark (3-2 ATS).
The Huskies have followed up a 7-0 ATS roll by going 1-2 ATS in the last three. Still, Northern Illinois is on positive pointspread streaks of 5-0 on the highway, 6-0 as an underdog, 5-0 in November, 5-2 in MAC action and 6-2 after a non-cover.
Despite its non-cover 10 days ago against Eastern Michigan, Ball State sports a bevy of ATS runs, including 27-11 overall, 10-4 in conference play, 8-3 in November, 4-1 after a bye, 8-2 after a non-cover and 5-1 on grass.
Both teams rely heavily on a strong rushing attack, with Ball State averaging 191 rushing ypg (5.3 yards per carry) and the Huskies rolling up 184.8 rushing ypg (4.5 ypc). However, Northern Illinois has been much better defending the run, holding opponents to 105.6 rushing ypg (3.7 ypc), while the Cardinals yield 156.8 rushing ypg (4.4 ypc).
For Northern Illinois, the under is on runs of 21-6-1 overall, 11-4 on the road, 19-7-2 in MAC play, 5-1-1 after a bye week, 7-0 against winning teams and 7-0 in November. Also, Ball State is riding under streaks of 9-4 overall, 5-2 against MAC teams, 5-0 in November, 6-0 after a bye and 6-2 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Toledo (2-6, 4-4 ATS) at Akron (4-4, 5-3 ATS)
Two days after its coach announced his resignation effective at season’s end, Toledo takes the field at Akron in a nationally televised MAC battle.
Toledo coach Tom Amstutz revealed Monday that he’s leaving his head-coaching post at the end of the season, as his Rockets have dropped 13 of their last 20 games since the start of the 2007 campaign. That includes a current 1-5 slump, with Toledo most recently falling to Central Michigan 24-23 at home on Oct. 25. On the bright side, the Rockets covered as a 3½-point home underdog in that contest, and they’re 4-3 ATS in their last seven outings.
Since tallying 54 points in a 55-54 overtime loss to Fresno State, the Rockets have scored a total of 59 points in their last five (11.8 per game).
Akron has alternated SU wins and losses in all eight of its games in 2008, most recently topping Eastern Michigan 42-35 as a 4½-point road favorite back on Oct. 18. Over their last three contests, the Zips have put up averages of 35 points and 405 total yards per game (204 passing, 201 rushing), but the defense has given up 33 points and 424 total yards per game during this stretch (219.7 passing, 204.3 rushing).
These teams have met just once since 1998, with Toledo rolling to a 35-20 victory as a 3½-point home underdog back in 2006. The Rockets are 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six series battles going back to 1994, with five of those being double-digit blowouts.
The Rockets are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games on the highway, but they have cashed in seven of their last 10 contests on artificial turf. Meanwhile, Akron is on ATS streaks 7-3-1 overall and 7-1 after a bye, but the Zips are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games inside the MAC and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight November contests.
For Toledo, the under is on runs of 4-0-1 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 5-0-1 in conference, 9-4-1 in November and 4-0-1 on turf. Conversely, Akron sports over streaks of 7-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-0 in league play, 8-2 on turf and 4-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TOLEDO
NBA
Detroit (3-0, 1-2 ATS) at Toronto (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
Allen Iverson, acquired in a blockbuster trade with the Nuggets on Monday, is expected to make his Pistons debut as Detroit visits Toronto in a battle of unbeaten teams.
The Pistons sent point guard Chauncey Billups and forward Antonio McDyess to Denver in exchange for Iverson on Monday afternoon, then went out and trounced the Bobcats 101-83 as a 3½-point road chalk. Detroit has reached triple digits in all three of its games, shooting 48.8 percent from the field as a team while averaging 106 points per contest.
Toronto is coming off a pair of four-point victories over the Warriors at home (112-108 in overtime on Friday) and the Bucks on the road (91-87 on Saturday). The Raptors failed to cash as a seven-point chalk against Golden State, but prevailed as a one-point underdog in Milwaukee. Like the Pistons, Toronto has gotten off to a solid start offensively, averaging 99.3 points per contest while shooting 47.7 percent from the field, including a whopping 54.5 percent from three-point land.
Detroit has won four of the last five meetings in this rivalry and is 5-1 ATS in the last six. Going back to April 2006, the visitor is on a 7-1 SU roll in this series (5-3 ATS), and the favorite has cashed in five consecutive meetings.
The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games dating to the 2008 playoffs and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when playing on one day of rest, but they’ve failed to cover in nine of their past 12 on Wednesdays. Meanwhile, Toronto is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 on Wednesday, but the squad is mired in an 11-23 ATS slump overall.
The over is 4-1 in Detroit’s last five games overall (3-0 this year), but the under is 11-5 in its last 16 on the highway. For Toronto, the under streaks include 5-1 overall, 5-1-1 at home, 5-0 against the Eastern Conference and 27-9-1 versus the Central Division. Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven clashes between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Chicago (2-2, 3-1 ATS) at Cleveland (2-2, 3-1 ATS)
Two Central Division rivals clash for the first time this season, as the Bulls pay a visit to the Quicken Loans Arena for a showdown against LeBron James and the Cavaliers.
Chicago has alternated SU wins and losses in its first four games, most recently falling 96-93 at Orlando on Monday. However, the Bulls did cash as an eight-point road underdog, improving to 5-1 ATS going back to the end of last season. Since tallying 108 points in a season-opening home rout of the Bucks, Chicago has been limited to 89.7 ppg in its last three.
The Cavaliers return home after splitting a quick two-game trip to New Orleans and Dallas, losing 104-92 to the Hornets on Saturday before crushing the Mavericks 100-81 as a four-point underdog on Monday. Cleveland is on an 8-1 ATS tear going back to last year’s Eastern Conference finals, including a 4-0 SU and ATS at home.
Despite an otherwise dismal 2007-08 season, Chicago did take the season series from Cleveland last year, going 3-1 SU and ATS while scoring at least 100 points in all three victories. The home team is 6-3 SU and ATS in the last nine matchups between these rivals and 13-5 ATS in the last 18. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 head-to-head battles.
The Bulls are off to an 0-2 start on the road (1-1 ATS), but they have cashed in four straight against Central Division foes and they’re 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after a SU defeat. Meanwhile, in addition to its ongoing ATS streaks of 8-1 overall and 4-0 at home, Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games when playing on one day of rest and 7-0 ATS in its last seven against the Eastern Conference. However, LeBron James and Co. have failed to cash in five straight against divisional rivals.
Chicago sports under streaks of 9-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-0 when going on one day of rest and 8-2 against the Eastern Conference. Also, the Cavs are on under runs of 16-7 overall, 20-6 at home, 15-6 against the East and 5-2 in divisional contests. Lastly, the under is 6-2 in the last eight Bulls-Cavaliers battles at Quicken Loans Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
Atlanta (2-0 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
The Hawks, who have started off a season with consecutive victories for the first time this decade, figure to have a tough time making it three in a row when they visit the undefeated Hornets.
Atlanta is 2-0 for the first time since 1998 and hasn’t started a season with three straight victories since winning its first 11 in a row the year prior. The Hawks tipped off with a 99-85 upset of Orlando as an eight-point underdog a week ago and followed that with Saturday’s 95-88 win over the 76ers as a 2½-point favorite. Defense has carried the team so far, holding the Magic and Sixers to a combined 39 percent shooting (24.4 percent from three-point range).
The Hornets have put up 108, 108 and 104 points in their first three games, including a pair of double-digit routs of the Suns (108-95 on the road) and Cavaliers (104-92 at home) in the last two. New Orleans, which is seeking its second consecutive 4-0 start to a season, is shooting 48.3 percent from the field while making exactly half of its three-point tries.
The Hornets have swept the season series from Atlanta the last two years, going 4-0 ATS in the process (3-0 ATS as a favorite). In the two meetings in New Orleans last year, the Hornets prevailed 107-100 as a 6½-point favorite and 116-101 as an 8½-point chalk. The SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven overall going back to last year’s first-round playoff loss to Boston. Otherwise, though, the Hawks are mired in ATS slumps of 1-5 on the road, 1-5 against the Southwest Division and 5-11 on Wednesdays. As for the Hornets, they sport a bunch of positive pointspread streaks, including 49-24 at home, 39-19-3 versus the Eastern Conference, 6-2-1 against the Southeast Division and 37-16-1 on Wednesdays.
The over is on runs of 9-3 for the Hawks on Wednesdays, 5-1 for the Hawks against the Western Conference, 11-5 for the Hawks after a SU win, 10-2-1 for New Orleans against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 for New Orleans in Wednesday contests. Finally, the last five meetings between these teams on the Hornets’ home floor have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Wild Bill
Ball St/No Illinois Over 47 (5 units)
Toledo/Akron Over 54 1/2 (5 units)
JIM FEIST
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS at NEW YORK KNICKS
TAKE OVER
Reason: Larry Brown returns to MSG tonight with his new Bobcats team as he faces a team he had a rough going with as head coach. While Brown would like to forget his days in New York, the Knicks would like to forget the last few games. After opening with a nice win over the Heat, 120-115, the Knicks have suffered two straight setbacks. They have given up 115, 116 and 94 points thus far. And despite their opening game offensive outburst, the last two games have been duds. Larry Brown is trying to turn around a Bobcats team that had its problems last year, especially on the defensive boards where they were third worst in the NBA. Brown has been emphasizing over and over this year to be aggressive on the boards and it's helped a bit as they are about even so far with their opponents off the glass. Neither teams plays a lot of defense though and we expect that to continue tonight. Take the over here as both teams should get over 100 quite easily.
DAVE COKIN
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES at SACRAMENTO KINGS
TAKE MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
History is on the side of the Kings tonight as they play host to Memphis. Sacramento has won 22 of the last 23 meetings at home against the Grizzlies. But it's the road team that's looking like the better team in the early going. Memphis seems improved to some extent, while the Kings have been terrible. The offense is limited and the Kings are treating defense like it's against the law to play any. Off the lengthy trip to start the season, I don't see Sacramento in a sharp spot tonight, and I'm going to try the Grizzlies plus the points.
Jimmy The Moose
Edmonton Oilers at Columbus Blue Jackets
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers come into this one having won two straight after losing 5 in a row. Edmonton has won their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Oilers aren't playing like they should but they will be facing a Columbus team that is really struggling. The Blue Jackets have lost two straight and 5 of their last 6 games. Columbus has lost 5 of their last 7 home games. The Blue Jackets are 5-18-3 in the last 26 meetings between the clubs. The Oilers are 7-2-3 in their last 12 trips to Columbus. Play on the Edmonton Oilers -.
Big Al McMordie
San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play:San Antonio Spurs -3.5
The Spurs are an awful (for them) 0-3 to start the season, and I've talked often about how SuperManu Ginobili is one of the best, and most valuable players in the league -- right up there with Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant. It's strange, though, that the oddsmakers don't recognize that, and don't lower San Antonio's power rating the appropriate amount when he's sidelined. That, more than anything else, explains the Spurs poor 4-16 ATS run without the Argentine superstar on the court. Indeed, San Antonio has been able to overcome injuries to Duncan or Tony Parker, but not Ginobili. However, I'm NOT going to go against the Spurs on Wednesday Night. They'll be taking on a very beatable team in the T-Wolves, and this game is a step down in class after playing Phoenix, Portland and Dallas to open the season. The Spurs actually only played one bad game -- the one last night -- and could've defeated Portland had Michael Finley's 8-foot sideline jumper found the bottom of the net. Look for San Antonio's championship mettle to be the difference tonight. Lay the small number with the Spurs.
Bobby Maxwell
Phoenix at INDIANA +3'
Phoenix has won six straight against the Pacers but these two played a couple of thrilling games last year and Indiana cashed in both games. This year they get the Suns coming in on a back-to-back night and will take advantage of the older legs of the Suns.
Phoenix went to New Jersey and blew out the Suns on Tuesday and now travel over to Indianapolis to play the Pacers. Last year in Indiana the Suns got a 121-117 win but failed to cash as six-point favorites. Then in Phoenix a month later the Suns won a 129-122 OT win, failing as 11 1/2-point chalk at home.
The Pacers have a lineup that can get up and down the court and cause some pain to the Suns with PG T.J. Ford and forward Danny Granger. These guys are stars and will show it against some tired legs in the Suns rotation.
Indiana is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Pacers are also 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Pacific Division. Meanwhile the Suns are on ATS slides of 2-5 against the Eastern Conference and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven when playing the second night of a back-to-back. And in this rivalry, the home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
We'll take the Pacers at home in this one.
2♦ INDIANA
Nostradamus
Char/NY Over 203
Boston -8.5
Lakers -15
Columbus -110
Tom Freese
Memphis at Sacramento
Memphis is 10-4 ATS vs. losing teams and they are 9-4 ATS with one day of rest. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS on Wednesday and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games overall. Sacramento is 2-6 ATS off a double digit loss and they are 0-4 ATS off a Straight Up loss. The Kings are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games overall are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games vs. the Grizzlies. PLAY ON MEMPHIS +
Vegas Experts
Northern Illinois at Ball State
Laying points with these non-BCS unbeatens is simply not the way to go this time of year, particularly when the pointspread exceedes a touchdown. We saw evidence of that last Saturday with Arkansas' outright win over Tulsa and New Mexico nearly doing the same to Utah. NIU is a dangerous opponent whose three losses this season have come by a combined 11 points, and two of those were to BCS schools. The Huskies are 6-2 ATS vs. ranked teams and the visitor has won 6 of 8 in this H2H series.
Play on: Northern Illinois
LT Profits
Memphis Grizzlies +3.5
This is actually the home opener for the Sacramento Kings after beginning the year with a four-game road trip, but we are not convinced that being home will be enough for them to finally crack the win column here vs. the Memphis Grizzlies.
After all, their defense is non-existent, as they are surrendering a hideous 111.8 points per game, and they have allowed each of their last two opponents to crack the 120-point mark.
Also, while the Kings were a good 26-15 straight up at home last year, they only outscored their home opponents by an average of +2.4 points per game, mainly due to a defense that allowed 102.0 points per game. Furthermore, that was with a better team than this club.
Now the Grizzlies are not world-beaters by any means, but they have managed to go 2-2 thus far with upset wins over the Orlando Magic and the Golden State Warriors. Yes, both of those wins came at home, but Memphis was a perfect 4-0 against the spread in four meetings with the Kings last season, with two of the covers coming here in Sacramento.
In fact, the Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings, including3-0 ATS in this building, and given the struggles of the Kings defense thus far, we look for Memphis to extend that streak.
Pick: Grizzlies +3.5
DUNKEL
Chicago at Cleveland
The Cavs return home after a win in Dallas and look to build on their 21-16 ATS record against division opponents. Cleveland is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-8).
Game 501-502: Detroit at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 121.538; Toronto 121.229
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 190
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 503-504: Phoenix at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 123.958; Indiana 123.704
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4); Under
Game 505-506: Philadelphia at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 115.522; Miami 114.330
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 186 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 507-508: Charlotte at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 114.609; New York 116.609
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+5); Over
Game 509-510: Boston at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 122.520; Oklahoma City 115.485
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 7; 176
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 9; 181 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+9); Under
Game 511-512: Atlanta at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.759; New Orleans 128.075
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 12 1/2; 181
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 513-514: Chicago at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 113.817; Cleveland 126.801
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 13; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 8; 186
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-8); Under
Game 515-516: San Antonio at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.721; Minnesota 116.260
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 177
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 183
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4); Under
Game 517-518: Washington at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 111.849; Milwaukee 114.857
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3; 190
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 519-520: Portland at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 115.991; Utah 129.668
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 13 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A;
Game 521-522: Memphis at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 110.013; Sacramento 116.083
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 6; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3 1/2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-3 1/2); Over
Game 523-524: Denver at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 118.936; Golden State 119.240
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 197
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 525-526: LA Clippers at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 104.503; LA Lakers 126.154
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 21 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 15; 193
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-15); Over
NHL
Anaheim at Los Angeles
The Oilers bring a two-game road winning streak into Columbus to face a Blue Jackets team that has lost five of its last six. Edmonton is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Oilers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-110).
Game 1-2: Tampa Bay at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.640; New Jersey 11.940
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 3-4: Edmonton at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 12.353; Columbus 11.129
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-110); Under
Game 5-6: St. Louis at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.553; Anaheim 11.177
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+165); Under
NCAAF
Northern Illinois at Ball State
The unbeaten Cardinals look to remain in contention for a BCS bowl and build on their 6-2 ATS mark over the last three seasons as a favorite between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Ball State is the pick (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: Ball State (-9 1/2).
Game 103-104: Northern Illinois at Ball State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 78.993; Ball State 95.241
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 16; 50
Vegas Line: Ball State by 9 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (-9 1/2); Over
Game 105-106: Toledo at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 71.817; Akron 80.101
Dunkel Line: Akron by 8; 58
Vegas Line: Akron by 6 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-6 1/2); Over
Kevin O’Neill
Northern Illinois (+10) over Ball State
Odd Wednesday night game, but once baseball ends there’s a lot of midweek games in a conference desperate for exposure. Northern Illinois better get used to it. The Huskies are playing four straight games on either Tuesday or Wednesday nights. And the first one is the toughest, as NIU takes on the top team in the league, the Ball State Cardinals. Undefeated, with wins over Navy and Indiana, Ball State has a high-powered passing attack led by Nate Davis. Davis is logging 66% completions, a TD/INT ratio of 15/5, and 8.9 yards per pass attempt. He has been bothered by the career-ending injury to top target Dante Love only slightly. Davis is obviously outstanding. But this is no walkover for Ball State. Northern Illinois is a fine three-loss team, with competitive losses at Minnesota, at Western Michigan, and at Tennessee, all by 4 or less, all spreadcovering defeats. Offering a lot of deception, multiple formations, and a varied attack make NIU difficult to defend. In their game-clinching drive against Bowling Green, the Huskies operated out of five different formations. The various quarterbacks they’ve had to use this season, and the different styles of those quarterbacks, means that opponents have to prepare for plenty of different looks. But the key to this selection is Northern Illinois’ pass defense. With a QB as accomplished as Davis, you have to be able to slow down the pass. The Huskies are uniquely qualified to do that. NIU has what is clearly the best pass defense in the conference. They allow only 5.4 yards per pass attempt, 6 interceptions and only 7 touchdown passes, all outstanding numbers. In conference play it drops to 4.8 yards per pass attempt. They are easily the best pass defense that Davis has faced, as Ball State’s two top non-conference opponents both have poor pass defenses, with Navy allowing 8.5 yards per attempt and Indiana permitting 8.0. Will the quality of this defense mean that it’s finally time for the loss of his top target to come into play? When you look at results in conference, these opponents are pretty equal. Northern Illinois has close losses against better opponents (Minnesota and Tennessee) than anyone Ball State has played. These teams have blown out both mutual opponents. Ball State has beaten Toledo 31-0 and Eastern Michigan 38-16. It was Northern Illinois over Toledo 38-7 and Eastern Michigan 37-0. You would expect that in the same conference teams would have more than two mutual opponents by now, but Toledo and EMU is all there is. Jerry Kill, the first year Northern Illinois coach was known for pulling off upsets over more talented teams in 1-AA, and is 3-0 to the number as an underdog here. From what we know about him and what he’s showing, it would be no surprise if Kill were coaching in the Big 10 or Big 12 in a few years. Northern Illinois hangs around for a long time. Ball State by only 4
Bryan Leonard
LA Clippers (1H) @ Los Angeles Lakers (1H)
PICK: LA Clippers (1H)
The Clippers have been a team that is very easy to handicap thus far this season. They have the talent but they haven't gotten used to playing together as a team. The offseason changes have had a tremendous effect on this team. The Clippers are able to play well early on in a feeling out sort of way but when the intensity tightens late in the game they just don't have enough time together to mesh as a one unit. In four games this season the Clippers have outscored the opposition by combined 10 points in the first quarter. At halftime they have had a two point edge. But in the second half they have just fallen apart. They were outscored by 23 vs the Lakers, 18 by Denver, 22 by Utah in the first meeting and 15 by the Jazz in the second meeting.Now the Clippers get to face the Lakers for the second time after their embarrassing 38 point loss in the season opener. While we don't want to play on this late fading team for the entire game there is value playing them plus the points in the first quarter and first half. The Lakers have started the season impressively with wins by margins of 20, 38 and 7 points. They haven't played since Saturday against the Nuggets and they don't play again until facing Houston on Sunday. That means this is their only game in a seven day span. If you are a multi-millionaire player living in Los Angeles would you be inspired to play one game in seven days against a team you beat by 38 points just last week? Look for the Lakers to come out flat and the Clippers to stay competitive early on. Play the Clippers plus the points in the first quarter and first half.
John Ryan
Game: Toledo at Akron
Prediction: Toledo
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Toledo ? AiS shows a 72% probability that Toledo will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. AiS also projects a 90% probability that Toledo will gain a MINIMUM of 200 yards passing. Note that Akron is just 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 39-9 ATS for 81% since 1997. Play against any team that is a good offensive team gaining 390 to 440 YPG and is now facing a poor offensive team gaining 280 to 330 YPG and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. Akron is in a very weak role noting they are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Conversely, Toledo in an exceptional role noting they are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Take Toledo.