Wunderdog
Milwaukee at Utah
Pick: Milwaukee +10.5
The Jazz are burning up the court again at home off to a 5-0 start. The Bucks are off a dismal season that saw them finish 3-18 and went through a lot of injuries. They are a better team this year falling under the radar. The Bucks have managed a 3-0-1 ATS mark as a dog of nine or more and have been 5-0-1 ATS in their last six on the road. Their five wins on the season nearly doubles their win total in their last 21 a year ago, so definitely an under-valued team right now. Utah may not be into this one as they have a score to settle with the Spurs who are up next, after their final meeting last year where the Jazz were beaten to a pulp by San Antonio by 29. The Jazz may be winning, but not getting the money, as they have been just 2-5 ATS in their last seven. I like the under-valued Bucks who are flying under the radar right to the cash window.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +13.5
Odds makers have given the Kings too many points against a Hornets team that is yet to play as well as it did a season ago. In fact, New Orleans has lost 4 of its last 6 SU and 5 of 6 ATS. We'll play against any team ( NEW ORLEANS ) that is an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after 3 straight games where both teams scored 95 points or less. This system is an incredible 24-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. New Orleans wins, but not by this many.
Erik Scheponik
Ball State vs. Central Michigan
Play: Central Michigan +6.5
Always worth giving a winning underdog a look in their last home game of the season, especially one that is a gaudy 22-2 in their last 24 conference games. Because of their B2B league titles, CMU has taken opponents' best punch all season, but yet still brings the same undefeated conference record into this one as the Cardinal. They are also more big game-tested over the last couple of seasons, and have played the tougher schedule this season. Undefeated Road favorites from Game 10 on are only 9-24 $ Vs. an opponent off of a SU/ATS win and that could spell trouble for the Cardinals here. BSU's Nate Davis gets all the publicity, and rightfully so, but the Chippewas Dan Lefevour is one of the nation's top dual threat signal callers. BSU by only 2
Larry Ness
Philadelphia 76ers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
PICK: Philadelphia 76ers -3.5
Philly made a big second-half surge last year and by keeping Iquodala and signing Brand away from the Clippers, many felt the 76rers (myself included) would surely be back in the postseason this year. However, Philly stumbled out of the blocks 2-5 with Brand (15.5-10.2) averaging almost five points less than his career average of 20.2 PPG and Iquodala (12.4-6.6-5.1) not scoring nearly as well has he has the previous two seasons. Iquodala's overall play has been fine but he's just not making his shots, shooting just 37.8 percent. However, the Sixers have won three straight, while shooting 45.4 percent from the floor (up from 37.9 during a three-game slide from Nov 5-11). The Sixers are the NBA's leading rebounding team with 49.2 per game, as center Samuel Dalembert (7.1-9.8) is one of the league's most underrated players and Brand's average of 10.3 is ninth in the NBA. Miller (15.0-5.6 APG) is still a quality PG plus reserves Williams (9.2) and Green 98.20 provide solid depth in the backcourt. The real surprise this year has been second-year small forward, Thaddeus Young. Young averaged 8.2-5.5 last year in 21 minutes but is getting 33 MPG this year and is averaging 16.3-5.5! The T-wolves were a joke last year after dumping Garnett before the season began, finishing at 22-60. Things don't figure to be much better this year, as they enter on an eight-game losing streak (4-4 ATS), which ties the Thunder for the longest active streak in the NBA. Jefferson (22.3-10.6) is having another excellent season but frontcourt players like Gomes (9.0-3.8) and Smith (7.4-3.1) will never be much more than average plus rookieforward Kevin Love (8.8-6.6) is (in my opinion) headed for a career of mediocrity (at best). The T-wolves' eight consecutive losses have been close (by an average margin of 5.9 PPG) but a similar margin of defeat tonight would not give them a cover here. Take the Sixers.
Ted Sevransky
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs
PICK: Under 180.5
Without Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili in the lineup, the San Antonio Spurs have done exactly what we would expect them to do – play defense, slow down the pace, and rely on halfcourt execution during crunch time to earn tight victories in low scoring games. The numbers don’t lie – since Parker went down, the Spurs are 6-0 to the Under. They haven’t allowed 90 points to any of their opponents in their last five ballgames, and they’ve exceeded 90 themselves only once during this run of Unders.
There’s absolutely no reason to expect anything different from San Antonio tonight. This is not an explosive offensive team by any stretch of the imagination. They get virtually nothing in transition, slowing down the game at every opportunity. And it’s certainly not like, even when healthy, the Nuggets have been able to push the pace against the Spurs – we saw an 80-77 final between these two teams last year, exactly the type of ugly, slowdown, defensive minded approach that I expect to see tonight.
Denver played a wild shootout with the Bucks last night, resulting in a 114-105 victory. It’s surely worth noting that the game featured Milwaukee hitting 50% from the three point line, while the Nuggets made a whopping 40 free throw attempts – it’s not like the game was played at a breakneck pace. And very quietly, since Chauncey Billups arrived from Detroit, the Nuggets have picked up their own defensive intensity, holding three of their last five opponents to 85 points or less. Look for a defensive struggle this evening, as this game stays well Under the total. 2* Take the Under.
Johnny Guild
Ball State Cardinals at Central Michigan Chippewas
Both offenses will light up the scoreboard. Take the home conference dog to cover the spread and possibly win outright against the Cardinals in tonight's clash. Central Michigan has won 18 of its past 20 MAC games and six of the last ten versus Ball State, going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Michigan Chippewas +7
Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs
Denver is playing strong defense. The Nuggets have limited four of its last six challengers to 90 points or less and San Antonio has step-up its defensive play. Expect a low scoring clash tonight at the AT&T Center. The total has gone ‘under’ in 10 of the last 12 meetings, 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in San Antonio.
Under -180
Butler Bulldogs -14
South Florida Bulls +7
Gina
Philadelphia 76ers at Minnesota Timberwolves
The struggling Timberwolves have dropped eight straight, Meanwhile the 76ers will try to win its fourth straight game. Go with Philadelphia. The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.
Philadelphia 76ers -3
Jeff Benton
Sorry, but I’m not exactly impressed by San Antonio’s current three-game winning streak, even if the last two wins came on the road. The Spurs beat the Rockets, Kings and Clippers by a total of seven points, needing fourth-quarter rallies to win two of those games. Prior to those three shaky upset wins, San Antonio – which is still without the services of star guards Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili – had started out 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS, with one of those victories being a double-overtime triumph over the lowly TWolves (and Parker played in that one).
Tonight, the Spurs host the smoking-hot Nuggets, who have turned into a completely different team since shipping Allen Iverson to Detroit and getting Chauncey Billups in return. With Billups in the lineup, Denver is 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS, and the one defeat was excusable (a 110-99 loss at Cleveland, which is playing the best basketball in the NBA right now).
Last year, when Ginobili and Parker were in the lineup, the Nuggets held their own against San Antonio, splitting the four meetings while going 3-1 ATS. And even though Denver played at home last night while San Antonio has been idle since Monday, that doesn’t worry me because the Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in back-to-back situations, including 2-0 ATS this year. That includes a 94-85 win at Boston as a 10-point underdog the night after losing to the Cavs!
Easy call here, as the Nuggets continue their stellar play and take down the depleted Spurs, with Billups leading the charge against a second-string San Antonio backcourt.
4♦ DENVER NUGGETS
Jake Timlin
Your Wednesday selection is Wake Forest.
No doubt a big number, but given how good Wake Forest is this year and playing at home I see a major blowout tonight in Winston-Salem. I mean given that Wake Forest returns everyone from a year ago as they welcome three talented freshmen the Demon Deacons are going to be a strong team this season. Well thanks to their 46 point win to open the season Wake Forest showed just home good they will be this season as I look for the Demon Deacons to follow up their first win with another blowout win tonight against a NC Wilmington team that through their first two games have showed they don’t know how to play defense by allowing 98 ppg. So looking for Wake Forest to score at will tonight and to play solid defense for the Demon Deacons to roll in a bigger then expect blowout. All Wake Forest minus the home points.
Drew Gordon
Washington +8 at ATLANTA
Its no secret Atlanta is not playing well, losers of 4 straight (1-3 ATS). A return home may be just what they need to get back on track, but that doesn't mean they'll be able to cover, especially when you consider the match ups and injuries.
First off, let's talk match ups, as Jamison and Butler anchor this Wiz attack, and they'll have little trouble with Hawks forwards Williams and Pachulia, both of which are marginal defenders. When it comes to the backcourt, you've got to like Wiz G Nick Young, who's really picked it up in place of Gilbert Arenas. He's not as good as Joe Johnson, but he's quicker, and will (to some degree) equalize Johnson with his own scoring.
Second and probably most important, is the status of Al Horford, who looked very much on his way to a breakout season, before hurting his ankle. He's listed as doubtful for this contest, and without him AND Josh Smith, this Hawks team find itself extremely short-handed in this one.
Finally, two things to consider: A. the Wizards are 6-2 ATS over their last 8 meetings in Atlanta, so don't underestimate the road team And B. Over their last 5 games, the Hawks are allowing a whopping 111 ppg on 48% shooting! Guys, how can you possibly lay this many with Atlanta when they're playing ZERO defense right now? In the end, the Hawks may win, but the Wizards grab the cash Wednesday!
Take Washington plus the points over Atlanta in this NBA match up.
3♦ WASHINGTON
Denver -2 at SAN ANTONIO
Hard to believe we find the Spurs as home dogs against the Nuggets, but all factors considered, its clear the Nuggets are the play here. Injuries to Parker and Ginobili have decimated this Spurs squad, and don't be fooled by their 3 straight wins, because 2 of those 3 came against NBA doormats Kings and Clippers.
Denver on the other hand, is playing great basketball, winners of 6 of their last 7 games, and really adapting to new PG Chauncey Billups. While Iverson was a great combo guard, he's still not a great point guard, and that was a big issue with so many shooters on one team. With Billups willing to "pass-first" this Denver team should continue to fire on all cylinders tonight.
One problem the Nuggets had all last season was their lackadasical play on the defensive end, but they've shored up their defense rather well in the early going, allowing 92 ppg over their last 5 games. With San Antonio struggling to score points (84 ppg L5), Denver's newfound love of defense is the key to them winning this game.
Finally, two things to consider: A. the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS at home this season. While on the flip side, Denver is coming off an impressive outright win at Boston (as a 10-point road dog) in their last road game! And B. Don't think the Nuggets aren't treating this game as a big stepping stone, beating the Spurs, no matter how short-handed, is still a big deal for Denver, and I say they play accordingly. In the end, the Nuggets kick a wounded Spurs team while their down Wednesday night!
Take Denver over San Antonio in this NBA match up.
2♦ DENVER
Chris Jordan
Cleveland +3' at DETROIT
What should make for a solid Central Division showdown, I’m going to call for a nip and tuck fourth quarter and even believe this could come down to the last one holding the ball. That being said, I like the points in this one, as Cleveland’s last loss was on Nov. 1 in New Orleans and LeBron James is off to the best start of his pro career.
It’s hard to ignore the fact the Cavaliers’ eight-game win streak, it really is. I know Cleveland has lost nine of its last 11 regular season games against Detroit – including three in a row at The Palace. But that doesn’t take away from the big show, as the Cavaliers were able to beat the Pistons in the Conference Finals two seasons ago.
And because the Pistons are the four-time Central Division champs, this is a game James will want badly, making a statement for this team and its legitimate run at the division title.
The Pistons are in off a four-game road trip that ended with a 104-86 loss at Phoenix on Sunday. And since they’re mired in ATS skids of 2-5 against intra-conference foes and 0-4 at home, I think the dog is a viable option.
Cleveland is on ATS runs of 9-3 in this series, 5-2 in Motown, 6-1 on the road and 10-2 against the Eastern Conference. Grab the points with this live dog tonight.
1♦ CAVALIERS
UNC Wilmington +18 at WAKE FOREST
Just a couple years back the Seahawks took on a nationally ranked Tennessee team in the Preseason NIT. After trailing by two at intermission, they melted under Tennessee’s full-court press and lost by 12. Fast forward two years later, and get this, there are players on this squad that remain in uniform and have plenty of experience playing at UNC Wilmington and under coach Benny Moss.
I know Wake Forest is nationally ranked, and I know this is about as difficult a game they could ask for in the Lawrence Joel Coliseum ... but something tells me the ‘Hawks are not going to just fly by too easily. Not when this is Carolina-entrenched game, and experienced Wilmington has a chance to make a statement.
The ‘Hawks have already managed to dispatch mid-majors Appalachian State and Troy, not exactly the type of competition awaiting them in Winston-Salem. But you have to understand something in college basketball, when it comes to mid-majors, they tend to play to the level of competition. And since they know the Deacons will make their share of runs tonight, we’re going to see Wilmington maintain composure and execute a game plan of not getting rattled in an unfriendly environment.
And how do you do that against a front line that is listed at 7-foot, 6-9 and 6-9? By mixing up the defenses to make it uncomfortable for Wake Forest’s big tress, and by sending four or five players to the defensive boards to slow down the paint party.
Finally, look for an inside-outside game to keep us within striking distance of double-digit territory, as the Seahawks will penetrate and kick out, make the extra pass, and get solid open looks from the perimeter. Then it’s a matter of knocking treys down, something I’m confident will happen.
Take the points in this one.
1♦ UNC WILMINGTON