Wednesday Service Plays

Brandon Lang

WEDNESDAY

5 DIME
Southern Miss

Dr.vegas

Premium Line for Wednesday, October 3

CFB
Rice +20.5 over Southern Miss
Rice vs Southern Miss UNDER 54.5

Michael Cannon Wednesday's Plays:

5 Dime – RICE

Take the points with Rice tonight when they travel to take on Southern Miss.

I know this isn’t a very strong Rice team, but they did reel off six-straight wins at the end of the 2006 season to earn a rare postseason bowl berth. They are the more rested team here, having last played September 22.

Southern Miss enters this game on the heels of a 38-16 loss at Boise State on Friday and they will be without starting quarterback Jeremy Young, who is out with an injured ankle. To make matters worse, senior backup Stephen Reaves is doubtful for tonight’s game which would leave the Golden Eagles with redshirt freshman Martevious Young to direct the offense.

Being a conference game and the fact Southern Miss is hurting at quarterback, Rice should come into this game fired up and ready to play.

The Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as Conference USA underdogs of 14 or more points.

Southern Miss won’t get enough big plays from the quarterback position to cover this big number.

Take Rice plus the points as they stay within the number tonight.

Wolkosky Milan

10* So MISS -20½
10* RICE/SoMISS OVER 54½

Totals 4 u

TOP PLAY Rice OVER 54-

ATS Financial Package

3 Units Over 54......Rice/S.Miss

GOLDSHEET

*SOUTHERN MISS 45 - Rice 17—CUSA sources have been alerting us to the red flags surrounding Rice’s program since the Owls opened their season with a loss vs. lower-echelon Nicholls State, and nothing has happened since to change their minds. The offense, in particular, continues to misfire for new HC David Bailiff, with jr. QB Chase Clement struggling to rediscover his sophomore form that placed him on the Davey O’Brien Award “watch list" at the beginning of the campaign. He’s tossed 7 picks and only 3 TDs in the first 4 games, hampered further by a reshuffled OL that has provided spotty protection (allowing 14 sacks the past 3 games) and a depleted WR corps that’s been minus targets Joel Armstrong and Corbin Smiter. Combined with an inability to run the football (only 1.8 ypg) in Bailiff’s imbalanced version of the spread, the results have been predictable. Of course, USM has its own concerns, with QB Jeremy Young unlikely to make the post due to a high ankle sprain suffered in last Thursday’s loss at Boise State. But Eagle HC Jeff Bower has confidence in sr. southpaw backup Stephen Reaves, a Michigan State transfer who saw action in 8 games last season, as well as taking most of the 2nd half snaps at Boise. And with hard-charging RB Damion Fletcher providing a real infantry diversion, Reaves should be able to cope with a bullet-ridden Rice “D” that’s allowed 53 ppg and nearly 600 ypg its last 3 outings. Lay it, pal. CABLE TV—ESPN2

Dr. Bob

2 Star Selection
**SOUTHERN MISS (-20.5) 43 Rice 13

05:00 PM Pacific, 03-Oct-07

Southern Miss was embarrassed on national TV last Thursday night in Boise, but I doubt head coach Jeff Bower will let that happen again. Bower has been the head coach at Southern Miss for 17 years and his teams are 30-8-1 ATS in the next game after losing by 10 points or more, including 12-1 ATS recently and 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of 14 points or more. Bower’s teams are also 8-2 ATS in all games as a home favorite of 18 points or more with the two spread losses coming by a combined 3 points. The Eagles will be without starting quarterback Jeremy Young for a few weeks and backup Stephen Reaves was hurt in practice this week so red-shirt freshman Martevious Young will get his first action. M-Young out played Stephen Reaves in the off-season and was 10 of 13 passing for 155 yards in the final scrimmage before the season started, so he’s probably no worse than Reaves would have been. Reaves rates at 0.7 yppp worse than average over his career, going back to his days at Michigan State, and I’ll assume Martevious Young will be about the same although some local sources think Young will be better than Reaves would have been. The Rice defense is horrible (6.9 yards per play allowed to teams that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team) so Young should have a good outing and star running back Damion Fletcher (387 yards in 4 games at 5.0 ypr) will get the ball a lot against a sub-par Rice defensive front. The Owls are not nearly as good offensively this season under first year coach David Bailiff as they were last season under innovative coach Todd Graham, as Rice has managed just 4.1 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack). Southern Miss was not good defensively last week in Boise and they rate at 0.4 yppl worse than average for the season, but the Eagles should be able to handle the Rice attack. My math model would have favored the Eagles by 27 ½ points with starter Jeremy Young at quarterback and the math still favors Southern Miss by 23 ½ points with Martevious Young at quarterback based on conservative assumptions. The Eagles apply to a very good 53-15-2 ATS big home favorite bounce-back situation tonight in addition to their good team trends under Bower. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less.

Wunderdog

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Game: Rice at Southern Mississippi (Wednesday 10/03 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Southern Mississippi -20.5

Southern Miss will be at home tonight for the first time against a D-1A opponent. Rice will enter having allowed 53 points per game in their three D-1 games. With just six returning starters on defense, this team has gotten worse compared to last years' squad that allowed 33 ppg. Rice had a winning record last year even though they were outgained. Southern Miss has a veteran QB and WR and should be able to put up a ton of points vs. a defense that is allowing nearly 500 yards per game. Under head coach Jeff Bower, S. Miss is 10-1 ATS at home vs. poor defensive teams (those allowing 425+ yards per game). The Eagles return the most players they have in a long time on defense with 8. The last time they did that, they allowed under 15 ppg. This is the first real home game, so they will certainly play with energy after three straight on the road. They should be able to name their score here, as they dominate both sides of the ball. The Eagles are 21-12 ATS in their last 33 as a favorite while the Owls are just 5-9 ATS the past three years as a road underdog. Southern Miss is coming off a pasting at the hands of Boise State. But that's a good thing here as the Eagles are 12-4 ATS under Bower following a blowout loss of 17+ points.

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): RICE vs SO MISSISSIPPI

Play: RICE +21 ( ALWAYS BUY THE HOOK)

Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: RICE +21 ( ALWAYS BUY THE HOOK). S. Miss playing with their 3rd string QB. Same situation as last might's matchup with the home team playing on short rest and coming from a very long road trip from Boise St. Rice is not a good team but just like last night in conference USA, we are looking at conference foes that know each other well. Look for S. Miss to protect their 3rd string qb by running the ball and why shouldn't they as Rice is giving up 150 yards per game on the ground. This should eat up time and give us some long scoring drives. This will give Rice a great chance to stay within the ATS line.