SPORTS ADVISORS
Boston College (3-1, 2-1 ATS) vs. (11) Purdue (4-0, 3-0 ATS)
(at New York)
Purdue guns for its first 5-0 start in five years when it takes on Boston College in the semifinals of the Preseason NIT at Madison Square Garden.
The Boilermakers, who haven’t been 5-0 since 2003-04, have won all four of their games by at least 20 points, including Saturday’s 66-46 rout of Coppin State in a non-lined game. Purdue advanced to New York with easy home wins over Eastern Michigan (87-58) and Loyola-Chicago (78-46), covering as a double-digit chalk in both games.
Boston College started the season with three blowout victories, but the Eagles tasted defeat for the first time in Saturday’s 53-50 setback to Saint Louis as a 1½-point road favorite. B.C. got outrebounded 43-32 in the loss after beating its first three opponents on the glass by an average of 11.3 rebounds per contest.
Purdue is getting it done with defense, giving up just 50 points per game and 33 percent shooting this year. However, Boston College has been strong on the offensive end this season, putting up 75.5 ppg on 45.7 percent shooting.
The only other time these schools met on the hardwood was in a preseason tournament in 1978, with Purdue prevailing 82-54.
The Boilermakers are on an 18-4-1 ATS tear since early January, including 12-2 ATS as a favorite, and they’re 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 after a SU win. However, they’re in pointspread slumps of 3-7 against the ACC and 18-37-3 on Wednesdays. Meanwhile, the Eagles are on ATS runs of 9-3 at neutral sites and 5-1 versus the Big Ten, but they’ve failed to cover in five of their last seven on Wednesday.
The over is 4-1 in Purdue’s last five lined games overall, 4-0 in its last four at neutral sites and 6-2 in its past eight lined non-conference games, but the under is 4-1 in its last five against the ACC. Boston College has topped the total in seven of its last 10 non-conference affairs and five of its last seven on Wednesday, but the under is 4-1 in its last five at neutral venues.
The winner of this contest faces the winner of Oklahoma-UAB in Friday’s tournament championship game.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE
UAB (4-0, 3-1 ATS) vs. (12) Oklahoma (4-0, 1-1 ATS)
(at New York)
Player of the year candidate Blake Griffin leads unbeaten Oklahoma against UAB in a battle of 4-0 squads in the semifinals of the Preseason NIT at Madison Square Garden.
Griffin saved the Sooners from an embarrassing home loss to Gardner-Webb on Sunday, pouring in career highs of 35 points and 21 rebounds in an 80-76 non-lined home victory. Griffin, a 6-foot-10 sophomore forward, has registered a double-double in all four of Oklahoma’s games so far, posting back-to-back 20-20 performances in the past two. For the season, he’s averaging 26 points and 19.8 rebounds per contest and shooting 74.5 percent from the field.
The Sooners advanced to the Big Apple with wins over Mississippi Valley State (94-53) and Davidson (82-78), both at home.
UAB punched its ticket to New York by traveling to Arizona and posting a pair of victories over Santa Clara (64-61) and host Arizona (72-71). The Blazers remained perfect with another road win on Sunday, topping Old Dominion 77-62 as a two-point underdog. In that victory, senior swingman Robert Vaden hit eight of his team’s 11 three-pointers to finish with 28 points.
The Sooners are putting up 84.8 points per game and shooting 49.6 percent from the field and giving up 65.2 ppg on 36.7 percent shooting. Meanwhile, UAB is netting 75 ppg and allowing 65 ppg, while outshooting opponents 46.4 percent to 36.7 percent.
In the only previous meeting between these teams, Oklahoma knocked UAB out of the 1983 NCAA Tournament with an 81-63 victory.
The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral-site games, but otherwise they’re on positive spread runs of 5-2 in non-conference play, 5-2 on Wednesdays and 4-0 against the Big 12. Oklahoma has also struggled at neutral sites recently (8-20 ATS), but is on impressive ATS runs of 7-3 in non-league action and 7-1 on Wednesdays.
The under is on runs of 7-3-1 for Oklahoma overall, 5-2-1 for Oklahoma at neutral sites 8-2 for Oklahoma on Wednesdays, 8-1 for Oklahoma against Conference USA opponents and 4-1 for UAB overall (all in non-conference play). However, the over is 5-0 in the Blazers’ last five against the Big 12, 5-2 in its last seven at neutral sites and 8-0 in its last eight on Wednesdays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(8) Notre Dame (4-0, 2-1 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (5-0, 2-2 ATS)
(at Maui, Hawaii)
After rolling through the first two rounds of the Maui Invitational, North Carolina figures to get somewhat challenged tonight when it hosts eighth-ranked Notre Dame in the tournament finale from Maui.
The Tar Heels trounced tourney host Chaminade 115-70 in a non-lined game Monday, then came back last night and blasted Oregon 98-69, easily covering as an 18-point favorite. Reigning national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough, playing in just his second game of the season, scored 16 points (12 from the free-throw line) and added five rebounds, while Danny Green tallied a game-high 21 points as five UNC players scored in double figures. The Heels clamped down on Oregon defensively, holding the Ducks to just 29.3 percent shooting.
Prior to North Carolina taking the court, Notre Dame held on for an 81-80 victory over No. 6 Texas as a three-point underdog. The Irish, who upended Indiana 88-50 in Monday’s opening round, survived when a desperation half-court shot by Texas hit the front of the rim as time expired. Forward Luke Harangody had game-highs of 29 points and 13 rebounds Tuesday to pace the Irish, who shot 47.6 percent from the field, including hitting 11 of 24 three-point tries.
North Carolina, which is 41-3 since the start of last season (34-2 in the regular season), has won all five of its games by 15 points or more and is averaging 86.2 ppg (46.5 percent shooting) against Division I foes. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is on a 16-4 SU roll and an 8-4 ATS run dating back to last season, and prior to last night had won its first three games by double digits. The Irish put up 86.2 ppg on 48 percent shooting.
North Carolina is on ATS runs of 37-16 in non-conference play and 5-1 at neutral sites, while the Irish are 1-4 ATS In their last five after a SU victory.
Notre Dame is in the midst of “under” streaks of 6-2 overall, 6-2 at neutral sites and 11-5 against non-conference foes. North Carolina has gone over the total in four straight games on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA
NBA
Orlando (10-4, 6-7-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (7-7, 6-8 ATS)
The Magic gun for their fifth consecutive road victory when they invade the Wachovia Center for an Eastern Conference clash with the Sixers.
Orlando bested the Bucks 108-101 on Monday, but fell short of cashing as a nine-point home chalk, dropping to 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games, all as a favorite. However, since dropping their road-opener at Memphis, the Magic have won four straight on the highway (2-1-1 ATS).
Philadelphia slipped up at Charlotte on Monday, losing 93-84 to the lowly Bobcats as a three-point road favorite. The 76ers are still on a 5-2 SU roll (3-0 at home), but they’ve followed up a 3-0 ATS run by failing to cash in three of their last four games.
The Magic knocked off Philadelphia 98-88 as a five-point home favorite back on Nov. 6, improving to 6-1 in the last seven meetings (4-3 ATS). The host has won the last four head-to-head clashes and covered the spread in each of the last five. However, the underdog is 22-10 ATS in the past 32 meetings.
Orlando’s ATS streaks including 4-0 against the Atlantic Division, 4-1 on Wednesdays and 36-16-1 after a non-cover. Conversely, Philadelphia is mired in pointspread slumps of 0-7 against the Southeast Division, 3-8 versus the Eastern Conference and 1-5 on Wednesday.
The over is 6-2 in Orlando’s last eight overall and 5-1 in its last six when going on one day of rest. Otherwise, for Orlando, the under is on runs of 13-4 on the road, 4-1 against the Atlantic Division, 19-7 against the Eastern Conference and 10-4-1 on Wednesdays, while the Sixers are on under stretches of 10-4-1 overall, 20-7 at home, 7-1-1 against the East and 4-0 on one day of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
Chicago (7-8, 9-6 ATS) at San Antonio (7-6, 6-7 ATS)
The Bulls continue their brutal seven-game, 13-day road trip at the AT&T Center, where they will attempt to cool off the red-hot Spurs.
Chicago is 2-3 on its journey so far, but one of the victories came Monday in Utah, a surprising 101-100 win as a 6½-point underdog. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games (4-2 ATS as an underdog), scoring 100 points or more in five of those contests.
San Antonio improved to 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games with Monday’s 94-81 rout of Memphis as a three-point road chalk. The Spurs have gone back to their defensive-oriented ways, holding nine straight opponents under trip digits while allowing 94 points or fewer in eight straight games.
The SU winner is 9-0 ATS in San Antonio’s last nine contests and 10-1 ATS in Chicago’s last 11.
The Spurs swept the season series from Chicago last year, winning 94-79 as a 9½-point home favorite and 102-80 as a five-point road chalk. The winner has cashed in each of the last six meetings and eight of the last nine, but the visitor is on an 11-3 ATS roll in this rivalry, with Chicago going 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to the AT&T Center.
Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against the Western Conference and 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on one day of rest, but the Bulls are on negative ATS runs of 7-20 after a victory, 4-11 after a spread-cover, 4-9 against the Southwest Division and 1-4 on Wednesdays. Meanwhile, San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Central Division and 0-4 in its last four on Wednesdays.
The Spurs are on a bunch of “under” streaks, including 20-6-1 overall (9-4 this year), 5-1 at home, 12-0-1 after a SU win, 13-3 after an ATS win and 36-17 when going on one day of rest. For the Bulls, the under is on stretches of 7-3-1 against the Western Conference, 6-2-2 versus the Southwest Division and 8-3 on one day of rest, but the over is 17-8-2 in their last 27 road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Miami (7-7, 6-7-1 ATS) at Portland (9-6, 8-7 ATS)
The inconsistent Heat kick off a five-game, eight-day West Coast road trip when they battle the streaking Blazers at the Rose Garden.
Miami has alternated SU wins and losses in its last 10 games and alternated spread-covers in its last seven. In their most recent game Monday, the Heat fell 107-98 to the Rockets as 3½-point home underdog. Miami has topped the century mark in scoring just once in its last 10 games, while allowing three straight opponents and five of the last seven to reach triple digits. Also, the team is 2-4 SU and ATS on the highway so far.
Portland continued its winning ways with Monday’s narrow 91-90 home win over the Kings, moving to 8-3 SU in its last 11 games and 5-0 at home on the season. However, the Blazers never threatened to cover as an 1½-point chalk, their second straight non-cover after a 6-1 ATS run.
Miami went 5-0 SU and ATS against Portland from 2005-07, but the Blazers have won and covered the last three meetings, including a 104-96 victory in a pick-em contest in South Beach back on Nov. 12. The visitor is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 series clashes, with Miami cashing in four of its last five trips to Portland. Finally, the SU winner has covered in each of the last 10 battles.
The Heat are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games on Wednesday, but they’re 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after a SU defeat and 7-1 ATS in their last eight after a non-cover. As for the Blazers, they’re on positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 at home, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 on one day of rest and 5-1 on Wednesdays.
The over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these teams overall and 4-0-1 the last five years in Portland. Also, the over is 11-5-1 in the Blazers’ last 17 games against the Southeast Division, 4-1 in Miami’s last five overall and 20-6-1 in Miami’s last 27 against the Northwest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Jim Feist
ORLANDO MAGIC / PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Take: ORLANDO MAGIC
Reason: Orlando (10-4) has quietly been on a roll, going 10-2 after that 0-2 start. 6-11 Dwight Howard had 24 points and 13 rebounds as the Orlando Magic outlasted the Milwaukee Bucks 108-101 Monday night. And how about a 4-1 road record! Philadelphia has been an underachiever, on a 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS run. They were favored in all 4 games, losing 2 straight up. As a 9-point favorite, they were fortunate to beat the Clippers at home by a point. The 76ers struggle against balanced offensive teams and the Magic can score inside and out. Orlando has already beaten the 76ers at home by double digits and matches up well against struggling Philly here. Play the Magic.
Dave Cokin
Play: Nuggets
The Clippers continue to be astonishingly awful. The chemistry on the team is terrible, as Baron Davis and Mike Dunleavy reportedly cannot stand one another and it's clearly making a bad team even worse. The Nuggets are playing pretty well and LA is basically not competing most nights. I'll continue to play against the Clippers at nearly every opportunity and tonight's no exception. Nuggets minus the number.
Jimmy The Moose
Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres
Prediction: Boston Bruins
The Bruins are one of the league's best team's after 21 games. The Bruins have won 12 of their last 14 games and are doing by playing well on both sides of center. Boston has won their last 6 vs. Divisional opponents. The Bruins have won 5 of their last 7 road games. Buffalo on the other hand is very cold having dropped their last 5 straight. The Sabres are 1-4 in their last 5 home games. In their last 6 games vs. Eastern Conference oppponents the Sabres are 0-6. The team's have played twice this season with the Bruins taking both and they'll do it again tonight. Play on the Boston Bruins +.
Bobby Maxwell
Orlando +2' at PHILADELPHIA
Talk about your early season surprises and you have to mention the Orlando Magic. No, not the fact that they are 10-4 and among the best in the Eastern Conference, we all saw that coming. But the fact this teams is damn good on the road, having won four straight away from Orlando.
The numbers are there to back up our play tonight as the Magic allow just 92.2 points per game on the road and hold the opposition to 40.3 percent shooting and 29.4 percent shooting from the three-point line.
The frontline of the Magic might be as good as any in the NBA with center Dwight Howard and forwards Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. All these guys can average 20 points a game and Howard can get a double-double basically every half if he wants.
Since dropping their road opener in Memphis, this team hasn't lost away from home. The Magic have alread beaten the Sixers once this season, scoring a 98-88 win at home as a five-point favorite back on Nov. 6 and they have won six of the last seven meetings. And looking long-term at this series, you'll see the underdog is 22-10 ATS in the last 32.
Play Orlando tonight in Philly and cash in tomorrow.
4♦ ORLANDO
Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take the Kings at home.
A couple of mediocre at the very best teams go at it today from Arco and in the end I'll lay a few cheap points with Sacramento.
Kevin Martin is out and the home Kings are fairly talentless, relatively speaking, but this New Jersey organization is going in the wrong direction and I just cannot see them winning all the way across the country like this and that is pretty much what it takes.
Vince Carter still can fill it up at times but going East to West is always difficult and to be honest with you the Kings have been playing alright of late. They just covered at Staples in a fairly competitive game against Kobe and the Lakers and as the double digit dog lost by one at the Rose Garden against the young and exciting TrailBlazers. Brad Miller and the Kings also shocked the world as the huge dog in New Orleans about a week ago as the 15 point pup against Chris Paul and the Hornets.
The Nets' 6-7 record is definitely a lot better than the Kings' 5-11 mark and New Jersey had won two in a row before just getting smacked against the Lakers but this team is not good at all and are in a tough tough spot today.being about three thousand miles away from home.
I don't see today's visitors able to really get it going after the big game defeat last night in LA against the Lakers. New Jersey should be fatigued here and go through the motions in a loss.
Tony Weston
We’re coming at it again on the NBA hardwood and delivering one more time as we’re heading out to Oklahoma City where the Phoenix Suns will get over on the rebuilding Thunder.
The Suns come into this game installed as about a 10, 10 1/2 point favorite, depending on where you go, but they’ll blow past that number and hand the OKC another loss.
So far this season the Suns have been just a little above average, sitting at 9-5 SU and 7-7 ATS, while the Thunder is 1-13 SU and 6-8 ATS.
On the road this season the Suns are 4-3 ATS, while the Thunder are 3-5 ATS at home, where they have failed to cover in four straight games. In that four-game stretch they’ve lost each game by an average of 15.7 points per. And over their last five games overall, they’ve been outscored by nearly 20 points per game, at 106.4-87.8.
The Suns, who are averaging 100 points per game and 101.6 points per game on the road this season, will take advantage of the ineptitudes of the Thunder and get an easy win. Take Phoenix on the road tonight.
3♦ SUNS
Matt Fargo
Boston College vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue -8.5
This line may initially seem rather high for a neutral court game but in reality, it is about fiver points too low. Purdue is the class of the Big Ten along with Michigan St. and it will likely come down to those two teams who wins the conference. The Boilermakers bring back seven of their top eight scorers from last season’s team that went 25-9 and 15-3 in the Big Ten. It is a down year for the conference but Purdue placed four players on the Preseason All-Big Ten Team including two on the first team.
One of those players is Robbie Hummel who averaged 11.4 ppg and 6.1 rpg and was voted the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year. And he is only a sophomore. He has no weakness in his game and after four games this year he is averaging 16.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg while shooting 52.8 percent from the floor including 55.6 percent from long range. Oh, and he has not missed a free throw in 17 attempts. He is just one of five returning starters that play with serious abandonment.
While the Boilermakers are a force on the offensive end, the defense is what this team wants to be known for and so far this season, they are living up to that. The competition has been average but Purdue is limiting opponents to 50 ppg on 32.9 percent shooting. Purdue allowed only 62.4 ppg last season which was 42nd in the nation. Boston College put up some big offensive numbers in its first three games at home but its first road game resulted in only 50 points on 33.3 percent shooting in a three-point loss to St. Louis.
Tyrese Rice had only six points in that game after coming off games of 16 and 28 points. This last game proved that if you stop him, you stop the Eagles. The next top five scorers are all either freshmen or sophomores and while the numbers have been good, they will be overmatched here. Boston College shot just 57.9 percent from the free throw line against St. Louis and that is a problem as Purdue is hitting 77.2 percent from the stripe on the season. Look for the Boilermakers to roll the Eagles at MSG. 3* Purdue Boilermakers
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Phoenix Suns -4
After a poor performance at Oklahoma City last night, I like the Suns to come storming back with a much better outing in Minnesota . The Suns have been the NBA's strongest team in the small road chalk at 27-12 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota is a poor 34-53 ATS in home games over the last 3 seasons, 17-31 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons, and 7-18 ATS in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Suns have too much offensive balance for the T-Wolves to contend with tonight and their ability to knock down the three means this one could get ugly in a hurry for Minnesota . Lay the number.
Vegas Experts
New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons
Knicks have gone Over in six of their last seven and are 17-4 to the Over after playing back-to-back home games. They are also 30-16 Over as a road underdog. Pistons, meanwhile, enter in off ugly back-to-back losses and have gone Under in four straight. They will be eager to beat up somebody and the Knicks provide the perfect opportunity. New York is allowing an average of 107.5 PPG. High scoring affair by Pistons standards tonight.
Play on: Over
Brian Hansen
Phoenix Coyotes at Columbus Blue Jackets
Unable to score goals or stop opponents from putting the puck in the net, the Phoenix Coyotes are on the verge of matching their longest losing streak in nearly nine years; expect them to stink it up again tonight! Phoenix (8-10-2) suffered its sixth straight loss Monday night in New York, 4-1 to the Atlantic Division-leading Rangers. The Coyotes are 0-4-2 during the skid, getting outscored 23-10. Look for COLUMBUS to improve to 3-2 its last 5 after a non-conference game!
Play on: Columbus
Big Al McMordie
So Illinois vs. Western Kentucky
Play: So Illinois
Southern Illinois comes into tonight's contest off back-to-back SU/ATS losses to Duke and UCLA, but the Salukis are a solid 18-1 ATS off two ATS losses, if they're playing away from home, and not favored by two points or more. These two teams have met each of the previous two seasons, and the Salukis won both contests -- 88-78 last season at home, and 75-70 two years ago here in Kentucky. Look for Southern Illinois to win once again. Take the Salukis.
Bryan Leonard
Air Force @ Stanford
PICK: Air Force
No doubt about it the Falcons are a young team this year and this will be their first true road game this season. But Stanford has their own youth problems and the spread on this game is very high considering the projected pace of this game. Air Force runs the Princeton offense and for those not familiar with it it can be a frustrating offense to defend. The Falcons use back door cuts and three pointers to create shots and they take a lot of time off the clock in doing so. Air Force always fares well out of conference when taking on teams who are unfamiliar with the system while struggling most years in the MWC. The Falcons are holding the opposition to 39.3% from two point range this season and their tempo ranks 304th in the country. Therefore they will play good defense and limit opponent possessions which is the key in a double digit underdog.Stanford is a totally different team this year from the coach on down. The Cardinal are now led on the sidelines by Johnny Dawkins the former Duke star who spent the last decade working as an assistant under Mike Krzyzewski. It should be noted that Dawkins has no former head coaching experience. As for the team they enter the season without the Lopez Twins who were both selected in the first round in the NBA draft. Stanford has been unimpressive out of the gate with home victories over Yale by eight and Cal Northridge by 18 points. They are yielding a whopping 60.2% on two point field goals. Needless to say the absence of the two big men has been a problem early on for the Cardinal. Stanford currently ranks 13th in the country in pace but Air Force simply won't let them play their preferred style. That takes the young Cardinal players out of their preferred rhythm while keeping Air Force in the game. Just too many points for Stanford to lay against this unconventional offense.PLAY AIR FORCE
Alex Smart
Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers
PICK: Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76'ers prepare to host the Orlando Magic in the city of brotherly love this Wednesday night in a eastern conference battle. Both teams have been winning of late, with the Sixers nabbing W's in 5 of their L/7 overall , while the Magic have notched victories in 6 of their L/7 and 10 of their L/12..
The 76ers have been winning because of some hardcore defensive efforts, while the Magic have played a more balanced type of basketball.
The Sixers even with off -season acqusition Elton Brand in the lineup have been unable to score with frequency, and have proven themselves very inconsistent this season. Their defense has been their saving grace , as is evident by not allowing 8 of their L/9 opponents to eclipse the 100 point plateau.
The Magic will be without key player Jameer Nelson tonight, for the second straight game, making them less cohesive than usual, which will give the host team Philadelphia an edge in front of the home town fans. I very much like tough defenses at home , and once again will back my convictions by supporting the Sixers to bring home the cash.
Final notes & Key Trends:Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings .
Projected score: Philadelphia 97 Orlando 92
LT Profits
Portland Trail Blazers -7.5
Now, we are normally not fans of laying this many points, but the Portland Trail Blazers look like legitimate playoff contenders this season, and they are undefeated at home while the erratic Miami Heat have had their troubles on the road.
The Blazers are now 5-0 straight up at home while winning those games by an average of +10.0 points. Greg Oden has given them the inside presence that they were lacking last year, and they have won three of their last four games with Oden finally back on the court.
The Heat are 7-7 SU overall and 2-4 on the road, and they have been maddeningly inconsistent, alternating wins and losses in their last 10 games. Now granted, that would put them in line for a win tonight if that pattern holds, but we do not like the fact that they are beginning a long West Coast trip after going 1-2 in a three-game home stand that ended with a 107-98 loss to the Houston Rockets on Monday.
We look for the Blazers to match their average home margin of victory here with another triumph by about 10 points.
Pick: Blazers -7.5