Vegas Runner COMP
1.) SIXERS -4 (2*)...Wish I would have put this up when it was still -2, because with Nelson and Bogans out...we should continue to see the Outfits laying the points with Philly, and with the followers coming in behind them...we may even set ourselves up with a nice middle opp, around the mean of NBA Finals...VR
2.) W. KENTUCKY PK (2*)...S Ill returns 3 starters, but is also working with "7" new-comers this season...Their biggest problem will be in the Front-court where they will have to somehow replace Falker & Shaw...and more importantly, really look to improve on the boards...That weakness falls right into the strength of W Kent. who may only return 2 starters, but will be a very good club defensively...and have a strong Front-court, extremely capable of winning the battle of the boards...Surprisingly enough, W Kentucky even closed out '07 with a higher RPI than their opponent tonight, and should be very capable of getting the win for their new head coach...VR
Dave Price
1 Unit on Toronto Raptors -8
Charlotte is 0-3 on the road this season. The Raptors have struggled at home, but they will be well rested tonight and will have plenty of motivation to get back in the win column after getting mopped up by Boston . Toronto will not lose three straight home games, especially against a struggling Bobcats team which has lost 4 of 5 and 8 of 11. The Raptors are 11-4 SU and 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this matchup. The Raptors are an impressive 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. Lay the points.
Info Plays
3* on Indiana State -1
1.) Head coach Kevin McKenna is in his second year this season and the Sycamores will be improved after a 15-16 2007-08 campaign. Indiana State returns 4 starters from last year’s squad. They host Murray State tonight, who lost their only road game of the season to Arkansas State 55-47. Indiana State has played a pair of tough games to start the year at Northern Illinois and hosting North Texas. This team will get it turned around at home tonight to pick up their first win of the season.
2.) System Play. We’ll Play On - Home teams as a favorite or pick (INDIANA ST) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. This is a 22-3 ATS System hitting 88% over the last 5 seasons. After an upset loss to North Texas, Indiana State will be determined tonight to get their first win. Murray State has yet to win a road game this season. Bet Indiana State at home.
Scott Rickenbach
Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves
PICK: Minnesota Timberwolves
Short and concise with the Free Pick write-up as we're busy gearing up for the Thanksgiving Holiday tomorrow. Food, Family, and Football! Until then, we turn our attention to this match-up on the hardwood where it is quite likely that the Suns will struggle. They're playing the 2nd night of a back to back and they barely squeaked by Oklahoma City last night. Yes, we know that Shaquille O'Neal sat out last night's game so he'd be ready for this one but he's not going to stop Al Jefferson and the Timberwolves here. This is also a revenge game for Minnesota as they got blown out by Phoenix in their most recent match-up in April. Additionally, the Timberwolves come into this game with a lot of confidence thanks to winning two of their last three games including a big win over the Pistons! Confident, at home, enjoying a scheduling advantage, we'll side with the Timberwolves in this one. Play MINNESOTA
Stephen Nover
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons
PICK: Under
I got burned trying to go 'under' Mike D'Antoni's Knicks last night as the game was essentially over at halftime with the Cavaliers eventually winning 119-101.
But I'm not giving up on an 'under' premise with the Knicks as they have a cluster injury problem at guard and are going through a transition period after dealing their two top scorers, Zach Randolph and Jamal Crawford.
The Knicks' only healthy guards are Chris Duhon and Anthony Robertston. Even D'Antoni has got to slow down the pace without the departed Crawford, no Cuttino Mobley (possible heart condition) and now being without little Nate Robinson, who probably is going to miss at least a week with a groin injury sustained last night.
The Pistons are not as good as they tradtionally have been defensively. But they still are respectable ranking 14th. They should play better after being embarrassed at home in their last game on Sunday, losing to Minnesota by a shocking 106-80.
In their previous two home games, the Pistons held Cleveland to 89 points and Boston to 88 points. Detroit has gone 'under' in seven of its last nine home contests.
The Pistons are going through their own transition period. They are just 4-5 since acquiring Allen Iverson.
This is a one-unit play for me.
David Malinsky
Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets
PICK: Under
There has been a lot of “steam” to the other side of this one today, with two different market surges taking the opener of 190.5 all the way to the 194.5 that is now available in most key precincts. That provides more than enough value for us to cash a ticket in a game in which neither offense finds it easy to get into rhythm, and the pace is methodical.
There is no secret as to how the Rockets want to flow games when they are the ones in control – run half-court sets on offense to get Yao Ming involved as much as possible, and force the opposition to score against their half-court defense, which rates among the best in the league. Overall it brings them a combination that is #5 defensively and #25 on our pace ratings, and in this particular setting we find what we expect – they are 2-0 to the Under as a home favorite in double figures, with the two games finishing a combined 69 points below the posted Total. Naturally we do not expect anything that extreme here, but it shows what can happen when they are in charge. And the ability of Ron Artest to shackle Danny Granger helps to curtail the Indiana offensive flow, while the anticipated return of Shane Battier tonight adds even more depth to the Houston defense.
The flip side of this equation is one that the markets have been slow to react to – the Pacers did not come into this season with a reputation for defense, but Tom O’Brien has them playing solidly on that end of the court. They are #7 in our “Points Per Possession” tables, and have held the opposition to 43.5 percent shooting. In their first back-to-back road setting of the season it is that part of their game that comes to the forefront even more, which helps to keep this one comfortably under the new high plateau that has been created.
Doc
Chicago Bulls @ San Antonio Spurs
PICK: San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have been playing much better lately and the return of Manu Ginobli will continue to give this team a spark. The Spurs have won five of their last six games overall and are playing the best they have all season. The Bulls are in the midst of a brutal road trip and they will be playing their fourth game in six nights and we really expect fatigue to be a factor here. San Antonio has really tightened up on defense in recent games as they have allowed just 87 PPG in their last five compared to 111 during the same stretch for the Bulls.
Larry Ness
Arkansas @ South Alabama
PICK: South Alabama
John Pelphrey had an excellent first year at Arkansas last season, going 23-12 and leading the Razorbacks into the second round of the NCAA tourney. However, he lost six seniors off that team, a couple of transfers and then guard Patrick Beverley (9.5 PPG) hired an agent and was not allowed to return. Up front, Weems, Townes and Thomas combined to average 36.3 PPG and 14.5 RPG last year and they are all gone. Pelphrey's got a very young team but it's talented. When 6-10 junior Michael Washington came to Arkansas much was expected but he did little his first two years. However, he's averaged 16.3 PPG and 9.3 RPG in Arkansas' 2-1 start. He's joined by 6-9 redshirt freshman Sanchez (8.3-11.7) in the frontcourt, with junior swingman McDonald (4.7-6.3) coming off the bench. Freshman guards Fortson (14.7-4.7-4.3) and Clarke (15.0) are teamed with junior Welsh (10.3-2.3 APG) in a three-guard attack. Arkansas' two wins came at home over SE Louisiana (91-87 in OT) and UC-Davis (68-59), which is surely nothing to brag about. Its first road test was last Saturday vs Missouri State, which was playing its first game in the school's brand new 67 million dollar on-campus facility, the JQH Arena. Arkansas lost 62-57, committing 17 turnovers. South Alabama is 2-2 on the year, after losing 81-54 in the finals of the Billy Minardi Classic to nationally-ranked Louisville, 81-54. Tilford (16.5) is an excellent guard plus South Alabama's starting frontcourt is more than a match for the Razorbacks' group. The 6-6 Davis (17.0-9.0) leads the team in scoring and rebounding, while the 6-7 Coleman (10.5-5.8) and the 6-5 Watson (7.0-6.5) are backed by the 6-8 Douglas (6.3-5.3) off the bench. South Alabama has won 24, 20 and 26 games the last three seasons, reaching the "Big Dance" last year, in Ronnie Arrow's triumphant "return home." Arrow led the Jaguars to two NCAA tourneys back in 1989 and 1991 but recently built the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi program from the ground-up. He gave Wisconsin a 'scare' in the '07 tourney with the Islanders but then returned to Mobile last year, with great success. The Jags have already lost at Ole Miss and Louisville plus have a road game at Miss St still ahead of them. Here, they get an SEC team at home and "don't miss the chance" for a win. Take South Alabama.
Indiancowboy COMP
St. Josephs -2 over Alabama
Look, I know the Tide are my time but I also realize that Mark Gottfried needs to be fired. The Tide have yet to win back to back games in the early season losing to the likes of m alma mater Mercer and Oregon and their six freshman. Gottfried needs to go. I like St. Joe's here as they are a solid group of young players who can play great defense and the Tide come off a big win over Chaminade who many varsity high school teams can defeat. I think St. Josephs frankly is better coached and this team comes off a 34 point thumping over Indiana scoring 80+ points. They have also played the likes of Texas and Holy Cross. St. Joe's I think is much more prepared to handle matters in this game than my Tide.