SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Michigan (5-1, 3-1 ATS) at Maryland (4-2, 2-2 ATS)
Maryland, coming off its first two losses of the season, looks to get back on track when it hosts Michigan in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
The Terrapins started the season with four consecutive wins, including Thursday’s 80-62 upset victory over then-No. 5 Michigan State of the Big Ten as a 7½-point underdog in the Old Spice Classic in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. However, Maryland followed that up with blowout losses to No. 9 Gonzaga (81-59 as a six-point underdog) and No. 21 Georgetown (75-48 as a five-point pup) at the tournament.
Michigan rebounded from its first loss of the season – a 71-56 setback to Duke in the Coaches vs. Cancer Clinic on Nov. 21 – with consecutive home wins, but the Wolverines barely skated past Savannah State 66-64 in overtime on Saturday in a non-lined contest.
These schools last met in 2000, with Maryland cruising to an 82-51 victory in a non-lined game. The Terps have won six straight games against the Big Ten (5-1 ATS), including last week’s win over Michigan State. Meanwhile, last month’s loss to Duke dropped Michigan to 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five games against the ACC.
The Wolverines are mired in ATS slumps of 11-23-1 on the road, 2-10 in non-conference play, 1-7 on Wednesdays and 6-14 after a SU win. Meanwhile, Maryland is 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, but 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 on Wednesday.
The over is 5-1 in Michigan’s last six games against the ACC and 8-2 in its last 10 on Wednesdays. However, the under for the Wolverines is on runs of 12-2 overall and 8-0 on the road, while the Terps are on under streaks of 4-0 overall (all in non-conference play), 19-7 at home and 5-0 against the Big Ten.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND and UNDER
(1) North Carolina (7-0, 3-2 ATS) vs. (13) Michigan State (4-1, 2-2 ATS) (at Detroit)
North Carolina treks to the site of this year’s Final Four when it battles Michigan State in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge matchup from Ford Field.
The top-ranked Tar Heels rolled to the Maui Invitational championship last week, then came home Sunday and feasted on North Carolina-Asheville 116-48 in a non-lined contest. Roy Williams’ team has won all seven of its games by 15 points or more, even though reigning national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough has seen limited action.
Michigan State suffered a surprising 80-62 loss to Maryland in Thursday’s opening round of the Old Spice Classic in Florida, but the Spartans rebounded the next two nights with victories over Oklahoma State (94-79, easily covering as a 5½-point chalk) and Wichita State (65-57, falling short as a 14-point favorite). Despite the non-cover against Wichita, Tom Izzo’s club is on an 8-4 ATS roll since last March.
North Carolina eliminated Michigan State on its way to last year’s Final Four, rolling 81-67 as a 10-point favorite in a second-round matchup. Two years earlier, the Tar Heels beat the Spartans in a Final Four matchup, winning 87-71 as a 4½-point chalk. These schools have met five times in the last 10 years, with UNC going 3-2 SU and ATS. The winner cashed in all five games, and the favorite went 4-1 ATS.
The Tar Heels have topped the century mark three times and they’re averaging 93.8 points against Division I opponents, shooting 50 percent from the field and 42 percent from three-point land in those contests. Meanwhile, Michigan State is putting up 78.2 ppg on 49.6 percent shooting (38.1 percent from long range).
North Carolina is on ATS streaks of 7-3 overall, 37-14 in non-conference play, 5-1 against the Big Ten, 5-2 on Wednesdays and 7-1 after scoring at least 100 points in its previous game. Meanwhile, the Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on Wednesdays, and even though this isn’t technically a home game, Michigan State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a host.
The over is 9-3 in Carolina’s last 12 on the road, 5-0 in its last five on Wednesdays and 5-1 in Michigan State’s last six after an ATS setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
NBA
L.A. Lakers (14-2, 10-6 ATS) at Philadelphia (8-10, 7-11 ATS)
One night after a stunning buzzer-beating loss at Indiana, the Lakers look to regroup when they head to Philadelphia for a matchup against the 76ers.
Los Angeles entered the fourth quarter last night with a 15-point lead, but couldn’t hold it, falling 118-117 as a nine-point favorite when a tip-in by Danny Granger rattled around the rim and dropped in as time expired. That snapped the Lakers’ seven-game winning streak (4-3 ATS) and was their first road loss of the season (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS). L.A. has scored at least 93 points in every game this year, topping triple digits in 13 of its 16 contests, including each of the last eight. However, Phil Jackson’s squad managed just 16 points in the fourth quarter Tuesday.
The 76ers snapped a four-game SU and ATS losing skid in Chicago last night, winning 103-95 in overtime as a two-point road underdog, the first time in six games that Philadelphia scored more than 96 points. Despite that triumph, the Sixers are still just 2-6 against the number in their last eight. They’ve also followed up a three-game home winning streak by losing consecutive contests (0-2 ATS) at the Wachovia Center.
Los Angeles swept the season series last year, including a 106-101 victory in Philly as a 2½-point road chalk. The host is on an 8-2 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, with the Sixers going 4-1 SU and ATS the last five times they’ve hosted the Lakers. Finally, the favorite has cashed in five of the last six head-to-head battles.
The Lakers are on ATS upticks of 5-1 when playing the second game of a back-to-back, 5-2 on Wednesdays and 20-9 against losing squads, but they’re 2-7 ATS in their last nine against the Atlantic Division and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 versus the Eastern Conference. The Sixers are 1-6 ATS in their past seven Wednesday outings and 2-6 ATS in their last eight when playing on back-to-back nights.
For the Lakers, the over is on stretches of 10-3 overall, 7-0 against the Eastern Conference and 15-6 versus the Atlantic Division, but the under is 4-2 in their last six road games and 4-0 in their last four in back-to-back situations. Meanwhile, the over is 7-3 in Philadelphia’s last 10 games on Wednesdays and 12-5-1 in its last 18 back-to-backs, but otherwise the 76ers are on under stretches of 11-5-2 overall this season, 21-7-1 at home and 4-1 against the Pacific Division.
Finally, the over has hit in four of the last five Lakers-76ers battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
Phoenix (11-7, 8-10 ATS) at New Orleans (9-6, 5-9-1 ATS)
The Hornets go for their sixth consecutive win over the Suns when these Western Conference powers clash in the Big Easy
New Orleans had a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) snapped in its most recent contest on Friday in Portland, falling 101-86 as a five-point underdog. The Hornets, who have played five of their last seven games on the highway, are kicking off a three-game stretch at New Orleans Arena, where they are just 4-3 SU and 1-5-1 ATS this season.
Phoenix hits the road after two surprising home losses over the weekend, a 107-92 setback to Miami on Friday as a seven-point chalk and a 117-109 setback to New Jersey on Sunday as a nine-point favorite. On the bright side, the Suns are 7-2 SU on the highway so far, but after starting out 4-1 ATS on the road, they have failed to cover in three of their last four as a visitor.
The Hornets went to the desert on Oct. 30 and routed the Suns 108-95 as a three-point road underdog. New Orleans not only has won five straight meetings in this series, it has covered in each of the last seven, going 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU) at home during this stretch. However, New Orleans has been a ‘dog six times during its 7-0 ATS run against Phoenix.
The Suns are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after a non-cover, but otherwise the trends are all negative for Terry Porter’s team, including 3-8 overall, 2-6 against the Western Conference, 2-5-1 against the Southwest Division, 1-4 when playing on two days’ rest and 0-6 after scoring in triple digits the previous game.
The Hornets are in negative ATS slumps of 3-8-1 overall, 0-5-1 at home, 0-5 on Wednesdays and 4-9 against the Western Conference, but they’re 20-7 ATS in their last 27 against the Pacific Division, 37-18-2 in their last 57 after a SU defeat and 41-18-1 in their last 60 following an ATS setback.
The over is 11-4 in Phoenix’s last 15 Wednesday outings, 4-0 in its last four against winning teams, 11-5 in New Orleans’ last 16 on Wednesdays and 4-0 in New Orleans’ last four versus winning clubs. However, for the Hornets, the under is on stretches of 9-3 overall and 8-1 following a SU loss.
Finally, the over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this rivalry, but the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes in the Big Easy.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
Miami (9-9, 7-10-1 ATS) at Utah (12-7, 10-9 ATS)
The Heat will try to climb back over .500 when they close out a five-game Western Conference road trip against the Jazz at Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City.
Miami earned a thrilling 130-129 overtime win at Golden State on Monday, but failed to cover as a 2½-point road favorite, moving to 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on this road swing. The Heat have won consecutive games just once this season, and they’re just 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 contests (2-4-1 ATS on the highway).
Utah traveled to Sacramento last night and rallied for a 99-94 victory as a two-point road favorite, rebounding from Saturday’s embarrassing 105-88 home loss to the Nets as an 8½-point home chalk. Prior to the last two games, the Jazz had scored at least 100 points in four straight contests and six of their previous seven, going 5-2 SU and ATS during that streak. The SU winner has cashed in each of Utah’s last 14 outings.
Surprisingly, Miami has had its way with the Jazz in recent years, winning eight of the last nine meetings both SU and ATS, covering the spread in seven straight head-to-head battles, including four in a row in Utah. Last year, the Heat prevailed 104-102 as a one-point home underdog and lost 110-101 in Salt Lake City, but barely cashed as a 10-point underdog.
In addition to its current 1-4 ATS slump, the Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on Wednesdays, 1-5 ATS in their last five against the West and 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 against winning teams. As for the Jazz, they’re 45-20-2 ATS in their last 57 home games, but otherwise are riding negative pointspread skids of 1-5 against the Eastern Conference, 4-11 versus the Southwest Division and 2-5 when playing on back-to-back nights (1-3 in that situation this year).
In this rivalry, the over is on stretches of 5-1 overall and 4-1 in games played at Energy Solutions Arena. Also, the over is on runs of 8-3 for the Jazz overall, 6-2 for the Jazz at home, 6-2 when the Jazz play on back-to-back nights, 8-2 for the Jazz on Wednesdays, 6-1 for the Heat overall and 20-7-1 for the Heat against Northwest Division foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and OVER
JIM FEIST
INDIANA PACERS / BOSTON CELTICS
Take BOSTON CELTICS
Indiana Pacers still struggling to get on track this season, starting just 7-10 SU, 9-7-1 ATS. However, the Pacers are coming off a big win at home over the Lakers on Tuesday evening, 118-117. Danny Granger led the Pacers over the Lakers with 32 points. He leads the team in scoring with 24.2 ppg average. The Pacers haven't scored many points at the Garden, as they haven't eclipsed the 90 point mark four times in the the last 10 trips. Eight of those last 10 have also gone UNDER the total. The Celtics continue to roll, now at 15-2 SU on the season and 10-9 ATS. The Celtics have covered six of their last eight games, including Monday's win over Orlando, 107-88. Don't expect the Pacers to be able to match the intensity they came away with last night against the Lakers. Playing the two top teams in the NBA back-to-back will just be a bit much for this Indiana club. They will be more than happy to have split this grueling two day series against the league's best.
Bobby Maxwell
Michigan at MARYLAND -6'
This ACC/Big Ten Challenge game has a big win from Maryland written all over it. Michigan hasn't had a true road game this season where they've had to go into hostile territory and the Wolverines offense has been very inconsistent.
Maryland has lost two in a row but they came against some of the best teams in the country in neutral site games against Gonzaga and Georgetown. The Terps lost to the Hoyas on Sunday and played their worst game of the season in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. They shot just 31.6 percent from the floor and 16.7 percent from the 3-point line against the Hoyas and that's just not the way the Terps play basketball.
So far this season at home, Maryland has averaged 81 points a game and shot 41.8 percent from the floor. The Terps are 4-0 ATS in their last four against Big Ten opposition, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after a double-digit loss and they are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 Wednesday games.
Michigan had one surprise game against UCLA earlier this season in New York, but otherwise this team has been very average. The Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last five against ACC teams, 2-10 ATS in non-conference action, 11-23-1 ATS on the road and 1-7 in Wednesday contests.
We're going to lay the chalk with Maryland in this one. The Terps win this one going away.
2♦ MARYLAND
Jimmy The Moose
Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
Memphis is 4-13 SU on the year and 6-11 ATS. Over their last 10 games the Grizzlies are 2-8 SU and ATS. On the road they are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Hawks aren't playing like they did down the stretch last season or in the playoffs. The Hawks do come into this one having won their last 2 SU and ATS. Atlanta has owned the Grizzlies of late though. The Hawks are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings between the clubs. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 trips to Atlanta. Play on the Atlanta Hawks -.
Jack Clayton
Bulls at Bucks
Pick: Bucks
Milwaukee is home and rested, while Chicago is playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, plus the second of a back to back spot. Play the Bucks.
Brett Maverick Sports
Phoenix +5 1 Star
Off our Clemson winner here last night, tonight we go to the NBA for an advantage in the numbers. New Orleans enters this game at only 1-5-1 ats at home this year, while the Suns are 5-4 vs the number on the road. Thats a 10-5 -1 trend advantage toward the Suns. Now we look at the stats and the Suns lead in ppg at 100 -96. They lead the defensive rebounds at 31-27 per game and the Big Stat that sticks out is the 50.5% shooting from the field for the Suns. Take Phoenix to get the cover.
DUNKEL
NCAAB
North Carolina at Michigan State
The 7-0 Tar Heels head to Michigan State to take on a Spartans team that is 29-19 ATS over the last three seasons against teams with a winning record. Michigan State is the underdog pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has North Carolina favored by just 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+10).
Game 523-524: East Carolina at NC Wilmington
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 53.488; NC Wilmington 50.239
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 3
Vegas Line: NC Wilmington by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+2 1/2)
Game 525-526: Cornell at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 58.775; Syracuse 71.666
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 13
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 18
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+18)
Game 527-528: Brown at Providence
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 53.228; Providence 64.337
Dunkel Line: Providence by 11
Vegas Line: Providence by 16
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+16)
Game 529-530: Fordham at Hosfstra
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 40.592; Hofstra 56.791
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 16
Vegas Line: Hofstra by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (-12 1/2)
Game 531-532: Rhode Island at Northeastern
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 62.090; Northeastern 57.045
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 5
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (-1 1/2)
Game 533-534: Massachusetts at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 55.330; Toledo 57.895
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+2)
Game 535-536: Duquesne at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 59.644; Pittsburgh 76.703
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 17
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 18
Dunkel Pick: Duquesne (+18)
Game 537-538: Richmond at Old Dominion
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 54.496; Old Dominion 63.178
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 9
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 6
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (-6)
Game 539-540: Tulsa at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 66.390; Ohio 61.627
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 5
Vegas Line: Ohio by 1
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+1)
Game 541-542: Indiana at Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 57.044; Wake Forest 71.705
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 24
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+24)
Game 543-544: Penn State at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 60.431; Georgia Tech 72.492
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 12
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 8
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-8)
Game 545-546: Michigan at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 62.152; Maryland 72.624
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-5 1/2)
Game 547-548: Miami (OH) at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 61.506; Temple 61.528
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Temple by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+3 1/2)
Game 549-550: New Mexico State at Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 60.781; Kansas 86.632
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 26
Vegas Line: Kansas by 17
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-17)
Game 551-552: Arkansas Little Rock at Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas Little Rock 53.874; Missouri State 63.637
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 10
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (-3 1/2)
Game 553-554: Auburn at Xavier
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 59.828; Xavier 71.209
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+14 1/2)
Game 555-556: Illinois-Chicago at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 55.966; Vanderbilt 69.626
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-9 1/2)
Game 557-558: Tulane at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 53.392; New Orleans 48.424
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 5
Vegas Line: Tulane by 1
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (-1)
Game 559-560: South Florida at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 60.978; UAB 65.860
Dunkel Line: UAB by 5
Vegas Line: UAB by 12
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+12)
Game 561-562: West Virginia at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 72.271; Mississippi 69.241
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 3
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia
Game 563-564: Iowa State at Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 54.058; Northern Iowa 60.508
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-4 1/2)
Game 565-566: Northern Illinois at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 46.873; Air Force 52.848
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 6
Vegas Line: Air Force by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+7 1/2)
Game 567-568: Wyoming at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 55.006; Boise State 56.033
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 1
Vegas Line: Boise State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+3)
Game 569-570: Wichita State at Texas Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 58.423; Texas Tech 64.044
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 10
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (+10)
Game 571-572: Oregon at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 60.946; Utah 72.787
Dunkel Line: Utah by 12
Vegas Line: Utah by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-9 1/2)
Game 573-574: North Carolina at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 77.290; Michigan State 75.660
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 10
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+10)
Game 575-576: Florida State at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 59.230; Northwestern 64.890
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-1 1/2)
Game 577-578: UNLV at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 66.779; Fresno State 51.866
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 15
Vegas Line: UNLV by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-7 1/2)
Game 579-580: TCU at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 56.248; Colorado 57.792
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado by 4
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+4)
Game 581-582: Santa Clara at San Jose State
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 50.108; San Jose State 52.241
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State
Game 583-584: Pepperdine at Long Beach State
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 44.015; Long Beach State 52.231
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 8
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (+12 1/2)
Game 585-586: San Francisco at Cal Poly
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 54.176; Cal Poly 47.089
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2)
Game 587-588: DePaul at California
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 59.970; California 73.311
Dunkel Line: California by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: California by 9
Dunkel Pick: California (-9)
Game 589-590: Rutgers at Rider
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 58.235; Rider 57.964
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Rider by 2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+2)
Game 591-592: Siena at Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 60.431; Loyola-MD 54.920
Dunkel Line: Siena by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 8
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (+8)
Game 593-594: Appalachian State at Furman
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 50.208; Furman 47.350
Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 3
Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Furman (+5)
Game 595-596: Akron at Niagara
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 55.355; Niagara 65.334
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 10
Vegas Line: Niagara by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-7 1/2)
Game 597-598: BYU at Weber State
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 66.645; Weber State 54.055
Dunkel Line: BYU by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: BYU by 9
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-9)
Game 599-600: San Diego State at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 60.566; Northern Colorado 50.609
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 10
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-6 1/2)
Game 601-602: Eastern Washington at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 49.267; Portland 58.166
Dunkel Line: Portland by 9
Vegas Line: Portland by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-6 1/2)
Game 603-604: UC Davis at Sacramento State
Dunkel Ratings: UC Davis 43.680; Sacramento State 43.883
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: UC Davis by 4
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (+4)
Matt Fargo
Rhode Island @ Northeastern
PICK: Rhode Island
I think Rhode Island is going to be a very popular play but justifiably so in this case. The Rams are off to a 5-2 start with the losses coming against Villanova and Duke, the latter coming at Cameron Indoor by just three points. If that doesn’t make a team road confident, nothing will. The Rams were beaten pretty handily by Villanova despite outshooting the Wildcats. The difference came at the free throw line as Villanova went 26-31 (83.9 percent) while committing only nine turnovers.
Northeastern started the season 3-1 and things were looking really good until last week with back-to-back losses against Boston University and South Florida. The loss to BU was at home making it look even worse and there are some serious issues going on with this team. The Huskies are having trouble on offense, averaging only 62 ppg on 39.7 percent shooting. Their offensive efficiency is 187th in the nation which is pretty poor considering the Rams offensive efficiency is 9th in the country.
The defense of Northeastern has made up for some of the offensive problems but that is only due to the slow down tempo as even though it is allowing 64.8 ppg, it is allowing 44.9 percent shooting and overall, the defensive efficiency is a very below average 248th. That is going to be a problem against the Rams who like to run and are excellent at taking care of the ball as they are turning it over on only 16.8 percent of their possessions which is tops in the Atlantic Ten and 21st in the country.
The Rams are shooting 43.6 percent from long range compared to just 33.3 percent for the Huskies and both defenses are allowing right around the same percentage and the game could easily be decided right there. Schedules can play a big part in the early season successes or lack there of but both of these teams have played virtually the same strength of schedule so the numbers are legit. Northeastern is playing with revenge but the Rams 20-point win last season shows dominance which we’ll see again here. 3* Rhode Island Rams
Brian Hansen
Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers
I look for the Oilers to revenge their loss to the Stars tonight in front of the home town crowd. Dallas won at home, 4-3, but I look for the home team to once again have the advantage. In fact this is a horrible spot for Dallas which is 2-10 (-10.4 units) when playing against a team with a losing record! Look for EDMONTON to improve to 7-5 (+2.6 units) when revenging a loss vs. an opponent!
Sports Gambling Hotline
LA Lakers -7 at PHILADELPHIA
On the suface this may seem like a lot of points to be laying on the NBA road, but we feel after the Lakers just blew a 15-point lead at Indiana last night, Los Angeles will be out for blood tonight against Philadelphia.
The Sixers stopped their 4-game losing streak by winning the back end of a home-and-home last night in overtime at Chicago. Have to expect the 76ers will be a little gassed in this one tonight, and they have not been able to match up too well with the Lakers in recent meetings.
Los Angeles swept last year's season series both straight up, and against the spread, and the Lake-Show has won 3 of the last 4 series meetings SU & ATS as well.
Last night's loss was the first of the season on the road for LA, as the Lakers still sport a positive 5-1 road mark, and a 4-2 against the spread road mark.
Philly is just 4-5 against the math at home this season, and we see another loss attached to that mark after tonight's contest.
Play on the Lakers minus the points.
2♦ LAKERS
John Ryan
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +9
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Minnesota (NBA) - AiS shows a 77% probability that Minnesota will lose this game by 8 or fewer points and a 38% probability that they will win the game. AiS shows an 85% probability that Orlando will not shoot above 39% from the 3-point line. Note that Minnesota is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1996.Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 152-96 ATS for 61% since 2002. Play on road dogs after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and is a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season. Minnesota is not a strong foul drawing team and relies more on the perimeter for scoring. Minnesota ranks 23rd in the league in foul attempts per game with 22.8. Note that Orlando is 117-159 ATS (-57.9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams attempting <=24 free throws/game since 1996. Orlando is not a strong passing team and as a result they rank 29th in assists per game with just 17.3. Note that orlando is 30-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) in home games after a game with 15 or less assists since 1996. There are 3 times this season that Minnesota has hot poorly hitting 40% or less from the field. In 2 of these 3 games Minnesota came back and played well hitting over 50% in 2 of them and winning the game SU and ATS. I had the Pacers last night and on the Tuesday Podcast even stated that they had a chance to be headline news on Sports Center and they were indeed. Perhaps Minnesota can pull off another improbable upset as well. I certainly see strong reason to believe this game will be quite close. Take Minnesota.
St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild
Prediction: Minnesota Wild
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Minnesota (NHL) - Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 70-24 making 32.7 units since 1996. Play on home favorites against the money line off a close home loss by 1 goal facing an opponent off a road win by 2 goals or more. St. Louis is in a series of poor roles noting they are 17-34 against the money line (-18.2 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons; 17-36 against the money line (-19.7 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons; 8-25 against the money line (-17.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota HC Jacques Lemaire is 46-13 against the money line (+25.1 Units) in home games against poor possession teams-averaging 3+ less shots on goal than opposition in all games he has coached since 1996. Take Minnesota.
Tom Freese
Duquesne at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 22-6 ATS as home favorites of 12.5 to 18 points and they are 7-0 ATS if they allowed their last opponent to shoot 37% or less from the floor. The Panthers are 6-2-1 ATS off a straight up win and they are 7-2 ATS on Wednesday. Duquesne is 5-11 ATS off a loss by 20 or more points and they are 2-7 ATS their last 9 games overall. The Dukes are 0-5 ATS their last 5 road games and they are 0-5 ATS after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON PITTSBURGH -
Vegas Experts
Minnesota T'Wolves at Orlando Magic
Orlando is 16-2 ATS off a road loss. They will be very eager to take the court following a humiliating 107-88 loss in Boston. Minnesota is the perfect oppponent. They have failed to cover four straight games, allowing 100+ points every time. Prior to the Boston loss, the Magic won nine of their last ten games. Only twice this season have the Magic been a favorite of this magnitude. They covered both times, winning by 18 and 25.
Play on: Orlando Magic
Dave Price
1 Unit on Boston Celtics -13
Off a big upset win over LA, the Pacers will be in letdown mode tonight in Boston against a rested Celtics team. Oh yeah, and Boston will have revenge on the brain as Indy is responsible for one of its two losses on the year. Boston is 26-10 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Pacers are only 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Lay the number.
Bryan Leonard
North Carolina @ Michigan State
PICK: North Carolina -10
North Carolina enters this game with a perfect 7-0 record, winning every game by 15 or more points. The Tar Heels have already knocked off Kentucky by 19 and Notre Dame by 15 points. They are ranked #3 in the country in offensive efficiency and they are holding the opposition to just 40.1% shooting from 2 point range. Michigan State are 4-1 on the season losing by 18 points to a young Maryland squad. Other than a 15 point win over Oklahoma State the Spartans have been an early season disappointment. Michigan State hasn't played well on the defensive end allowing 39.6% from 3 point range. The venue isn't their normal home court as this game has been moved to the Palace in Auburn Hills. While the crowd will be pro Michigan State it's not the same as if they were playing the Breslin Center. North Carolina simply has too many scorers for the Spartans to control. When you are struggling defensively this is not the team you want to face. Michigan State doesn't have enough offensive options to keep this close.
PLAY NORTH CAROLINA