LT Profits
Northern Colorado +6.5
The Northern Colorado Bears went into southern California and upset the San Diego State Aztecs outright on their own floor last season, and although revenge is a factor here, we still expect the Bears to take this game down to the wire at home.
Now the Aztecs are off to a 5-1 start, but they have not exactly played a killer schedule. They have two non-lined wins vs. the likes of Seattle University and UC San Diego, and they lost at home to the only quality opponent they have faced in Arizona State. We simply do not feel they deserve this much favoritism in their first true road game of the year.
Now the Bears have only played one non-lined game, and they are 2-1 against the spread vs. the main board teams that they have faced. They won outright on the road at Denver, and they lost by just two points vs. Oregon, also on the road as 17-point underdogs.
The Bears scored 105 points in their home opener, and they should be confident facing the Aztecs at home after beating them in San Diego last season.
Granted, San Diego State has motivation here, but we just do not feel they are good enough to win handily in their first true road test, so look for Northern Colorado to at the very least keep this game undecided until the final buzzer, if not upset the Aztecs for the second straight season.
Pick: Northern Colorado +6.5
DAVE COKIN
AUBURN / XAVIER
Take XAVIER
My pre-season college rankings have been gold so far for the most part, but one team I underestimated was Xavier. I did not have the Musketeers in my Top 30 to start the year, as I felt their losses from last season were going to be a real problem, at least in the early going. Forget about that. This is a very solid team and I think Xavier is already a borderline Top 10 entry. Auburn sure isn't anything close to that, and while the Tigers are a decent team, this is not a good spot for them. The Musketeers should have a big night on the inside and I expect them to win easily. Xavier minus the points.
JRTIPS
CLEVELAND vs. NY KNICKS
Labron James looks to lead the Cavaliers to their 14th win in 15 games and set a franchise record with their 10th straight home win to open a season as they host the tired Knicks tonight. Cleveland has won 13 of 14 and is outscoring its opponents by an average of 18.8 points during its five-game winning streak. Last week they beat the Knicks 119-101 and James finished with 26 points in 30 minutes as the game was over at half.The Cavs have been at their best at home where they are 9-0. - Cleveland is averaging 107.4 points at home and outscoring its opponents by 17.4 points while winning five straight on theri court. James scored 45 in his last home game against the Knicks and is averaging 38.3 points in four games versus New York since the start of last season. Cleveland is coming off Saturday's 97-85 win at Milwaukee. The Knicks who are playing seven players because of trades, injuries and the ongoing Stephon Marbury situation will try to just stay in the game as they lost to Portland 104-97 last night and has dropped six of eight. The Knicks led 75-71 after three quarters last night but with a limited bench they tired in the final period. They missed 10 of their first 12 shots in the fourth quarter and were outscored 19-5. The Knicks have lost their last three road games by an average of 13.3 points and this is just a bad spot as the tired New york Knicks playing a back to back face the Cavs who they can't match up with and rotating only 7 players. This game will be over early and the Blowout will continue.
TAKE CLEVELAND -14 1/2
Ben Burns
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Charlotte Bobcats
PICK: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder, who come in well-rested, have been playing much better since the coaching change and are 4-1 ATS their last five games. They won their last game (at Memphis) outright and that followed a 2-point loss at Minnesota. Charlotte has also been playing relatively well lately. That being said, this is a lot of points for a team like the Bobcats to be laying.
The Bobcats have just six wins in 17 games overall. Four of those wins came by nine points or less and only one of them came by more than 10 points. Note that Charlotte is just 1-3 ATS the last four times it was listed as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. While they lost the last meeting by three points, the Sonics were 5-3 all-time vs. the Bobcats. I expect the Thunder to give the Bobcats all they can handle again this evening. Consider Oklahoma City (1*)
Stephen Nover
Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks
PICK: Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are sitting in a pretty spot, idle since Saturday and catching Chicago playing in its eighth road matchup in its last nine games.
The Bulls tried to come back from a late deficit last night against Philadelphia, but lost in overtime. Four of the Bulls starters played major minutes with streak shooter Ben Gordon going nearly 46 minutes and rookie point guard Derrick Rose logging nearly 41 minutes.
So there could be some fatigue issues. The Bucks have tremendous motivation for this contest. They lost opening night to the Bulls at the United Center and Scott Skiles used to coach Chicago. You know he wants this victory bad.
Michael Redd, Milwaukee's top scorer, returned on Saturday after missing 14 games with an ankle sprain. Despite some obvious rust, he scored 20 points. He should do well here, averaging 32.5 points against the Bulls.
It's a plus if center Andrew Bogut returns for the Bucks tonight. The Bucks have a winning spread mark at home this season and are usually a solid investment when meeting Eastern Conference foes, going 9-2 against the spread.
Because the Bulls have a good bench and have won eight of their last nine versus the Bucks, including the past four, I make this a one-unit play.
David Malinsky
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Charlotte Bobcats
PICK: Oklahoma City Thunder
Much of our work is spent finding subtle edges to stay a step ahead of the oddsmakers and betting markets, since charity is rare in this endeavor – favorable situations are not just handed out. But we almost feel like we are dressed as a Salvation Army Santa for this one, as they give an opportunity to us keyed by the most basic of all concepts, as a team as bad as Charlotte should never, ever be favored in this price range.
OK, so perhaps there are some mathematical ratings that make the case somewhat plausible. But the reason why the underdogs work so well in these settings is that so much of the math is moot. Bad teams spend much of their time playing from behind against better opponents, which means that the statistics do not reflect the mind-set at hand for games like this. And when we do get these games we are getting the best of it from both directions. Here is the gist –
Bad teams rarely get a chance to win a game, or control a flow. The Bobcats are a classic example, as they are almost never in charge of the proceedings. So instead of doing the things that it takes to break a game open, we often find these teams playing conservatively with a lead, just trying to hang on and not give it away. That helps to keep the underdog in the hunt.
Then there is the flip side. Underdogs in these games know that they have a rare opportunity to score a road win. They see on film, and know by their history against some of the opposing players, that they are not overmatched. So instead of bringing a mind-set of just competing, they take to the court with a heightened focus, knowing that they can win the whole game. The Thunder bring that tonight, not only with the confidence of having won their last time out, but also of having taken Phoenix and Minnesota to the final possession as well under Scott Brooks – the reality is that they are just a bounce or two away from being 3-2 SU in his five games. And with three full days to prepare for this one, their longest time off since Brooks took over, we can expect the very best of what they can bring. That may not be much, but it is more then enough to get the money at this generous price.
MTi Sports
Game: Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Indiana Pacers
Boston has revenge motivation here, but they are laying a LOT of points to a decent team. The Celtics are professionals and are not motivated by revenge. As evidence, the Celtics are 0-15 ATS at home when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss. With the Pacers 6-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) as a dog with at most one day of rest after a win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two, the smart money just might be on the Pacers.
Wunderdog
Memphis at Atlanta
Pick: Memphis +9
The Hawks are a team on the rise in the NBA right now, but not sure they should be exalted as nearly double-digit chalk yet. They started faster than their growth profile should indicate at 6-0 and have fallen back to just 4-6 in their last ten. A growing team is going to ride the roller coaster during the course of a long season and that ride currently has them on the downhill side. The grizzlies aren't going to wake-up a sleeping team with their 4-13 record. The sleeping Hawks are just 0-5 ATS at home vs a team with a losing record, so the alarm clock doesn't go off for this one. Too many points and I'll back the Grizzlies.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Lakers/76ers OVER 200.5
The Lakers have gone over the total 5 straight games now. This is a talented team with lots of depth so I don't expect last night's shootout to affect LA on the offensive end, but it will on defense and that's why this one goes over. These teams have gone OVER in three straight meetings. The Lakers are 11-2 OVER after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, with the score totaling an average of 218.1 points in this spot. Take the OVER tonight.
BeatYourBookie
NCAA Basketball
(ACC-Big Ten Challenge Parlay)
100* Play Wake Forest (-23) over Indiana
Indiana is 0-8 SU as a road underdog of 10 points or more
Indiana is 3-12 ATS coming off an UNDER the total
100* Play Georgia Tech (-8) over Penn State
Penn State is 1-18 SU as a road underdog or pick the last 3 seasons
Penn State is 2-9 ATS after covering the spread in 2 of the last 3 games
100* Play Northwestern (-1.5) over Florida State
Northwestern is 11-1 SU when playing in the month of December
Northwestern is 22-8 SU in non-conference games the last 3 seasons
Bonus Hoops & Hockey Plays
50* Play New Orleans (-5) over Phoenix (NBA)
50* Play Ottawa (-185) over Atlanta (NHL)
Karl Garrett
Auburn +14 at XAVIER
Tonight I like the Auburn Tigers plus the very generous points at Xavier.
Last year, Xavier crushed Auburn on their home floor 80-57 as the near double-digit road favorite. Based on that result, and the fact the Tigers come into this one off a pair of road losses to Dayton, and Northern Iowa, the linesmakers are jacking this price up on the Musketeers.
Xavier has not covered in either of their lined home games this season, and the Muskies just scratched by with a home win over Miami-Ohio as the 8-point choice, failing against the number.
With Auburn looking for a little respect after last year's home court humiliation at the hands of the "X"-Men, look for Jeff Lebo's group to hang within the generous impost tonight at Xavier.
Take the points here.
3♦ AUBURN
Jeff Benton
Scored another easy free winner Tuesday as Duke routed Purdue, so I’m now 12-4 with complimentary releases over the past 16 days. For Wednesday, we’ll flip to the NBA and take the big points with the Pacers against the Celtics.
I know this is the classic letdown situation, what with Indiana coming off last night’s shocking buzzer-beating victory over the one-loss Lakers and now having to travel to Beantown to face a 17-2 Celtics team that’s won nine consecutive games. And maybe the Pacers do get punked by 20-plus points, as there’s no doubt that Boston has picked up where it left off last year. There’s also no doubt that the Celtics will be very motivated tonight, seeing that one of their two losses this season came at Indiana on Nov. 1. And it wasn’t just a loss, it was a beat-down, as the Pacers rolled 95-79 as a six-point underdog.
That said, I used the Pacers as my Best Bet last night in part because Indiana has been a tremendous big underdog this year, now 5-1 ATS when catching seven points or more, including 3-0 ATS when getting eight or more. Tonight, Indiana is a two-touchdown underdog … the biggest spread the Pacers have faced since opening night in Detroit, when they lost 100-94 but covered as a 10½-point ‘dog.
Meanwhile, Boston may be 17-2, but the C’s are just 9-9 against the number, including 4-6 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS as a double-digit chalk. Also, the underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 Pacers-Celtics matchups.
Finally, as mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, Indiana can put the ball in the hole, as it has scored more than 90 points in every game this season, including topping triple digits five times in the last eight games. Considering Boston shot just 34.6 percent in that 95-79 loss at Indiana a month ago, and considering the Celtics haven’t scored more than 104 points in any of their last seven meetings with Indiana, these big points are too good to pass up.
3♦ INDIANA PACERS
Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take the Grizz in Hotlanta.
Atlanta is a better team than Memphis, especially of late, but I like this young Grizz team and to get almost double digits with a stud in the making in OJ Mayo is enough for me. And believe me I know how Memphis has dropped six in a row and eight of 9 both SU and ATS including that last game against the horrible Thunder.
The Hawks are possibly in the midst of a breakout season led by Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford and Mike Bibby. The foursome is extremely legit and very very good. With that said though it's still a large number to lay at Philips Arena knowing that Mike Woodson's squad has dropped four straight on their home floor at the window. That shows me that no matter how improved the franchise is they still cannot be laying real numbers like this.
Memphis is not going anywhere this season but at least there is somewhat of an upside. OJ Mayo is great and making that Mayo for Kevin Love deal look more and more like a steal every day. Throw in Marc Gasol and Rudy Gay and the 4-12 Grizz are really not as dreadful as the recent run may indicate.
The Hawks should win the game but I think it'll be more competitive than the so-called experts seem to think.
Gina
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
The line is huge at 14½, justifiably so. Last week LeBron James and crew visited the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, hammered them, 119-101. Cleveland has won fourteen of their 15 games, nine straight at home. Meanwhile, New York has struggle as of late, dropping six of its last eight games. Go with the hot Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena to beat-up on the NY Knicks again. Cleveland has beaten the Knicks in the last two contests at home, 10-3 in the last 13.
Cleveland Cavaliers -14½
Johnny Guild
Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards
The (3-12) Wizards are struggling without Point Guard Gilbert Arenas and Center Brendan Haywood this season. They are just 2-6 both straight-up and against the spread in their last 10 games at home. Look for the hot (13-6) Blazers to grab their six straight win and third on the road tonight at Washington, against the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Portland is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 clashes at Verizon Center and has won the last six versus Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 ATS.
Portland Trail Blazers -7