Tony Karpinski
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers-8.5
Look for a major bounce back from one of the best teams in the NBA tonight. The Lakers just blew a 16-point lead at Indiana last night, Los Angeles will be out for blood tonight against Philadelphia.
The Sixers stopped their 4-game losing streak by winning the back end of a home-and-home last night in overtime at Chicago. They have to travel tonight as well, so not much home court advantage plus the OT game will have them winded. Have to expect the 76ers will be a little gassed in this one tonight, and they have not been able to match up too well with the Lakers in recent meetings.
Los Angeles swept last year’s season series both straight up, and against the spread, and the Lake-Show has won 3 of the last 4 series meetings SU & ATS as well. Last night’s loss was the first of the season on the road for LA, as the Lakers still sport a positive 5-1 road mark, and a 4-2 against the spread road mark. Play on the Lakers minus the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Utah Jazz -3.5
The Jazz are one of the strongest home teams in the NBA at 8-2 on the season and we will take them laying a small number tonight. Miami is just 3-7 ATS on the road this season and has lost 4 of its last 5 against the number. Its road struggles come as no surprise as the defense has been awful, allowing 102.1 ppg on the road. Utah is winning its home games by an average of 8.8 ppg and I expect that number to climb even higher now that All-Star point guard Deron Williams is healthy. Even without Boozer, the Jazz have the depth to beat the Heat and cover the number tonight. The Heat are just 5-24-2 ATS in their last 31 games following a SU win. The Jazz are 45-20-2 ATS in their last 67 home games and 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Lay the number.
Nostradamus
Niagara -8
Penn st +7.5
Maryland -6
Tulane -1.5
San Francisco -4
Milwaukee -3.5
Pittsburgh +100
Chicago -140
TOMMY RIDER
Siena -7.5 (2 units)
Having grown up in the Albany area, I follow Siena closely and I thought last week their lines against the big boys were way too low. This is a good team but they aren't in Tennessee's class. Yet, the public is in love with this Saints squad and a lot of people still took them with the low number. Now Siena is back where they will outclass everyone in the MAAC. This team is too talented and too deep for teams like Loyola to handle. Loyola has already gotten hammered by BC, Cornell and Davidson. They are struggling on the defensive end of the court right now and that's not good news when facing the explosive Saints. Siena will run the Greyhounds right out of the gym tonight and they should win this one by 20. Good luck.
VEGAS-RUNNER COMP PLAY
2* NORTHWESTERN -1.5
Michael Cannon
Minnesota at ORLANDO -9'
A nice winner on the Pacers last night as they get it done at home over the Lakers.
Take the Magic minus the points at home tonight over the Timberwolves.
Orlando’s starting five leads the league in combined scoring, with all of them averaging at least 13 ppg.
The key to taking the Magic down right now is having a strong bench, which Minnesota does not have.
The Timberwolves starters can’t match the talent that Orlando has, except for Al Jefferson.
Take the Magic minus the points as they grab the double-digit home win and cover.
3♦ ORLANDO
Oklahoma City +8' at CHARLOTTE
Take the points with Oklahoma City tonight on the road over Charlotte.
I’m not calling for the Thunder to win outright, but this pointspread is ridiculous. The Bobcats struggle to score points, much like the Thunder do.
With two teams laying up bricks all night, I have trouble seeing how Charlotte is going to cover this number.
Kevin Durant is talented enough to carry his team and keep this one within the number.
Take the points as Oklahoma City stays within the number on the road.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Drew Gordon
Chicago at MILWUAKEE -4
Tough spot for the Bulls, who come into this game on the tail end of a back-to-back, after losing a tough overtime game against the 76ers last night. As far as the situation is concerned, this is definately a go-against spot when discussing the Bulls, but that's hardly the only reason why...
Also, on the flip side, the Bucks are well-rested and should be well-prepared, having last played Saturday. While its true they've lost 4 straight, you have to remember they just got Michael Redd back in their last one, after he missed 14 games with an ankle injury. With one game under his belt to remove some rust, I'm looking for the Bucks and Redd to go full-bore against the visiting Bulls in this one.
Not only will rest and prepardeness be a factor, but the Bucks lost bad in their only match up against the Bulls this season back in late-October, and I expect they'll be looking to exact some revenge tonight at home. While Chicago's offense has shown some consistency on the road, you just can't say the same for their defense, allowing 104 ppg on 47% shooting when they travel. That's simply not good enough against a motivated Bucks team, that's desperate to snap their losing streak.
Bottom line, look for a well-rested, highly motivated Bucks team to protect their house in this one. The Bulls have been unimpressive on the road, and the Bucks come into this contest undervalued because of their losing streak. Look for the return of Redd to signal better things for this Milwaukee team, as they get the solid home win and cover here.
Take Milwaukee over Chicago in this NBA match up.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
Dennis Macklin
Game: Miami Heat at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Over
Sometimes you have to throw all the handicapping stuff out the window and just plain and simple look at what you have. The Jazz are a mash unit and were life and death to beat a fiesty but outmatched King outfit last night trailing in all but the final three minutes. The Heat's achilles heal is their lack of height and physciality butthat won't come into play here with Boozer and Kirilenko in street clothes. Marion figures to have a big 25/20 game and you know that Flash (D Wade) and Deron Williams will get theirs in an up and down game. This one figure to fall closer to 220 than the posted line of 200. Play the over.
DOC
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
PICK: Over
We think the Cavs will have their way with the Knicks tonight and the sky is the limit as to how much they can score. Last night we went big on the Under in the Portland/New York game and, similarly to the Cavs, the Blazers are a strong defensive team. But the Blazers don’t score a lot offensively but that is not going to be a problem with Cleveland. The Cavs have scored 100 or more in four of their last five games and they come into this game well rested and will have a field day on the offensive end in what will be a highly-paced game. We think they will top 120 tonight and the Knicks will make up the rest to get this one over the posted number. Cleveland scored 119 in both of the last two meetings between these clubs, both in NYC. They should do even better tonight in front of the home crowd. The over is 7-3 in the Knicks last 10 overall and 6-2 in the Cavs last eight home games. Five straight in this series have gone over the posted number.
Scott Rickenbach
Penn State @ Georgia Tech
PICK: Penn State
My write-ups with my guaranteed picks are much longer than these write-ups. However, to be clear here, there are big edges with Penn State getting this many points in this match-up. This team is not like Nittany Lions teams of old. They've got good speed and athleticism as well as key veteran players. Additionally, they've gotten off to a quick start this season and that gives them a lot of confidence as they head down to Georgia Tech for this game. The Yellow Jackets are struggling badly at the free throw line and we just don't see them as being able to pull away in this one by any kind of margin. That said, consider grabbing the big points with Penn State in this one on Wednesday night!
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Illinois-Chicago +10
Illinois-Chicago is on the rise, why Vanderbilt is on the fall. Vandy made the NCAA Tournament last season, but they have lost 57% of their players’ minutes from that team including leading score Shan Foster and his 20.3 points/game. Also gone is reliable Alex Gordon and his 10.8 points/game. Illinois-Chicago brings back 3 starters from a team that went 18-15 last season, including a solid 18-12 ATS mark. This team is primed for a big season. Vanderbilt is 8-25 ATS versus poor shooting teams - making <=42% of their shots since 1997. Although Illinois-Chicago is shooting sub-par from the field, they are still scoring 70.6 points/game behind a 35.3% 3-point shooting percentage and a 79.1% free throw percentage. Illinois-Chicago is averaging 18 made free throws per game. This is an aggressive team that knows how to get to the charity stripe, and they are shooting lights out from deep as well. They also play great defense on the road, yielding just 60.5 points/game. Illinois-Chicago is 11-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. Vanderbilt is 2-9 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with Illinois-Chicago as the underdog.
Larry Ness
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics
PICK: Boston Celtics
I can make this one short and 'sweet.' The Pacers handed the Lakers (14-2) just their second loss of the season last night. The Pacers outscored LA 32-16 in the 4th quarter of last night's game, winning it 118-117 on Troy Murphy's tip-in at the buzzer. As luck would have (or luck for that matter), Indiana must visit Boston tonight, to face the 17-2 Celtics. You may remember that the Celtics are the defending champs and own the NBA's stingiest defense, allowing opponents 9-0.0 PPG and to shoot just 40.8 percent from the floor. If last night's upset didn't grab Boston's attention, the reminder of the Celtics' 95-79 loss at Indiana on Nov 1, just may? The Celtics shot 34.6 percent (4-20 on threes) in that game. It's "wrong place and wrong time" tonight for the Pacers. Lay it.
Info Plays
3* on Cleveland Cavaliers -14.5
Reasons why the Cavaliers cover the spread Wednesday:
1.) Yes, this is a huge spread, but the Cavs just recently beat the Knicks by 18 points in New York just over a week ago today. The Knicks are in shambles right now, trying to find their identity as a team while dealing with Stephon Marbury questions through the media on a nightly basis. The Knicks have now lost 6 of their last 8 games overall, losing those 6 contests by 10, 9, 17, 18, 14, and 7 points. They have barely been competitive, and the Cleveland Cavs will make easy work of the Knicks tonight.
2.) Cleveland is 9-0 SU at home and 7-2 ATS in home games. The Cavs have yet to lose a home game, and they are destroying teams in the process. Cleveland scores 107.4 PPG at home while yielding just 93.2 PPG. So they are already winning their home games by 14.2 PPG, and should not have a problem topping their average against the terrible Knicks Wednesday. Cleveland has won 5 straight overall, with two of their wins coming on the road even. The won by 14, 18, 35, 15, and 12 points in those five victories. The Cavs are simply killing teams right now, and that won’t stop tonight when the hated Knicks come to town.
3.) System Plays. We’ll Play On - Home favorites (CLEVELAND) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game. This is a 52-25 ATS System hitting 67.5% over the last 5 seasons. We’ll also Play On - Home favorites (CLEVELAND) - hot team - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. This is a 74-36 ATS System hitting 67.3% over the last 5 seasons. This is a team that is playing rested, having played their last game on Saturday, November 29th. Cleveland will be antsy to get back on the floor and crush another opponent in their friendly home confines tonight. Bet Cleveland at home.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5
Washington got a rare win last night over New Jersey, but the Wizards will revert back to their old losing ways against a red-hot Portland Trail Blazers’ team tonight. Portland is 13-6 this season, winning 5 games in a row heading into this contest. During this 5-game stretch, the Blazers are scoring 99.6 points and allowing just 85.2 point. These games haven’t even been close, and with Greg Oden emerging as one of the better centers in the game, the Blazers are hitting on all cylinders. Washington is just 3-12 this season, going 2-6 SU and 2-6 ATS in all home games. Washington is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Portland is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Blazers are 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Portland has been a very profitable team to back when they reel off a couple wins in a row. We’ll ride the gravy train tonight. Take the Blazers and lay the points.
Andre Gomes
MIL -4.0 vs CHI
For this game, there are several factors that make the Bucks as a small favorite be a good bet tonight. From the psychological point of view, this team has some business to take care against the Bulls. After all, these two teams faced each other in the first game of the season and the Bulls in a very easy game for them. Certainly this remained in the mind of the players of Milwaukee and specially on their coach Scott Skiles, who as a former coach of the Bulls will want to get revenge over his former club even more than if this was a normal game.
The Bucks have been competitive the whole season and for some reason they are 12-6-1 ATS, even with a SU record of just 7-12. They lost their last game against Cleveland by 85-97, in a game where they frontcourt of the Cavs totally dominated them, with Ben Wallace and Iglauskas giving no chances to them. Z shot 11-17 FG for 23 points and these two players almost doubled on their own the number of offensive rebounds the whole team of the Bucks had in that game (12 vs 7). However, this won't happen in this game, as the Bulls just have Gooden as their big man and he isn't as strong as Big Ben for example. If he was, he wouldn't have left Cleveland and Big Ben wouldn't have joined them!
The Bulls are coming to this game with a terrible spot. They completed their anual road trip to comeback home and face the Sixers. The team ended up losing by 95-103, in a game which went to overtime. Now they have to play on the road in the following day and that certainly isn't the best spot for them. Michael Redd cameback from injury in the last game of the Bucks against Cleveland and he was still a little bit rusty. He finished the game with 5-16 FG and 20 points, but after that the team practised and he felt better and will start the game tonight. There is also chance of Andrew Bogut coming back from injury tonight and with that, the Bucks would have an huge presence in the paint.
Milwaukee is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record and Scott Skiles is 16-5 ATS in home games when playing with 3 or more days of rest in all games he has coached. Take Milwaukee in here.