Wednesday Service Plays

Marc Lawrence

Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder
PICK: Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder plays host to the Warriors in Okie City with revenge on their minds from a 10-point loss suffered here earlier this month. With Golden State just 4-16 SU and 7-13 ATS on the road this season and entering tonight game off a same-season revenge win over Toronto in their last game, look for the Thunder to strike Lightning here tonight.

We recommend a 1-unit play on Oklahoma City.

Jorge Gonzalez

Air Force vs. Houston U
Play: Houston U -3.5

The Houston Cougars will be looking for revenge for their earlier loss this season to the Air Force Falcons. Despite losing the game 31-28, the Cougars out gained the Falcons 534-380. The Houston game was moved due to the hurricane, which was an obvious distraction to the home team Cougars. Houston quarterback Case Keenum threw for 43 touchdowns and just 10 interception on the season. Keenum is number one in the country in total yards averaging 411 yards per contest. The Cougars will be facing the triple option for the second time this season and have had plenty of time to prepare for it this time. The Falcons had trouble against the other three teams they faced with a winning record losing all three games. All three teams had explosive offenses. The Cougars have scored 40 or more points in six of their last seven games. I look for the Cougars to get a big lead early and run away with the game. Take the Cougars.

SPORTS ADVISORS

ARMED FORCES BOWL

Air Force (8-4, 7-4 ATS) vs. Houston (7-5, 4-7 ATS) (at Fort Worth, Texas)

Air Force and Houston hook up for the second time this season, this time in the Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

These schools were originally scheduled to meet on Sept. 13 at Houston’s Robertson Stadium, but because of the impending arrival of Hurricane Ike, the game was switched to SMU’s campus stadium in Dallas. Air Force jumped out to a 31-7 lead and held on for a 31-28 victory as a 2½-point road underdog. Houston actually had a 534-380 edge in total offense, with all 380 of Air Force’s yards coming on the ground as the Falcons went 0-for-7 passing in the game.

After the loss to Air Force, Houston went to Colorado State and stumbled 28-25 as a six-point road favorite, but from there the Cougars closed the regular season on a 6-2 surge (4-4 ATS). However, a season-ending 56-42 loss at Rice as a 3½-point road favorite Nov. 29 cost the Cougars the Conference USA West Division title.

The Falcons had a roller-coaster season, as they followed up the win over Houston with consecutive losses to Utah and Navy by a total of 13 points, then went on a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) before concluding with blowout losses to BYU (38-24 as a three-point home underdog) and TCU (44-10 as a 20½-point road pup).

This is Air Force’s second straight trip to the Armed Forces Bowl. Last year, in coach Troy Calhoun’s first season with the Academy, the Falcons built a 21-0 lead against Cal but couldn’t close the deal, falling 42-36 as a four-point underdog. Meanwhile, this is Houston’s fourth consecutive bowl appearance and its fifth in the last six years, but the Cougars are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last four postseason contests, including last year’s 20-13 loss to TCU as a 6½-point underdog in the Texas Bowl.

Air Force puts up 26.7 points and 348.8 total yards per outing, and the Falcons ranked fifth in the nation in rushing at 268.8 yards per game (4.5 per carry). However, they were held to 24 points or less in four of their final five contests.

Houston led the nation in total offense at 575.1 yards per game, ranked second in passing offense (417.3 ypg) and 10th in scoring offense (41.2 points per game). Sophomore QB Case Keenum completed 67.3 percent of his passes for an NCAA-best 4,761 yards with 43 TDs (2nd best in the nation) and just 10 INTs. The Cougars scored at least 41 points in seven of their final eight contests.

Defensively, Air Force gives up only 21.2 points and 335.3 total yards per game, including 195.7 passing ypg. Meanwhile, the Cougars surrendered 31.2 points and 418.6 total yards per game, including 169.5 rushing ypg (4.2 per carry), and over its last six games, Houston allowed 30 points or more five times.

Houston is mired in ATS funks of 4-12 overall, 0-9 away from home (0-6 this year), 0-6 when laying points on the highway, 2-9 as a favorite in any location, 0-4 at neutral sites, 0-4 in non-conference play and 2-6 against winning teams. Air Force is on positive pointspread stretches of 14-5 overall, 13-5 on grass, 6-2 against Conference USA foes and 4-1 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points, but the Falcons have failed to cash in nine of their last 13 against winning teams.

For Air Force, the over is on runs of 10-4 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 4-0 as an underdog and 6-1 in December. Also, Houston is on “over” streaks of 5-0 against winning teams and 4-1 in December, and this year’s Falcons-Cougars clash in Dallas soared over the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: AIR FORCE and OVER

SUN BOWL

(18) Pittsburgh (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. (24) Oregon State (8-4 SU and ATS) (at El Paso, Texas)

After blowing a chance for its first Rose Bowl berth in more than 40 years, Oregon State had to settle for a date with Pitt at the Sun Bowl in El Paso.

Needing a win in their season finale against archrival Oregon to clinch the Pac-10 title and their first Rose Bowl berth since 1964, the Beavers got steamrolled 65-38 as a 2½-point home chalk. In addition to allowing a season high in points, Oregon State gave up 694 total yards, including 385 rushing yards. In fact, the Beavers got outgained 385-89 on the ground, and the loss snapped their six-game SU winning streak and halted an 8-1 ATS run.

The Panthers closed out the regular season with a pair of upset victories over West Virginia (19-15 as a three-point home underdog) and UConn (34-10 as a one-point road pup) to finish with their first nine-win season since 1982. Pitt won eight of its final 10 games, went 6-2 ATS down the stretch and held seven of its last 11 opponents to 21 points or less.

These teams last squared off in the 2002 Insight Bowl, with Oregon State rolling to a 38-13 victory as a 2½-point underdog. The Beavers are 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in postseason play under coach Mike Riley, including a 39-38 victory over Missouri in the 2006 Sun Bowl, but they fell short as a 3½-point favorite. Pitt is making its first bowl appearance under coach Dave Wannstedt and its first since a 35-7 loss to Utah in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowls.

Pitt averaged 29 points and 356 yards per game on offense, with the catalyst being sophomore RB LeSean McCoy, who averaged had 1,398 rushing yards (4.9 per carry), and his 21 TDs are tied for second in the nation. Last year, McCoy had 1,328 rushing yards (4.8 per carry) and 14 rushing TDs. QB Bill Stull passed for 2,308 yards (59.3 percent completion rate), but his nine TDs were offset by nine INTs.

Oregon State put up 32.8 points and 418.3 total yards per game, including 165 rushing yards per game (4.3 per carry). QB Lyle Moevao was the starter for most of the season, completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 2,196 yards, with 19 TDs and 11 INTs. In the season finale against Oregon, the junior threw five TD passes, but his two INTs were returned for touchdowns. True freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers (1,216 rushing yards, 5.6 ypc, 11 TDs) was second in the Pac-10 in rushing, but he missed the Oregon game and is doubtful today because of injury.

Both teams are fairly even defensively, with Oregon State yielding 25 points and 323 yards per game (134.5 rushing ypg), and the Panthers giving up 23 points and 320.8 yards per contest (127.8 rushing ypg).

Pitt went 5-1 on the highway this year (4-2 ATS), while Oregon State started the year with three straight road losses (1-2 ATS), but went 3-0 SU and 4-0 ATS away from home down the stretch.

In addition to its 8-2 ATS run overall, Oregon State is on pointspread streaks of 11-2 on artificial turf, 5-1 in December, 5-1 in bowl games, 7-1 after a double-digit home loss, 4-1 against winning teams, 6-2 after a non-cover and 21-9-1 as a favorite, but the Beavers are 1-4 ATS in their last five when laying a field goal or less. Pitt is on ATS stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 9-3 as an underdog, 8-3 on the highway since the start of last season, 5-2 in December and 6-2 on artificial turf, but the Panthers are 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven non-league games.

For Pitt, the under is on runs of 7-3 as an underdog, 7-3 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 as an underdog of three points or less. The under is also 7-3 in Oregon State’s last 10 non-conference games, but otherwise the Beavers are on “over” stretches of 4-1 in bowl games, 8-3 versus winning teams and 6-2 in December.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE

MUSIC CITY BOWL

Boston College (8-4, 7-5 ATS) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6, 7-5 ATS) (at Nashville, Tenn.)

Boston College looks to extend the nation’s longest bowl winning streak when it battles Vanderbilt, which is making its first bowl appearance since 1982.

The Eagles rode a regular season-ending four-game SU and ATS winning streak to their second straight ACC Atlantic Division title, but for the second straight year they fell apart in the ACC Championship Game against Virginia Tech, this time losing 30-12 as a one-point underdog. It was just the third time this year that Boston College gave up more than 27 points.

Vanderbilt qualified for its first bowl game in 26 years despite losing six of its final seven games after a 5-0 SU and ATS start. In the season finale on Nov. 29, the Commodores went to Wake Forest and fell 23-10 as a four-point underdog in a non-conference clash. Vandy’s shaky offense produced 14 points or less (nine total TDs) in seven of its final eight games, going 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS during this stretch.

Boston College, which is in its 10th straight bowl game, knocked off Michigan State 24-21 in last year’s Citrus Bowl for its eighth straight postseason win (6-2 ATS), the longest current bowl winning streak. However, the Eagles came up short as a five-point favorite against the Spartans. One of Boston College’s recent postseason victories came in the 2001 Music City Bowl, a 20-16 triumph over Georgia as a four-point underdog.

The Eagles scored at least 21 points in 10 of their 13 games and finished averaging 25.5 points and 318.9 yards per contest, including 143.5 rushing ypg. Chris Crane (10 TDs, 13 INTs) started the year at quarterback but was lost for the season with a broken collarbone on Nov. 15. Freshman Domonique Davis took over under center and completed just 47.1 percent of his passes for 551 yards and four TDs.

Vanderbilt put up only 19.4 points and 261 total ypg, including a woeful 122.8 passing ypg. QBs Mackenzi Adams and Chris Nickson split time under center and combined to complete less than 50 percent of their throws for 1,426 yards, with 13 TDs and 11 INTs.

Both squads field rock-solid defenses. Boston College ranks in the Top 20 nationally in scoring defense (18.5 ppg, 19th), total defense (273.3 ypg, 6th), rushing defense (92.2 ypg, 7th) and yards per carry (2.9, tied for 9th). Vanderbilt yields per-game averages of 20.1 points, 318.7 total yards and 173.7 passing yards, but it gives up 145 ypg on the ground (3.8 per carry).

Boston College is 4-1 SU in its last five as a favorite, but 1-8 ATS in its last nine as a chalk away from home. Also, although they’ve cashed in six of their last eight bowl games, the Eagles are just 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral-site contests, 3-5 ATS in their last eight on grass and 0-4 ATS in their last four in December.

Vandy is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 as an underdog away from home and 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a pup in any locale, including 6-2 ATS when catching points this season, with three outright upsets on the highway. The Commodores are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight against winning teams.

For Boston College, the over is on runs of 7-2 overall and 5-1 as a favorite, but the under is 4-1 in its last five non-conference games and 12-5 in its last 17 on grass. Meanwhile, the Commodores sport nothing but “under” runs, including, 7-2 overall, 7-3 on grass, 11-4-1 as an underdog and 11-5-1 against winning teams.

This is just the third meeting between these schools, with the last coming in 1963.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE and UNDER

INSIGHT BOWL

Minnesota (7-5, 7-4 ATS) vs. Kansas (7-5, 6-5 ATS) (at Tempe, Ariz.)

Minnesota limps into its first postseason game since appearing in the 2006 Insight Bowl when it clashes with Kansas, which is going bowling for the third time in the last four seasons.

The Golden Gophers jumped out to a 7-1 start, with their only loss coming at Ohio State, but they fell flat on their faces down the stretch, losing their final four games (1-3 ATS) by a combined tally of 143-55. The worst of the four losses came in the regular-season finale against Iowa, a 55-0 whitewashing as a seven-point home favorite. In losing to the Hawkeyes, the Gophers were outgained 483-134, including 222-7 on the ground and 261-127 in the air.

Kansas endured a late-season 1-4 swoon, which included three losses to Top 10 Big 12 foes Oklahoma (45-31), Texas Tech (63-21) and Texas (35-7). But the Jayhawks got off the deck in their season finale Nov. 29 and pulled out a thrilling 40-37 victory over archrival Missouri in Kansas City, cashing as a 16-point underdog. QB Todd Reesing threw a game-winning 26-yard TD pass on fourth down with 27 seconds left, and the teams combined for 916 yards of total offense (438 for Kansas).

The Jayhawks earned an at-large BCS berth last year and took full advantage, knocking off Virginia Tech 24-21 as a three-point underdog in the Orange Bowl to cap a 12-1 season. Kansas is 2-1 SU and ATS in bowl games under coach Mark Mangino.

Minnesota suffered one of the biggest collapses in recent bowl memory in its last postseason appearance, blowing a 31-point lead in losing 44-41 to Texas Tech in the 2006 Insight Bowl, though the Gophers cashed as a seven-point underdog. The Gophers are 3-0 ATS in their last three bowl games as an underdog, and each of their last four postseason contests was decided by four points or less.

With Reesing (65.7 percent, 3,573 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs) running the show, the Jayhawks averaged 32.7 points and 431 total yards per game (129 rushing ypg). The only teams to hold Kansas under 29 points were Texas and Texas Tech. Defensively, after giving up a total of 10 points in season-opening wins over Florida International and Louisiana Tech, the Jayhawks allowed 33 points or more seven times in their final 10 games, including an average of 41 ppg in their final five outings.

The Gophers were held to 17 points or fewer in four of their last five games and finished the year averaging 23.4 ppg and 322.2 ypg (105.8 rushing ypg). Sophomore QB Adam Weber took all the snaps under center, completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,585 yards, with 14 TDs and eight INTs. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota held five of its first seven foes to 20 points or less, but during their season-ending four-game slide, the Gophers gave up an average of 35.8 ppg.

Kansas is on ATS runs of 12-7 overall, 15-4 as a favorite (3-3 ATS as a chalk this season), 5-0 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 7-1 in non-conference games, 10-4 versus winning teams and 4-1 on grass. Minnesota is on pointspread streaks of 7-3 overall, 5-2 on grass and 6-1 as an underdog, including 4-1 ATS as a pup this season. However, the Golden Gophers have failed to cover in 17 of their last 25 games when catching between 3½ and 10 points.

The over for Kansas is on tears of 5-1 overall, 5-0 away from home this season and 4-0 on grass, but the under is 5-2 in its last seven as a favorite. Minnesota has stayed low in five of its last seven contests overall, but the over is 8-1 in the Gophers’ last nine non-league games and 5-1 in its last six as an underdog.

These schools have split six previous meetings on the gridiron, the last being in 1973.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL

LSU (7-5, 2-9 ATS) vs. (14) Georgia Tech (9-3, 8-2 ATS) (at Atlanta)

One season after capturing its second national championship of the decade, LSU finds itself relegated to this New Year’s Eve contest against red-hot Georgia Tech, which is playing just two miles from its home stadium in Atlanta.

The Tigers defeated Ohio State 38-24 as a 3½-point favorite in last year’s BCS Championship Game at the Superdome for their second national title since 2003. But after jumping out to a 4-0 start (1-2 ATS) this season, Les Miles’ squad hit the skids, going 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS, including six straight non-covers to close the year. In a fitting end to a disappointing season, LSU went to Arkansas on Nov. 28 and gave up a 24-yard TD pass on fourth down with 21 seconds to play to turn a 30-24 win into a 31-30 loss.

Georgia Tech capped a breakthrough season under first-year coach Paul Johnson with impressive season-ending wins over Miami (41-23 as a three-point home favorite) and rival Georgia (45-42 as a 7½-point road underdog). In the two victories, the Yellow Jackets set season records for points and racked up an astounding 881 rushing yards. In fact, they outgained Miami and Georgia on the ground by a combined 625 yards.

These schools last met in the 2000 Peach Bowl, with LSU upsetting No. 15 Georgia Tech 28-14 as an 8½-point underdog. However, the Jackets are 12-6 SU all-time in this series.

Ten of the last 16 ACC-SEC matchups in the Chick-fil-A Bowl have been decided by a touchdown or less.

Georgia Tech is in its 12th straight bowl game and is 22-14 all-time, but 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS) in the last three, including last year’s 40-28 loss to Fresno State as a 5½-point favorite in the Humanitarian Bowl. Meanwhile, the Tigers have set a school record with their ninth consecutive bowl appearance, and they’ve won and covered all three postseason games under Miles.

The Yellow Jackets averaged 26.2 ppg, and even though they netted just 95 passing ypg, their triple-option attack ranked third in the nation with 282.3 rushing ypg and sixth in yards per carry (5.6). RBs Jonathan Dwyer (1,328 yards, 7 ypc, 12 TDs) and Roddy Jones (651 yards, 9.3 ypc, 4 TDs) led the ground attack, and sophomore QB Josh Nesbitt contributed 1,289 combined rushing and receiving yards and nine combined TDs, while throwing four INTs.

LSU put up 30.3 points and 371.8 total yards per game (167.2 rushing ypg), and the Tigers scored 30 points or more seven times. Injuries at QB forced Miles to go with Jarrett Lee for much of the season, and the sophomore struggled, completing 53.2 percent of his throws for 1,873 yards, with 13 TDs and a whopping 16 INTs, seven of which were returned for touchdowns.

Georgia Tech allowed just 18.8 points and 312.7 total yards per game (116.9 rushing ypg), while the Tigers got torched for 26 points on just 326.5 total yards per outing (105.8 rushing ypg). Both teams gave up an average of 31 points and more than 395 yards in their final three games, with LSU allowing exactly 31 in its last three.

LSU has been a pointspread disaster recently, going 4-16-2 ATS in its last 22 overall, 0-4 ATS in its last four as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in its last four against winning teams. However, the Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last eight December outings and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 non-SEC contests.

Conversely, in addition to its 8-2 ATS record for the season, Georgia Tech is on pointspread runs of 5-1 as a favorite, 11-5-1 in non-conference games and 4-1 after a spread-cover, though the Jackets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in December.

The over for LSU is on runs of 15-5 overall, 7-1 away from home, 5-2 in bowl games, 11-3 against winning teams and 10-4 following a pointspread setback. And the over for Georgia Tech is on streaks of 6-0 in bowl games, 5-0 with the Jackets a favorite, 4-1 at neutral sites, 4-0 in non-conference play and 4-1 in December.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and OVER

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

(10) Michigan State (9-2, 4-4 ATS) at (21) Minnesota (12-0, 5-2 ATS)

After blowing through its non-conference schedule with a perfect record, Minnesota tips off its Big Ten season with a tough early-afternoon matchup against 10th-ranked Michigan State.

The Gophers are off to their best start in 60 years, and they capped their non-conference season with their most dominant win to date, routing High Point 82-56 in a non-lined home game. Three of Minnesota’s last four wins have come against non-lined competition, with the one exception being a surprising 70-64 upset of then-No. 9 Louisville as a nine-point underdog on a neutral court in Glendale, Ariz., two weeks ago. The last time Minnesota started a season with 13 straight wins was in 1948-49.

Since any ugly 98-63 loss to North Carolina as a 10-point underdog in Detroit on Dec. 3, Michigan State has ripped off five straight wins (2-1 ATS in lined action). The Spartans followed up a 67-63 upset win over Texas as a 5½-point underdog with Saturday’s 82-66 rout of Oakland in a non-lined game. Seven of Michigan State’s nine non-conference victories were by double digits.

The Spartans have won three straight meetings against Minnesota and eight of the last nine, going just 5-4 ATS during this stretch. Last year, Michigan State prevailed 65-59 as an 11-point home chalk and 78-73 as a one-point road favorite. The host has cashed in 10 of the last 14 meetings, with the Gophers going 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes in Minnesota.

Minnesota, which has scored 80 points or more in four of its last eight games, averages 74.8 ppg while making 48.1 percent of its shots, and the Gophers surrender 61.6 ppg on 38.6 percent shooting. Meanwhile, Michigan State has scored 75 or more in six games, including four of the last five, and the Spartans net 79.5 ppg (49 percent shooting) and give up 68 ppg (41.6 percent).

Michigan State closed out last season on a 4-1 ATS run in Big Ten action, but Tom Izzo’s team is just 1-5 ATS in its last six lined games following a SU win. The Gophers have cashed in four straight lined contests (all at home), but they ended last year in a 1-4 ATS slump against Big Ten foes.

The under is on runs of 4-1 for the Spartans overall, 5-2 for the Spartans on the road, 4-1 for the Spartans after a SU win, 16-5 for Minnesota overall, 35-17 for Minnesota at home and 7-0 for Minnesota in league play. Finally, five of the last seven series meetings have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER

Wisconsin (9-3, 5-5 ATS) at (23) Michigan (10-2, 6-1 ATS)

Off to a surprising start after finishing 12 games under .500 last year, Michigan opens Big Ten play with a battle against Wisconsin, which is looking to defend its Big Ten regular-season crown.

The Wolverines closed out non-conference play with five straight victories, the first being a shocking 81-73 upset of then-No. 4 and unbeaten Duke as a 10-point home underdog. That victory came just two weeks after Michigan lost 71-56 to the Blue Devils at Madison Square Garden in New York. The Wolverines’ only other loss came in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a 75-70 setback at Maryland as a 5½-point underdog. Since beating Duke, Michigan has posted four blowout wins by margins of 31, 13, 17 and 20 points.

Wisconsin has been idle since Dec. 23, when it fell to ninth-ranked Texas 74-69 as a one-point home favorite. Since starting out 4-0, the Badgers have gone 5-3 in their last eight games (4-3 ATS), with all three defeats coming against the only ranked teams they’ve faced (Texas, Marquette and UConn). Bo Ryan’s team averaged only 61.3 ppg in its three losses.

Wisconsin has won eight of the last 10 against the Wolverines, including a current four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS). On its way to the Big Ten regular-season title last year, the Badgers beat Michigan three times, winning 70-54 as an 8½-point road chalk, 64-61 as 17½-point home favorite and 51-34 as a 13-point favorite in the Big Ten Tournament. The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, the host is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six.

The Badgers allow opponents to shoot 43 percent from the field, but they’re still only allowing 59.7 ppg, holding nine of 12 foes to 61 points or less. Offensively, Wisconsin has scored more than 70 points just three times. Michigan averages 74.8 ppg (44.7 percent shooting) and gives up 62.2 ppg (40.4 percent), but during its five-game winning streak, John Beilein’s squad has outscored its opponents by 18 ppg (83-65).

The Badgers are on ATS streaks of 7-1 in Big Ten play, 6-2 on the road (3-2 this year), 5-1 after an outright loss, 6-0 after a non-cover and 7-1 when playing on Wednesday. Michigan has cashed in all four home games this season, but it ended last year in pointspread funks of 1-4 in conference play and 1-7-1 on Wednesday.

The under is on runs of 12-5 for Michigan overall, 10-1 for Michigan in Big Ten action, 20-8 for Wisconsin in league play and 5-1 for Wisconsin following a SU loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER

NBA

Denver (20-12, 17-14-1 ATS) at Toronto (12-19, 11-19-1 ATS)

The Raptors return from a rough Western Conference road swing to take on another non-conference opponent in the Nuggets, who continue a four-game road trip with a stop at the Air Canada Centre.

Toronto lost to Golden State 117-111 as a 1½-point road chalk Monday night for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback, capping a six-game trip with a 2-4 SU mark (2-3-1 ATS). Chris Bosh (30 points, 14 rebounds) and Jose Calderon (21 points, 16 assists) had big nights, and the Raptors outrebounded the Warriors 49-37. But Golden State hit 50 percent overall from the floor and 50 percent on 3-pointers (12 of 24), while also knocking down 29 of 33 free throws.

Denver got drubbed at Atlanta 109-91 as a five-point road pup Monday, halting a two-game SU surge. The Nuggets had five players in double figures, but they topped out at Kenyon Martin’s 19-point effort. The game was won from long distance, as Denver went just 5 of 15 from 3-point range, while allowing the Hawks to knock down 12 of 23 attempts from beyond the arc.

Denver has won and covered in the last three meetings with Toronto, including a 132-93 wipeout as a five-point home favorite at the beginning of December – easily the Raptors’ worst defeat of the season so far. The Nuggets are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to the Air Canada Centre.

The Raptors are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 20-41-1 overall, 3-11 at home 1-8 against the Northwest Division, 1-4-1 after a SU loss, 8-22-1 against winning teams and 7-19-1 against the West. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are on a 2-6 ATS purge overall and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five roadies, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 4-0 when playing on one day’s rest, 8-3 as a favorite of less than six points and 11-1 against the Atlantic Division (only non-cover coming at Atlanta on Monday).

The over is 4-1 in Toronto’s last five overall and 6-1 in Denver’s last seven non-conference contests, but the under has hit in the Raptors’ last four home games and is on further runs for Toronto of 5-1 after a day off and 7-3 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is on a 4-1-1 stretch in games played in Toronto.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER

DUNKEL

Orlando at Chicago
The Bulls look to build on their 4-1 ATS record at home when the total is listed between 200 and 204 1/2. Chicago is the underdog pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by just 3. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+6 1/2).

Game 701-702: Orlando at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 123.705; Chicago 120.734
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 3; 209 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 6 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+6 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: New Jersey at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 113.991; Detroit 121.857
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 8; 186 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 705-706: Milwaukee at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 118.847; Houston 124.860
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 6; 186 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 8; 189
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+8); Under

Game 707-708: Denver at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 118.568; Toronto 119.536
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 207 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 709-710: Golden State at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 113.061; Oklahoma City 114.079
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 208 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 2 1/2; 218
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+2 1/2); Under

Game 711-712: Philadelphia at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 116.704; LA Clippers 110.701
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 6; 206 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3; 189
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Over

NCAAB DUNKEL

Pittsburgh at Rutgers
The Panthers have a tricky road game against a Scarlet Knight team that is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Rutgers is the underdog pick (+15 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Pitt favored by just 12. Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+15 1/2).

Game 713-714: Harvard at William & Mary
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 47.380; William & Mary 54.228
Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 7
Vegas Line: William & Mary by 6
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (-6)

Game 715-715: Northwestern at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 64.305; Penn State 65.360
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 1
Vegas Line: Penn State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+3 1/2)

Game 716-717: Northeastern at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 56.560; Memphis 72.003
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Memphis by 17
Dunkel Pick: Northeastern (+17)

Game 719-720: Wisconsin at Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 64.449; Michigan 71.850
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan by 3
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-3)

Game 721-722: Creighton at Indiana State
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 65.509; Indiana State 54.569
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 11
Vegas Line: Creighton by 9
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-9)

Game 723-724: Towson at NC State
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 50.627; NC State 66.848
Dunkel Line: NC State by 16
Vegas Line: NC State by 15
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-15)

Game 725-726: Pittsburgh at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 71.748; Rutgers 59.735
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+15 1/2)

Game 727-728: Missouri State at Drake
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 58.965; Drake 63.919
Dunkel Line: Drake by 5
Vegas Line: Drake by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (+6 1/2)

Game 729-730: Evansville at Illinois State
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 60.220; Illinois State 66.758
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+8)

Game 731-732: St. John's at Providence
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 61.237; Providence 69.123
Dunkel Line: Providence by 8
Vegas Line: Providence by 9
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (+9)

Game 733-734: Iowa at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 64.489; Ohio State 70.688
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 6
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 9
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+9)

Game 735-736: Texas A&M at Rice
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 64.947; Rice 53.835
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 11
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-8 1/2)

Game 737-738: Bowling Green at Duquesne
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 51.134; Duquesne 59.444
Dunkel Line: Duquesne by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Duquesne by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duquesne (-6 1/2)

Game 739-740: UL Lafayette at LSU
Dunkel Ratings: UL Lafayette 49.530; LSU 67.015
Dunkel Line: LSU by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: LSU by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-15 1/2)

Game 741-742: Middle Tennessee State at North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 57.578; North Texas 54.783
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 3
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-1)

Game 743-744: Drexel at St. Joseph's
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 47.037; St. Joseph's 62.706
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 12
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (-12)

Game 745-746: UL Monroe at Arkansas Little Rock
Dunkel Ratings: UL Monroe 43.446; Arkansas Little Rock 51.827
Dunkel Line: Arkansas Little Rock by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas Little Rock by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL Monroe (+11 1/2)

Game 747-748: Michigan State at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 67.456; Minnesota 70.388
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota

Game 749-750: UNLV at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 63.669; Louisville 77.798
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 14
Vegas Line: Louisville by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-11 1/2)

Game 751-752: Gonzaga at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 73.912; Utah 64.268
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 6
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-6)

Game 753-754: Northern Iowa at Southern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 54.078; Southern Illinois 57.825
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 4
Vegas Line: Southern Illinois by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+6 1/2)

Game 755-756: Notre Dame at DePaul
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 67.611; DePaul 62.473
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 5
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+7 1/2)

Game 757-758: Bradley at Wichita State
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 54.861; Wichita State 63.904
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 9
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-5 1/2)

Game 759-760: North Carolina at Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 83.424; Nevada 62.222
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 21
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-17 1/2)

Game 761-762: Wyoming at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 55.441; Utah State 64.912
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+12 1/2)

Game 763-764: Akron at NC Greensboro
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 60.564; NC Greensboro 49.744
Dunkel Line: Akron by 11
Vegas Line: Akron by 9
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-9)

Game 765-766: Manhattan at LaSalle
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 53.313; LaSalle 59.276
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 6
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+8 1/2)

Game 767-768: Loyola-MD at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 50.637; Duke 77.477
Dunkel Line: Duke by 27
Vegas Line: Duke by 31
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (+31)

NHL DUNKEL

Atlanta at Carolina
The Thrashers come in with a 5-3 record on the road when the total is listed at 6 or more, while the Hurricanes are 0-3 at home with the same total. Atlanta is the underdog pick (+175) according to Dunkel, which has the Thrashers favored straight up by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+175).

Game 1-2: Florida at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 9.998; NY Islanders 10.917
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+120); Under

Game 3-4: San Jose at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 13.302; Minnesota 10.853
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-170); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-170); Over

Game 5-6: Colorado at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.940; Phoenix 11.489
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-130); Over

Game 7-8: Atlanta at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.400; Carolina 10.144
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-210); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+175); Over

Game 9-10: New Jersey at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.749; Dallas 12.939
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-120); Under

Game 11-12: Columbus at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.532; Anaheim 11.380
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-185); 5
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+160); Under

Game 13-14: Edmonton at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 12.336; Calgary 10.905
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+155); Over

NCAAF

Game 235-236: Air Force vs. Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 86.579; Houston 92.940
Dunkel Line: Houston by 6 1/2; 70
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2 1/2); Over

Game 237-238: Pittsburgh vs. Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 97.632; Oregon State 99.181
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3); Under

Game 239-240: Boston College vs. Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 96.773; Vanderbilt 88.671
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 8; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston College by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-3 1/2); Over

Game 241-242: Minnesota vs. Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 80.520; Kansas 96.565
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 16; 66
Vegas Line: Kansas by 10; 58
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-10); Over

Game 243-244: LSU at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 92.547; Georgia Tech 99.626
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 7; 47
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-3 1/2); Under

Nelly’s Green Sheet

ARMED FORCES BOWL 11:00 AM
Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas ESPN
Houston (-2½) Air Force (64)
Air Force beat Houston 31-28 back in September in a game that was moved
to Dallas to avoid the brunt of the hurricane. Air Force was soundly outgained
and did not pass for a single yard but the conditions and hectic
scheduling situation were unfavorable for both teams. Air Force closed the
year with back-to-back losses despite a strong overall 8-4 record and the
Falcons took playing in the Armed Forces Bowl seriously last year with a very
competitive effort against Cal, eventually losing a game they probably
deserved to win. Houston obviously enjoys a location edge in this game
being played in Texas but the Cougars are coached by a bowl rookie with
first year Coach Kevin Sumlin doing a nice job in the transition year to keep
Houston competitive. Houston finished first in the nation in total offense,
averaging 575 yards per game, but stopping the ground attack has been
problematic. Houston has posted big regular season numbers in recent years
but the bowl season has not gone smoothly as the Cougars have been on
the losing end of eight consecutive bowl games including each of the past
three seasons. Air Force has covered in three of the last four bowl
appearances despite a narrow miss last season and this will be a big game
for Coach Calhoun after the collapse in last year’s game in this venue. Air
Force does not have the statistics that Houston has but the Falcons are a
tough team to prepare for and this game likely has more meaning for the
underdog. These teams had opposite ATS records this season as Air Force
continues to find ways to win games despite appearing in match-up
disadvantages. Houston’s defense is hard to trust in this situation while the
Falcons have a reliable attack and a solid stop unit. AIR FORCE 37-34

RATING 3: AIR FORCE (+2½)
RATING 1: ‘OVER 64’

SUN BOWL 1:00 PM
Sun Bowl Stadium – El Paso, Texas CBS
Oregon State (-3) Pittsburgh (52½)
Some might question the motivation for Oregon State having come so close
to a Rose Bowl trip before losing to Oregon to close out the season. That
same logic could apply to Pittsburgh as the Panthers were expected to be
Big East contenders, although this will finally be the first bowl appearance in
the Wannstedt era. Pittsburgh had four wins this season by five points or less
so it was awfully close to being another similar mediocre year for the
Panthers. Oregon State will be motivated coming off a disastrous
performance, allowing 65 points against rival Oregon. The Beavers had been
a great defensive team all season long before that game and although key
players could be out on offense the defense can lead. The Beavers were an
outstanding ATS team this season and still remain the lone team to beat
USC on the year so with ample time to prepare this team should be ready to
play. Pittsburgh has some tremendous talent on this team but this is a
program that continually underachieves and this year happened to catch
breaks to produce a strong record and remain in Big East contention. Oregon
State caught some good fortune this season but also could have easily won
two of the four games that they lost. Oregon State has been a great bowl
performer with four consecutive wins dating back to 2003. Coach Riley has
never lost a bowl game and the Beavers should avoid any possible letdown
as this will still be a big game for the program. OREGON STATE 27-14

RATING 4: OREGON STATE (-3)
RATING 3: ‘UNDER ‘52½’

MUSIC CITY BOWL 2:30 PM
LP Field – Nashville, Tennessee ESPN
Boston College (-4) Vanderbilt (41)
Boston College has been a bowl juggernaut in recent years with eight
consecutive bowl wins. Only one game came under current Coach
Jagodzinski however and each of the last three BC bowl victories came by
very slim margins. Vanderbilt finally makes a historic bowl appearance and
this game comes in a favorable venue playing close to home. Vanderbilt has
not played in the postseason since the 1982 Hall of Fame Bowl and the
Commodores barely got here, going 1-6 after a 5-0 start to the season. The
Vanderbilt offense averaged less than 20 points per game, gaining just 260
yards per game so expecting much production against a BC defense with
some of the best numbers in the nation is unrealistic. The Boston College
offense has not done a lot and finished the season without starting QB Chris
Crane but some of that struggle should be attributed to a number of strong
defenses in the ACC. Four of six wins for Vanderbilt came against bowl
teams but three losses came against losing teams so the Commodores have
walked a thin line between success and failure and turnovers have played a
big role. On the year Vanderbilt was out-gained in nine of twelve games and
gave up 58 more yards per game than they produced. Boston College has
had plenty of time to get the adjusted offense in order and this class does not
want to be the team to end the bowl win streak so there should be ample
motivation despite narrowly missing the BCS for the second straight season
by falling to Virginia Tech. Vanderbilt has been a dangerous team to go
against as they have won several games they have had no business winning
but barring turnovers BC should pull away. BOSTON COLLEGE 27-21

RATING 1: BOSTON COLLEGE (-4)
RATING 2: ‘OVER 41’

INSIGHT BOWL 5:00 PM
Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe, Arizona NFL
Kansas (-10½) Minnesota (57½)
The Gophers delivered a great turnaround season to make a bowl
appearance after just one win last season but a close look reveals little that is
impressive about Minnesota’s season. Minnesota beat just two teams that
are playing in a bowl games and one was a 6-6 Northern Illinois squad to
open the season. Minnesota needed a late score to win by just four in that
match-up at home and the other win ov er a bowl team was also against a 6-6
team, beating Florida Atlantic in a revenge effort that was much closer than
the final score. Minnesota closed the year losing four straight games and
injuries have taken a significant toll on the team. The Gophers have one of
the worst rushing offenses in the nation and Minnesota was an incredibly
fortunate team with one of the top turnover margins in the nation. Kansas
could not capture last season’s magic as the schedule was much tougher but
all five teams that the Jayhawks lost against are playing in the postseason,
combining for a 49-11 record. Kansas drew Texas, Texas Tech, and
Oklahoma from the Big 12 South so the Jayhawks played one of the tougher
schedules in the nation and by far the toughest slate of any team in its
division. Minnesota did not have to play Penn State or Michigan State, two of
the top teams in the Big Ten so the Gophers faced arguably the weakest Big
Ten schedule. Kansas out-gained Minnesota by almost 110 yards per game
and the defensive numbers were pretty similar. In the last two bowl games
Coach Mangino has delivered outstanding performances and his team
should be ready to play while this will be the first bowl game for Coach
Brewster and most of his Minnesota players. Look for Kansas to deliver a
convincing win as Minnesota will not have answers. KANSAS 34-17

RATING 3: KANSAS (-10½)
RATING 1: ‘UNDER 57½’

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL 6:30 PM
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, Georgia ESPN
Georgia Tech (-4) Lsu (50)
This is an intriguing bowl match-up as last year’s BCS champions face an
upstart Georgia Tech program that made great strides under Coach Johnson
in his first year with the Yellow Jackets. LSU has tremendous talent but the
team appeared to give up on the season with a miserable second half of the
year, closing the year with four losses in the final six games and one of the
wins required a miraculous comeback. These teams have nearly opposite
ATS records on the year as Georgia Tech was one of the top spread teams
in football while LSU finished a dismal 2-9 for backers. The Georgia Tech
rush offense has been very difficult to contain, rushing for 282 yards per
game and rolling over several quality defenses this season. On the year LSU
gave up an average of a touchdown more per game despite similar yardage
numbers compared with Georgia Tech. This will be a very favorable venue
for the Yellow Jackets and Coach Johnson had solid bowl success while at
Navy. Coach Miles has delivered convincing bowl wins in each of the last
three years but this is a major step back in the level of stage, not even
making a New Year’s Day game, let alone a BCS game. Georgia Tech
defeated a Georgia team that pounded LSU this season and also crushed
Mississippi State to deliver great results against the SEC this season.
Believe it or not but the ACC rated much higher than the SEC in overall
quality this season and the Yellow Jackets will basically be playing a home
game against a potentially unmotivated and still overvalued team. GT 35-21

RATING 2: GEORGIA TECH (-4)
RATING 3: ‘OVER 50’

THE SPORTS MEMO

ARMED FORCES BOWL
Houston -2.5 vs. Air Force O/U 64
Wednesday, December 31, Noon ESPN - Fort Worth, Texas
Recommendation: Houston

Air Force returns to the Armed Forces Bowl for the second consecutive year. The Falcons’ entered last season’s game on a three-game winning streak and built a 21-0 lead over California before the hibernating Bears woke up and piled up over 500 yards offense to emerge with a 42-36 win. In facing Houston, Air Force is again matched with a significantly superior offensive opponent. The Falcons previously faced Houston this season in an early September game down in Dallas when Hurricane Ike forced the game out of Houston. With the distractions, Air Force emerged with a 31-28 victory in rainy and windy conditions. The Falcons ran for 380 yards but did not complete a single pass in seven attempts. Houston piled up over 530 yards in the defeat as quarterback Case Keenum threw for over 360 yards and four touchdowns in the difficult conditions. The expectation in this contest is that Houston’s top rated offense will prove too powerful for Air Force as the Cougars get redemption for the early season loss. Overachieving Air Force enters off two lopsided losses to superior Mountain West Conference teams and will face a Houston team that has significant advantages on offense. The Falcons have a freshman quarterback operating the offense as Tim Jefferson took over in early October.He has attempted 10 or more passes in only one of his eight starts. He does however, possess good mobility and is another of many running threats for the Falcons. This game provides an interesting dynamic with the contrast in styles. The Air Force spread option with a zone-running scheme has averaged over 268 rushing ypg. Meanwhile, Houston prefers to travel through the air, piling up 414 passing ypg. The Cougars led the nation in total offense with 575 ypg and Keenum led the nation with 4,768 passing yards while throwing for 43 touchdowns behind a 67% completion rate. The Cougars scored at least 40 ppg in seven of their final eight contests and Air Force proved vulnerable against the MWC’s top offenses of Utah, BYU and TCU. As you might expect with a quick strike offense, Houston ranks among the nation’s worst in time-of-possession.
Air Force will attempt to chew up the clock with its ground game and keep the Cougars’ offense off the field. The Cougars’ defense is vulnerable and did allow 169 rushing ypg. If Air Force can control the clock and run with success, then they will no doubt have a shot to beat Houston for a second time. But the belief here is that Air Force benefited greatly throughout the season with some timely turnovers and scheduling spots. They finished +12 in turnover margin but against the three other teams they faced with a winning record, the Falcons were just +1 in turnover margin and they lost all three. So while the Falcons hold the rushing advantage, Houston is the much better overall team and with an explosive offense that can extend the field, they’ll exact revenge.

SUN BOWL
Pittsburgh +3 vs. Oregon State O/U 53
Wednesday, December 31 2 pm ET CBS - El Paso, Texas
Recommendation: Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh finished the season 9-3 and for the first time during the four-year tenure of Dave Waanstadt, the Panthers had a winning record. In the minds of many however, the season was still a disappointment.
Opening the season with an inexplicable loss to Bowling Green was the continuation of the established pattern of losing to inferior teams. This has been the knock against the Panthers and more specifically head coach Dave Wannstedt. The numbers over the past two seasons illustrate Pittsburgh’s inconsistency as the Panthers are 3-7 ATS as a favorite and have suffered three losses in straight up fashion as a favorite of more than a touchdown. However on the flip side, the Panthers are an impressive 10-3 as an underdog and have shown the ability to compete with anyone. Motivation can be a key factor in predicting winners in these second tier Bowl Games. With that in mind, Oregon State is probably disappointed to be in El Paso for the Sun Bowl. With their early season victory over USC, the Beavers were in position to face Penn State in the Rose Bowl but fell short in a season ending loss to their in-state rival, Oregon. While players will be expected to put that disappointment behind them, consider this quote from head coach Mike Riley; “There will be some residual effect, but this is no time for babies. We can’t whine about that. We’re going to have to get ready to go.” Even with a month to shake the disappointment we expect the loss of a Rose Bowl opportunity to leave this OSU team less than enthused. While motivation is important, fundamentally the blueprint for success against Oregon State has been in running the football as they have allowed nearly five yards per carry on the ground. When Oregon State was outgained on the ground, they are 0-4 straight up and against the spread. This season they were out rushed by Utah, Stanford, Penn State and Oregon to the tune of more than 100 yards per game. On the other side of the equation when the Beavers out rushed the opposition they were 8-0. In those eight victories, they averaged more than 200 ypg while allowing just 81. So our fundamental question for this game centers around the rush offense and defense of both teams. And in our projections, in each case Pittsburgh holds the edge. Pitt running back LeSean McCoy netted over 1,700 yards from scrimmage while averaging nearly five yards per carry saving his best performances for the Panthers’ toughest opponents. Additionally in 624 touches the last two seasons he has not had a single fumble. On the other side of the equation, Super Freshman Jacquizz Rodgers is battling a significant shoulder injury that kept him out of the Beavers’ game against Oregon. Injuries are always a concern and their second leading gainer James Rodgers is out for this game. Additionally all of the little advantages of being the more disciplined team should also contribute to our edge with Pittsburgh. On the season, Pitt has been called for only 55 penalties compared to the 80 called on the Beavers. Defensively Pitt is better against both the pass and the run and with so much else in our favor, we’ll take the points with the better defensive team.

MUSIC CITY BOWL
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt +4 O/U 41
Wednesday, December 31, 3:30 PM ET ESPN - Nashville, Tenn.
Recommendation: Vanderbilt

You would have thought Boston College was No. 1 in the country with a 34-0 lead heading in the fourth quarter of the ACC title game only to blow it by what we read in the newspapers after the loss to Virginia Tech. The disappointment of missing a BCS game was immense for a team that started the season with the expectations of being middle-of-the-road ACC club. Sitting a 2-3 in conference play after a home loss to Clemson, the Eagles shutout Notre Dame 17-0. Then in multiple must-win situations closed out the regular season with three straight. Included were back-to-back road wins over Florida State and Wake Forest. Few teams expended more energy over the last month of the season to get into their conference championship game. Getting to the game was an accomplishment but Boston College got beat decidedly in the most important game of the season and must now rebound. A lot of what occurred was similar to that of last season when they closed the season with huge wins and then lost to Virginia Tech in the league championship. In their disappointment last season the Eagles managed to rebound with a win over Michigan State in the Champs Sports Bowl – although they failed to cover the five-point spread. The problems we see in this matchup however transcend the motivational factors. With a newbie quarterback and an average running game, this team is almost as inept as Vanderbilt on offense. Boston College quarterback Dominuque Davis has delivered mixed results in replacement of the injured Chris Crane. Not that Crane was a game-changer but he had developed enough continuity to be effective.
Davis completed less that 48% of his passes on 102 attempts and while there is nearly a month to prepare, the Eagles are unlikely to put the game in his hands. As for Vanderbilt, they also entered the campaign with little expectation. We actually predicted that they would go winless in SEC play. They pulled off a couple of stunners early on and found themselves 5-0 overall and 3-0 in conference before mid-October. Their inability to move the football eventually caught up with this team and proved too much to overcome. The Commodores’ strength lies in a 29th rated defense that posted 18 interceptions and 30 sacks. Those numbers are not too different from what we get with Boston College and despite ranking in the top ten nationally in total defense, the ACC found ways to score points on the Eagles. In nine league games, BC allowed 26 points per game despite the fact that only one team in the ACC ranked in the top 50 in total offense and that all but three ranked 81st or worse. From a motivational standpoint, all aspects favor the Commodores. Snapping a 26-year postseason drought and playing a bowl game in their hometown this team motivated and excited to perform. The same is not likely for Boston College. Motivation aside this is not going to be a fluid game and we expect a lot of three-and-outs on offense. In catching more than a field goal, we’ll lean with the “home” team Commodores.

INSIGHT BOWL
Minnesota +10.5 vs. Kansas O/U 58
Wednesday, December 31 5:30 pm ET NFL Network - Tempe, Ariz.
Recommendation: Minnesota

The Minnesota program showed tremendous growth in the second season under head coach Tim Brewster. Starting from scratch the Golden Gophers improved from 1-11 to a respectable 7-5. They have recruited well and are poised to make an even bigger jump in the years to come. In the here-and-now however, they still should be played with caution. While the end results were impressive, it must be noted that Minnesota took advantage of a weak schedule and avoided Michigan State and Penn State in conference play. Overall their non-conference slate featured wins over Montana State, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green and Florida Atlantic. All of those team finished 6-6 with the exception of 7-5 Montana State. Overall, Minnesota didn’t beat a FBS team that was above .500. The Gophers do have talent on the offensive and defensive sides of the football. Their defense forced a Big Ten-best 30 turnovers which presented the offense a short field on multiple occasions. The offense relied heavily on two playmakers, wide receiver Eric Decker and quarterback Adam Weber. Decker, who finished the regular season with 925 receiving yards and six touchdowns, was hurt (ankle) late in the season but is expected to be fully recovered. We’ll also note that Brewster wasted little time in tweaking his coaching staff after the regular season as he brought in assistant Tim Davis to replace Phil Meyer as the offensive line coach/running game coordinator.Davis has worked at both the college and NFL levels, including as an assistant offensive line coach with the Miami Dolphins under Nick Saban. While his presence is an upgrade, it is not likely to have an immediate impact on a truly anemic rushing attack. Minnesota ranked last in the Big Ten and 104th in the nation in rushing averaging just 3.2 yards per rush. Freshman DeLeon Eskridge, the team’s leading rusher, averaged more than four yards per carry in only one of Minnesota’s last five games. On the other side of the equation, Kansas comes in battle tested after the Big XII schedule cycle put Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma onto the slate. As is the case with most of the Big XII, the Kansas’ offense had little trouble scoring as they averaged 32.7 ppg. That type of firepower puts Minnesota in a situation of having to play its best offensive opponent of the season. In analyzing Minnesota, we find similarities to a team like Vanderbilt. The early season success was reliant upon creating turnovers on a routine basis. Late in the season when those types of plays were void, the Gophers struggled. The defense was no longer assisted by easy scores from the offense and Minnesota was outscored by an average of over 20 ppg its last four contests.Kansas too had its fair share of defensive woes but when we account for the difference in conference play, the Jayhawks numbers were no better or no worse than that of Minnesota. Still while Kansas has posted some high-powered offensive numbers, it should be pointed out that the Jayhawks didn’t win a road game by more than three all season long. Additionally Big XII favorites of more than three are just 13-26 ATS in bowl games against other BCS conference teams. Take the Golden Gophers as they again prove to be better that the sum of their stats.

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
LSU vs. Georgia Tech -4 O/U 50.5
Wednesday, December 31, 7:30 pm ET ESPN - Atlanta
Recommendation: Georgia Tech

Critics said that Paul Johnson’s triple option attack would not work in a major conference. Even the most optimistic projections didn’t call for the type of season that was delivered. After all Georgia Tech was not supposed to compete for an ACC Championship and they certainly weren’t supposed to snap a five game losing streak to in-state rival Georgia. Yet that all happened and the naysayers have been left with egg on their face. The Yellow Jackets have been rewarded with a de facto home game in the former Peach Bowl after posting an impressive nine-win campaign. Despite not yet having the personnel recruited to run the option, the Jackets posted the nation’s third best ground attack and averaged over 288 yards per game. Their 6.38 yards per carry average puts them in the top five nationally according to our true rushing Accu-stats. While there were hiccups along the way, Tech really started to find a rhythm toward the end of the season. They exploded for 86 points in the final two games against Georgia and Miami (FL) and just two weeks prior had posted 31 points on Florida State. Jonathan Dwyer and Josh Nesbit have been a formidable duo and Roddy Jones who gained over 9.3 yards per touch, has been a solid change-of-pace spark for the offense. The defense also outperformed expectations showing well against both the pass and the run despite losing seven key contributors and Defensive Coordinator Jon Tenuta in the off season. Although the numbers dropped off at the tail end of the campaign due in part to injuries, the Jackets ranked 20th nationally with 32 quarterback sacks. Meanwhile the Bayou Bengals didn’t find the same success in trying to replace coordinators and key contributors this season.The Tigers’ offense has really struggled to find any rhythm as the quarterback play has been atrocious. None of the three quarterbacks completed more than 55% of their passes and the overall play was so poor that Les Miles opted to start freshman Jordon Jefferson in the season finale against Arkansas. Still while the struggles on offense garnered headlines, the real story has been the decline of the defense. Under coordinator Bo Pelini the Tigers had built championship caliber teams. This year’s in his absence the team has been unrecognizable to the faithful. Not only did they finish with the ninth overall rated defense in the SEC but they ranked dead last in conference play allowing 32 points per game. When you consider the fact that LSU faced South Carolina, Auburn and Mississippi State (three of the worst offenses in the conference) those numbers become extremely damning. Georgia Tech showed it its defeat of Georgia that it’s offense can work against the speed of the SEC. Playing at home in front of the Atlanta faithful gives Georgia Tech an advantage and with plenty of motivation, we’ll back the better of the two teams.

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

4* (9-5) LSU

ARMED FORCES BOWL
Amon G. Carter Stadium • Fort Worth, TX
Air Force over Houston by 1
Hey, in ‘Case’ you didn’t know, Houston QB Keenum is College Football’s total
offense leader in 2008 and we wanted to use the Cougars in the worst way
for this New Year’s Eve party. However, UH must head into battle against a
Military team returning to the same Bowl (Armed Forces, no less) that they
lost last year… not a scenario we’re likely to support. Take a gander at some
of these numbers and you’ll see why we’re upset. C-USA Bowlers are 8-1 ATS
against foes off a SUATS loss, the 7-5 Coogs went 10-1 ITS this year and the
Flyboys were outstatted in 4 of their fi nal 5 games. These two teams locked
horns back on September 13th when Hurricane Ike forced Houston to move
the game to Dallas and Air Force built a 24-point lead before escaping with
a hard-fought 31-28 victory. Both squads have shuffl ed personnel since that
earlier meeting but we’ll still see an Air Force outfi t dead set on running
the ball (268.9 YPG) against a pass-happy bunch of Cougars averaging
414.1YPG through the airways. With Houston going 0-3 SU and ATS in its
last 3 Bowl games (UH hasn’t won a Bowl since 1980!) and Military teams
owning a 10-2 ATS record when outrushing their opponent in postseason
play, we’ll reluctantly take the Flyboys to overcome the Cougar-friendly
Fort Worth venue and claim their second win over Houston’s 1st year coach
Kevin Sumlin. Off we go into the wild, blue yonder…

SUN BOWL
Sun Bowl Stadium • El Paso, TX
Oregon St over Pittsburgh by 3
Talk about a DOWNER. After Oregon State shocked mighty USC on
September 25th, Mike Riley’s Beavers chewed up 6 consecutive PAC 10 foes
to place them right on the cusp of their fi rst Rose Bowl appearance since
1965. But even with the home fi eld advantage against rival Oregon in their
traditional season-ending ‘Civil War’, the Rodents choked like a bunch of
Linda Lovelace wannabes, getting trounced by a horrifying 65-38 fi nal
score. The loss drop-kicked OSU all the way from Pasadena to El Paso and
as a result, the most important factor to consider in this matchup is just
how much damage was done to the Beavers’ psyche – and whether they
can actually get motivated enough to put up a fi ght against Pittsburgh.
Despite our near-weekly criticism of head coach Dave Wannstedt, the
Steel City Panthers fi nished a solid 9-3 SU, the team’s best regular season
showing in over a decade. Pitt accomplished their comeback with solid
wins over Big East foes South Florida, West Virginia and Connecticut en
route to a 2nd place fi nish in the conference. Strictly from a pointspread
standpoint, the Beavers look to be an easy pick. They’re 4-0 SU and 3-1
ATS in their last 4 Bowls and PAC 10 Bowlers have posted a jaw-dropping
13-0 ATS mark vs an opponent off back-to-back SUATS wins this decade.
By comparison, Pittsburgh is just 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 Bowl games
and Wanny has struggled to a 2-6 ATS mark when his team is playing with
rest. The outcome should hinge on how both defenses can handle radically
different offensive attacks. Oregon State mounts an aerial assault from a
spread formation while Pitt relies on a smashmouth, pro-style ball-control
offense built around RB LeSean McCoy, who rushed for 1,403 yards and led
the nation in scoring. The Beavers fi elded a strong run defense until Oregon
plowed through them for a whopping 385 rushing yards and Pitt has proven
susceptible to the pass, as demonstrated by Rutgers’ 361 passing yards and 6
TDs in a 54-34 loss to the Scarlet Knights. The bottom line is OSU may show
up as a disinterested favorite and we’re not about to risk our coin on such
an iffy proposition. We’ll call it a ‘sharp number’ and let this one go.

MUSIC CITY BOWL
LP Field • Nashville, TN
Boston College over Vanderbilt by 1
No, they’re not playing this game at Vanderbilt Stadium but the Nashville
venue should prove to be a huge advantage for the 6-6 Commodores,
especially with the team making its fi rst Bowl appearance in 26 years.
Postseason play is nothing new for the Eagles from Chestnut Hill: they’ve
played in 10 consecutive Bowls and have gone 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in the
last 8 outings. BC also owns a spectacular 38-2 SU mark when squaring off
against non conference opposition, including a solid 16-3-1 ATS record when
playing a .500 or greater foe. On the fl ip side, Bobby Johnson’s Commodores
have gone a measly 1-6 ITS versus fellow Bowlers this year (4-9 ITS overall)
and they’ve allowed 58 YPG more than they gained in the regular season.
However, much like the Oregon State team just discussed, the Eagles could
arrive as just another not-ready-to-play favorite. They folded in the ACC
title game against Virginia Tech for the second straight year and saw a
BCS Orange Bowl bid replaced by this second-rate snoozer against an SEC
also-ran. In the same situation last season, the lifeless Eagles struggled to
subdue an inferior Michigan State team in the Champs Sports Bowl and
failed to cover the 5-point spread despite forcing 5 Spartan turnovers. ACC
Bowl favorites have historically failed versus the SEC, covering just 5 of
20 opportunities and with SEC Bowl dogs a 67% play-on proposition this
decade, we’ll look to fade Boston College in a very close game.

INSIGHT BOWL
Sun Devil Stadium • Tempe, AZ
Kansas over Minnesota by 4
Wow. Quite a fall for the Jayhawks from the BCS Orange Bowl last year to
the Insight Bowl this year. With 15 starters back including talented QB Todd
Reesing, Kansas expected to continue the high level of play that resulted in
a gaudy 12-1 SU and 11-1 ATS campaign and a Bowl win over Virginia Tech.
Instead, Mark Mangino’s Jayhawks stumbled to a 7-5 SU regular season full
of question marks and fi nger-pointing. But the trip downward for KU was
nothing compared to the totally unexpected rise of the Golden Gophers.
After winning just a single game in 2007 and getting whitewashed in Big 10
play, Minny coach Mark Brewster somehow discovered the ‘ON’ switch and
his Rodents rebounded with a 7-5 record, becoming bowl eligible despite
losing their fi nal 4 games in a row! So, in what is starting to look like a
recurring theme, we could be witnessing a classic case of one team thrilled
to be here against another that could care less. A few sessions with our
database also tells us that Minnesota owns all the ATS edges. Big 10 Bowls
dogs are a strong 10-3 ATS versus the Big 12 and Bowl dogs off at least
3 straight losses are a profi table 12-5 versus the number. No such luck for
the Jayhawks. Big 12 Bowlers are 3-10 ATS as chalk against Big 10 foes and
Kansas managed a sorry 1-6 ITS mark this season versus fellow Bowlers. A 2-6
ATS mark for the last 8 Insight Bowl favorites seals the deal. Hey, only one
other team lost their last 4 games of season and went on to play in a bowl
game – ironically it was 1982 Golden Gophers. Minnesota beat Arkansas that
year, 29-14, as 8.5-point underdogs. Could this be déjà vu all over again?

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
Georgia Dome • Atlanta, GA
Lsu over Georgia Tech by 10
4* BEST BET
Defending National Champion LSU took a big hit this year in terms
of its supposed invincibility, losing more than 2 games for the fi rst
time in coach Les Miles’ 4-year stint at Baton Rouge. Even worse, the
Bayou Bengals saw 3 of their 5 season defeats come at Death Valley
against SEC opponents. But don’t despair, Tiger lovers – Miles is a
sensational 17-0 SU and 11-4 ATS versus non league opponents and
defending National Champs are 6-0 SU and ATS as Bowlers when
taking on a foe off back-to-back SUATS wins. Paul Johnson’s arrival
at Georgia Tech from Navy was viewed as a huge question mark
since many felt his triple-option offensive attack just wouldn’t cut
it against speedier, more athletic competition. Wrong. Even if the
Yellow Jackets lose this game, they’ll fi nish with their best record
since 2000 – also the last year they managed to knock off bitter rival
Georgia (GT silenced the Dawgs between the hedges this year, 45-
42). However, despite Tech’s giddy success, we feel LSU fought much
tougher opponents each week in its conference than the Ramblin’
Wreck faced in their league. And with ACC favorites covering just
5 of their last 20 chances against the SEC, including 2-12 ATS off
a win of 3 or more points, we feel the wrong team is favored in
today’s slugfest. Sure, Tech will be making its 12th consecutive Bowl
appearance but LSU will use this game as a springboard to return to
the brand of football that earned the Tigers a 34-6 SU record in their
3 prior seasons. And even with the Jackets’ campus sitting a mere
two miles away from the Georgia Dome, we expect LSU to bring
enough fans to equal or exceed the noise level generated by Tech’s
supporters. We won’t deny that we’re big fans of GT coach Johnson
but 1st year coaches with a new team have posted a laid-out-on-theslab
0-5 ATS mark off a SUATS win in Bowl games versus a foe off a
SU favorite loss. This one goes to the Mad Hatter

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP

ARMED FORCES BOWL

These tms met earlier TY in a gm that was moved to Dallas (SMU’s HF) due to Hurricane Ike. The gm
was played at 10 am in windy/rainy conditions in front of about 2,000 fans. AF was up 17-7 at half then
31-7 late 3Q before UH staged a furious comeback. They got within 31-28, but AF rec’d the onside K &
ran out the clock. AF was outgained 534-380, and did not comp a pass, but forced 2 TO’s while playing
mistake free. AF HC Troy Calhoun has taken the Falcons to a bowl gm in both of his yrs here (0-1 SU &
ATS). Calhoun’s 17 wins in 2 seasons are the 2nd most ever for a service acad HC in his 1st 2 yrs. In LY’s
Armed Forces Bowl vs Cal, AF (+4) built a 21-0 lead, but late 3Q QB Carney tore his ACL & MCL. His inj
deflated the entire squad and Cal went on to win 42-36. UH is making its 4th str bowl appearance and 5th
in the L6Y (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS), but this is the 1st bowl as a HC for Kevin Sumlin. LY UH played in the Texas
Bowl and lost to TCU 20-13 (+6). AF went 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) away from home TY outscoring opps by an
avg of 27-15 and their only road loss was to TCU. UH is 2-5 SU (1-6 ATS) away from home being outscored
45-34 despite outgaining opp 529-455. AF is 6-3 SU (4-3 ATS) vs non-conf foes under Calhoun. AF had
a large crowd edge LY with many military fans and should have the same turnout here. TY AF played 6
bowl elig tms and was outscored 32-26 and outgained 426-337. UH played 6 bowl tms TY going 2-4 SU/
ATS, outscoring them 41-38 and outgaining them 565-478, but these margins were helped greatly by a
70-30 win over Tulsa (641-501 yd edge). AF has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 10 Sr’s. The Cougars
have 12 upperclassmen starters, incl 9 Sr’s. Both tms played Colo St with AF winning SU/ATS (38-17, -9’)
outgaining them 455-354, while UH lost SU/ATS (28-25, -6’) despite outgaining them 473-422.
AF’s #78 off is led by true Fr QB Tim Jefferson. Calhoun wanted to infuse more spd and Jefferson
started the L/7 gms, leading the team to a 5-2 SU record. He was named the MWC Frosh of the Yr and
is the 1st frosh in AF history to win that honor. AF has really gone with a youth movement TY as five of
the top 7 rushers are frosh or sophs but the leading rusher is Sr Newell. True Fr Clark is #2. When AF
chooses to pass (14.5%), the top rec is Jr Josh Cousins. The OL avg 6’4” 273 with 2 Sr’s and they have
started all 12 gms TY. They have given up just THREE sks (2.5%) while paving the way for 269 ypg rush
(#5 NCAA). LB Lamendola (#2 tklr MWC) leads our #62 D which is all’g just 139.8 ypg rush (3.6) with
33 sks (9.6%). The defense has held 5 opp’s under 300 ttl yds TY and has scored 3 defensive TD’s.
They have also recorded multiple TO’s in 10 of 12 gms TY and AF is +12 in TO margin. DL Paulson is
#2 in the MWC in sks. The pass D ranks #60 all’g just 196 ypg (58%) with a 14-11 ratio, led by the tm’s
#2 tklr, Chris Thomas. The ST’s rank #83 behind the leg of PK Harrison. The return gm is dominated
by underclassmen led by soph Reggie Rembert who leads in both PR and KR avg. The Falcons allow
19.3 on KR’s and 8.9 on PR’s.
The Cougars controlled their own destiny heading into the final wk of the ssn, needing a win to capture
the CUSA West title. They lost at Rice (56-42, -3) and instead of a possible Liberty Bowl berth, they
end up here. UH’s dynamic #11 off is avg 575 ypg (#2 NCAA) and 41 ppg. They are led by QB Keenum
(CUSA Off POY) who is #1 in the NCAA in ttl off avg 416 ypg. Keenum spreads the ball around as 9
players have caught TD passes TY. TE Hafner leads NCAA in rec and TD’s by a TE. You can’t overlook
the run game as UH is avg 161 ypg (5.2) on the ground. True Fr RB Beall (CUSA Frosh of the Yr) set
UH frosh records for rush yds and rush TD’s. Houston has our #93 D all’g 31 ppg and 419 ypg. They are
all’g 170 ypg (4.2) on the ground and are led by DE Phillip Hunt (CUSA Def POY) who has 12 sks (T-#4
NCAA), but the rest of the tm has only accounted for 10 sks. UH has our #87 pass eff D all’g 249 ypg
(61%) with a 27-13 ratio. The Cougars have our #60 ST’s and have blk’d 5 kicks (3 FG, 2 P), but they
have only made 10-16 FG’s (10-14 inside 40). Carrier is avg 22.5 on KR, including a 93 yd KR TD.
While we’re well aware it is historically not profitable to play against a military academy in a bowl,
Houston finds itself in a great situation. QB Keenum has exploded for almost 5,000 yds of total offense
and now faces an AF squad that they outgained 534-380 earlier this year. The D should also improve after
having seen the same option attack twice this year. The Houston scoring machine has topped 40+ in 7 of
the L/8 gms while AF’s offense has struggled down the stretch topping 24 just once in the L/5.
FORECAST: HOUSTON BY 10
RATING: 3* HOUSTON

SUN BOWL

This is the 75th edition of the Sun Bowl. These 2 have met just 1 time, a 38-13 Pitt victory in the ‘02
Insight Bowl. Pitt returns to a bowl for the 1st time since their 35-7 Fiesta Bowl defeat at the hands of
Utah in ‘04 (Panthers had 5 consec bowl appearances under former HC Harris). HC Wannstedt has been
under heavy criticism after recording a 16-19 record in his 1st 3 yrs but a turning point came LY with
their huge win over #2 WV which gave them momentum for ‘08. The Beavers are undefeated (4-0 SU
& 3-1 ATS) in bowl play under HC Riley who was honored as the P10 COY this ssn. Pitt has played in
the Sun Bowl twice winning in ‘75 & in ‘89. This is OSU’s 2nd trip here in the L3Y as they had a late 2pt
conv against Mizzou to pull out the win in ‘06. The Panthers went on to win 9 gms for the 1st time S/‘82
defeating rival WV again while the Beavers tallied a 8-4 mark incl a 2nd str home upset of USC. Pitt has
played 10 bowl caliber tms (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) outgaining them by a 355-329 mark while OSU went 4-3
SU (5-2 ATS) against bowl schools outgaining them by a 396-363 clip. Pitt has 8 Sr starters among 16
upperclassmen while the Beavers have 13 Sr’s & 17 upperclassmen. The Panthers are 5-3 SU & 6-2
ATS the L3Y on turf while OSU plays their HG’s on the fake stuff (6-2 SU/ATS TY). Pitt is 5-1 SU & 4-2
ATS on the road TY while the Beavers struggled some going 3-3 SU (4-2 ATS) away from Corvallis.
Pitt has our #35 offense avg 29 ppg & 356 ypg. DW was back on the hot seat after an opening loss
to BG as they were inconsistent early on. They defeated #10 USF, dominated Navy & won 4 of the L/5
for a share of #2 in the BE. Pitt delivered 5 come-from-behind wins in the 4Q. The Panthers scored on
41 of 45 drives in the RZ (9th NCAA). DW went with Bill Stull at QB, who was inj’d the 1st gm LY. The
offense is built around RB McCoy who carried the tm avg 117 ypg (4.9) & is tied for 2nd in the NCAA
with 21 TD. WR Kinder ret’d from an ‘07 knee inj to lead the tm in rec while Fr WR Baldwin (6’5”) has
emerged as a big play threat. TE’s Byham & Dickerson give Stull a balance of strength & speed. The
OL has 104 career sts & avg 6’4” 299 with 2 Sr’s incl CJ Davis who moved from LG to C after Houser
went down with inj. They’ve all’d 27 sks & paved the way for 143 ypg (3.8). Pitt has our #28 def ranking
all’g 23 ppg & 321 ypg. The Pitt DL avg 6’3” 274 all’g 128 ypg (3.6) led by bookends Romeus & Sheard
who comb for 11.5 sks. The LB’s are led by BE Def POY & AA Scott McKillop who is #2 in the NCAA in
solo tkls (78). OLB Ransom moved from WR prior to the opener due to inj & emerged as the #2 tklr. Pitt
has our #57 pass eff D all’g 193 ypg (55%) & a 19-14 ratio. The ST’s has our #43 ranking led by K Lee
who is Pitt’s career FG leader & has never missed a PAT in his career (113).
With inj’s the L2Y to QB Canfield, Lyle Moevao became the clear-cut starter to begin the ssn at signal
caller for the Beavers. After suffering a shldr inj that caused him to miss 2 gms, Moevao returned for the
“Civil War” vs the Ducks & while he threw a career-high 5 TD passes, he also had 2 costly int’s ret’d for TD
ending any chance for the program’s 1st Rose Bowl appearance S/’65. Many thought that OSU’s run game
would be down in ‘08 with the loss of RB Bernard but True Fr Jacquizz Rodgers silenced many critics as
he finished 2nd in the P10 in rushing yds on the ssn, earning P10 OPOY & FOY despite missing the “Civil
War” w/inj (should ret here). WR Stroughter ret’d TY & comb with Morales & James Rodgers (older bro of
Quizz, out for the bowl w/inj) to become one of the most dangerous units in the conf. The OL avg 6’3” 299
& paved the way for 165 ypg rush (4.3) led by OT Levitre. OSU all’d 16 sks TY (4.0%) & has our #20 off.
The DL avg 6’2” 286 with 3 Sr starters. OSU uses a heavy rotation on the line keeping players fresh and
they recorded 23 of the tm’s 34 sks (68%) on the ssn led by DE’s Norris & Butler. The LB unit consists of
3 playmakers leading our #32 overall def. OSU is #17 in pass eff D all’g 189 ypg (53%) with a 15-12 ratio
led by 4 solid Sr’s. OSU’s ST unit finished in decent shape at #40 thanks to big ssns in the ret gm.
Pitt’s goal the last few weeks was to beat W Virginia and Conn and make it to the Sun Bowl. They
also covered 4 of their L/5 gms with the only ATS loss by 1 pt at Cincy. OSU played with pressure
throughout Nov trying to reach the Rose Bowl, but fell short of that goal and now it is up to HC Riley
to re-motivate his troops. We believe he can do just that after having his team finish the year on an 8-2
ATS run while having played 3 BCS bowl teams. Oregon St’s DE’s can cause havoc on Pitt’s QB’s and
should take them out of their gameplan.
FORECAST: OREGON ST BY 11
RATING: 2* OREGON ST

MUSIC CITY BOWL

This is just the 3rd meeting between these 2 (BC 2-0) but the last game was in ‘63. BC is 13-18-1
all-time vs SEC tms. This is BC’s 10th consec bowl and a win here will extend the nation’s longest
active bowl game winning streak to 9 (6-2 ATS). BC played here in ‘01 and upset #16 Georgia 20-16
(+4). Jagodzinski is 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS in bowls. This is Vandy’s first bowl trip S/’82 and VU HC Johnson
has never played or coached in a bowl gm but did lead his Furman team to the IAA Nat’l Champ gm
in ‘01. These 2 both faced WF TY and BC defeated WF 24-21 (+2) but Vandy lost 23-10 (+4) in their
reg ssn finale. The Eagles have faced 9 bowl caliber tms (VT 2x) going 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS outgaining
them 308-279. Vandy has faced 7 bowl tms with a 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS record but was outscored by an
avg of 24-22 and outgained by an avg of 361-271. Vandy will definitely have the fan edge as this is
being played in their backyard and BC fans are known as poor travelers. BC has 7 Sr starters among
14 upperclassmen starters while VU only has 4 Sr starters among 16 upperclassmen. The Eagles
are 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS away from Chestnut Hill as a fav and VU is 6-2 ATS as a dog TY (4-1 on road
w/3 outright upsets). Vandy has the schedule edge (#21-70).
BC, who was picked to finish 4th in the ACC Atlantic Div in the pressn, finished the reg ssn with a 9-3
record and advanced to their 2nd consec ACC Champ gm but once again were dealt a second-tier bowl.
They have lost 2 str yrs in the ACC Title game to VT and has lost the game that would have created a
BCS spot in 3 of the L/5Y. RFr QB Davis, subbing for the inj’d Crane (broken collarbone), is only starting
his 3rd game. In the ACC Champ game he threw for 263 yds (39.5%) throwing 2 int and was sk’d 5x. RB
Harris broke the BC frosh rushing record. The O-line avg 6’6” 307 and is anchored by 1st Tm ACC OG Clif
Ramsey and 2nd Tm ACC OT Anthony Castonzo. The Eagles are avg 3.9 ypc rush and have all’d 21 sks
(5.1%). They have our #68 offense and #20 defense. BC DL avg 6’3” 293 and is led by 1st Tm ACC DT
BJ Raji & 2nd Tm ACC Ron Brace. The rush D is only all’g 2.9 ypc (#7 NCAA) and 20 of the 34 sks are
by the DL. LB Mark Herzlich, who was named the ACC Def POY, is tied for #14 in the NCAA along with
S Paul Anderson with 6 int each. The Eagles lead the NCAA with 26 int and have ranked in the Top 25 in
int 7x’s S/’00. The secondary allowed 181 ypg pass (56%) but just 9 TD. BC’s D or sp tms have scored 9
times this season (5 IR TD, 1 FR TD, 1 PR TD, 1 blk P TD and 1 safety). The Eagles have our #100 ranked
sp tms. BC hasn’t tried a FG longer than 39 yds and that was NG in their 1st meeting vs VT.
This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Commodores as just 9 starters ret’d from ‘07,
but VU surprisingly started out 5-0 for the 1st time S/’43 upsetting 4 tms to climb to #13 in the AP poll.
In that 5-0 start, VU defeated a ranked tm at home for the 1st time S/‘92 (SC) but VU was outgained
325-225 in that 24-17 win, grabbed 4 int (incl 1 ret’d for TD) to beat Ole Miss 23-17 (outgained 385-
202), and defeated then #13 Aub for their 2nd win over a ranked opp TY (1st time S/’55). VU led the
nation in TO margin in the 1st 5 gms (+9), but finished +6. VU’s #104 off struggled with inconsistent
QB play with Nickson starting the 1st 6 until he was benched in their 1st loss of the yr to Miss St.
Adams started the next 3 (0-3 SU) until he was inj’d vs UF. Nickson st’d the L/3 incl their bowl clinching
win over UK, but Adams saw playing time in the L/2. Starting RB Jennings was banged up all yr
which opened the door for Jr RB Hawkins. WR Smith missed the 1st 4 gms TY with inj after starting
LY while VU lost 3 WR’s for the yr due to inj. The OL was rebuilt after losing all 5 starters from ‘07
and all’d 26 sks (8.7%) with the starters avg 6’6” 297. The DL avg 6’5” 269 and neither line has a Sr
starter. Vandy is known for producing solid LB’s and 2nd Tm SEC Benoist led the tm in tkls. Vandy has
a super secondary (#12 in pass D) led by 1st Tm SEC CB DJ Moore who was #2 in the SEC with 6
int and also contributed on off (216 ttl yds), and sp tms (top KR & PR). The Commodores’ D is #26 in
our rankings. Vandy suffered 5 blk’d punts TY causing their otherwise solid sp tms unit to rank #107.
BC has been an opportunistic team with 9 defensive and ST’s scores. Those opportunities will
be tougher to achieve against a tm that had time to prepare. Vandy’s offense has struggled with both
QB’s under 50% this year and throwing for a combined 13-11 ratio. The key will be BC’s defensive
front 7 and if they play to their potential, they have the ability to control this game.
FORECAST: BC/VANDERBILT UNDER 42
RATING: 2* UNDER

INSIGHT BOWL

Just the 7th meeting (3-3) with the last coming in ‘73. The most recent link between the schools
came in ‘97 when then-HC Mason left KU for Minnesota. Ironically, Mason’s last game came in the
Gophers’ only previous visit to Tempe (blew 31 pt lead & lost 44-41 to TT in ‘06, +7). Mason was axed
immediately after, opening the door for bowl virgin Tim Brewster who is familiar with Mangino from their
RRR days (Brewster on UT’s staff; Mangino w/OU’s). Mangino is 2-1 SU/ATS in bowls & is the only HC
to guide KU to 4. UM is 3-0 ATS as a dog in bowls (4-1 as a dog TY) while KU has covered its only
bowl as a fav (‘05). Vs bowl tms UM went 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) despite being outgained 383-337. KU was
2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS also being outgained (478-420). UM played its final gm in the HHH Metrodome but
has gone 3-1 ATS on grass (KU 3-1 also). The Gophers are a young team with just 3 seniors starting
regularly among 15 upperclassmen & the Jayhawks have 8 senior starters (14 upperclassmen).
Despite a 4 game losing streak, the Gophers’ 7 wins marked the biggest 1 year improvement in
program history after a 1-11 disaster in ‘07. UM’s offense ranks #81 as they regularly start 5 frosh
including 3 on the OL. The headliners are soph QB Weber and 1st TM Big Ten WR Decker who led the
conference in rec’s despite totaling just 3 in the L/3 due to an ankle injury. The team lost RB Bennett
(ACL in the 2nd game) and had to go with true frosh Eskridge and Salamon. The OL started 9 different
lineups due to injuries and inexperience. The Gophers finished last in the league in rushing offense
which Brewster called “unacceptable” and he fired OL coach Phil Meyer after the season-ending 55-0
loss to Iowa. His replacement is ex-USC OL coach Tim Davis and Brewster said the team will use more
2 TE and 2 RB sets in the bowl. UM had the NCAA’s worst defense in ‘07 and Brewster upgraded the
unit athletically by signing several JC’s and moving players. UM led the Big Ten with 30 TO’s forced (#8
NCAA) while trimming its ypg allowed from 519 to 378 (#65 overall D). DE VanDeSteeg returned to
All-Big Ten form with a team leading 9.5 sks. Ex-DE Campbell led the team in tackles at MLB and JC
S Simmons led the conf with 17 passes defended. The ST’s are #42 in our rankings with PR Sherels
finishing #2 in the conf with a 12.4 avg.
KU has our #25 off avg 33 ppg & 431 ypg which is down 10 ppg & 49 ypg from its Orange Bowl ssn
LY. Two main reasons for the decline were the tm’s lack of health & the upgrade in the schedule (OU,
TT & UT pulled from the B12 S, avoided all in ‘07). KU returned 6 starters from LY, but lost its top RB,
WR & arguably the ‘07 nation’s best secondary player (Talib). QB Reesing’s numbers, as expected,
were down, but he did finish #21 in the NCAA in pass eff (145.8). Reesing was also overshadowed
due to the B12’s QB play, but only avg 251 ypg (56%) with 5 (42%) of his int vs the B12 S. WR Meier
provides a very reliable target as 66 (76%) of his rec resulted in FD’s (18 FD rec on 3rd/4th down). He
is the bkup QB who spends the majority of his time with them in practice. 2nd Tm B12 WR Briscoe had
six 100+ yd performances (3 straight). The running gm (#9 in B12 down 68 ypg from LY) suffered at
times with inj’s & playing catchup, but when healthy Sharp is a solid option. The OL avg 6’4” 308 (3 Sr
starters) paving the way for 129 ypg (3.7) while all’g 28 sks (6.0%). The def returned 9 starters from
the ‘07 squad, but the 30 ppg & 402 ypg allowed are the worst S/’03 (Mangino’s 2nd yr). They have
our #59 ranking & have gotten to opposing QB’s 26 times (5.3%). The DL avg 6’4” 271 (1 Sr). The LB
unit (3 Sr starters all back from ‘07) has been banged up all ssn. The secondary has had a problem
with inj’s also as KU moved former WR Patterson over to start at CB. KU has our #40 pass eff def
allowing 276 ypg (61%) with a 26-15 ratio. KU has our #95 ST unit & struggles in PR coverage (10.9
#86 in NCAA) while the net punting (33.0) is ranked #95. KU is #118 (17.4) in the NCAA in KR’s.
While it’s tough to back a Gopher squad that limps into this bowl with 4 straight losses, incl a 55-0
shutout, KU has ridden the coattails of last season’s overrated run and has been an AF once this year
almost losing as an 11 pt fav. Minny HC Brewster is changing some offensive schemes after firing his OL
coach after the Iowa loss which puts Kansas in a position of not knowing what to expect. The teams are
closer than this large line, and we’ll take the generous pts vs an unmotivated Jawhawks squad.
FORECAST: MINNESOTA (+) THE PTS KANSAS BY 7
RATING: 1* MINNESOTA

CHICK-fil-A BOWL

The ACC and SEC are tied 8-8 in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and 10 of those gms have been decided by a TD
or less. Their last meeting was the 2000 Peach Bowl when LSU upset #15 GT 28-14 (+8’), but GT is 12-6 SU
all-time in this series. GT is 0-3 all-time in this bowl while LSU is 4-0 and in ‘05 they blasted #9 Miami 40-3
(+7). In his 1st yr as HC, Paul Johnson was named the ACC COY with 9 wins (most ever by a GT HC) and
GT upset in-state rival UGA for the 1st time in 8 yrs. Johnson is 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) in bowls. Miles is 4-2 SU
(3-2-1 ATS) in bowls but has won and covered all 3 at LSU. LSU has been to a schl rec’d 9 consec bowls.
This is GT’s 12 str bowl and they are 22-14 all-time but have lost 3 str (1-2 ATS). Five of GT’s L/7 bowls have
been out West but now they get to play in the Georgia Dome which is just 2 miles from Dodd Stadium. LSU
is also familiar with this site as they’ve plyd here 6x’s S/‘00. GT is 2-4 SU & ATS as a bowl fav while LSU has
pulled 2 str upsets as a bowl dog. Both tms faced Miss St & UGA TY and GT was 2-0 SU & ATS winning by
an avg of 42-23 while LSU was 1-1 (0-2 ATS) and outscored 38-36. Fifteen of GT’s 22 starters will likely be
frosh or soph’s. On off there are no Sr starters & just 4 on D. LSU has 9 Sr starters and 18 upperclassmen
starters. GT faced 7 bowl tms TY and went 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS. LSU faced 6 and went 2-4 SU (1-5 ATS) being
outscored by an avg of 26-35. This gm is officially a sell-out with GT selling their 17,500 allotment and LSU
exp to sell theirs, but the crowd will likely be pro-GT. ACC teams are 6-4 SU/5-5 ATS TY vs SEC teams.
LSU becomes the 1st BCS defending champ to play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, and has clinched the worst
record by a defending BCS Champ at 7-5 (prior worst FL 9-4 in ‘07). Problems began in spg when QB Perrilloux
was dismissed leaving OC Crowton with Harvard transfer Hatch, rFr Lee and true frosh Jefferson (expected to
RS). Hatch st’d the 1st 3 then gave way to Lee and suffered a leg inj which caused him to miss the L/5. Lee st’d
the next 8 but struggled throwing 7 int ret’d for TD’s and then was inj’d vs Ole Miss leaving Jefferson (27 career
atts) the starter for the finale vs Ark. Miles said Jefferson will start the bowl but expects Hatch and Lee to play.
RB Scott was banged up at the end of the yr but still made 1st Tm SEC and should be healthy for the bowl. WR
LaFell was #2 in the SEC in rec pg, #3 in rec ypg. The OL starters avg 6’4” 316 led by 1st Tm SEC OG Johnson
(6’7” 375). LSU is #26 on off and #29 on def in our rankings. DC Pelini left LY to become HC of Neb and was
replaced by co-DC’s, Peveto & Mallory. LSU went from one of the top D’s in the country to 2nd last in the SEC
in scoring def and last in the SEC in pass D (#36 in our pass eff D rankings). Though there may be a coaching
change in the offseason, they will keep the staff intact for the bowl. Luckily the def will have 3 wks to prepare
for GT’s option which LSU defenders said they haven’t seen since HS. The DL avg 6’4” 287 with 3 Sr starters.
MLB Beckwith missed 2 full gms and wasn’t 100% and the secondary is inexperienced with 5 frosh & sophs
in the 2 deep. LSU is #19 in our sp tms rankings led by 1st Tm SEC K David who has rewritten LSU’s record
book. RS Holliday qualified for the Olympic trials (in 100M) and the team had a net of 37.2.
ACC POY Dwyer is the feature RB in Johnson’s spread-option off. He is the 2nd GT player in the L/3Y
to receive the honor (Calvin Johnson ‘06). Dwyer leads the ACC in rush yds and has rushed for 100 yds
9x’s TY to tie a GT record. WR Thomas is #5 in the ACC in rec ypg. GT’s OL avg 6’4” 290 with 0 Sr starters.
LT Gardner elected to have shldr surg in Nov and was lost for the yr but was still selected 1st Tm ACC and
RT Brown was lost with a spinal inj. The OL in led by LG Howard (2nd Tm ACC). GT is #3 in the NCAA avg
282 rush ypg (5.6) and all’d 18 sks (12.9%). GT has avg 402 ypg L/3 despite losing the 2 OL starters. GT
has our #42 off and #37 def. Tech has one of the top DL in the country that avg 6’4” 278 with 3 Sr starters
led by AA DE Johnson, 1st Tm ACC DT Walker, 2nd Tm ACC DT Richard and HM ACC DE Morgan (So).
The DL allows 3.5 ypc and tallied 24.5 of the tm’s 32 sks. The LB corps has been banged up TY but could
be healthy here. GT is #54 in the pass eff D all’g 196 ypg pass & is #9 in the NCAA with 18 int. The secondary
is led by 2nd Tm ACC S Burnett who is tied #1 in the NCAA for int. GT’s sp tms struggled TY (#91 our
rankings). GT is avg 19.4 ypr on KR’s and just 6.8 on PR’s. They allow 19.8 on KR’s and 8.5 on PR’s. GT
K Scott Blair ranks last in the ACC among bowl teams in FG’s and GT’s net punt avg is just 34.0.
Many doubted Johnson could bring his option offense to a BCS school and succeed and he proved them
wrong. GT has a shot at 10 wins for the 1st time S/‘98. LSU has lost 6 str ATS and lost the L2 reg ssn gms
for the 1st time S/’81. Those are the exact reasons we’ll side with LSU. It’s time to motivate quality players to
play to their potential and a fresh start to next year. LSU’s D is loaded with NFL caliber players and given extra
prep time the option will be containable. Expect LSU to show their pride after being instilled as a 4 pt dog.
FORECAST: LSU BY 7
RATING: 4* LSU

CKO

10 *GEORGIA TECH over Lsu
*GEORGIA TECH 34 - Lsu 20

Had this matchup taken place in September, LSU would have likely been a double-digit favorite. But on New Year's Eve in Atlanta, we have no problem laying a reasonable price with hometown GT. Much of the credit goes to first-year Jacket HC Paul Johnson, who transferred his pointspread magic from Navy while covering 8 of 10 on board. Meanwhile, disappointing LSU managed only two covers in '08, thanks partly to unstable QB situation (frosh Jefferson now starting) and underachieving "D" that never seemed to adjust to departure of shrewd d.c. Bo Pelini (now at Nebraska). Big defensive edge to Jacket stop unit that recorded 32 sacks and forced 29 TOs, while sloppy-tackling Tigers vulnerable to Johnson's pet spread option and thundering Tech RB Dwyer (1328 YR).

THE GOLD SHEET

ARMED FORCES BOWL
AIR FORCE (8-4) vs. HOUSTON (7-5)
Wednesday, December 31 Day at Fort Worth, TX (Grass Field)
Air Force 36 - Houston 33—It would be difficult to replicate the odd
dynamics of the season’s first meeting between these foes, a Sept. 13 battle
originally scheduled for UH’s Robertson Stadium moved 240 miles north to
SMU’s Ford Stadium in Dallas due to Hurricane Ike. That late venue switch and
early morning kickoff seemed to rattle the Cougs more than it did Air Force,
which coped with the windy and wet conditions while surging to a 31-7 lead
before a belated UH rally cut the final margin to 31-28. Along the way, the Falcs
did all of their business on the ground, gaining 380 YR while not completing a
pass. But many components are different in the rematch, not the least of which
is the fact AFA has a new QB (frosh Tim Jefferson), new starting TB (Asher
Clark), and WR Ty Paffett & TE Travis Dekker back from injury. And remember
that Houston was still adjusting to new HC Kevin Sumlin and staff in September.
Still, we can envision the rematch unfolding in a somewhat similar manner.
One dynamic that hasn’t likely changed much from the first meeting is the
Cougs’ ability (or inability) to slow down the Falc option, which has added a
potent element (Jefferson, quicker than former starting QB Shea Smith) to the
equation. Air Force’s ability to move the clock and the chains is also an
effective defense against QB Case Keenum (4788 YP & 43 TDP!) and the
prolific UH spread that piled up 600 yards or more in each of its last 4 games and
cracked the 40-point barrier in 7 of its last 8 outings. But without the defensive
playmakers to slow the option (note that Cougs forced only 17 TOs), UH could
be fighting an uphill battle once more.

SUN BOWL
PITTSBURGH (9-3) vs. OREGON STATE (8-4)
Wednesday, December 31 Day at El Paso, TX (FieldTurf)
Pittsburgh 31 - Oregon State 26—Although it was Pitt that prevailed in the
last bowl meeting between these two, when a Walt Harris-coached Panther
squad won the 2002 Insight Bowl over Oregon State (in Dennis Erickson’s last
game in charge at Corvallis) by a 38-13 count, recent bowl history suggests that
the Beavers should be far more comfy in postseason surroundings. That’s
because OSU has won its last four bowl appearances since ‘03 under HC Mike
Riley, while Pitt is making its first postseason trip in Dave “The ‘Stache”
Wannstedt’s four seasons in charge. But just because the Panthers are a slight
underdog and literal “bowl virgin” hardly suggests they are at a disadvantage.
Indeed, Pitt likely owns the one component most likely to deliver the gamedeciding
plays in slashing soph RB LeSean “Shady” McCoy, who followed up
his stellar frosh campaign (1328 YR) by gaining a whopping 1403 YR with 21
TDs in ‘08. Meanwhile, OSU’s top playmaker, frosh RB Jacquizz Rodgers (who
succeeded McCoy as the nation’s leading frosh rusher), could be slightly
compromised by a nagging shoulder injury that kept him out of the season finale
vs. Oregon, when the Ducks capitalized upon his absence by outrushing the
Beavs 385-89 while denying OSU its first Rose Bowl berth in 44 years. Should
the Panthers establish McCoy on the ground, QB Bill Stull can better stay in his
comfort zone while letting McCoy and fellow RB LaRod Stephens-Howling do
the grunt work. And note that Wannstedt has fared well recently as underdog,
covering 8 of his last 10 receiving points.

MUSIC CITY BOWL
BOSTON COLLEGE (9-4) vs. VANDERBILT (6-6)
Wednesday, December 31 Day at Nashville, TN (Grass Field)
VANDERBILT 16 - Boston College 13—Oklahoma vs. Florida, this ain’t.
Indeed, fans of high-powered offensive football might find this matchup as
appealing as reruns of Hannity & Colmes. On the other hand, defensive
aficionados might rate this among the most-compelling bowl contests, as an
accomplished pair of stop units appear well-equipped to turn this into a lowscoring
affair.
Which of these limited offenses is more likely to forge a breakthrough? In
truth, it might be neither, although we suspect that BC might be less likely to do
so with backup QB Dominique Davis again piloting the Eagle attack. BC has
been less-menacing since QB Chris Crane went down with a broken collarbone
in late November at Wake Forest, and Davis’ inexperience proved costly in the
ACC title game loss vs. Virginia Tech. Expect the well-conceived Commodore
“D” to have Davis similarly off balance by taking away the Eagles’ infantry
threat, much as Frank Beamer’s stop unit did in Tampa when helping to
contribute to Davis’ mistakes, which included a pair of picks and a fumble
returned for a TD. Granted, Vandy cracked the 14-point barrier once its last 8
games, but the Dores’ best offensive threat, sr. QB Chris Nickson, should be
the healthiest he’s been since September. And even though BC is more comfy
with postseason assignments, this Eagle edition is far less dynamic than recent
versions that have won 8 straight bowls, while SEC scouts report Vandy in a
buoyant mood for its first bowl appearance in 26 years. With a hometown
audience offering support, Dores capable of first bowl win since...1955!

INSIGHT BOWL
MINNESOTA (7-5) vs. KANSAS (7-5)
Wednesday, December 31 Day at Tempe, AZ (Grass Field)
Kansas 31 - Minnesota 16—Laying a substantial number of points in a bowl
game is usually a dicey proposition. However, the current conference pedigree
and end-of-season momentum of these two opponents raises substantial
questions about Minnesota’s prospects. The Gophers, using their muchimproved
defense to help them feast on marginal opposition for a 7-1 start, lost
their last four games, all of them to teams starting either backup QBs or former
2008 backup QBs. Moreover, Minny’s key weapon—6-2, 215 jr. WR Eric
Decker (76 recs., 925 yards, 7 TDs)—recently returned to the team following
arthro knee surgery. RB injuries and a youthful OL have led to a non-scary
ground game (3.1 ypc).
Kansas, meanwhile, is brimming with confidence after its season-ending 40-
37 victory over Missouri in the cold and wet at Arrowhead. The Jayhawks’
ground game has steadily improved (quick jr. Jake Sharp ended with 796 YR,
4.7 ypc & 11 TDR), and the passing game was always there with clever QB
Todd Reesing (66%, 28 TDs, 12 ints.) and WRs Kerry Meier (87 recs., 7 TDs),
Dezmon Briscoe (78 recs., 1206 yards, 12 TDs) & Jonathan Wilson (41 recs.).
KU’s five losses were all to top QBs and 2008 bowl teams, including Oklahoma,
Texas, and Texas Tech. The Jayhawks are on a 21-7 pointspread run over the
L2+Ys; 14 of their last 21 wins vs. FBS foes have been by DDs.
Time will tell whether 2008 is indeed one of the best in recent memory for the
Big XII and one of the worst for the Big Ten. But in the 2007 bowls, Big Ten
teams were only 3-5 SU and 2-4 as an underdog.

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
LSU (7-5) vs. GEORGIA TECH (9-3)
Wednesday, December 31 Night at Atlanta, GA (Dome; FieldTurf)
*GEORGIA TECH 34 - Lsu 23—If these two had faced off in the first, rather
than the final, game of this year’s campaign, defending national champ LSU
would likely have been favored by at least two TDs! Unfortunately for the
Tigers, reality managed to preempt preseason reputation, as killer mistakes by
their inexperienced QBs put too much pressure on the rebuilt LSU defense,
leading to 4 losses in its last 6 games (0-6 vs. the spread).
While it would be a mistake to dismiss the disappointed Bayou Bengals’
chances for victory—after all, they still have plenty of talent, as well as extra
time to prepare for Georgia Tech’s tricky option offense—we’re compelled to
back the go-with Ramblin’ Wreck for a number of reasons. First, brainy new
head coach & former Navy mentor Paul Johnson is a pointspread dynamo,
going 44-23-1 against the line in his last 68 games on the board. Second,
speedy but strong soph RB Jonathan Dwyer (13 TDs & ACC-best 1328 YR) is
bound to bust some big runs against the arm-tackling LSU defense. Third, and
perhaps most important, it’s going to be very tough for still-learning Tiger true
frosh QB Jordan Jefferson to maintain his composure under the intense
pressure that the aggressive, ball-hawking Tech stop unit (90 tackles for loss,
32 sacks, 29 “takeaways”) will bring. And lastly, don’t forget that the Yellow
Jackets will also be rooted on by a staunchly partisan crowd in their hometown
of Atlanta.

POINTWISE

HOUSTON (7-5) vs AIR FORCE (8-4)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
12:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Houston ..... 38.4 . 41- 31 .. 28-22 .. 162-170 .. 414- 249 .. - 5 . Houston
Air Force .... 41.0 . 27- 21 .. 18-19 .. 269-140 .... 80- 196 .. +12 . by 5.9 Pts

Rematch! These 2 met in week 3 of the regular season, with the Falcons of
Air Force (+2) racing to a 31-7 lead, en route to a 31-28 win. As per usual, the
Falcs controlled the running game, with a 380-172 yd edge, but a 6.1-5.4 ypr
deficit. It must be noted that AF was in off a pair of walkthroughs vs SoUtah &
Wyoming, while UH entered off a 56-37 loss to OklahomaSt. Thus, the 'Pokes
& Falcons put a whippin' on that Cougar rushing "D" to the tune of 379 & 380
yds. So take note of Houston's 170 RYpg "D" at year's end, which translates
into allowing just 127.5 RYpg vs its other 10 opponents. Yes, we know that the
'Force has already proven its worth vs the Coog "D", & once again ranks among
the overland elites, but we also acknowledge Houston improvement. It may
surprise some, but this is just AF's 2nd bowl in the last 6 seasons (but 2-for-2
under Calhoun). Last year, the Falcs (+4½) blew a 21-0 lead over Cal, in this
bowl, losing 42-36, despite a 312-202 RY edge. The Coogs are led by QB
Case Keenum, who ranks 1st in the nation in passing efficiency: 4,761 yds, 43
TDs (2nd only to Oklahoma's Heisman winning Bradford), & 67.3%. Beall
(1,119 RYs, 6.3 ypr) leads a running game, that averaged 5.2 ypr. And a batch
of receivers (Hafner, Carrier, etc) have also contributed to an offense, which
wound up #1 in total "O". For the Cougars, this marks their 5th bowl trip in the
past 6 years, the first as chalks. The past 2 years, they've missed the ATS
brass ring by just 2 & 1 pt, vs the likes of SoCarolina & TCU. Thus, more than
competitive. First year for head coach Kevin Sumlin, who was formerly "O"
coordinator with Oklahoma. Obviously, he has served Coogs well. Revenge!
PROPHECY: HOUSTON 38 - Air Force 31 RATING: 6

OREGON STATE (8-4) vs PITTSBURGH (9-3)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
2:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Oregon St ... 43.7 . 33- 25 .. 22-16 .. 165-135 .. 254- 189 .. + 2 . Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh .. 43.2 . 29- 23 .. 19-17 .. 143-128 .. 213- 193 .. - 4 . by 10.1 Pts

Not exactly what the Beavers of Oregon State were aiming for, in their season
finale with arch-rival Oregon. A win over the Ducks would have resulted in an
OSU Rose Bowl appearance for the first time since 1964. But it wasn't meant
to be, as they had to go it without Pac10 frosh record setter Jacquizz Rodgers,
with the ensuing 65-38 loss, the result. And 4 turnovers didn't help, with a pair
of interceptions taken the distance (40 & 70 yds). OSU entered that game on
a 7-1 spread run, by 109 pts, by the way. The Beavs, of course, shocked the
gridiron world, when they pinned the only loss on USC, as 24-pt dogs, no less.
In that one, Rodgers ran for 186 yds. Not only that, but USC was held to just
86 RYs (121 yds below its season average) & 313 total yds. At year's end,
Moevao was a decent 19/11, with 2,341 PY (60.5%). Defensively, OSU ranks
33rd overall, allowing only 3 teams to top 136 RYs. Bowl-wise, the Beavers
are 3-1 ATS under Riley since '03, averaging 38.3 ppg. In sharp contrast, this
is the very first bowl appearance for the Panthers of Pittsburgh, under the
leadership of Dave Wannstedt. Inheriting an 8-4 '04 Fiesta Bowl team, he has
hardly been the messiah hoped for by the Pitt faithful, with ensuing 5-6, 6-6, &
5-7 campaigns, before this year's splendid 9-3 mark. He's had his moments,
to be sure, especially with LY's season-ending upset of WestVirginia (32½ pt
cover), thereby depriving the Mounties of the BCS title tilt. Pitt has been led by
RB McCoy, who has amassed 2,731 yds & 35 TDs the past 2 years, but QB
Stull is nothing special thus far, 2,308 yds, but just 9/9. The dog is 23-6 ATS in
Pitt games, but the Beavers sure know how to light it up come bowl season.
PROPHECY: OREGON STATE 33 - Pittsburgh 20 RATING: 5

BOSTON COLLEGE (9-4) vs VANDERBILT (6-6)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
3:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Bost Coll .... 43.2 .. 26-19 .. 18-15 . 144- 92 .. 176- 181 .. + 6 . Bost Coll
Vanderbilt ... 46.6 .. 19-20 .. 15-18 .. 138-145 . 123- 174 .. + 6 . by 0.9 Pts

Twenty-six long years. That's how long the Commodores of Vanderbilt have
had to wait, since playing in their last bowl game, a 36-28 loss to AirForce in
the '82 Hall of Fame, as 9½ pt chalks, no less. In that one, they squandered a
28-17 lead after 3, with the Falcons' 331-35 RY edge, overcoming 452 PYs by
Vandy's Whit Taylor. By the way, that marked Vandy's 3rd-ever bowl contest.
The past 2 years have been near mirror images for the 'Dores, who needed
just a single win over their last 4 games in '07, only to come up empty, with a
25-24 loss to arch-rival Tennessee, the most irksome. This season, Vandy
opened with 5 wins (& covers), but promptly dropped 3 straight, before the
faithful breathed a collective sigh of relief, when they jumped to a 24-0 lead
over Kentucky, en route to a 31-24 win. Thus their streak of 25 consecutive
losing years was snapped, with the magic "bowl eligibility" label finally theirs.
As can be seen from the above stats, Vandy is hardly an offensive power,
ranking 118th, with an overland game which has topped 150 yds just once,
with QBs Nickson & Adams at just 49.2 (8/3) & 49.4 (5/8) respectively. Thus
a "D", which has held 6 foes below 18 pts, ranking 29th in the land, is their
bread-&-butter. But the bowl-tested Eagles of Boston College check in at #6
in total "D", holding 4 foes to 7 pts or less (3 shutouts). However, note BC's
other 8 opponents averaging 29.3 ppg. Thus, a bit of chink in that defensive
armor. Offensively, the Eagles check in at #94, down from LY's Matt Ryan led
"O", which finished 33rd best in the land. Eight straight bowl wins for BC, but
by just 25-24 & 24-21 scores last 2 years (ATS losses). Call for continuance.
PROPHECY: Boston College 23 - VANDERBILT 22 RATING: 6

KANSAS (7-5) vs MINNESOTA (7-5)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
5:30 PM EST -- NFL TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Kansas ....... 48.6 .. 33-30 .. 23-21 . 129-127 .. 302- 276 .. + 3 . Kansas
Minnesota .. 42.7 .. 23-23 .. 16-19 . 106-147 .. 216- 232 .. +12 . by 12.1 Pts

A year ago, these 2 squads couldn't have been more different, as the Jayhawks
of Kansas nearly ran the table, with a regular-season ending loss to Missouri
marring an otherwise perfect campaign. That's right: 12-1 straightup, with an
astounding 11-1 spread mark. The Jays made it to the 2nd spot in the nation,
before that Mizzou setback, & finished 8th in total "O", & 2nd in scoring. In
stark contrast, the Gophers of Minnesota, who were perennial bowl entrants
(5 straight from '02-'06) posted an unimaginable 1-11 log in '07, Tim Brewster's
1st year at the helm, after taking over from Glen Mason, who was let go after
Minny blew a 28-pt halftime lead, losing 44-41 (OT) to TexasTech in this same
bowl in '06. But this year, they won 7 of their first 8 (OhioSt), rising to the 20th
spot in the nation. Not only that, but they were on an 8-1 spread run, by 106½
pts. But things took a turn for the worse, as Minny dropped its final 4 games,
including a 55-0 home loss to Iowa, in its finale (23-6 FD, 222-7 RY, 483-134
TY deficits). The term "limping in" hardly seems strong enough. They are led
by QB Weber (2,585 yds, 62.8%, 14/8), with WR Decker his main target. But
check ranking 104th in rushing; certainly foreign to the Mason years. Forcing
the TO (30) seems their main forte. KU also struggled down the stretch, with
a 2-4 mark, allowing 39.3 ppg in those 6. Thus, a 94th "D" ranking, despite 9
returning starters to a unit which finished 12th a year ago. They are led, of
course by their brilliant QB, Todd Reesing, who has thrown for 7,053 yds & 61
TDs the past 2 years. However, note the Jays entered LY's Orange Bowl at
44 ppg. Hardly the overpowering squad from a year ago, so a mild Minny call.
PROPHECY: Kansas 31 - MINNESOTA 27 RATING: 5

GEORGIA TECH (9-3) vs LSU (7-5)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
7:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Ga Tech ...... 47.3 .. 26-18 .. 17-17 .. 282-117 ... 95- 196 .. + 5 . Ga Tech
LSU ............. 46.6 .. 30-26 .. 20-16 .. 167-106 . 206- 221 .. - 4 . by 6.2 Pts

Quite a comedown for the defending National Champion Tigers of LSU. Last
year, they made it to the BCS title game, despite an 11-2 record (43-37, 50-48
OT losses to Kentucky & Arkansas), triumphing over OhioSt, 38-24 (10-pt
cover). The Bengals lost 10 starters from that squad, including QB Flynn,
who, altho nothing special, owned a 21/11 TD to INT ratio, throwing for 4 TDs
in the title game, with just a single pick. That squad finished the season with
the 3rd best "D" in the land, the 11th best overland game, & with the 2nd best
TO ranking (+20). Contrast that to this year, with the Tigers ranking 36th in
total "D", 42nd in rushing, & 78th in TO ratio. Their main man is RB Scott, who
finished with 1,109 yds (5.5 ypr) & 15 TDs. Lee is their new man under center,
but is hardly reliable (53%), with just 14 TDs, & 16 INTs (7 of which were taken
the distance). Check an 0-6 spread run to finish up the season, while being
stung for 31, 31, & 31 pts in their final 3 games. Rushing "D" seems their only
forte, but that unit had better be at its best, if it is to contain the Yellow Jackets
of Georgia Tech, & their triple option offense installed by new head coach Paul
Johnson. Sure, the Tigers are a holiday fixture (9 straight yrs), but almost
unnoticed, this marks the Jackets' 12th consecutive bowl season. Tho not
making it into the ACC title match, Tech is arguably the hottest team in the
conference, scoring 41 & 45 pts, with 472 & 409 RYs in their season-ending
wins over Miami & Georgia (snapping a 7-game slide vs the 'Dawgs). QB
Nesbitt is the optioneering trigger, with Dwyer at 1,328 RYs (7.0 ypr) & 12 TDs.
LSU: 1st team since '43 to follow national title with losing league record. Tech!
PROPHECY: GEORGIA TECH 34 - Lsu 24 RATING: 3

Logical Approach

Armed Forces Bowl - Fort Worth, TX - Wednesday, December 31, 2008
This is the second rematch of a regular season game. In the first rematch Wake Forest avenged a regular season loss to Navy in the Eagle Bank Bowl, winning 29-19. In the earlier meeting between these teams Air Force edged Houston That game was moved from Houston to Dallas in the wake of Hurricane Ike and after Houston took an early 7-0 lead Air Force scored 31 straight points to lead 31-7 before Houston rallied to score the final 21 points to fall just short in the Air Force 31-28 win. Houston had a 534 to 380 yardage edge with a dominant passing attack that was their strength all season. Houston led the nation with 575 yards per game with an average rushing game (162 ypg, # 50) and a potent passing game (414 ypg, # 2). Air Force ran the ball exceptionally well (269 ypg, # 5) but had virtually no aerial game (80 ypg, # 118). In face, Air Force was 0 for 7 through the air in the first meeting. Air Force had a significant edge in the defensive stats but still netted only 14 more ypg gained than allowed while Houston was plus 156 ypg. Houston scored at least 41 points in 7 of their last 8 games while Air Force scored 41 points just once - in a season opening 41-7 win over FCS/I-AA Southern Utah. Both teams have not enjoyed much recent Bowl success. Houston has lost in each of the past 3 seasons and 8 straight Bowls. Their last Bowl win was over Navy in the 1980 Garden State Bowl. Air Force has had sporadic Bowl success over the years but the Falcons have lost their last 2 Bowls with their last win coming in the 2000 Silicon Valley Bowl. Given the circumstances surrounding their first meeting and the flow and statistics in that game, as well as the more potent and quick strike offense, Houston is clearly the better team. They play with the motivation for same season revenge and to end their lengthy streak of Bowl failures - especially now that Notre Dame ended their 9 Bowl losing streak. Air Force will be well disciplined and well prepared but they also appear overmatched. Houston wins 41-30, making

HOUSTON a 3 Star Selection
OVER a 2 Star Selection

Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX - Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Both teams had successful seasons, finishing tied for second in their respective conferences. Pitt had a solid finish to their season, winning 4 of 5 including a second straight win over arch rival West Virginia. Oregon State closed by winning 6 of 7 but that lone loss was to arch rival Oregon 65-38 in their finale. It was a costly loss as a win would have sent OSU to their first Rose Bowl in 40+ seasons! Clearly the team had to be totally dejected after that loss and their motivation for this game has to be questioned. But perhaps the lengthy layoff of more than a month will have eased the disappointment and the Beavers may want to show they are a better team than they showed in that loss - or in an early season 45-14 loss at Penn State. We know they are a better team as OSU was the only team to defeat USC, winning 27-21 in late September and the win was by no means a fluke. Statistically OSU is the slightly better team on offense while the defenses are fairly even. Pitt won 5 of 6 road games this season, 4 of which came against Bowl bound teams. OSU was just 3-3 on the road but all 3 wins came in their 3 most recent road games with only one against a fellow Bowler (19-17 at Arizona). Pitt is in their first Bowl game in four seasons while OSU in their third straight Bowl and eighth in 10 seasons. Oregon State has won each of their last 4 Bowls with their last Bowl loss, ironically, to Pitt in the 2002 Insight Bowl, 38-13. The players and coaches are different this time around so any OSU revenge motive is insignificant at best. This is one of the more difficult games to call as there are as many negatives for each team as there are positives. Pitt struggled to run the ball down the stretch, held to under 100 yards in 3 of their last 4 games after topping 110 and averaging 164 in their first 8 games. The better option may be in looking towards the total but our enthusiasm for that is at best lukewarm. The forecast is for Oregon State to win 31-27, making

OREGON STATE a 1 Star Selection
OVER a 2 Star Selection

Music City Bowl - Nashville, TN - Wednesday, December 31, 2008
The quarter century drought is over for Vanderbilt as the Commodores are in their first Bowl game since the 1982 Hall of Fame Bowl (in which they lost to Air Force). And they get to play in their home city to boot. But the Bowl berth did not come easy as Vandy as that lone win to become Bowl eligible after a 5-0 start took 5 more games before 5-4 Vandy defeated Kentucky. Thus their 6-6 finish includes a 1-6 mark over the last half of the season. Boston College had another fine season even after losing QB Matt Ryan to the NFL but ended with a second straight loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Title game, denying BC a spot in a BCS Bowl. BC has been a solid Bowl team and is making a tenth straight Bowl appearance. The Golden Eagles have won their last 8 Bowls, covering in the first 6 of those wins before falling to the spread each of the past two seasons (when they won by 1 and 3 points). Both teams are much stronger on defense than on offense. Each has an average rushing offense but a weak passing attack and BC has most of the statistical edges, although they are slight. Vandy's most notable stat edge is in turnovers as their defense caused 2.2 turnovers per game (# 18) while BC's offense averaged 2.3 turnovers per game (# 103). BC's defense was even better at creating turnovers (2.8 per game, # 2) but Vandy's offense was better than average at protecting the football. BC's Bowl experience rates a major edge but that may be somewhat offset by Vandy's ACC pedigree and home site. It's hard to make a case for a favorite to win and not cover a FG spread but this may be such a situation. Vandy will be highly motivated for this game and will enjoy huge crowd support. But BC has the ability to come from behind and erase a late deficit. A stronger case can be made for a low scoring game. Boston College wins but by just 17-16, making

VANDERBILT a 1 Star Selection
UNDER a 4 Star Selection .

Insight Bowl - Tempe, AZ - Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Minnesota made one of the more dramatic turnarounds this season, going from 1-11 last season to 7-5 this season. But that 7-5 included a 7-1 start as the Gophers ended the season losing 4 straight including a 55-0 home loss to Iowa to close the regular campaign. Kansas followed up last season's 12-1 mark with a solid 2008 season that ended with a wild 40-37 upset win (as + 16) over Missouri. Neither team faced much of a non-conference slate. Minny lost their only test against a true quality team, 34-21 at Ohio State. Kansas played and lost to the 3 powerhouses from the Big 12 South. Prior to last season Minnesota had been to 5 straight Bowls, losing the last 2 -- each by a FG - after winning each of the prior 3. That most recent loss to Texas Tech cost former coach Glen Mason his job after Minny blew a huge lead and lost in OT. So 2007 was a year of transition with a new coaching staff but still with players who had been to several straight Bowls. Kansas is in a second straight Bowl but are in their first ever back to back Bowls. Given all this the line may seem unusually high but it is reflective of the oddsmakers opinion of the difference between the Big 10 and Big 12 conferences as well as the way Minnesota ended the regular season. Kansas clearly was the more tested team and has the more potent offense and arguable a defense that has been tested against better offenses. Kansas wins 31-17, making
KANSAS a 1 Star Selection
UNDER a 2 Star Selection .

Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Atlanta, GA - Wednesday, December 31, 2008
This Bowl has to be a disappointment for defending BCS Champion LSU which had much higher expectations starting the season. Their 2-9 ATS record is more indicative of how far short they fell of meeting those expectations than is their 7-5 S/U record. Georgia Tech had a very successful season under first year coach Paul Johnson who brought his strong running game philosophy from Navy and it worked very well. The Yellow Jackets ranked # 3 in the nation rushing for 282 ypg. The pass game was almost non-existent, averaging just 95 ypg (# 117). Both teams were very solid defensively against the run, with LSU # 17 and Tech # 22. LSU had a more balanced offense, relying a bit more on the pass than on the run. Both teams played Mississippi State and Georgia with Tech having the better results. GT ended the season with a 45-42 road win at Georgia after routing MSU 38-7 earlier in the season. LSU also defeated MSU 34-24 but lost badly to Georgia, 52-38, at home, one of 3 home losses sustained by the Tigers this season. This is a virtual home game for Georgia Tech while it's a long driving distance for LSU supporters who may not be too interested in making this trip after playing for (and winning) the BCS Title a year ago. Still, we must consider the SEC pedigree vs that of the ACC notwithstanding the games against the two common SEC foes. After winning the 2003 National Title LSU found itself in a lesser Bowl the following season and lost, 30-25, to Iowa in the Capital One Bowl as a 6 point favorite. Here they are the underdog and they are also making ninth straight Bowl appearance, winning their last 3 Bowls since that loss to Iowa. Overall LSU is 6-2 in those prior 8 Bowls both S/U and ATS including 3-1as an underdog. GT is in a Bowl for a twelfth straight season. They have lost each of their last 3 Bowls including 2 in which they were favored. Considering Tech's one dimensional attack and LSU's time to prepare for it, LSU's role as and an underdog and their history of Bowl success gives them an edge despite the site edge for Tech. LSU wins 27-20, making

LSU a 3 Star Selection
UNDER a 2 Star Selection