JIMMY BOYD
1 Unit on Minnesota +10
I know the Jayhawks have a high powered passing attack but they are soft defensively and that makes these 10 points look pretty attractive. Minnesota's last time on the field was ugly as it was crushed 55-0 in a rivalry game with Iowa. The Gophers have made a great turnaround from a year ago but they are not about to lay down to end the year with 5 straight defeats. The Jayhawks defense is allowing a terrible 39.4 ppg on the road this season and they are only 1-14 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. Minnesota's offense has been at its best on the road scoring 27.8 ppg and will be able to move the football against the porous KU defense. Lastly, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points; an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 30-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Take the points.
Mr A
Houston Cougars vs. Air Force Falcons
I believe this will be a very close and exciting battle, Cougars passing attack and Air Force ground attack will both keep scoring. Take the over.
Over -64½
Oregon State vs. (18) Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh solid defense will smother the Beavers offense, especially with the Rodgers brothers out.
Pittsburgh Panthers +2½
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt
The Eagles are the better team on both sides of the ball and should have no problems against the struggling Commodores.
Boston College Eagles -3½
Kansas vs. Minnesota
Both teams struggled down the stretch, but the Jayhawks' offense led by quarterback Todd Reesing will take advantage of Golden Gophers vulnerable secondary.
Kansas Jayhawks -9
LSU vs. Georgia Tech
LSU defense has struggled and will have a big task against the hot Yellow Jackets in their backyard.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -4½
NBA
Orlando Magic -6½
Houston Rockets -8½
Drew Gordon
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt +4 at Nashville, TN
Wow, the average bettor is just loving this Boston College team this afternoon, and fact is, I couldn't disagree more! Guys, Virginia Tech torched this Eagles team with QB Domonique Davis filling in for the injured Chris Crane, and in the process gave the Commodores the blueprint for keeping this game close. Look for Vandy to throw in some new wrinkles on defense, tailor-made to play off Davis' inexperience (completed just 39% of his passes against Virginia Tech, with 1 TD and 2 INTs).
There's no question Vandy's offense has been dowright awful this season, but this is where the extra time to prepare and motivation comes into play. While Boston College could easily lack motivation after falling one game short of an Orange Bowl bid, the Commodores are ecstatic about playing in a bowl for the first time in 26 years. Coupled with over a month of time to gameplan for the Eagles defense, I say the Commodores surprise a few people with a better than expected offensive effort today.
Finally, while I mentioned Domonique Davis, I didn't mention his greatest obstacle... An excellent Vandy secondary, led by stud CB Moore and his 6 picks this season (on the other side, Lewis has 4 picks & 5 sacks). You know Davis will struggle at times in a very hostile environment, as the Eagles fans do not travel well, and that could spell disaster against a ball-hawking secondary. In the end, the public is in love with Boston College here, and coupled with the other factors mentioned above, the only play here is the Commodores, plain and simple!
Take Vanderbilt plus the points over Boston College in today's Music City Bowl.
3♦ VANDERBILT
Tom Freese
Philadelphia 76ers at LA Clippers
Philadelphia is 4-0 OVER their last 4 road games and they are 35-15-2 OVER their last 52 games as road favorites. The Sixers are 5-1-1 OVER as road favorites of 4.5 or less points and they are 9-4 OVER on Wednesday. The Clippers are 6-0 OVER on Wednesday and they are 4-1 OVER vs. a team with a losing road record. Los Angeles is 5-2 OVER as home dogs of 4.5 or less points and they are 5-2 OVER their last 7 games vs. Eastern Conferences teams.
Play on: Over
Vegas Experts
Evansville at Illinois State
The Redbirds have to lose sooner or later, right? They barely covered their last game on the road, a three-point win at Missouri State, covering as 2.5-point favorites. The Evansville Aces will be the most difficult opponent they've faced thus far, with nine wins and only losses to North Carolina and Butler on its resume. Seems like a generous amount of points, as we note Evansville is 16-6 ATS off a home win.
Play on: Evansville
John Ryan
Bradley vs. Wichita State
Play:Wichita State -6
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Wichita State – AiS shows an 80% probability that Wichita State will win this game by 6 or more points. AiS shows a 90% probability that Wichita State will win the battle of the boards by at least 10. Note that Bradley is just 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) when they grab 10+ fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 3 seasons. Bradley is off a nice win by 16 points over Southern Illinois 79-63 and were 1 point favorites. However, Bradley is just 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in road games after a game where they covered the spread since 1997. Wichita State is off a poor game at Creighton losing 68-56 installed as 11 point dogs and shot just 35%. The last time they shot poorly was on 11/27 facing Georgetown when they hit just 27%. In the next game against Sienna they shot 50% and won 72-20 as 8 point dogs. Wichita State has a huge edge physically on the boards and they are projected to shoot very well. A great combo for a big win. Take Wichita State.
Matt Fargo
Louisiana Monroe at Arkansas Little Rock
Prediction: Arkansas Little Rock
Arkansas-Little Rock looks to bounce back following a home loss against Rice on Sunday. It was a tough spot for the Trojans as they were coming off a SBC opening win over Arkansas St. and then had eight days off following that so the rust definitely kicked in. They will try for a 2-0 start in the conference as they were picked to finished first in the Sun Belt West Division by many outlets. The Trojans are 5-2 at home thus far and that includes a win over Creighton. Little Rock has advantages in every statistical category with the exception of free throw shooting but that difference is just 1.4 percent and it actually does have the edge in home/road games. The Warhawks are 4-8 on the season but it is important to note that the home team is 11-1 in their games this season. They are 0-7 on the road this season, and they enter the game ranked dead last in the Sun Belt in field goal shooting at 38 percent, three-point shooting at 28.1 percent, defensive field goal shooting at 46.8 percent and turnover margin at -3.3 per game. UL-Monroe has played a schedule ranked 246th in the nation so that makes those numbers even worst. Sticking out the most is the Warhawks dismal 0.52 assist/turnover ratio which is 337th in the nation. That ratio drops even more on the road where it is at 0.47 while the defense is allowing a 1.26 ratio to the opposition. The Trojans bounce back and roll in this one. 3* Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans
Brian Hansen
Columbus Blue Jackets at Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks
The Blue Jackets seek to post three consecutive shutouts for the first time in the franchise's existence when they continue their season-high six-game road trip Wednesday night against the Anaheim Ducks; that being said, I look for the Ducks to break the Blue Jackets big time tonight. In fact this is a great spot for Anaheim which is 4-1 its last 5 after playing 3 consecutive road games; play on the DUCKS!
Frank Jordan
North Carolina vs. Nevada
Play: North Carolina -18.5
North Carolina is the number one team in the land with 12 wins in their first dozen games and 3-0 on the road. Nevada isn't playing too poorly with a 7-5 record and 5-2 at home. North Carolina isn't just winning they are dominating as they have won each game by 15 or more points. Nevada is playing hot of late having won 4 of their last 5 games, but making it 5 of 6 will not be easy. Look for North Carolina to make a perfect 13 for 13 in the fall/winter of 2008 before starting the 2009 part of the schedule. Play North Carolina
John Fisher
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt
Play:Boston College -3.5
Both teams are heralded for their defenses. BC are tops in the nation in TO. Look for BC to claim victory by winning field position battle and key TO's. BC 26 Vandy 13
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Bradley +6
Bradley is a better team than its 7-5 record shows. It has gone out and played a tough non-conference schedule and has a few more losses to show for it. There is no way the Braves should be a 6-point dog to the Shockers and we will catch the books in their mistake. Bradley is 9-0 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons while Wichita State is 0-6 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. Bradley won at Wichita State by 9 last season and I like the Braves again in 2008. Take the points.
Wunderdog
Minnesota vs. Kansas
Pick: Minnesota +8.5
The Jayhawks had high hopes bringing back a lot of the key pieces from a 12-1 team a year ago. That team however never had to play Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma. So although they were a very good team, their schedule made that good team look better. This season they had to play all of those teams and went 0-3. They not only went 0-3, but they were out-scored by a count of 59-143. They simply weren't competitive. The Jayhawks' offense was very good early this season. The defense brought back eight players from a year ago and started strong the first half of the season as they allowed just 18 points per game in their first six. From that point on they couldn't stop anyone as all six of their remaining opponents outscored that 18 ppg average. The points allowed over the last six games were a discouraging 41 ppg! The Gophers had a big start going 7-1, but fell apart over the last month of the season and were a no-show in their season finale against Iowa dropping the game 55-0. Outside of that one horrible game, the Gophers were highly competitive against some of the better teams. They lost to Ohio State on the road by just 13 and on the road against Wisconsin by just three. It is hard to back a team laying more than a TD when they have given up 41 ppg in their last six games - such as the Jayhawks. There is some further evidence to back that up as the Jayhawks have gone 1-14 ATS after giving up 31 or more points in three-straight games. I'll take the Gophers and the bundle of points in this one.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Michigan -3
Home court is always big in the Big Ten conference and Michigan has defense its home court well this season with a perfect 8-0 mark that has included a win over Duke. Michigan is 5-1 ATS in all lined games this year. This is a huge revenge game for Michigan which has taken some lumps from Wiscy of late, but now the Wolverines have the better team and they will not let up on the Badgers tonight. The Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Lay the points.
Michael Cannon
Pitt -13 at RUTGERS
Take Pitt minus the big number on the road tonight over Rutgers.
Pitt has the revenge factor working for them here as Rutgers knocked off the Panthers 77-64 in Pittsburgh on January 26 last year.
Rutgers is coming off a loss at North Carolina on Sunday, now plays Pitt and has Connecticut on deck Saturday. Their morale could be shaken if they fall behind early and the Panthers suffocating defense will be enough to keep the Scarlet Knights from mounting a comeback.
Pitt’s defense led the way in their 56-48 win at Florida State on December 21, closing out the game with an 8-0 run over the final 2:33.
The Panthers are too deep and too talented and their half-court defense will wear Rutgers down as the game goes on.
Take Pitt minus the points as they grab the road win and cover.
2♦ PITT
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt +4
Take the under in this afternoon’s Music City Bowl between Boston College and Vanderbilt.
Both teams field good defenses. Boston College ranks in the Top 20 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense and yards per carry.
Vanderbilt gives up just 20.1 ppg, 318.7 ypg and 173.7 passing ypg.
Boston College will also be starting redshirt freshman Dominique Davis at quarterback with Chris Crane out with an injury. Davis is the main reason Boston College lost to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game.
Vanderbilt will be sure to put the game in Davis’ hands and force him to beat them.
Meanwhile, the Commodores offense isn’t anything special, ranking 104th in the nation. Boston College already has a strong defense which compounds the problem for Vandy.
Boston College has played under in four of its last five non-conference games and are 12-5 under in its last 17 on grass.
Vandy is on under runs of 7-2 overall, 7-3 on grass, 11-4-1 as an underdog and 11-5-1 against winning teams.
Take the under as this one stays below the posted total.
4♦ UNDER
Drew Gordon
Orlando at CHICAGO +6
Solid play here on the home dog Bulls, as the underdog comes into this game a sterling 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two teams! Not only that, but while we all know the Magic have been profitable on the road (10-4-1 ATS), there's also no doubt that Chicago has been at their most profitable at the United Center, going 8-5 ATS there this season. In fact, in their last game there, they beat a damn good Jazz team easily 106-98, so underestimate them at your own risk!
Also, its no secret the public is fading the Bulls because they've lost 3 of their last 4 games, but let's not get carried away. All 4 of those games were on the road, and a solid win in their last one was exactly what they needed before returning home to face on of the East's best teams. Also, when you couple that with a lazy Magic loss in their last roadie (at Detroit) and the situational edge goes to Chicago as well.
Finally, let's not forget how competitive the Bulls were in their last meeting with Orlando, losing (but covering easily) 96-93 in a game they could've won outright if they hit their free throws! Guys, I'm not saying the Bulls win outright here, but what I am saying is they've shown the ability to match up with the Magic, and it'll pay off once again here this afternoon. Bulls have gone to a smaller more 3-point based attack, and that will work well against an Orlando team that does not particularly play well on the perimeter (allow 34% shooting from long-range on the road this season). In the end, too much value to be had with a feisty home dog in this one!
Take Chicago plus the points over Orlando in this NBA match up.
2♦ CHICAGO