Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take the points with the Nets.
Right now the Celtics are not the team they were and once again I will scoop up points against them.
Doc Rivers' squad is still the defending champion and a team that opened up the season with that unreal 29-2 or whatever record but ever since the defeat at Staples things have just not been the same at all. These guys needed overtime on Monday as the 9 1/2 point home chalk against Toronto just to win that game and even with beating the same Raptors on the road the day before have still dropped four of six and seven of 10 SU. The C's have also failed to cover in fix of six with a push and have burned their backers in eight of 10 with that same push.
New Jersey is not a great team by any means and should lose this game as KG, Allen and Pierce are still a very formidable threesome but Devin Harris is a blossoming stud, Brooke Lopez has been great and Vince Carter is no joke either. In the end I do expect Lawrence Franks' team to lose as playing in Beantown is still far from easy but until Boston shows anything at all I have no problem going against them in this big dog spot and back the Nets, who have covered five of their last six.
Boston is clearly lacking confidence right now and until we see anything change are still a total must go against!
Jake Timlin
Your Wednesday selection is the Wyoming Cowboys.
I understand that Wyoming’s recent defeats look bad, but that does not justify them being a home dog as it is never easy traveling to Laramie. Not when the Cowboys are a perfect 10-0 straight up at home this season and who will be fully rested after last playing 11 days ago. Sure there could be some rust with the extra days off, but I expect for the extra practice to pay huge benefits for a Wyoming team that is good enough to challenge for a top stop in the league. Meanwhile, never under estimate the power of 7,200 feet about sea level as it clearly takes a toll on visiting teams, including the Aztecs as they have lost 3 of their last 4 trips to Wyoming. Plus, given that MWC home teams are 9-2 in conference play road teams are always in for a tough night. Well that includes tonight in Laramie as I look for the Cowboys either wins outright or loss a heartbreaker in the end. All Wyoming plus the home points!
Lockoftheday
Today's Lock: Wake Forest -4
Wake Forest has a super team. They are coming off a strong win over former #1 North Carolina. The Deamon Deacons have a top notch back court and an even better front court. Sure, BC beat North Carolina too, but Wake is the better team here. They will prove that this evening in Boston. Wake is a Lock.
Vernon Croy
Washington Wizards vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks
The Wizards have struggled on the road this season with a 2-15 SU record and now they face a Knicks team that has owned them with a 17-7 SU Record over their last 24 meetings. The Wizards are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against the Knicks and they have lost their only 2 meetings against the Knicks this season by an average of 5.5 points per game. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against a Southeast Division opponent while the Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against an Atlantic division opponent and 1-8 ATS this season. The Wizards are shooting just 30.7% from beyond the arc overall this season while the Knicks are shooting 38% from 3 point range at home this season and the Knicks are the better rebounding team at home tonight where they have averaged 52.9 rebounds per game this season. The Wizards have been out-scored by an average of 9 ppg on the road this season and I look for the Knicks to build off of their huge 6 point road win against the Hornets as 11.5 point dogs. Take the New York Knicks.
John Ryan
Game: South Florida at Pittsburgh
Prediction: South Florida
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on South Florida as they travel to number one ranked Pittsburgh slated to start at 7:00 EST AiS shows a 71% probability that SFU will lose this game by 20 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-9 ATS for 81% since 2002. Play against favorites of 10 or more points after 8 or more consecutive wins and is a top-level team sporting a win percentage of >=80% playing a marginal losing team sporting a win percentage of 40% to 49%. Here is a second system that has gone 30-8 ATS for 79% since 1997. Play on road dogs of 10 or more points off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival facing an opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. SF is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. In their last game SF traveled to DePaul and won 80-58 and were 6.5 point dogs. That is a huge psychological win as well and will help them compete against a number ranked team like Pittsburgh. Take SFU.
Nite Owl Sports
Portland Trailblazers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: 2 units: Portland Trailblazers -1
Here we have a match-up of a 23-14 Blazers team again at full strength, with the return of star Brandon Roy two games ago from a hamstring injury that kept him out of four games, against a 17-20 team missing one of its best players in Elton Brand (16 ppg, 10 rpg). After an ugly 1-5 streak after Brand went down with his injury, the Sixers seem to have righted their ship lately, having won last 4 games SU and covered their L5, with a two point covering loss at SA being the only "blemish" in those L5 games. And three of the four wins were over some decent teams (Milw, Houston and Atlanta). But is Philly really poised to make a run or will it just be more of the same crappy play tonite that they have shown so far TY at home against > ,500 teams, with a 2-7 ATS home record vs such teams, including 2-4 ATS at home vs "B" teams like Blazers, with average margin -4 points (and two of the aforementioned 3 good recent Sixer wins were on the road, with the home win being over injury depleted and inconsistent Houston). We expect the latter, as we are still not "sold" on Sixers w/o Brand, and they are playing tonite in a negative "rest mode" for them, as opposed to Blazers playing in a good one for them. Specifically, Blazers are playing on one day's rest, a mode where they are 13-6 SU TY with an average win by 5 points in those 19 games, while philly is a lousy 2-7 SU with an average loss by 7 points when playing on two or more days of rest, the mode they are in tonite.
While Portland has gotten most of its wins at home TY (14-4 SU at home compared to 9-10 away), Blazers have fared much better away vs C teams (and Philly is a C team w/o Brand), going 4-3 ATS with an average victorious margin of 8.5 points in those 7 games (as opposed to just 3-9 ATS visiting A and B teams), with a convincing 14 point win in Chicago LG, in their most recent game in this preferred role. But it's not just that they won, it's also that they won pretty easily despite their two top scores (Roy and Aldrdge) having bad shooting nights and scoring only 11 and 8 points, respectively. And it was once again "the outlaw" (Travis Outlaw) who filled the scoring void with 33 points, after hitting for 19 the game before, in Blazers' 13 point home win over golden state.
We have had lots of recent success going with small road faves and road dogs in this range of +3 to -2 points, where we are getting the better team and good line value, as we are here -- for example, our douible wins last 3 nights on our top NBA Plays of the Day, with double victories (both ATS and vs money line) on Miami over Minny last night, Milw over Wash Wiz Monday night, and orlando over SA Sunday night, for a combined 6-0 and about +15 units. And speaking of our Plays of the Day, we are an eye popping 42-15 (74%) for a ridiculous +75 units on our last 57 such picks, covering about two months.
At this line of -1, we would suggest taking Portland for two units.
Wunderdog
Fordham at Dayton
Pick: Fordham +21.5
Once the pointspread reaches the 20+ mark in a conference game you have to start looking toward the dog. As bad as Fordham has been this season, they still have only suffered two losses by 20 or more. The Flyers are an upstart team that is making noise in the A-10 and stand a perfect 10-0 at home, but went out and laid an egg against Umass in their last game on the road by 13. Dayton isn't exactly blowing teams out as they have just one win by 20 plus in their last 13 and their performance against the line in the A-10 isn't making anyone money as they are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 within the conference. Too many points here and the Rams get the call.
Drew Gordon
Sacramento at GOLDEN STATE -5
Two NBA doormats match up here, but one team clearly has the advantage, and that's the Warriors at home with their blistering offense. We've seen this Golden State team stand up and deliver in Oakland plenty this season, incl. wins against Denver, Portland, Boston, and most recently Indiana this past Sunday! Expect more of the same tonight.
Kings got absolutely crushed by the Magic at Arco last night, and the last thing they need is to face another high-octane offense the very next day, on the road no less! Granted, both defenses are terrible in this contest, but its the Kings lowly 95 ppg average on the road that has to have their backers worried. Sacto simply doesn't have enough firepower to hang with the Warriors, esp. now that they got Maggette back and playing.
Finally, let's not forget, the last time these two played the Kings layed it on the Warriors, humbling them 115-98 at Arco in November. Payback is a bitch, as the Warriors are playing rock-solid ball at home, and know they can take full advantage of a road-weary, fatigued, & otherwise awful Kings defense tonight. Warriors roll!
Take Golden State over Sacramento in this NBA match up.
2* GOLDEN STATE
South Florida at PITTSBURGH -20'
After an impressive performance at Depaul, I can understand why some bettors would be siding with the Bulls at Pittsburgh tonight. But Rest-assured, there's a BIG difference between playing at Depaul and playing at Pitt, and the Bulls will learn that lesson the hard way tonight.
First and foremost, besides Depaul, what has South Florida shown us on the road, except inconsistency? They got crushed at Oral Roberts at a 1-point fav, they crushed at Vanderbilt, and even lost by 8 at Central Florida... And this is the team that's going to stay competitive with the # 1 ranked Panthers tonight?
Look guys, its no secret that in order to stop the Bulls you need to stop their 3-headed backcourt attack of Jones, Verdejo, and Howard. And there's no team better qualified than the Panthers, with their outstanding defense and strong backcourt play. Just ask St. John's how good the Panthers D is, as they forced the Red Storm into a season-high 24 turnovers Sunday!
On the flip side, how do the Bulls stop the Panthers frontcourt of Young and Blair? Their two best bigmen are underclassmen (Gilchrist, Ajayi), and are seriously outmatched here. Couple that with the fact they still have to stop a red-hot guard duo of Dixon (17 points vs St. John's) and Fields (13 points, 9 assits vs St. John's), and we've got all the makings of a major blowout tonight.
Bottom line, lay the points, as the Panthers protect their house with the same ferocity we saw against St. John's Sunday. South Florida has collapsed on the road before (Oral Roberts comes to mind), and they'll collapse again tonight in their toughest road game of the season.
Take Pittsburgh BIG over South Florida in this college hoops match up.
2* PITTSBURGH
Chris Jordan
Maryland at MIAMI -8
The Terrapins haven’t won at Miami in three tries since the Hurricanes joined the ACC in 2004. But we only need to look back to last season, when Maryland shot 37.1 percent and dropped a 78-63 decision. And that was against a Miami team that wasn’t exactly a well-rounded bunch. The ‘Canes haven’t gotten that many in the stands this season, but this is a big enough game that we might be able to expect somewhat of a raucous crowd.
Miami comes into this one on ATS runs of 12-5 after an ATS win and 27-11 overall. On the other hand, the Terps are 4-10 ATS after suffering a spread setback and 0-4 versus the number against conference foes. Lay the home chalk in this one.
3* MIAMI HURRICANES
Dave Price
1 Unit on OKC Thunder +5.5
The Jazz have not been nearly as good on the road this season as they have been at home. We'll take the Thunder in the home dog role as this covering machine continues to get very little respect. First off, the Jazz are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Thunder are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Jazz are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Pistons -1.5
I look for the Pistons to be pissed off over last night's loss to the Bobcats. Detroit already has a pair of home wins over the Pacers this season and I would be looking to fade the Pistons here had they not gone down last night because of that. Indiana has lost 8 of its last 11 and has dropped 8 of 10 to Detroit the last 3 seasons. The Pistons are 13-5-2 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Indiana and an outstanding 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. Meanwhile, the Pacers are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take Detroit .
Stephen Nover
Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks
PICK: Over
For the first time in 30 games we find a total on the New York Knicks that is under 200.
Oddsmakers tend to react when a team goes 'under' the total seven straight times like the Knicks have.
Oddsmakers have been slow to catch on to what opponents of the Knicks now realize - that New York's offense is just one-dimensional. The Knicks can only play a run-and-gun style. Talented defenses can stop an offense that lacks options.
In this matchup, though, the oddsmaker has overcompensated too much setting up an 'over' the total play.
New York is going to gets its points. The Knicks are averaging 102.8 points, sixth-highest in the NBA. Washington ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage, allowing foes to connect on 47.5 percent of their shots.
The Knicks have averaged 118 points in their two games this season versus Washington. The last five games in the series have gone 'over.'
The Wizards are going to get their share of points, too. They are averaging 112.5 points against the Knicks this season. New York ranks 28th in scoring defense, yielding 106.3 points per game. The Knicks' defensive field goal percentage is even more generous than Washington's. The Knicks rank 29th in the category, allowing foes to make 47.7 percent of their shots from the floor.
The Wizards have two top scoring threats, Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison. Injuries have opened the door for a pair of young guards, Nick Young and Javaris Crittenton. They've been playing well lately with Young shooting close to 70 percent from the field in his last three games. Both could have strong games against the Knicks' loose defense.
If the total doesn't go higher than the opening number, it would be the lowest 'over/under' the Knicks have had all season.
The oddsmaker has overreacted setting this total too low and making me involved for a one-unit play.
Ted Sevransky
Houston @ UTEP
PICK: UTEP
Under Tom Penders, the Houston Cougars are all about running and gunning, pushing the pace and scoring at will against poor defensive foes. But the Cougars have a very, very sharp home/road dichotomy when it comes to shooting the basketball, not atypical for a team that lost four of their five starters from last year’s 24 win team, relying heavily on youth here in 2009.
The numbers don’t lie. Houston has played three previous road games, against Middle Tennessee, Toledo and Mississippi State. They struggled offensively in all three ballgames, scoring ten points per game less than their season average while shooting a woeful 37% from the floor in those contests. That’s very bad news against a UTEP squad that has been stellar on the defensive end of the court, both from inside and outside the arc.
There are two central questions for any team when they face Houston. First, can they handle the basketball against the Cougars pressure. Second, are they strong enough in the paint to prevent easy drive and dish opportunities while dominating the glass. The answers here are ‘yes’ and ‘yes’. The Miners are loaded with frontcourt size and depth, and at home, they’ve got an very strong1.45 assist-to-turnover ratio, which bodes well for their chances as a short home favorite tonight. (#796) 2* Take UTEP.
Larry Ness
George Mason @ William & Mary
PICK: George Mason
William and Mary head coach Tony Shaver won 23 games in his first three seasons at Williamsburg but then won 15 two years ago. Last year, the Tribe made an improbable run to the CAA tourney championship game, winning three games before falling to George Mason (finished 17-16). Expectations were higher this year but the Tribe will enter this game 6-9 overall and 1-4 in CAA play. The lone win is over NC-Wilmington, the league's worst team and the four losees have come by 15, 16, 12 and nine points (three have come at home!). The 6-9 Summer (15.9-4.7) and guard Schneider (14.1-3.1 APG) are the only players of note, which spells bad news vs a 'deep' George Mason team. Jim Larranaga is in his 12th year at GMU and no one will likely forget his team's Final 4 run a few years back. GMU was back in the "Big Dance" again LY, ending the season with 23 wins and another CAA tourney title (over William & Mary). While All-CAA performers Campbell and Thomas are gone, seven players have participated in all 15 games for the Patriots this season, as they've opened 12-3 overall and 5-0 in CAA play. Guards Long (11.7-4.3-3.5) and Vaughan (11.1-3.9-2.1) are the team's leading scorers while the 6-7 Monroe (10.6-8.9), who missed all of LY with an injury, has returned healthy to be the team's leading rebounder and best inside player this year. GMU is a much deeper team and plays excellent defense, which will allow them to hand William and Mary another double-digit loss. Lay the points
maddux sports
Today's Free Pick is Michigan +7.5
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