King Creole
James Madison -9.5 vs Towson
Based on certain conditions, this SYSTEM has YET to lose so far in 2008/09. And with TWO qualifiers on Wednesday, we'll reveal the details!
It's THAT time of the season in College Basketball. Most call it "IN-season REVENGE". In our Playbook College database, it's called "SSR1" (same-season Revenge). Either way, here's the simple but revealing parameters:
5-0 ATS so far in 2008/2009 for ALL Conference HOME team playing with same-season REVENGE. And your two qualifiers on Wednesday night in this System which has yet to lose are JAMES MADISON (over Towson).... and SOUTHWEST MISSOURI STATE (over Drake).
Chris Jordan
Northwestern at MICHIGAN STATE -12'
Northwestern almost beat Purdue and knocked off Minnesota last week. A pair of nationally ranked conference foes, and now it’s time for the Wildcats to suffer a bit of a letdown. Or, in my world, what’s better known as a beat down.
Purely betting numbers for this free play, as the Wildcats are mired in ATS skids of 8-21 on Wednesday nights, 1-5 when visiting teams with a winning home mark and 2-5 overall. On the other hand, Michigan State storms into this one having covered six of seven after an ATS loss, 4-1 when hosting teams with a losing road record and 6-2 against teams with a winning mark on the floor.
Looking inside the series numbers, the favorite has covered seven of nine contests, while the Spartans are 7-2 ATS the last nine battles overall.
3* MICHIGAN STATE
Drew Gordon
Memphis at CHARLOTTE -6
While these two teams get lumped together in the "bottom tier" of the NBA, make no mistake, the Bobcats are a team on the rise, while the Grizzlies remain a doormat, especially on the road.
Memphis is just 2-15 SU & 5-12 ATS away this season, burning their backers time and time again! They've lost 6 in a row SUATS, and a road game against a team that clobbered them by 29 points the last time out (in Memphis) is the last thing they need!
That's right, the last time these two played, the Bobcats dominated the Griz, Okafor and Wallace owned the Memphis frontcourt (Charlotte had 70 points in the paint as a team), and it was never close. Now you want a sputtering Griz squad to get it done in the Bobcats house?! Note, for a losing team, Charlotte is a realitvely solid 11-13 SU and a decent 13-11 ATS at home this season.
Finally, I don't see much changing from their last meeting, besides the fact that Raja Bell is now much more accustomed to his team (25 points against Spurs), and playing well. Also, factor in a razor close loss to San Antonio Monday, and I expect the Charlotte to be highly motivated here - Bobcats protect their house, grabbing the cash with relative ease!
Take Charlotte over Memphis in this NBA match up.
3* CHARLOTTE
Wisconsin -3 at IOWA
As someone who's followed the Badgers for some time now, I know laying points on the highway isn't easy, but in this particular case, its the right move and here's why:
Fact is Iowa is playing like garbage right now, having lost 4 of their last 5 SU and 4 straight ATS! Their only SU win over that 5-game span came against Indiana, and they squeeked by 65-60 in a game that was very close. While the Badgers aren't exactly playing great either, they have proven far more conistent than Iowa, and should be highly motivated coming off their home loss to the Minnesota.
Iowa's problems begin with offense, averaging just 56 ppg on 42% shooting over their last 5 games. They've been incredibly inconsistent, and the fact Cyrus Tate is still out, only hurts them that much more. He was their best bigman, and you can expect the Badgers "bigs" to pound the ball inside. Note, C David Palmer played well at Purdue, but let's not get too carried away, as he faces another tough test tonight.
Finally, we've also seen the Hawkeye's intensity wane on the defensive end, allowing 63 ppg on nearly 44% shooting over their last 5. Now granted, 3 of those 5 games were on the road, but nonetheless, this Hawkeyes team doesn't win when they don't play defense. Wisconsin is very methodical, and with Tate out, they'll have their inside/out game working to perfection.
Bottom line, Wisconsin kicks this Iowa team while its down, as the Hawkeyes are playing piss-poor basketball, and draw a Wisconsin team desperate for a win after dropping 2 straight. That loss at home to Minnesota was tough, and I expect the Badgers to come out fired up for this one.
Small play on Wisconsin over Iowa in this college hoops match up.
1* WISCONSIN
LT Profits
Duquesne +6.5
The Duquesne Dukes have quietly become one of the better shooting teams in the country, and they get the call as decided underdogs when the visit the St. Josephs Hawks tonight.
The Dukes are averaging 79.0 points per game this season while going 12-5 straight up, and that scoring average actually rises to 80.7 points on the road, where they are a good 5-2 straight up. Duquesne is hitting 47.0 percent of their shots this season, but that does not tell the entire story.
You see, the Dukes are hitting on an amazing 55.0 percent of their two-point attempts this year, which ranks them number 15 in the entire country in that category. They are also a good offensive rebounding team, so even when they have missed, they have still made up for it with many second-chance points that have improved their scoring average.
This makes for a terrible matchup for a Hawks team that allows offensive rebounds on an unacceptable 37.5 percent of opponents shots, ranking them 299 in that category. St. Joes is just a modest 9-7 straight up this season, and their hone record of 4-3 is actually worse than the road record of the Dukes.
Now the Hawks are on a 4-0 run both straight up and against the spread, but they have not faced a team as talented as Duquesne during this stretch, and they were fortunate to cover vs. NC Charlotte in their last game as they did not cover the entire game until the closing seconds.
Look for the Dukes to keep this close and possibly win outright.
Pick: Duquesne +6.5
Wunderdog
Anaheim at New York Islanders
Pick: UNDER 5.5The Anaheim Ducks have not been a scoring machine on the road this season where they have played break-even hockey. The last 14 games show them posting just 37 goals for an average of just 2.6 per contest. Right now, and for much of the season, the Islanders' offense has been a joke. They have not scored more than a single goal in each of the last four games. Despite the lack of offense, they have gotten some sound goaltending allowing just nine goals, or 2.25 a game. The Ducks are playing on consecutive nights here, where they have played UNDER to a 70-33-11 mark in their last 114! Enough said, I like the UNDER here.
Phoenix at New York
Pick: New York +6
The Knicks might find a comfort zone here against a Phoenix team that still likes to get up-and-down the court. The Knicks stayed close enough at Phoenix to cover, and interestingly enough, this line is only 2.5 points lower. The Knicks played the other race-horse team - Golden State at home and won a high-scoring affair by 13 points. The Suns may be winning some games, but are a bad bet as they are just 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31. The have fallen short by trying to take down inflated lines with their high-flying offense. The Knicks are thriving as a 5-10.5 point dog, taking down the number in eight of their last nine and are the valued side here. I'm on the Knicks tonight.
David Malinsky
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat
PICK: Miami Heat
One of the more intriguing quotes of this NBA season came from an unlikely source, Charlotte rookie point guard D. J. Augustin, after the Bobcats had upset the Celtics in overtime back on January 6th - "They come in and intimidate you and try to punk you. But if you don't back down from them, they kind of fold." There is some real merit to it – for as dominating as they were LY this is still a team with a lot of years under their belts, and if you can withstand their opening salvo, and have the moxie to compete, you can be in the game. As such, we are not sure the recent Boston “turnaround” in winning five straight means quite what the markets are making it to in tonight’s line. Four of those five games were home-and-away affairs against division foes New Jersey and Toronto that lacked the swagger and talent to compete. It is a different story tonight, and a Celtic team that is just 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS on the road outside the division since Thanksgiving will have their hands full.
While upgrading Boston for a recent run that may not have necessarily meant all that much, the markets have also failed to appreciate just how well Miami is playing. The Heat survived an arduous Western swing to go 4-3 and 5-2 ATS, and now get the benefit of having had a home practice yesterday for the first time in two full weeks. They are on a 10-6 SU run in their last 16 games, and note just how good it has been – they beat the Lakers and Cavaliers, who are #2 and #3 in the NBA in win percentage, in that span, and the losses came to those same two teams (including a tough 108-105 defeat at Los Angeles that went to the final minute), the Spurs (who were playing with a revenge motive) on this court, and the Magic, Rockets and Nuggets on the road. Every one of those teams is at least 10 games over .500 entering tonight.
There was some timing involved in the run. It can after a three-game losing streak in which they played their worst basketball of the season, and also at a time when they had three full days off at home, a chance to not only do some soul searching, but for Erik Spoelstra and his team to get on the same page. They did, and since then it has been playoff-caliber basketball. Now they are back at home with a chance to make a major statement, meanwhile catching Boston with a potentially distracted focus, with the Celtics having that showdown in Orlando tomorrow. A few days off has allowed Shawn Marion’s groin to heal, which puts him back in the starting lineup, and note that the trade rumors have done nothing to impact his game, nor that of the Heat – he has had double-doubles in each of his last three starts, and according to Dwane Wade - ”It hasn’t affected this team. He’s actually performed better of late.” We put the home team in this one right to the final possession against a visitor that is hard pressed to break anything open when a journeyman like Brian Scalabrine is not only having to start at C, but play major minutes.
Larry Ness
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest
PICK: Virginia Tech
Wake is CBB's lone remaining unbeaten and in the latest AP poll, received 68 of the 72 first-place votes. Wake's the AP's No. 1 team for the first time since Nov 2004, when that Chris Paul-led team claimed the top spot for two weeks. Can the Demon Deacons really keep up their current pace? The 16-0 start marks the best start in school history and since just Jan 3, the Demon Deacons have ended BYU's 53-game home winning streak, beat third-ranked North Carolina, routed Boston College by 20 points on the road (in what assumed to be a "let down" spot) and ended No. 10 Clemson's undefeated season with a 78-68 road victory this past Saturday. Last year's star freshman, guard Teague (21.4-4.0-4.1) and the 6-8 Johnson (13.4-8.0) are TY's sophomore leaders. Teague is joined by Williams (9.0), Hale (6.1) and Smith (3.1-2.9-3.0) in the backcourt, while Johnson is teamed with the 6-9 Aminu (13.4-8.0) and the 7-0 McFarland (10.5-7.1) inside. Tech comes in having won SEVEN of their last eight games (12-5 overall mark), losing only at Duke (shot 36.7 percent, including 1-of-9 on threes). The Hokies don't have anywhere near Wake's depth but in the 6-6 Vassallo (17.9-6.5-3.0), PG Delaney (16.7-4.2-3.9) and the 6-7 Allen (13.8-8.9), they do own three terrific players. Wake, which averages 85.1 PPG (5th) and shoots 51.1 percent as a team (ranks 3rd), would surely win a best-of-seven series but this is just one game. Wake's handled "everything that's come its way" this year but laying two TDs to a talented team like Va Tech, a couple of days after claiming the No. 1 ranking, seems like a "tough nut to crack," to me. Tech lost in Winston-Salem last year only 77-75 (on a buzzer-beater) and back in Blacksburg, routed Wake, 80-58. I realize that Wake is a better team TY but I'm still going to take those big points with the Hokies.
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Wake Forest -13.5
2 Units - Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Northern Iowa -6
UNI is on fire and we will continue to ride the Panthers tonight. UNI has won 6 in a row SU and ATS entering this game at home where it is 7-2 on the season. Bradley is 19-36 ATS in road games after playing a road game since 1997. The Braves came back down to earth with a loss at SIU in their last game and will have a tough time bouncing back against the hottest team in the Valley. Lay the points.
Dwayne Bryant
Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +1.5
I like the Bucks in this spot. They're coming home after two horrible road losses at the Clippers (by 9) and Portland (by 17). The Bucks are a different team at home where they are 11-7, as opposed to 9-17 on the road. They've also had success in this series at home, going a PERFECT 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Milwaukee. The Bucks are also 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. Southwest Division foes, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss, and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss.
Dallas is coming off a narrow two-point win at Philadelphia. Prior to that, the Mavs had lost four straight on the road, including a 7-point loss at Sacramento, a 28-point loss at Phoenix, and a 20-point loss at Memphis. Dallas is also 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less, 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. Central Division foes, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. With a road win already in their pocket on this four-game trip, the Mavs could be caught looking ahead to their next two games on this road trip, which happen to be against "bigger fish" (Detroit and Boston).
Take the Milwaukee Bucks +1.5
Johnny Guild
New Jersey Nets at New Orleans Hornets
New Orleans Hornets will likely be without Tyson Chandler and David West again tonight, hopefully point guard Chris Paul will have another good night when they square off against the New Jersey Nets.
New Orleans is 1-4 in the last 5 clashes versus New Jersey at home, going 1-3-1 ATS, but the Nets top starters Vince Carter and Devin Harris have been struggling. New Jersey has lost three straight games and its last four on the road. Take New Orleans at home. The Hornets have won ten of its last 12 home games and have won three of the last four clashes against the Nets, including a 107-96 victory at New Orleans Arena in the last meeting on March 7.
New Orleans Hornets -5
GINA
Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Bobcats
The sad Grizzlies have dropped six straight games and 10 of its last 11. Meanwhile, the struggling Bobcats have won five of their last nine, an improvement. Both have played insufficiently, but Memphis has collapse, playing dreadful on both sides of the ball. Go with the Bobcats at home. The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games.
Charlotte Bobcats -6
Mr A
Detroit Pistons -5½
Boston Celtics -5½
Dallas Mavericks -1½
Los Angeles Lakers -16
Complimentary Selection - Jeff Benton
Terrible call with Evansville last night. I've definitely hit a bit of a rough patch with the free plays, but I'm still on an 18-9 run with my complimentary plays in College Hoops, and I'll try to make it 19-9 tonight by backing Oklahoma over Nebraska.
I’m still not sure how good the sixth-ranked Sooners are, but I do know they’re markedly better than Nebraska, which simply cannot put the ball in the hoop when it goes on the road. The Cornhuskers have played four games outside of Lincoln and they’ve lost three, scoring 62, 44, 63 and 53 points in those four contests. That’s barely 55 ppg. Well, tonight, they run up against Oklahoma and its beast in the middle, Blake Griffin, who are holding visitors to the Noble Center to just 62.6 ppg on 35.7 percent shooting. At the same time, the Sooners average 83.1 points on 48.4 percent shooting on their home floor.
The last time Oklahoma on its own court, it obliterated Texas 78-63 as a 4½-point favorite, making 27 of 53 shots (51 percent) and holding the 11th-ranked Longhorns to 23-for-68 shooting (33.8 percent). If the Sooners can dominate a legitimate Top 15 team like Texas, they can surely take care of business against Nebraska, which lost its first Big 12 road game at Iowa State 65-53 and also lost at Arizona State 64-44 as a 10-point underdog in its only game against a ranked team.
Oklahoma has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, including four straight in Norman, the last being a 70-53 rout in 2007. In fact, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four regular-season meetings.
Throw in the fact that Oklahoma is riding a five-game winning streak, including 3-0 SU and ATS so far in Big 12 play, and with no look-ahead game for the Sooners, and this one’s a no-brainer. Lay the chalk.
(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)
4♦ OKLAHOMA
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Today's Free Pick
maddux sports
Today's Free Pick is Washington +3
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Charlies Sports - Free Pick
nba.nets+6 @ hornets. Thanks to the play of point guard Chris Paul in the
team’s last game, a banged-up frontcourt didn’t keep the New Orleans
Hornets from notching their first back-to-back wins of the month.The Hornets
could use another strong outing from Paul with David West and Tyson
Chandler expected to be sidelined at least one more game, as the New
Jersey Nets come to town tonight, nets cover+6.
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Free Winners for Wednesday, January 21, 2009
FREE NBA BASKETBALL PICKS
Boston @ Miami
Time: 7:35 PM EST
Pick: Boston -5.5
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1/21/09
Utah @ Houston
Prediction: Utah +3.5
Time: 8:35 PM EST
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