TOM SCOTT'S SIX STAR BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR!
OKLAHOMA over West Virginia by 19
I won't bore you with all the numbers that apply to Oklahoma in this game, there are too many to list. Suffice it to say that the Sooners have been waiting for this game since taking the biggest tumble of any bowl team last season. After that Statue-of-Liberty play sealed Boise State's win over the Sooners, they, to a man, vowed to be back in a BCS game and to leave no doubt as to who was the best team in that game. They probably would have out-muscled the Mountaineers anyway, but they got some unexpected help from Michigan, who pilfered the astute WVU coach Rich Rodriguez, a brilliant game coach, away before he could get to this bowl game. West Virginia hasn't seen a defense as fast or as strong as Oklahoma's all season. With the Sooner intensity as the highest level and with the Mountaineer confidence at rock bottom after that devastating home loss to Pittsburgh, Oklahoma takes command early and runs away with the Fiesta Bowl trophy.
PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA 36 - West Virginia 17
Rocketman
Bowls - Okl
NBA - Cavs
CBB - U Mass
NHL - Stars - Over
POINTWISE
OKLAHOMA (11-2) vs WEST VIRGINIA (10-2)
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Oklahoma ... 42.0 .. 43-18 .. 19-14 .. 192- 92 ... 260-232.. + 9 . Oklahoma
W Virginia .. 41.4 .. 39-17 .. 21-18 .. 293-111 .. 158-184.. +12 . by 7.8 Pts
ANALYSIS
So now what? The Mountaineers of West Virginia were apparently assured of
a spot in the BCS title game, following their 66-21 destruction of Connecticut,
which decided the Big East title, & in the process, moved them to the #2 spot
in the nation. Then the unthinkable: a 13-9 home loss to 28½ pt underdog, &
then 4-7 Pittsburgh. Sure, WV's brilliant QB White went out in the 2nd quarter
with a dislocated thumb, & no doubt the Mounties would have prevailed on the
field, if he was in for the duration, but their vaunted overland game was hardly
in gear, even before he went out. He averaged 6.7 ypr for the season, but was
at only 2.9 (11-41) at the time. Before that one, pure dynamite, as has been
the case at Morgantown for the past 3 years. Coupled with Slaton, they have
combined for 5,201 yds & 65 TDs rushing the past 2 years. Not only that, but
White also ranks 14th in the nation in passing (68%, 1,548 yds, 12 TDs, & 4
picks). A near unstoppable machine, averaging 39.3 ppg in the Mounties last
29 tilts. But, not only is White hurting, but bye-bye to the brilliance of coach
Rich Rodriguez, who has followed in the footsteps of WVa hoop coach John
Beilein, both heading to Michigan. Can the Mounties get it back in gear for an
Oklahoma Sooner "D" which has allowed >98 RYs to just 4 teams, this year,
including bowl teams Tulsa, Texas, Missouri, Texas Tech, Okla St, Missouri
with 1.2, 2.1, 1.9, 3,1, 3.1 ypr, respectively? The Okies are led by QB Bradford,
who ranks #1 in the land in passing (70%, 2,879 yds, 34 TDs, & just 7 INTs).
The Sooners have had to live with '06 Fiesta loss to Boise for more than a
year, so incentive is hardly lacking. Rodriguez? White? Too many questions.
PROPHECY: OKLAHOMA 33 - West Virginia 23 RATING: 6
WINNING POINTS
FIESTA BOWL
OKLAHOMA over WEST VIRGINA by 1
It was not surprising to see this line jump a little when it was announced that Rich
Rodriguez would be heading for Michigan. But we are not certain that it is all that
much of a negative factor and that makes this one most intriguing for us, largely
because we thought that the original line was off in the first place. The bottom line
is that Oklahoma had a magical moment in upsetting Florida State in the 2000
national championship game, but the Sooners have not been able to maintain that
level on the field, despite their reputation remaining high. They have lost outright
as a favorite the last two times they have been favored in a bowl game, and were
also out-classed by Southern Cal three years ago with the title on the line again. We
are not sure there is any gap at all between these teams, outside of coaching stability
issues. The Big 12 was weak this season and the Oklahoma non-conference
schedule was even weaker, with the bottom line being a total of just two road games
all season against bowl teams. Those were trips to Colorado and Texas Tech, and
the Sooners lost each time. Now they face the awkward matchup of dealing with
the speed of Pat White, Steve Slaton, Noel Devine and Darius Reynard at the West
Virginia skill positions, and also those complex offensive schemes that will not
change because of the Rodriguez departure. The Oklahoma defense did not face an
attack with either that level of talent nor the designs during the regular season, and
there is no way to emulate the speed of White until you actually get on the field.
Meanwhile the Mountaineer defense finished 4th in the nation in yards allowed
and 7th in points, but never really got their due. Toss-up. OKLAHOMA 28-27.
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
FIESTA BOWL
(West Virginia) BIG EAST Bowlers 13-5 ATS as dog pts / 6-10 ATS fav w/ rest
THE GOLD SHEET
FIESTA BOWL
WEST VIRGINIA (10-2) vs. OKLAHOMA (11-2)
Wednesday, January 2 Night at Glendale, AZ (Grass Field)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
W.Virginia12 10-2 7-4 39 17 293 158 62-45-14 108 184 26-12-13+12 5.3 12.8
Oklahoma 13 11-2 7-6 43 18 192 259 77-33-37 92 232 28-13-15 +9 7.4 13.4
Oklahoma 41 - West Virginia 27—It was a December to forget in
Morgantown. On the first day of the month, the Mountaineers—then ranked
No. 2 and just one win away from a spot in the BCS title game—were
shocked (as 28½-point home favorite!) by rival Pittsburgh, 13-9. Perhaps
more discouraging, players learned a few weeks later that head coach Rich
Rodriguez, who had steadily steered the West Virginia program to national
prominence in his 7 seasons at the helm, was bolting to become Michigan’s
new mentor. (At TGS press time, longtime assistant Bill Stewart, who is not
considered a top candidate to permanently replace Rodriguez, was serving
as interim HC, and both o.c. Calvin Magee, who will also be moving to Ann
Arbor, & d.c. Jeff Casteel planned to remain through the bowl game).
Oklahoma enters with a little more swagger, having knocked off then topranked
Missouri in the Big XII title game. And Norman scouts say the proud
Sooners are looking at their return to Glendale as a chance to erase the
haunting memory of being shanghaied by underdog Boise State on this
same field a year ago.
Potential psychological edge aside, Oklahoma has some solid
fundamental advantages as well. Many (most?) defenses simply aren’t fast
enough to keep up with the Mountaineers’ run-oriented spread offense.
However, the speed & depth of the Sooner stop unit will help keep big
gainers from WV stars QB Pat White & RB Steve Slaton to a minimum. In
fact, it’s the better-balanced Oklahoma attack that figures to do the majority
of the damage in this game. While White remains a suspect down-field
passer, Sooner RS frosh Sam Bradford (70%, 34 TDP, only 7 ints.) throws
with confidence behind an OL that allowed only 11 sacks. The physical
Oklahoma receivers rate a MAJOR edge over their Mountaineer
counterparts, and Bradford is supported by a productive rushing attack.
Injured RS frosh RB DeMarco Murray (764 YR & 13 TDs) won’t be available,
but sr. Allen Patrick & soph Chris Brown (combined 1488 YR on 5 ypc) are
proven performers. Plus, although OU drives rarely fall short of end zone,
sr. PK Garrett Hartley (converted 29 of 32 FG attempts last 2 years) rarely
misses when they do.
(DNP...SR: Oklahoma 2-1)
THE MAX
Fiesta Bowl @Glendale, Arizona
January 2, 2008, 8:30 PM EST
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma
Opening Line: Oklahoma –6, 65
Current Line: Oklahoma –7½, 63½
Analysis by Erik Scheponik
I write this the day that West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez has accepted theMichigan job, so obviously there is a lot of unknowns here. Of all the possibly disinterested bowl teams we’ll talk about in this issue, the Mountaineers rate the KINGS. All they had to do was win as a 4 TD favorite against Pitt at home in the season finale,and they had a date with Ohio St. for all the Marbles in the BCS Championship. They blew it in grand fashion, losing 13-9, their high-powered offense accounting for only 183 yards, 130 less than any other game the last two seasons. Now they must attempt to circle the wagons and beat one of the nation’s very best programs knowing that their coach has just left them for seemingly greener pastures? No small feat indeed. There is some historical support for WVU here, as bowl dogs that were favored by 13.5 or more in their last game are 20-7 ATS, and bowl dogs off of a SU favorite loss are 45-26-1 ATS. However, they have a very big emotional mountain to climb here. Oh yeah, their opponent isn’t chopped liver, either The Oklahoma Sooners return to the scene of their historical loss to Boise St. last January. The Sooners have played a tougher schedule than has WVU, and they have the defensive speed to match up with and a month to prepare for the WVU spread offense.They handed a good Missouri team their only two losses of the season, both by double digits, and Bob Stoops is an excellent big game coach, as he’s posted an 11-6 record against top 10 rated teams.They allow only 2.8 yards per rush, and their defense runs and tackles with the best of them, two key qualities when facing West Virginia’s speed option. On offense, Sam Bradford is one of the better QB’s you’ll ever see, and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal behind one of the nation’s best offensive lines. The special teams, as usual, are excellent under Stoops, as PK Garrett Hartley has made 29 out of 32 FG’s Check the status of Oklahoma CB/KR Reggie Smith, as he broke his toe against Missouri.This line jumped a point Sunday after the Rodriguez news. I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up on the other side of 8. Bob Stoops rates a solid edge in preparation against most opponents, let alone ateam without a coach. Need to monitor the news from WVU camp over the next couple of weeks, and will weigh those factors against final price, but for now I’ll side with the chalk. Oklahoma by 13
WILD BILL
Over 64 1/2 Oklahoma-WV (1 unit) WV defense needs to step up, however both clubs can run and pass
VSSWINS 7% COLLEGE BOWL MISMATCH GAME OF THE YEAR
7% OKLAHOMA SOONERS -6/-125 over West Virginia Mounatineers
TOM SCOTT'S SUPER DOG PLAY!
Southern Illinois at DRAKE - 8:00 PM EST
Play ON: #769 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS plus the points
I'm not that hard to figure out when it comes to picking basketball games. Give me an underdog who has dominated the series every time. Such is the case with the Salukis tonight. The Egyptian Dogs have beaten Drake 32 times in the last 36 meetings and were favored in 34 of those 36 games. (SIU was +1 and +2 in the other two games, never +4!) Although Southern Illinois has had considerable trouble getting up an over the number as a favorite, the Carbondale Kids shine as underdogs posting a 32-13 ATS mark in that role since the 2001 season started. Included in that 32-13 mark is a 26-9 ATS log when coming off a win, a 20-4 record when the opponent is off a SUATS win and a perfect 9-0 to the number when the enemy is off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. All of those trends apply here. It's the old DDDIAAA theory here. Dominating Dogs Do It Again And Again.
PREDICTION: SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 74 - Drake 67
Consensus 900 Picks
Consensus 900 - Greg's Top Picks
5* Bowl Game Of The Year - Oklahoma - 7
Red Zone Sports
CBB Wisconsin Badgers
187 Sports - Ryan Nova
NBA
1* New Orleans Hornets
NHL
1*Florida Panthers
CFB
3* Oklahoma Sooners
Brandon Lovell
10* NCAAF Oklahoma -4 First Half
ATS LOCK
3 Oklahoma - 7 1/2
Hoops
5 North Eastern -2
3 Drake -4
3 Orlando Magic -6
ATS FINANCIAL
3 Over 62 1/2 Ok
Hoops
3 S Florida -11 1/2
3 Dayton -6 1/2
3 Portland Trail Blazers -5
AAA
NBA: Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Bobcats - Bulls Pick -110 | Unit Value: 2
Note: I am not a big proponent of betting bad NBA teams and I am not even close to doing that when they play on the road. But there is reason to believe that the Bulls are no longer in that category. This team is loaded with talent and has been the biggest mystery in the NBA this year. But that is all changing now with the new interim head coach Jim Boylan, who has won his first two of three games, and coming off a close cover last game verses a very good Orlando squad. Boylan's most significant move since taking over the team has been to start bringing Gordon off the bench. Gordon, the NBA Sixth Man of the Year as a rookie in 2004-05, started the first 26 games of the season and was averaging 17.6 points while shooting 38.9 percent from the field. He averaged 21.4 points and shot 45.5 percent last season. In three games in a reserve role under Boylan, Gordon has averaged 31.7 points and shot 56.5 percent, including 8-of-15 from 3-point range. He scored a season-high 39 points in Monday's defeat. The Bulls have scored in triple digits in each of Boylan's first three games, they did that just 6 times through their first 26 games. Boylan's laid back way of coaching has given this team peace and they are responding to it. Tonight they play a team that they have handled easily and will try for their 4th straight win over the Bobcats. The Cats are just not that good, having covered just 4 times over their last 16 tries. They are coming off a big win at home last time on the court against a below average Indiana Pacer team. The Pacers do not play D and the Bobcats do not do so well against the better D's of the league. While Chicago's numbers don't put them in that category, they are stepping it up now and they are very capable at doing so. Charlotte is not a good rebounding team and when they are shooting well, they don't win. The Bulls are bigger and more aggressive than Charlotte and especially now, as finally this team is having some fun. Oddsmakers are going to have to re-adjust their thinking about this Bulls Team, but until they do, they will be a look-at squad for me. In my best estimation, this is a bargain line and available at some books at +1.
Scott Spreitzer
3* is on N. Iowa-12 pts
Accupicks 4* is on Creighton -3
PPP/ Gavozzi
Foots-1*Oklahoma
Hoops--3*VCU--4*St Johns--3*Wisconsin--3*Duquesne--4*MidTenn St.
NBA--3*Detroit--3*NOrleans
INDIAN COWBOY
N.O. Hornets -4.5 normal
Kansas/VA Tech u 53 normal
WAYNE ROOT
Chairman - Indiana St
Millionaire - U Mass
Money Maker - W. Virginia (foots)
Lockoftheday
Today's Lock: West Virginia +4.5 (1st Half)
Seven straight wins for us; make no mistake, this is the best time of the year for betting on sports. We like West Virginia tonight in the Fiesta Bowl. We get the best value by betting the 1st half where West Virginia is still getting +4.5 points. 14-10 we win! 21-17 we win! West Virginia's spread attack is so difficult to stop. Pat White is the fastest quarterback in football. Steve Slaton might be the fastest running back! The Mountaineers will score the football tonight and keep this game close.
GAMBLERSWORLD TIP OF THE DAY:
TIP OF THE DAY Sport: NHL Game: 7:00PM, Florida Panthers vs. New Jersey Devils
Prediction: New Jersey Devils Current Line: -175 Over/Under: 5
Reason: The Florida Panthers and the New Jersey Devils will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Prudential Center. Oddsmakers currently have the Devils listed as 175-moneyline favorites versus the Panthers, while the game's total is sitting at 5. The Panthers lost to Philadelphia 1-0 as a -145 favorite last time out. The one goal scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (5.5). Tomas Vokun stopped 19-of-20 shots for Florida in the loss. Zach Parise had a goal and an assist for the Devils in their 5-2 loss to the New York Islanders on Saturday night. The Isles won as -103 home underdogs as the game played over the 5-goal total listed by oddsmakers. Current streak: Florida has lost 2 straight games. Team records: Florida: 18-18-3 New Jersey: 21-14-3 Florida most recently: When playing on Wednesday are 4-6 Before playing NY Rangers are 6-4 After playing Philadelphia are 4-6 After a loss are 6-4 New Jersey most recently: When playing on Wednesday are 4-6 Before playing Buffalo are 9-1 After playing NY Islanders are 6-4 After a loss are 7-3 A few trends to consider: Florida is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Jersey Florida is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing New Jersey New Jersey is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Florida New Jersey is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home New Jersey is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Florida New Jersey is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games