Doc Sports NBA
Doc's Sports's Pick Pack
Matchup: Detroit at Washington
Play: Under (193-110)
These two teams have gone under in 17 of their last 20 games overall and this total has no business being in the 190s. Washington has been playing much better defense and the days of offensive shootouts seem to be gone, at least for now. The Wizards have not allowed an opponent over 100 since early December on their home court. It’s not hard to remember a day when EVERY opponent reached the century mark in Washington. The Pistons have the NBA’s No. 2 defense in both points scored and field goal percentage and they have been playing their best ball of the season in that regard as of late. Four of the last five meetings between these clubs have gone under the posted number.
Matchup: Houston at Boston
Time: 7:35 PM EDT (Wed)
Play: Under (180.5-110)
Five out of the last seven meetings between these clubs have gone under the posted number and we see another low scoring affair tonight as Boston has the league’s best defense and the Rockets are right up there among the top teams as well. The Celts are No. 1 defensively in PPG, FG% and 3-Pt. %. Houston is No. 6 in PPG defensively and No. 3 in defensive field goal %. Boston is playing ridiculous defense at home this season and allow just 82 PPG here. Nine out of the last 13 games here have gone under the total. We expect this to be another solid defensive effort by both and this one will wind up in the low-to-mid 170s.
Black Magic Sports Picks
NCAA Basketball:
5 Unit Black Magic MVC GOTY on Drake -4.5
The Drake Bulldogs are ready to show the world that they are the team to beat in the Missouri Valley Conference this year. A win tonight over Southern Illinois will prove that they are the real deal. The Salukis have made 6 consecutive tournament births. They are in jeopardy of having that streak end with a 6-6 record on the year. Drake is 10-1 on the season. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in all lined games this season. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. It will be a packed house at Drake tonight to support the Bulldogs as a small home favorite. This 14-0 System cannot be stopped Wednesday. Cash in with Drake as the favorite.
NCAA Football:
4 Unit Fiesta Bowl BEST BET on West Virginia +8
West Virginia has a healthy Pat White at QB heading into tonight’s Fiesta Bowl. White was a Heisman contender for a reason. His ability to run the spread offense is as good as any quarterback in the country. Oklahoma will have fits against this style of offense that they haven’t seen all year long. It’s the toughest offense to prepare for and WVU will exploit the Sooners’ over pursuit of the ball. Oklahoma is 14-33 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. They won’t be holding this WVU offense down Wednesday. The Sooners are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 January Bowl Games as well. Cash in with West Virginia as the underdog.
NBA:
3 Unit Sharp Play on Cleveland Cavaliers -5
Cleveland has to get their act together if they are going to make a run at the playoffs in the East. They cannot afford to lose this home game to the Hawks and they know it. Atlanta is one of the teams that Cleveland trails in the East standings and they will be giving max effort to knock ‘em off tonight. Cleveland is 9-1 ATS in home games after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Cavs are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss. They are great at bouncing back. Cash in with Cleveland as the favorite.
Atslocks
15 unit play on OKLAHOMA -7.5
11-2 all year IN COLLEGE on 15 unit plays, won yesterday with GA/HAW UNDER.
10 unit Dayton -7 vs Akron
Comp play Kent State +21 vs UNC
Rocketman Sports
3* Mich + 8 1/2
Play On: 3* Michigan +8.5
Wisconsin is scoring only 62 points per game on the road this year. Michigan is 6-2 SU at home vs Wisconsin since 1997. Home team is 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings in this series. Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. We'll play Michigan for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
ASA
5* Oklahoma
Maddux Sports
3* West Vir +8
Seabass:
20* W VA
Sports Investors
WV
Tulane
Atl/CL under
Vegas pipeline
DUQUESNE
DOC
4 Unit Play. #742 Take Michigan +8 over Wisconsin (7:00 pm Big Ten Network) The Badgers had a remarkable victory over Texas on Saturday, but game two without a healthy Trevon Hughes will eventually take its toll. Michigan has played a brutal schedule and has to learn a new system under Coach John Beilein, but is catching Bucky on a perfect letdown situation. Getting over a touchdown is too good of an opportunity to pass up.
4 Unit Play. #745 Take Creighton -3 over Indiana State (7:00 pm KMTV) The Blue Jays have a very rough shooting night when they suffered their first home loss of the season to Illinois State on Saturday. The Sycamores have just beaten up on bad teams this year and will be near the bottom of the MVC Standings come March. The Blue Jays get it done at both ends of the floor scoring near eight and allowing just over 60 and that will get it done tonight, as this team realizes the importance of this affair and does not want to drop to 0-2 in the standing.
4 Unit Play. #765 Take Bradley +8 ½ over Missouri State (8:00 pm) These are two evenly matched teams and that part of a MVC Conference that is just a glimmer of what it was in year’s past. Both teams have been trouble scoring and thus expect the scoring to be in the sixties giving a clear advantage to the underdog. The Braves have already won two games this season in true road environments and should be able to stay in this game and thus take it to the wire allowing us to collect.
Ferringo
5-Unit Play. Take #779 Penn State (+1.5) over Northwestern
This one was going to be my GOTW but I've backed up, perhaps foolishly, because I was expecting at least a little sharp money to push the line back to a Pick. Regardless, I still think this line is an outright mistake. It's a total overreaction to the return of Northwestern's leading scorer from '06-'07, Kevin Coble, who has only practiced twice and may not even see any serious action. The Lions are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and has won seven of their last 10 games against the Wildcats. Northwestern has won four straight, with three of the four wins coming against some of the worst teams in Div. I. This is also only Northwestern’s second game since Dec. 9. I’m looking for a lot of rust. On the flip side, Penn State has played four games since then and won them all by an average of 19 points. Penn State has struggled on the road this season but their four losses all came against teams that are competing for postseason berths – teams like St. Joe’s, Central Florida, and South Carolina. I think PSU is a much, much better team here and neither home court nor some emotion will be able to make up this talent disparity.
3-Unit Play. Take #772 New Orleans (-5) over Arkansas-Little Rock
Uh-oh. This one could get ugly. We have a much more talented and focused home team taking on an inferior conference opponent and I smell a double-digit win. New Orleans has beaten N.C. State, Tulane, and Colorado on the road and handled a better Arkansas State team than this A-LR club at home. Little Rock has dropped its last two – both on the road – and I think they are going to get smoked here. The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #749 Duquesne (-5.5) over Bowling Green
The Dukes are an overwhelming offensive force and I don’t think that Bowling Green will be able to hold up. The Falcons have lost to Northern Colorado and Western Carolina for chrissakes. Bowling Green faced a team that likes to try a similar style this year – Temple – and got hammered by 15 at home. I’m looking for a similar beating. The Dukes are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games and the Falcons are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. The Dukes haven’t lost to a team outside of the RPI Top 40. Bowling Green is No. 287. Duquesne’s last six wins have come over teams rated higher than BG and they have come by and average 17.1 points. There’s also a common opponent – Oakland – which Duquesne beat by 15 on the road and BG lost to by 10. Look, the line is off. Nothing more to say. Should be a beat down.
2-Unit Play. Take #742 Northeastern (-1.5) over Towson
Northeastern has won four of five over Towson and I think they bounce back from a tough second half against Syracuse to score a road win here. The Huskies are 17-5-1 ATS as a favorite and 4-1 ATS as a road chalk. I think they pick apart the more undisciplined Tigers here.
2.5-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #777 Indiana (-6) over Iowa
2-Unit Play. Take #777 Indiana (-10.5) over Iowa
I think this line should be about five points higher. The Hawkeyes are awful this year and I think that the Hoosiers are going to want to make a statement in their Big 10 opener. Indiana has beaten Illinois State, Southern Illinois, and Kentucky – three teams that are better than Iowa – by an average of 15 points. The Hoosiers haven’t covered in seven straight tries against Iowa but those were much, much less talented teams than this one. The road team is 10-4 ATS in the series and I think Indiana blows the doors open early.
Michael Cannon (12-3 College Bowl run)
Wednesday's Plays...
20 Dime –
OKLAHOMA
Lay the points with Oklahoma tonight over West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl.
This was going to be a tough spot for the Mountaineers anyway, now they have to find a way to focus their efforts on the field after coach Rich Rodriguez left to take the head job at Michigan.
Rodriguez’ departure caught the university by surprise, now the Mountaineers have to gear up under interim coach Bill Stewart.
You have to wonder if the focus would have been there even if Rodriguez didn’t bolt for Michigan.
All West Virginia had to do was beat mediocre Pitt at Morgantown in the regular season finale and they would have been playing for the National Championship. Instead, they lost, 13-9 as a 28-point chalk.
Oklahoma should have more focus for this game, as they want to atone for last year’s loss to Boise State on this same field. The Sooners would also like to show the world that they were just as deserving as Lsu to be playing for the championship.
Coach Bob Stoops has plenty of weapons at his disposal, namely redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Bradford, who threw for 2,879 yards and 34 TDs with only seven INTs.
The West Virginia defense had problems at times this year defending the run, and if they focus on shutting down Allen Patrick, Bradford can and will make them pay for it.
The Sooners defense has plenty of speed to hang with the Mountaineers spread-option, and since Rodriguez won’t be there to call the plays, Oklahoma should be able to keep Pat White and Steve Slaton under wraps.
There are too many distractions here for West Virginia to hang, and Oklahoma has the talent to pull away in this one.
Lay the points with the Sooners as they grab the win and cover tonight in the Fiesta Bowl.
5 Dime –
NETS
Take the points with the Nets tonight when they travel to take on the Magic.
There’s no question the Nets haven’t been the greatest team in the world this year, but they have a nice scheduling edge here tonight.
New Jersey has been idle for four days, while Orlando is playing its fourth game in six days.
Jason Kidd is still a premier point guard and Richard Jefferson is having an All-Star caliber season.
The Nets also have revenge motive for a 95-70 loss they suffered at home to the Magic in mid-November.
Take the points as New Jersey keeps it close.
GRIZZLIES
Take the points with the Grizzlies tonight against the Pacers.
The Pacers figure to be a tired bunch tonight, with this being their fifth game in seven days. The Grizzlies are the wrong team to match up against when there are tired legs involved.
Pau Gasol, Mike Miller and Rudy Gay are all quality scorers for Memphis and all can run the floor.
Indiana will be without guard Jamaal Tinsley who is out with a hamstring injury.
Take the points with Memphis as they keep this one within the number.
WISCONSIN
Lay the points with Wisconsin on the road tonight over Michigan.
The Badgers hit the floor for the first time since Saturday’s upset of Texas, and they shouldn’t have any problems keeping the momentum rolling tonight.
Michigan is in a major rebuilding mode and coach John Beilein will need a couple of seasons to get this team competitive. The Wolverines are on a 0-9 ATS skid since covering in their first lined game of the season back on November 11. They are 6-18-1 ATS going back to last season, including four consecutive non-covers at home.
Wisconsin has won and covered back-to-back road games.
Take the Badgers as they grab the double-digit win and cover.
Cal-Sports
5* S. Alabama
4* Pacific
3* Duq.
3* N. Mexico
Billy Coleman
5* Bulls
3* Cavs
3* Mavs
4* Creighton
3* N.C. Wilm.
MATT FARGO
West Virginia Mountaineers +7.5 -110
This one starts and ends with head coach Rich Rodriguez who bolted for Michigan following the regular season. Coached abandoning their program or being let go before bowl games has not panned out for those teams as they are 0-6 so far. While that trend may be tough to go against, the Mountaineers are in a bit of a different situation. The talent on this team makes up for it and while the players were livid when Rodriguez first left, they have made it heir mission to throw it back in his face here.
West Virginia had its ticket punched for the BCS Championship but a loss against Pittsburgh in the “Backyard Brawl” ended those dreams. How the Mountaineers recover from that loss will obviously be the most important factor here. That could come down to one player actually. As quarterback Patrick White goes, so goes West Virginia. He sat out most of the Pittsburgh game with a dislocated right thumb, which completely affected the offense. He is fine and will be ready to play here.
Oklahoma had a spectacular season and felt like it was snubbed for the BCS Championship so it will be playing with a chip on its shoulder for sure. However, the inexperience at quarterback is a huge issue and one that will give West Virginia a slight edge on defense. The Mountaineers finished 4th in the country in total defense so despite the potent offense of the Sooners, West Virginia is very capable of slowing them down. Rushing defense was 18th and passing defense was 12th so the balance is big as well.
The loss against Pittsburgh was devastating for West Virginia but it falls into a spectacular situation because of it. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being just -0.9 ppg. This includes a 14-2 ATS mark (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. We don’t need the win but we get the cover from this very generous line tonight. Play West Virginia Mountaineers 2.5 Units
Ness' Fiesta Bowl Shootout (10-1 or 91% ATS run in FB since Saturday!)
My 15* is on Oklahoma at 8:00 ET. These are two the nation's most explosive teams but the Sooners are by FAR the more balanced. Twice this year, first against an excellent USF team and then against a very mediocre Pitt team, we've seen QB Pat White go down to an injury and EACH time the West Va offense has been rendered helpless. Now White is expected to be OK here and I can't "assume or predict" another injury but the Okla defense has the speed to match up with the Mountaineers. There is also the case of "the Suddenly Disappearing Slaton" to explain. RB Steve Slaton has topped 100 yards just ONCE in his last FIVE games, averaging just 60.2 YPG during that span (4.0 YPC), including a PATHETIC 9-for-11 performance in the Pitt loss. Oklahoma can make a solid case for being the nation's best team. It's two hiccups came in a uncharacteristic meltdown at Colorado (led 24-7 in the late third quarter in a 27-24 loss) plus a loss to Texas Tech in which QB Bradford was lost after just three passes! Let's remember, this team beat an outstanding Missouri team not once but TWICE, 41-31 and 38-17! Bradford led the nation with a QB rating of 180.5, completing 70.1% with a 34-7 ratio. The OL (biggest in team history!) paved the way for 192 YPG (4.7 per) on the ground while allowing just 11 sacks. The Oklahoma rush D allows just 91.9 YPG (2.8) and its pass D had 32 sacks and 19 INTs and plenty of athletes to match up with the WVA skill people. Then there is the Rich Rodriquez factor (he left for the Michigan), as all previous six teams this bowl season playing without the head coach which led them to the bowl bid, have LOST! Also, Okla has the motivation of "returning to the scene of the crime." In LY's Fiesta Bowl, the Sooners were done in by some late-game "gimmick plays" by Boise State, which have become part of bowl lore! My Fiesta Bowl Shootout is a 15* on Oklahoma.
Good Luck...Larry
ROSS BENJAMIN COMP
Sacramento @ New York 7:35 PM ET 1/2/2008
Play On: New York –3.5
Any home favorite of –4.0 or less, off an 0-3 SU and ATS all as an underdog, has a win percentage of less than .300, and is playing an opponent that scored 91 or more points in their previous game is 17-1 SU and ATS since 1990.
three2won
Wed, 01/02/08 - 7:00 PMThree2Won | CBB Sides Single-Dime Bet
749 Duquesne -5.0 (-120) BetUS vs 750 Bowling Green
Analysis:
Duquesne -5 (-120) at BetUS
1-UNIT (maybe upgraded tomorrow)
I have a bunch of information that supports the Dukes in this spot. I hate road favorites, and I generally try to avoid them, but I think we can beat this spread by 5 points or more
I love Duquesne because they are 21st in the nation in FG defense! They limit their opponents to 38% from the field!
They limit teams to 7.4 THREE-pointers per game as well (34%)
This is good, but it doesnt matter when Bowling Green only makes about 4.5 THREES per game on only about 14 attempts.
This is a game that should take place underneath the arc.
Duquesne is 49th in the nation in FG%. (48%)
They are stellar from the line: (76%)
They create 18 turnovers per game.
They make almost 20 assists per game.
Bowling Green turns it over more than they assist.
We've been down this road before and lost, with James Madison, the other night, but the fact of the matter is that the Dukes are much stronger than Bowling Green.
Let's use this as a template though:
The Dukes held mighty Pittsburgh to 41% from the field and 25% from the THREE-POINT line.
Is that enough basis for FACT?
What I need to tell you is that Bowling Green has sort of stunk it up in the last three games, because their best player is out for the season. They barely beat a 1-11 team in their last outing (at Home). (Eastern Illinois).
I ran short on time to give you a full report, but I really feel as if Bowling Green is overrated in this wager.
Good luck....
Wed, 01/02/08 - 9:00 PMThree2Won | CBB Sides Single-Dime Bet
779 Penn St. 2.0 (-120) BetUS vs 780 Northwestern
Analysis:
Penn State +2 (-120) at BetUS
1-UNIT
Northwestern is a small team that has a penchant for beating the lousy teams on its schedule. They dono't out rebound many people.
Their biggest returning starter from last year, 68 Kevin Coble is out for the season, and while hes been replaced by younger frontcourt players, they have essentially disappeared against bigger, more experienced teams.
Even with its powder-puff schedule, you will find that Northwestern is 247th in the nation in FG% Defense. Teams are hitting 46% against them!
And this is where Penn State has them beat.
PSU is the type of team that will take its chances underneath the ARC. As an example, they out rebounded South Carolina 50-28. The out rebounded Seton Hall, Saint Joes, and most of their opponents.
They are one of the better 3-pointer defenses in the country and limit their opponents to 31% shooting from the ARC
So they are a team that has athleticism in the paint and they defend on the perimeter very well.
They average over 40 rebounds per game! They defend the THREE.
Northwestern averages only 24 rebounds per game. They play a perimeter game.
Their aim is to kill you from the ARC, and we have a defense that is well suited to defend the ARC.
There is no competition on the boards.
The King Maker goes past the stats and reviews each statistical match-up. In this case, I have to see if Northwestern can consistently provide a presence in the paint. My reasoning here is that a team with an average of 24 rebounds per game may be doing well against bad teams and stinking against good teams. I looked, and I was correct!
*Ive already established that Penn State is actually a competitive rebounding team.
My question to myself was: How does NW perform against competitive teams.
Here's the breakdown:
Stanford:
Stanford beat NW by 11 at NW: Stanford drilled them on the boards: 38-20
*Stan drilled them even though STAN shot 33% from the ARC, wasting 16 shots and turning the ball over 16 times!!!!!
DePaul:
Depaul beat NW by out rebounding them 44-22 while shooting a miserable 35% from the field, 31% from the ARC, and 56% from the foul line!!!!!
Brown:
Brown out rebounded NW 26-18, even though the Brownies turned the ball over 16 times. BROWN won by 6 points!!!!!!
Virginia:
Virginia beat NW by 42 and out boarded them 42-25
I could go on, but what needs to be noted here is that Northwestern is a horrible rebounding team, and they cant stop anyone! That's where the 46% FG percentage comes from. It's almost as if a clear path is open to the boards.
When I broke down each front court player for Northwestern I noticed a DRAMATIC DECREASE in point production from their 3,4,and 5s. It takes too much typing to prove this, but there is a definite drop in production when a team like Penn State comes into town.
Finally:
Penn States alignment of running two guards and a G-F is perfect for isolating the perimeter shooter, and thats why they can defend the THREE and still out rebound, even the better teams. Northwestern tries to make it work on the perimeter, just like DENVER.
DENVER runs a motion offense of the PRINCETON type. They work everything on the edges..
Penn State just held Denver to 39 points.
Thats 30% shooting from the field and 15% from the ARC.
Denver scored 10 points in the first half.
Seton Hall scored 23 points in the second half against Penn State.
BY THE WAY: PENN STATE STINKS FROM THE FOUL LINE. They shoot 60%
But that doesn't really help Northwestern.
NORTHWESTERN SHOOTS 61% FROM THE LINE.
We have a live doggie today folks.
I love our chances!
Wed, 01/02/08 - 8:00 PMThree2Won | CFB MoneyLine Double-Dime Bet
476 Oklahoma (-115) BetUS vs 475 West Virginia
Analysis:
Here's a nice Parlay for today:
2-UNIT
CFB Oklahoma Sooners -320 BetUS
CBB Duquesne Dukes -250 BetUS
Greg Shaker
CBB Total
double-dime bet Dayton / Akro Over 134.0
Analysis: NCAAB: Akron Zips at Dayton Flyers - Over 134 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Note: This number has been set too low for this contest and not due to either team posing any major pace. In fact they both rank close to the lower 1/3 of all teams in the NCAA in that department. What we do have are two squads that know how to score with both possessing offensive efficiencies in the top 25% in the country. We also have a Flyer squad that has been very potent on their home floor, scoring 76 per game here this year. That is perhaps why OVER is now 11-1 the last 12 lined games in Dayton Ohio as this team can flat out shoot from anywhere on the court and especially from 3 point land where balls have nestled in the net at 42% this year. We saw them grab 80 points from a very good Pitt D just the other day in a game that I had. That was a huge win for this team and expected D intensity for this one is not going to happen many more times than not. The Zips play a pretty good brand of D, but no enough to stop the Flyers. They have proven to me though that they can produce and they will pace up when getting behind in games played. They will be working from behind in this one more than likely. Play this one up to 137.
Stan Sharp
CBB Sides
double-dime bet747 Northeastern -2.0 vs Towson
Analysis: All 3 of Stan's Top College Basketball Bettors all agree that Northeastern should Win by 8-11 Points tonight and thus Stan is making his only bet of the night on Northeastern. TAKE NORTHEASTERN as STAN'S WED. COLLEGE HOOP BLOWOUT and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.