NFL and College Football Newsletters for Thursday, August 31st, 2017 to Monday, September 4th, 2017
Joe Gavazzi
Fortress Game of the Week
Boston College (-4) at Northern Illinois 9:30 PM ET CBC
After a run of 36-3 SU at Huskie Stadium for the previous 7 years, Northern Illinois dipped to 2-3 SU on their home field in 2016. It was a reason why NIU finished 5-7 SU last year for 5th year HC Carey. One look at the loss totals during his regime implies that the bottom may have dropped out from the Northern Illinois program. They have gone from 2 to 3 to 6 to 7 losses under HC Carey. A closer inspection of the log shows a night and day season. Continuing QB injuries were in no small part responsible for a 1-6 SU start to 2016. To the credit of Carey and the Huskies, they rebounded to finish 4-1 SU (7-1 ATS) while averaging 43 PPG those last 8 games. Along with the resulting line swing from the overall performance, it provides plenty of line value for a Huskie team looking for a bounce back season. There is some reason for concern with their lack of experience on the offensive side of the ball as there are just 5 RS. But today’s opener allows a clean slate and a chance for them to prove their worth in front of home fans who expected far more last season. Today’s visitor is in a Game #1 sandwich spot. The Eagles made it to a Bowl last year (where they beat Maryland 36-30) for a 7-6 SU record. Consider, however, that the victims were U. Mass, Wagner, Buffalo, U. Conn, Wake, and their lone quality win vs. NC State. It is hardly an endorsement for a road favorite who is sandwiched between that Bowl win and their schedule for the next three weeks which finds them opening ACC play vs. Wake Forest next week followed by games against arch rival Notre Dame, and then vs. national defending champion, Clemson. With an offense that has averaged 20 or less points in each of the last two seasons as well as under 300 YPG, it hardly qualifies them as road chalk. Huskies begin defense of their home turf in style, in our Fortress Game of the Week.
Faux or Fo’real
Colorado State vs. Colorado (-5-) 8:00 PM ET PAC 12
This annual neutral field game between these Rocky Mountain rivals provides ample opportunity for underdog Colorado State to let us know whether they are Faux or Fo’real. My vote is for the latter based on their current offensive momentum as well as their revenge motive. It was just one year ago when these two opened the season with the Buffs prevailing 44-7 in a game where they held a yardage edge 578-225. Plenty of motivation for State for that embarrassing loss. Despite that defeat, the Rams would go on to a successful season highlighted by late season victories against MWC leaders New Mexico and San Diego State. Though they had a letdown in a 61-50 loss to Idaho in their Bowl game, the offense, which scored 46 or more points in their last 4 games of 2016, came to life once again in Week #1 of this season with 58 points and 525 yards in a 31 point victory over another PAC 12 team, Oregon State. Before we get too excited about that game, note that the Rams profited from 5 Oregon State turnovers. Nonetheless, that victory means that Colorado State enters this rivalry revenge game on an 8-0 ATS regular season run from last season. They are also in their ideal role of underdog in which they were 6-1 ATS last season. Today’s opponent, Colorado, had a breakthrough season in 2016 after going 10-27 SU for HC MacIntyre in his first 3 seasons. The Buffs used the opening day win vs. the Rams to go on to a 10-4 SU, 9-4 ATS campaign. The season, however, ended on a downer with a 31 point loss to Washington in the PAC 12 Playoff game and a 30 point loss the Oklahoma State in their Bowl game. Though 9 starters return on the offensive side of the ball, that unit loses their emotional leader QB Liufau. Greater problems will come with the defensive side of the ball which improved dramatically to 22/341 under former DC Wilcox (who has since left for the California job). Now, just 3 defensive starters return to face that potent Colorado State offense led by QB Stevens. That’s enough ammunition for the Rams to prove they are Fo’real in this rivalry revenge matchup.
Hidden Gem of the Week
Wyoming at Iowa (-11-) Noon ET BIG 10
One cause for concern with this Hidden Gem, a Wyoming program which many feel will challenge for MWC supremacy, is that ample public money has lined up with this double digit dog. There are, however, plenty of good reasons. Wyoming is a team on the come under respected 4th year HC Bohl, a coach who led North Dakota State to multiple National Championships. His 4 year building program is about to reach fruition. Even starting the most underclassmen in the Nation last year, Wyoming broke through to the plus side of the ledger with an 8-6 SU season. That was a dramatic improvement to the 6-18 SU mark under Bohl as he rebuilt the program in Laramie. Despite the winning season, their are remaining concerns about a defense who under Bohl had allowed 33 or more PPG and 431 YPG in each of his first 3 seasons. To the rescue comes new DC Hazelton, a former Jacksonville Jags assistant who was Bohl’s DC at North Dakota State in the Championship seasons. Expect vast improvement from the stop unit. The offense already made their strides with the addition of returning QB Allen, one of the best returning QBs in the Nation. Expect the Cowboys recent roll of 11-4 ATS and 8-1 ATS as underdog to continue in this opening day matchup. Considering that host Iowa lost to North Dakota State last season on this field, 23-21, do not expect the Hawkeyes to take the visitor lightly. They are coached by 19th year mentor Ferentz, whose MO is firmly in place. This team is going to play solid defense and try to control the football. However, QB Bethard , last year’s star signal caller, has matriculated to the NFL implying a typical conservative Ferentz game plan. That has resulted with a record for Ferentz coached teams of 13-22 ATS on this field, 4-10 ATS as double digit favorite and 1-7 ATS in their look-ahead game prior to instate rival Iowa State. Make Wyoming your Hidden Gem of the Week.
If It Ain’t Broke… Don’t Fix It
Miami, Ohio at Marshall (-2-) 6:30 PM ET
I see potential danger in this play as the Thundering Herd, under 8th year HC Holliday, is listed as one of my potential “bounceback teams”. After a previous 3 year record of 33-8 SU, the Herd tumbled into obscurity last season with a mark of 3-9 SU, 3-8 ATS. Lone victories included Morgan State and Florida Atlantic. There was a precipitous decline in defense from 18/359 to 35/455 with the Herd becoming a member of the “200 Club” on defense (allowed 200 or more YPG both running and passing). Of even greater concern, was an offensive dip to 26/350 including 108/3.3 overland. Though QB Litton returns as the starting signal caller, much of the blame for last year’s internal discord was laid at his feet. Until things turn around, we will follow the momentum of each team including that of Miami, Ohio who will be entering this season with an If It Ain’t Broke… Don’t Fix It mentality. The Red Hawks began last year going 0-6 SU. It dropped their 3+ year record to 5-37 SU. Then, coinciding with the insertion of QB Ragland (17/1 ratio) at the controls, the Red Hawks finished the year 6-1 SU, ATS including a narrow miss in their Bowl game, a 17-16 loss (as +14) to SEC rep Miss. State. With 17 returning starters including QB Ragland and over 80 returning lettermen, this is one of the most experienced teams in the Nation. With the further addition of the advantages of extra Bowl practices vs. a non-bowler, we can only follow the momentum of these teams in a game in which Miami would have been more than a TD road favorite at the end of last season.
Lone Ranger Game of the Week
U. Mass (-2-) at Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ET
Win or lose, this is why the Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter is your best friend each week. Because the following information is not available in any other missive of this type. But before I can tell you that story, allow me to share this one. Coastal Carolina is located 10 miles from the heart of Myrtle Beach. The perfectly designed campus, which now features slightly more than 10,000 students, is a reason why you want your child to go to college there. Another reason is that the campus has “gone green”. In fact, you will see green everywhere as the campus color is a beautiful teal. That includes Brooks Stadium which is the only football field in the Nation with teal turf. Their nickname is the Chanticleers. For those unfamiliar, a Chanticleer is the most feared rooster in the barnyard. Yes, even more than the Gamecock, the mascot of “Big Brother” South Carolina. The nickname of the team is the “Chants” (pronounced “Shonts”) and if you are ever on campus MAKE SURE YOU PRONOUNCE IT CORRECTLY. CCU was first founded around 60 years ago. But the campus underwent serious construction in the early 80’s with less than 1,000 students. As it continues to grow, so has the football program. The team is led by Joe Moglia. For those unfamiliar, he is the Chairman of the Board of AmeriTrade, a company he helped to found. Today, however, his passion is CCU football. It has shown with a 51-15 SU 5 year record playing in the Big South. Reports have surfaced that Moglia is suffering from health concerns. Here’s the real scoop… he is on a 5 month health sabbatical (meaning he will miss the entire football season) due to a bronchial asthmatic reaction to allergies. Once word has gotten out, this line has moved a full 5 points to U. Mass -2-. That’s a joke! What you are about to learn is that the school is now being piloted by former OC Jamey Chadwell who came on board in January when former OC Patenard went for the money as OC at Temple. Chadwell was a hiring coup for Moglia. He is the former HC at Charleston Southern where he went 35-14 and was the 3 time Big South Coach of the Year. In addition, the DC is Mickey Mathews, the former HC at James Madison who won a National Title while head man with the Dukes in Harrisonburg. In short, this team does not beg for leadership. In anticipation of their move to the Sun Belt, Moglia red shirted nearly his entire freshman class last year. Thus, do not be fooled by the reported 9 returning starters for the Chants. These RS Frosh experienced a winning culture of last year’s 10-2 SU team. With injuries striking no fewer than 5 QBs, Coastal finished the year with a walk-on and went 10-2 SU with both losses by a single point. This is a winning program, who in my opinion, is way under the radar as they enter play with the Big Boys. Those who do not believe should feel free to follow the 5 point line movement as so many have. If you do that, you will be backing a 10-51 SU U. Mass. team who was 0-6 SU on the road last year. Should you like the fact that the Minute Men have a 1 game experience edge, note that losing teams find a way to lose such as U. Mass. did in their 38-35 defeat to Hawaii in the closing minute when they allowed 503 yards. You may be alone in wagering on CCU this week, but at least now you’ll know why the selection will win.
Steamroller Game of the Week
Arkansas State at Nebraska (-16) 8:00 PM ET BIG 10
It has become most apparent that under 4th year HC Anderson, Ark State has a clear goal of winning the Sun Belt Conference. The “Pay Day Games” of September are used by Anderson to gear his team for league play where his Wolves have gone 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS the previous 2 years. You want no part of the Red Wolves knowing that last year’s 0-3 SU, ATS start, which included losses of 31-10 to Toledo, 51-14 to Auburn, and 34-20 to Utah State (-57 AFP) may well be repeated this season. For it will surely take time for Anderson to mold only 9 returning starters including just 1 lineman combined on both sides of the ball as they begin the 2017 campaign. Figure this to be yet another instance which they get Steamrolled by a bigger, stronger, faster opponent. Do not be fooled by the surface appearance of the fact this Nebraska team lacks experience. It is their 3rd year under HC Riley who at last has his own pieces in place to operate his pro-style offense. Though they have lost an experienced QB, he will be ably replaced by Tanner Lee, a Tulane transfer who is reported to be perfectly suited for Riley’s offensive sets. On the defensive side of the ball, new DC Diaco, who proved to be a great success in that role at Notre Dame, but met his Peter Principle when bombing out badly as HC at U. Conn. Now back in a more comfortable role, look for Diaco’s influence to be a positive one on 7 defensive returning starters. Riley is just 15-13 SU in his 2 years at Lincoln. That does not cut it for the Husker faithful who are accustomed to double digit win campaigns. With a trip to Oregon on deck, it is essential that after losing their last 2 games of 2016, this year’s 2017 version of Nebraska gets off to a huge confidence-building win. Ark State is the perfect opponent for them to Steamroll.
Penthouse Pick
California at North Carolina (-12) 12:20 PM ET
The Sonny Dykes era was a major defensive disappointment in Berkeley. In 3 of the previous 4 seasons, the Bears allowed 40 or more points and 512 or more yards. Enter new HC Justin Wilcox, most recently the DC at Wisconsin who also proved his wares while holding the same position at Boise, Tennessee, USC, and Washington. For some reason, he hired Tim Deruyter, a qualified failure as HC at Fresno, as his new DC. To keep the offense spiced up, his new OC is Beau Baldwin, a former HC at high-scoring E. Wash. After a 5-7 SU, ATS season, look for improvement from the Golden Bears. That may come in time. But in their first game 3,000 miles from home with a 9:00 AM body time start, they figure to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Major issues on offense are the fact they have one of the least experienced OLs in the Nation. And with a new starting QB, the stage is set for an early 1stquarter 2 TD deficit. On the surface, it may appear the Tarheels also lack experience and must replace starting QB Trubisky, a first round pick. A closer inspection of the roster under 6th year HC Fedora, shows us that there are multiple transfers from schools such as Florida, LSU, and USC ready to step in to fill the void. These Cal players are not used to success on the road as they were 0-5 SU away last season losing by 35 at Wash State, 21 at USC, 3 at Oregon State, 10 at Az State, and 5 at San Diego State failing to cover any of those contests. It all adds up to a comfortable home victory by the Heels against a traveler a long way from home and in a bad situation while attempting to break in their new players and coaches.
Crusher of the Week
Temple at Notre Dame (-17-) 3:30 PM ET NBC
Go no further than my lead article of the week entitled “Shooting Holes in the Returning Starter Theory” at JoeGavazziSports.com (click CFB articles/Free picks) to see why we may get “valued out” in this game. For the linemaker has seen exactly what I see in this game and made the attendant adjustments in a contest where the visiting Owls may actually have been the favorite at the close of last year. Let’s flash back to that period in time to a Temple team who was then coached by HC Rhule (now at Baylor). His Owls were just completing consecutive 10-4 SU seasons and were 20-7 ATS for those 2 years. But with the departure of Rhule, the Owls fortunes may well revert to the team who was 8-16 SU the 2 years before their runup. Former Florida DC Collins is now entrusted with guiding the Owls fortunes. Unfortunately, he inherits a team that is among the least experienced in the Nation in no small part because nearly ½ of the starts from last season were by the (then) senior class. Collins has set a standard in which he expects the bar to be raised by every player on the Owls team this season. The mind may be willing but with just 42 lettermen returning and only 9 RS, will the bodies be able. Furthering our caveat emptor is the fact that we are looking to fade a double digit dog who had the advantage of Bowl practices while their favorite opponent did not. Nonetheless, there are huge expectations from this bureau that the Irish are looking to bounce back from a dismal 4-8 SU, ATS season. No coach may be approaching the season with more urgency than 8th year Irish mentor Brian Kelly who is feeling the heat in South Bend. Many will point to an Irish look-ahead to Georgia and a schedule that is littered with quality opponents. All the more reason why Kelly and the Irish need a huge confidence-building win behind new signal caller QB Winbush to set the stage for the huge bounce back season. In the quickly changing world of college sports, there is little doubt in my mind that the Fighting Irish exemplify your Crusher of the Week!
Under the Radar Game of the Week
Appalachian State at Georgia (-14-) 6:16 PM ET ESPN
For those unfamiliar with the highly successful App State program, this is a great example of an Under the Radar play. Few will give a 2nd thought to supporting a Sun Belt team visiting an upper echelon SEC team. The truth is, this could easily have qualified as a Faux or Fo’real play as the Mountaineers are clearly the latter. First, consider their performance in Game #1 of last year at Tennessee, another team from the SEC East. They took the Vols to OT being outgained only 319-292 before falling 20-13. Under 5th year HC Satterfield with a veteran QB in Taylor Lamb and RB in Jalin Moore, these Under the Radar Mountaineers have gone 21-5 SU the previous 2 seasons. As the class of the Sun Belt, they have been a road warrior with a traveling log of 9-4 ATS in the last two years. To let you know this program is Fo’real, App State has had only 1 losing season in the last 25 years and prior to their inclusion in the Sun Belt in 2014, had captured 3 FCS National Titles in the previous 10 years. Host, Georgia, figures to make strides in the 2nd year under HC Smart. With 18 RS including QB Eason and RBs Chubb and Michel, they will look to pound the ground and use a staunch defense that allowed just 327 YPG. But App State will give overland yardage grudgingly as they feature a defensive front 7 that has allowed just 128/3.6 L2Y. Put Georgia down for the “W” but with a look ahead trip to Notre Dame next week and Smart posting a 0-4 ATS mark as home chalk last year, there is plenty of room for this visitor to come in Under the Radar and under the pointspread.
ICE Game of the Week
Kentucky (-10) at Southern Mississippi 4:00 PM ET CBC
For those unfamiliar with the ICE games, it features a team who looks to compete with Intensity, Conviction and Execution for all 4 quarters. Kentucky figures to qualify under those parameters considering the results of last year’s game against these Golden Eagles. In the 2016 season opener in which the Wild Cats were a 4 point favorite on their home field, they put up 35 points in the first half and led by 25. Perhaps looking ahead to their SEC opener at Florida the following week, the Wild Cats came out flat as a pancake in the 2nd half failing to dent the end zone and losing 44-35. With a team returning 80 lettermen and among the top 20 experienced teams in the country and with only Eastern Kentucky on the slate next week, expect the Wild Cats with 17 returning starters to be the epitome of an ICE team. For Southern Miss, this could well be a program headed the opposite direction. At one point in time, the Golden Eagles lost to the pointspread in 7 consecutive games under then 1st year HC Hopson. This year, the Eagles return only 11 starters and will sorely miss QB Mullens, the 3 year starter. That means a new starter in the signal caller spot on the SEC road against a very hungry avenging Wild Cat. Should this game be ICED at the half as it was last season (Kentucky led 35-10), expect no letup from the Wild Cats.
Puppy Game of the Week
Michigan (-3-) vs. Florida 3:30 PM ET ABC
A 14-5 returning starter edge is a major advantage for a hungry Florida team which has many players still on the roster who recall the embarrassing 2015 41-7 loss to Michigan in their Bowl game. There is little doubt that under 3rd year HC Harbaugh, the Wolves will be relevant once again in Big 10 action. After all, in 2 years, his Wolves have averaged 36 PPG and fielded a defense that has allowed a combined 15/270. With consecutive Top 10 recruiting classes, these Wolves remain hungry. But with over 75% of all starts last year by seniors, there is clearly a learning curve as this team approaches 2017. In addition, there may well be a lack of confidence after a 1-3 SU, ATS finish last year including narrow defeats at the hands of Iowa by 1, Ohio State by 3, and Florida State by 1. Under 3rd year HC McElwain, there is plenty of reason to expect the Gators to build on their combined 19-8 SU record in the last 2 seasons. In 2016, both the offense and defense improved in points and yards yet the ATS record tumbled. That is a sure indicator of future success. With 74 returning lettermen, put down the Gators as the more veteran team in this one for they return 4 OL who McElwain feels is the heart of his team. He may alternate as many as 3 quality QBs in the course of today’s action who will each be aided by 5/7 top receivers from last year in their best lead back. Clearly this is a Florida team with huge upside meaning an outright victory will be no surprise to this bureau.
Underdog Game of the Week
Florida State vs. Alabama (-7-) 8:00 PM ET ABC
One of the all-time great opening week games featuring a pair of Top 5 teams with Top 5 defenses and 2nd year signal callers, each of whom had a phenomenal frosh season. Anybody who followed Alabama football last season will be ignoring this recommendation with the memory of Alabama averaging nearly a defensive touchdown per game despite the fact they forced less than 2.5 TO’s per game. First, THAT’S INCREDIBLE! Second, THAT BEGS FOR REVERSAL! Plenty of value with the Sems who will use this TD underdog status as plenty of motivation against the legendary Nick Saban and Alabama Crimson Tide, the perception of whom is more than amply reflected in this betting line. Do not be surprised when Florida State wins this game outright.
Perception/Reality Game of the Week
Troy State at Boise State (-10-) 3:45 PM ET ESPNU
Long time readers know that I seldom use a double digit favorite as a Perception/Reality team. In this game, however, I see great value in using a quality Boise team who figures to have great value on the betting line, at least in the initial part of the season. But before I can tell you that story, let’s take a look at the Troy Trojans who will traveling over 2,000 miles to the mountain atmosphere of Boise. Under 3rd year HC Brown, the Trojans had an incredible turn-around season in 2016. After consecutive seasons of a combined 7-17 SU, Troy went 10-3 SU last year outscoring the opposition by an average of 34-22. This year with 16 RS, including 10 on the offensive side of the ball led by QB Silvers, the Trojans look to build on their success with a bevy of upper classmen. Look for offensive fireworks considering they have almost 100% of their offensive yards returning, the most in the Nation. If you are worried about them stepping up in class, know that, as 35 point road dog last year, they lost by only 6 at Clemson being outgained only 416-394. Last season, however, was when Troy flew under the radar. This year, based on their success and experience, Boise will be on high alert. In considering the Broncos finished the year 0-2 SU, ATS with losses to Air Force (as usual) and to Baylor in their Bowl game, there will be plenty of hunger on the part of the Broncos. Though Boise went 10-3 SU last year, their reputation preceded them with a 3-10 ATS log that included 0-6 ATS as home chalk dropping their record to 1-10 ATS in that role the last 2 seasons. Remember when it was almost automatic to lay the points at home with Boise. Furthering the issues for Boise backers is that this will be one of their least experienced teams in years. They are in the bottom 10% in overall experience in returning lettermen (only 60) and have just 9 returning starters. Is there any wonder that the public’s perception clearly favors the Troy Trojans while the reality is that this line has been beaten down on the Broncos who are set for an ATS bounce back this season.