Week 1 NCAAF Newsletters

Sunshine Forecast NCAA

Thursday, September 3, 2009

South Carolina(+3½) at No Carolina State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
No Carolina State 28 South Carolina 24 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
No Carolina State 29 South Carolina 24

Utah State(+21) at Utah
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Utah 46 Utah State 15 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Utah 51 Utah State 20

Oregon(+6½) at Boise State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Boise State 36 Oregon 26 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Boise State 41 Oregon 31

Troy(-6½) at Bowling Green
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Troy 32 Bowling Green 30 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Troy 37 Bowling Green 35

North Texas(+17½) at Ball State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Ball State 53 North Texas 13 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ball State 59 North Texas 19

North Dakota St at Iowa State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Iowa State 32 North Dakota St 16 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Iowa State 30 North Dakota St 14

Villanova at Temple
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Temple 27 Villanova 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Temple 35 Villanova 0

Coastal Carolina at Kent State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Kent State 30 Coastal Carolina 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kent State 31 Coastal Carolina 0

Friday, September 4, 2009

Tulsa(-13½) at Tulane
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Tulsa 45 Tulane 23 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tulsa 51 Tulane 29
Historical trend: Take Tulsa ( Domination by Tulsa, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Tulsa ( Domination by favorite, 4-0, 100.0% )

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Navy(+21½) at Ohio State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Ohio State 30 Navy 18 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ohio State 28 Navy 16

Akron(+28) at Penn State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Penn State 44 Akron 14 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Penn State 47 Akron 17

Western Michigan(+12½) at Michigan
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Western Michigan 25 Michigan 20 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Western Michigan 21 Michigan 17

Connecticut(-5) at Ohio
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Connecticut 28 Ohio 20 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Connecticut 26 Ohio 19

Nevada-Reno(+13½) at Notre Dame
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Notre Dame 33 Nevada-Reno 31 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Notre Dame 39 Nevada-Reno 37

Georgia(+6) at Oklahoma State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Oklahoma State 38 Georgia 32 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oklahoma State 44 Georgia 38

Kentucky(-14½) vs. Miami-Ohio
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Kentucky 30 Miami-Ohio 19 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kentucky 30 Miami-Ohio 17

Brigham Young(+22) vs. Oklahoma
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Oklahoma 44 Brigham Young 23 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oklahoma 50 Brigham Young 29

Missouri(+7) vs. Illinois
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Missouri 35 Illinois 25 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Missouri 38 Illinois 28

Rice(+5) at U-A-B
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Rice 34 U-A-B 22 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Rice 35 U-A-B 24

Baylor(+1) at Wake Forest
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Wake Forest 29 Baylor 23 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wake Forest 28 Baylor 24

Minnesota(-6½) at Syracuse
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Minnesota 31 Syracuse 24 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Minnesota 33 Syracuse 26

Army(+4) at Eastern Michigan
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Army 29 Eastern Michigan 23 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Army 30 Eastern Michigan 24

Northern Illinois(+16) at Wisconsin
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Wisconsin 27 Northern Illinois 25 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wisconsin 28 Northern Illinois 26

Toledo(+13½) at Purdue
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Purdue 30 Toledo 16 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Purdue 27 Toledo 14

Stanford(-14½) at Washington State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Stanford 40 Washington State 15 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Stanford 42 Washington State 17

Louisiana Tech(+13½) at Auburn
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Auburn 21 Louisiana Tech 17 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Auburn 16 Louisiana Tech 12

New Mexico(+14½) at Texas A+M
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
New Mexico 26 Texas A+M 21 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico 24 Texas A+M 20

Virginia Tech(+5) vs. Alabama
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Alabama 26 Virginia Tech 15 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Alabama 22 Virginia Tech 10

Idaho(+3½) at New Mexico State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
New Mexico State 37 Idaho 28 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico State 44 Idaho 34
Historical trend: Take Idaho ( Domination by Idaho, 6-1, 85.7% )

Buffalo(+6½) at UTEP
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
UTEP 34 Buffalo 33 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Buffalo 39 UTEP 38

Maryland(+20½) at California
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
California 31 Maryland 15 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
California 28 Maryland 12

San Jose State(+34) at Southern Cal
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Southern Cal 40 San Jose State 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Cal 41 San Jose State 0

Central Michigan(+13) at Arizona
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Arizona 42 Central Michigan 22 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arizona 42 Central Michigan 21

San Diego State(+18) at U.C.L.A.
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
U.C.L.A. 31 San Diego State 16 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
U.C.L.A. 30 San Diego State 14

Louisiana State(-15) at Washington
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Louisiana State 40 Washington 16 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisiana State 43 Washington 18

Florida Atlantic(+21½) at Nebraska
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Nebraska 33 Florida Atlantic 19 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nebraska 33 Florida Atlantic 20

Middle Tennessee(+20½) at Clemson
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Clemson 35 Middle Tennessee 18 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Clemson 36 Middle Tennessee 19

UL-Monroe(+40½) at Texas
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Texas 46 UL-Monroe 10 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas 49 UL-Monroe 13

Western Kentucky(+30½) at Tennessee
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Tennessee 27 Western Kentucky 6 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tennessee 24 Western Kentucky 3

Alcorn State at Southern Miss
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Southern Miss 55 Alcorn State 1 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Miss 58 Alcorn State 3

Appalachian State at East Carolina
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
East Carolina 35 Appalachian State 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
East Carolina 45 Appalachian State 0

Stephen F Austin at S-M-U
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
S-M-U 49 Stephen F Austin 19 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
S-M-U 55 Stephen F Austin 25

Charleston Southern at Florida
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Florida 65 Charleston Southern 2 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida 71 Charleston Southern 7

The Citadel at North Carolina
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
North Carolina 51 The Citadel 14 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
North Carolina 56 The Citadel 20

Eastern Kentucky at Indiana
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Indiana 33 Eastern Kentucky 16 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Indiana 32 Eastern Kentucky 15

Indiana State at Louisville
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Louisville 44 Indiana State 6 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisville 43 Indiana State 6

Jacksonville St at Georgia Tech
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Georgia Tech 31 Jacksonville St 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Georgia Tech 39 Jacksonville St 0

Jackson State at Mississippi State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Mississippi State 24 Jackson State 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Mississippi State 31 Jackson State 0

Liberty at West Virginia
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
West Virginia 33 Liberty 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
West Virginia 45 Liberty 0

Massachusetts at Kansas State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Kansas State 52 Massachusetts 21 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas State 56 Massachusetts 26

Montana State at Michigan State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Michigan State 48 Montana State 2 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Michigan State 47 Montana State 3

Miss Valley State at Arkansas State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Arkansas State 35 Miss Valley State 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arkansas State 38 Miss Valley State 0

Northern Colorado at Kansas
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Kansas 49 Northern Colorado 7 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas 52 Northern Colorado 10

Northeastern at Boston College
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Boston College 42 Northeastern 6 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Boston College 41 Northeastern 6

Northern Iowa at Iowa
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Iowa 36 Northern Iowa 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Iowa 51 Northern Iowa 0

Northwestern St(LA) at Houston
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Houston 58 Northwestern St(LA) 6 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Houston 63 Northwestern St(LA) 11

Portland State at Oregon State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Oregon State 61 Portland State 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oregon State 68 Portland State 0

Samford at U-C-F
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
U-C-F 27 Samford 11 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
U-C-F 23 Samford 7

Southern Illinois at Marshall
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Marshall 38 Southern Illinois 8 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Marshall 38 Southern Illinois 9

Southern Univ at UL-Lafayette
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
UL-Lafayette 38 Southern Univ 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
UL-Lafayette 43 Southern Univ 0

Missouri State at Arkansas
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Arkansas 48 Missouri State 10 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arkansas 51 Missouri State 14

Towson at Northwestern
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Northwestern 31 Towson 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Northwestern 37 Towson 0

Western Carolina at Vanderbilt
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Vanderbilt 50 Western Carolina 2 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Vanderbilt 50 Western Carolina 3

William + Mary at Virginia
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Virginia 37 William + Mary 8 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Virginia 35 William + Mary 6

Wofford at South Florida
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
South Florida 39 Wofford 6 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
South Florida 35 Wofford 3

Youngstown State at Pittsburgh
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Pittsburgh 37 Youngstown State 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh 46 Youngstown State 0

Nicholls State at Air Force
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Air Force 40 Nicholls State 7 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Air Force 38 Nicholls State 6

Weber State at Wyoming
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Wyoming 30 Weber State 19 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wyoming 29 Weber State 17

UC-Davis at Fresno State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Fresno State 26 UC-Davis 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Fresno State 30 UC-Davis 0

North Dakota at Texas Tech
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Texas Tech 44 North Dakota 0 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Tech 52 North Dakota 0

Richmond at Duke
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Duke 32 Richmond 6 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Duke 28 Richmond 3

Idaho State at Arizona State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Arizona State 41 Idaho State 18 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arizona State 45 Idaho State 22

Sacramento State at Nevada-Las Vegas
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Nevada-Las Vegas 32 Sacramento State 17 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nevada-Las Vegas 31 Sacramento State 16

Central Arkansas at Hawaii
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Hawaii 49 Central Arkansas 25 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Hawaii 53 Central Arkansas 30

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Mississippi(-17) at Memphis
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Mississippi 34 Memphis 19 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Mississippi 35 Memphis 20

Colorado State(+12) at Colorado
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Colorado State 27 Colorado 24 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Colorado State 27 Colorado 24

Monday, September 7, 2009

Cincinnati(+6½) at Rutgers
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Rutgers 27 Cincinnati 20 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Rutgers 25 Cincinnati 18

Miami-Florida(+4½) at Florida State
Power Rating Projection: Statistical Projections
Florida State 33 Miami-Florida 25 Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida State 36 Miami-Florida 28
Historical trend: Take Miami-Florida ( Domination by underdog, 6-2, 75.0% )
Historical trend: Take Miami-Florida ( Domination by visiting team, 6-2, 75.0% )

CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS

FAVORITES

Thursday, September 3

Troy (-3) by 5.03 over BOWLING GREEN - Troy has won or shared the last three Sun Belt titles. This season's team may be the best that Troy has fielded since moving up to the FBS level in 2001. The Trojans' last visit to the Buckeye State almost produced an upset over the Buckeyes themselves last September. The Dave Clawson era begins at BGSU while Troy begins its' 19th season under Larry Blakeney.

Friday, September 4

Tulsa (-14) by 25.22 over TULANE - The computer likes the Golden Hurricane by 11+ points more than the oddsmakers. Gone are record-setting QB David Johnson (7th round NFL Draft, Pittsburgh), career rushing leader Tarrion Adams (3,651 yards), and co-offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn (hired by Auburn). Together, they helped the Golden Hurricane average a nation's-best 569.86 yards per game, and score an average of 47.21 points. But what's to worry about? Tulane has lost all 4 CUSA games to Tulsa by at least 24 points.

Saturday, September 5

EASTERN MICHIGAN (-4.5) by 16.94 over Army - Ron English debuts as head coach for EMU. Rich Ellerson has his debut with Army. Both teams are coming off 3-9 seasons. I don't have enough enthusiasm for EMU to agree with the computer's 17-point margin, but returning experience weighs heavily in the Eagles' favor and home field advantage doesn't hurt.

Kentucky (-10) by 17.14 over Miami, Ohio at Cincinnati - All the major preseason publications have both of these teams at or near the bottom of their respective divisions, but 10 points proved to be a weak opening line set by the oddsmakers. The Red Hawks lost last year's season opener at home to Vanderbilt by 21 points. This game will be the head coaching debut for Miami's Michael Haywood.

TEXAS (-36) by 39.28 over Louisiana-Monroe - Texas is opening at home against a Sun Belt team for the 6th straight season. The Longhorns won four of the previous five matchups with SBC teams by at least 42 points.

Lsu (-14) by 24.41 over WASHINGTON - After a down year, LSU is expected to be back in the mix for the SEC West title. The Huskies are coming off a disastrous 0-12 season and haven't posted a winning season since 2002. New head coach Steve Sarkisian inherits a Washington team that was outscored 463-159 last year.

Minnesota (-6) by 14.96 over SYRACUSE - Doug Marrone is the new head coach at Syracuse which has just two home wins over FBS teams in the last two seasons combined. Minnesota's Tim Brewster was 1-11 in his debut campaign in 2007, but improved to 7-6 last year. However, the Golden Gophers begin the season on a 5-game losing streak.

Monday, September 7

FLORIDA STATE (-4) by 8.97 over Miami, Fla. - FSU has won three of the last four meetings, but all of the victories were by 3 points or less. This year, the 'Noles enter the season as prohibitive divisional favorites in the ACC Atlantic while Miami is a consensus 4th-place pick in the Coastal division.

DOGS TO COVER

Friday, September 4

Alabama (-4) by 0.10 over Virginia Tech at Atlanta - Defense is the strong suit of both teams and Virginia Tech's biggest concern should be that 'Bama returns 9 starters on that side of the ball. The computer has hit 65.6% ATS with the Hokies since 2001.

CLEMSON (-21) by 9.10 over Middle Tennessee - MTSU hasn't lost a game by more than 19 points since the 2007 season finale against Troy. Rick Stockstill's Blue Raiders beat Maryland last year.

COLORADO (-13) by 7.41 over Colorado State - Before last season's 21-point win by Colorado there was a 6-year streak where this rivalry game was decided by 7 points or less.

MICHIGAN (-11) by 0.41 over Western Michigan- The teams last met in '02 and '03 and Michigan won each of those contests by at least 17. The Broncos return Tim Hiller at QB (8,080 yards, 76 TD's, 28 INT's) and he'll be throwing against a defense that lost 7 starters.

PURDUE (-13) by 2.29 over Toledo - Purdue begins the Danny Hope era with no returning starters at the skill positions. Toledo returns almost everyone to give Tim Beckman a lot to work with in his first season at the helm.

Saturday, September 5

Mississippi (-17) by 6.76 over MEMPHIS - Ole Miss is 2-1 in its last three games at Memphis, and both wins were decided by 4 points or less.

UPSETS

Thursday, September 3

South Carolina by 0.16 over N.C. STATE (-3.5) - South Carolina won last year's opener 34-0 in Columbia. That was the first meeting between the two teams since 1999 and just the second since the Gamecocks joined the SEC in 1992.

Saturday, September 5

Buffalo by 0.36 over UTEP (-4.5) - Buffalo won 42-17 at home last year. The Bulls went on to finish 8-6 and win the MAC title while the Miners stumbled to 5-7 and missed the bowl season for the 3rd straight year. Buffalo announced August 25 that RB James Starks, the school's career rushing leader, would miss all of his senior season with a labral tear in his shoulder. The computer was 7-5 ATS with UTEP last season, and 8-4 with Buffalo.

Missouri by 5.70 over Illinois (-5.5) at St. Louis - Missouri has won 4 straight in the series, and 5 of the last 6. The Tigers have to overcome the losses of QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin and TE Chase Coffman.

New Mexico by 0.14 over Texas A&M (-11) - I don't agree with this, but I include all of the computer's upset picks. It had the Lobos picked by 9.38 last year and UNM lost by 6. This is the debut game for New Mexico head coach Mike Locksley.

Rice by 6.23 over UAB (-4.5) - The teams haven't met since 2006 when the Owls prevailed 34-33 at home. Record-setting QB-WR combination of Chase Clement and Jarett Dillard (51 TD's by the duo) is gone from Rice's lineup.

POINTWISE NEWSLETTER

1--Virginia Tech over Alabama 23-22
1--Oklahoma over BYU 52-20
2--Rice (+) over UAB 33-27
3--Illinois over Missouri 41-24
4--CALIFORNIA over Maryland 38-10
4--MIAMI (+) over Florida State 25-24 (Mon.)
5--PENN STATE over Akron 50-14
5--Baylor (+) over WAKE FOREST 28-23

Pointwise selections are rated 1-5, and listed in order of strength of selection. Picks rated 1-4 are Key Releases, and picks rated "5" are considered "best of the rest".

Pointwise Red Sheet

89--Auburn (-13') over Louisiana Tech 34-13
89--Texas A & M (-14) over New Mexico 41-17
88--Georgia (+6) over Oklahoma State 29-27
88--Tennessee (-29') over Western Kentucky 48-10
88--Virginia Tech (+6) over Alabama 22-20
88--Central Michigan (+14) over Arizona 20-26

Near choices (87 rating)...Tulsa, Oklahoma, UCLA, Rice,Cincinnati, Ohio U., and Army

89 & above--Superior play
88--Above Average play
87--Near Choice, (i.e. "best of the rest)

Be very careful with newsletters that have links to free download sites that are on some forums,numerous people have reported that some contain a trojan virus so that's why you don't see many this week. If you used any of those links I would suggest a deep scan of your PC.

Sports Memo

DONNIE BLACK

Ole Miss -16 at Memphis O/U 54.5
Recommendation: Ole Miss

Traditionally you will not find us laying big chalk that often, but in the early season we think there are several opportunities to uncover market inefficiencies. While Ole Miss is overrated based on its strong finish and victory over Florida last season, we forecast a strong showing in the non-conference from the Rebels. Meanwhile we project Memphis to be in that three- to four-win range as evidence suggests they are in complete rebuilding mode. The Tigers have the fewest returning starters on both offense and defense in the Eastern Division of Conference- USA. A key of course in the return of only one offensive line starter from 2008’s edition. Last season, with a much more experienced group, Memphis lost to Ole Miss by 17 and was rolled for 216 rushing yards at a clip of 6.0 yards per rush. Out of conference against BCS competition the Tigers allowed 39 points per game and there is no reason to forecast any improvement. Ole Miss will again name the score with the offense poised to post 40+ points. We project a comfortable cover as the gap in this once competitive rivalry continues to widen here in 2009.

MARTY OTTO

Baylor at Wake Forest -2.5 O/U 53.5
Recommendation: Over

Week one of the college football season kicks off this week as Baylor and Wake Forest do work for the second straight season. While the Demon Deacons ran away with a 41-13 win in 2008 this game figures to be much more competitive, yet still high scoring. Baylor returns eight starters from an offensive unit that improved to 28 ppg in head coach Art Briles’ first year in Waco. Quarterback Robert Griffin can beat you with his arm (15 TD passes/3 INTs last year) and his legs (1,118 yards and 13 TDs rushing). He’ll go against a very green defensive unit from Wake that lost seven starters and four NFL draft choices from a year ago. I think Wake’s defense will struggle early on as they attempt to replace quality starters with unproven commodities. But I do expect Wake’s offense to produce plenty of points this season. They return their entire offensive line (119 career starts), have a sound senior quarterback that is quite accurate with the football, and own a stable of strong running backs that can move the chains. We’ll call for both teams to move the football at a swift pace as we play this one up and over a reasonable total.

HELMUT SPORTS

Florida Atlantic at Nebraska -21.5 O/U 61
Recommendation: Nebraska

When it comes to non-conference play, Florida Atlantic has not fared well. Last season in games against Texas, Minnesota and Michigan State they were outscored by a combined 106-13. Those three opponents combined to rush for 688 yards and with a new quarterback in Lincoln, I expect the Huskers to not only concentrate on the run but dominate as well. FAU lost their top six tacklers and return only three starters to a defense that was one of the nation’s worst in 2009. The Owls do have a solid offense that ranked 42nd overall in total offense and we are sure to see a lot of passing from senior signal caller Rusty Smith. As mentioned, I look for the Cornhuskers to start the season off utilizing a more run-oriented offense behind an offensive line that could be the strength off the team with the entire left side returning. Last season the Huskers’ pass defense was not great but considering the amount of high-powered offenses in the Big XII the numbers were skewed. This season the secondary is deeper and should be able to contain Smith and Co. With the exception of maybe Troy, no Sun Belt squad deserves this much respect on the road against a top-tier program. Lay the points with confidence.

BRENT CROW

Virginia Tech vs. Alabama -7 O/U 38
Recommendation: Alabama

My first thought here was to grab the touchdown with the underdog Hokies, but that changed quickly when I really studied this matchup. Virginia Tech will once again have a solid defense, play great special teams, and do all the little things to win under coach Frank Beamer. The problem with the Hokies is a lack of offense, especially in this game against a ferocious Alabama defense. Tech’s offensive line was mediocre last year, and they do not matchup well at all against the front seven of the Crimson Tide. The offense lost its best player in running back Darren Evans (torn ACL) and overall just doesn’t have enough weapons to put together drives against this defense. Tech’s defense will unquestionably be strong but in this spot I feel they will eventually will wear down after what figures to be a lot of three-and-outs by the offense. Bama lost tackle Andre Smith and quarterback John Parker Wilson, but this program has shown the ability to reload and still has dynamic players across the board. I don’t expect a lot of scoring in this game and unless Tech is able to force and capitalize on turnovers, they may not get an offensive touchdown. Alabama should roll over an ACC opponent in Atlanta to open the season for a second straight year.

TIM TRUSHEL

Akron +27 at Penn State O/U 58.5
Recommendation: Akron

With the extra time to prepare, we like to look at experienced underdogs from lesser conferences to have success early on. Akron fits the bill. Clearly if both Penn State and Akron play to peak performance levels the Nittany Lions will win handily. Yet we have to consider the Zips a live cover in this range of nearly a four touchdown underdog. This is likely going to be head coach JD Brookhart’s best team since taking over in 2004. With nine starters back on offense and a proven commodity behind center in senior quarterback Chris Jacquemain, we project a strong successful campaign. The Zips have held their own against the superiorly talented Big Ten teams. To open each of the last four seasons they have faced a top 20 Big Ten opponent and have covered all four. They lost to No. 13 Wisconsin by 19, No. 12 Ohio State by 18, No. 19 Penn State by 18 and No. 13 Purdue by 25. This Akron team is significantly better than any of those Zips outfits of the last four seasons. Penn State is projected for much success, but with just nine starters returning and new faces on both sides of the ball, asking for a welloiled performance in week one could be tough. Take the big underdog.

ERIN RYNNING

Buffalo at UTEP -8 O/U 63
Recommendation: Under

The defending MAC champions travel to El Paso to kickoff their season against UTEP. It was a magical year in Buffalo last season for Turner Gill after his squad made a huge leap and averaged 30.3 points per game. This year isn’t going to come as easy and I look for a real regression from the Bulls’ offense. They lost senior quarterback Drew Willy who was one of the MAC’s best at his position. Sophomore Zach Maynardwill is going to have his hands full in this his first road start. Meanwhile, senior running back James Starks will now miss the season with a bad shoulder. Starks was expected to touch the ball 25 times a game and would have certainly helped the transition of a new signal caller. Defensively, Buffalo should continue to improve with eight starters back. Keep in mind they played in eight overtime periods last season which helped skew what was still respectable numbers. Mike Price’s Miners figure to make a big run in Conference-USA this season. Their offense is going to be good but keep in mind that Buffalo will not play and pass at the speed of what UTEP will typically see on a weekly basis. This looks like a great opportunity to take advantage of an overinflated total. Play it under.

TEDDY COVERS

Nevada at Notre Dame -14 O/U 61
Recommendation: Over

I don’t bet many overs in the first week of the season. Without a preseason, it often takes a week or two for most college football offenses to work out their early season kinks, particularly in the red zone. That being said, there are exceptions to every rule, and this is one matchup that should be a real shootout. The last time we saw Notre Dame on the field, they hung 49 on Hawaii, as quarterback Jimmy Clausen threw for more than 400 yards. Clausen is back for his junior year, as are four starters on the offensive line. Nevada has plenty of experience returning in their secondary, but the talent is back there is lacking. The Wolfpack ranked dead last in the country in pass defense last year and gave up 69 points in their road opener at Missouri. Expect Notre Dame to make plenty of big plays downfield in this contest. But Nevada too has a strong offense, led by junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick, the WAC Offensive POY in 2008. Kaepernick is a dual-threat who guided the offense to more than 500 yards and 37 points per game in 2008. With one of the better offensive lines in the WAC creating holes and junior running back Vai Taua to share the load, look for the Wolfpack to enjoy plenty of success on the ground against the rebuilt Notre Dame front seven.

ANDREW LANGE

Central Michigan at Arizona -13.5 O/U 54
Recommendation: Arizona

A news search regarding Arizona football has everything from “quarterback still yet to be named” to “All-American tight end, questionable for opener”.That doesn’t even include the extensive “key losses” commentary attached to every preseason preview. But factors like offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes,who in two years has quickly established UA into one of the nation’s most balanced attacks, and a vastly underrated defense that ranked third in the PAC-10 in yards and points per game allowed in 2008, has us laying the moderate home chalk Saturday. Central Michigan has unquestionably shown the ability to hang with the likes of Big Ten softies Purdue and Indiana, but over the last two seasons, they lost by margins of 39, 56 and 45 to Georgia, Clemson and Kansas. In its last 10 games against BCS conference schools, CMU allowed no fewer than 31 points and a 45.7 ppg average. Offensively, even with all-world quarterback Dan LeFevour, Central posted totals of 17, 14 and 7 in those three aforementioned games. With 90 degree nighttime heat expected and Arizona boasting the most depth it has had under head coach Mike Stoops, we’ll ignore the “key losses” and grab one of the more favorable lines of the weekend.

The Gold Sheet

COLLEGE ANALYSIS

KEY: Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are
listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards,
passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost.
In each statistical category the leader is listed first. SR—Series Record.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
*South Carolina 24 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 23—Well aware NCS
eager to avenge LY’s embarrassing 34-0 shutout in Columbia (see Looking for
an Angle), but still prefer to “take” with USC squad possessing more weapons
due to HC Spurrier’s recent recruiting hauls. TGS scouts report ‘Cocks
previously-unsteady soph QB Stephen Garcia has honed his decision-making
(less freelancing) under tutelege of new QB coach G.A. Mangus. And with a
group of RBs providing greater burst TY (112th in rushing LY) and a nastier OL,
Garcia works play-action to a dynamic WR corps (gifted 6-3 frosh WRs Bennett
& Jeffrey ready to make early impact) vs. thin, rebuilding Wolfpack 2ndary
coping with a couple of unexpected preseason departures. And while USC
missing suspended 6-8, 281 DE Clifton Geathers, that loss is more than offset
by season-ending injury to State’s ubiquitous LB Nate Irving (80 tackles, 11
TFL, 4 ints. LY). USC’s unorthodox 4-2-5 defense not easily solved, and NCS
just 3-11 as home chalk since ‘04. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-S. CAR. 34-Ncsu 0...S.20-10 S.42/171 N.37/89 S.17/27/4/198 N.5/20/2/49 S.0 N.2)
(08-SOUTH CAROLINA -14 34-0...SR: EVEN 26-26-4)

*UTAH 30 - Utah State 14—With nationally-ranked Utah needing to rebuild
on offensive side (replacing 7 starters including school’s No. 2 all-time leading
QB Brian Johnson), not so sure Utes easily garner their 15th straight victory (12th
consecutive in series) vs. instate rival Utah State. After all, Aggies’ nononsense
1st-year HC Gary Anderson should have a plan on how to attack the
aggressive, gap-control Ute defense (17 ppg) after serving as Utah d.c. L5Ys.
Utah State’s athletic jr. QB Diondre Borel (9 starts LY, 56%), who is directing
new no-huddle attack with nearly all key weapons back, has good running skills
(855 YR LY!). Behind revamped OL (lost 3 starters), Utah’s untested, stillcompeting
QBs juco Terrance Cain and/or true frosh Jordan Wynn might not
carve up reshuffled, fortified (with several jucos), seasoned Aggie defense,
especially with top 3 Ute WRs graduating. Visitor 7-1-1 last 9 in series.
(08-Utah 58-UTAH ST. 10...U.29-8 U.48/233 S.25/27 U.23/32/1/213 S.9/23/1/89 U.2 S.2)
(08-Utah -24' 58-10 07-UTAH -21' 34-18 06-Utah -20 48-0...SR: Utah 76-28-4)

*BOISE STATE 34 - Oregon 32—Don’t tell Boise supporters that it’s too
early to start talking about the BCS. And Broncs (no reg.-season losses on blue
carpet since ‘01!) retain enough elements (including soph southpaw QB Moore)
from LY’s 12-1 squad to make a run at postseason party. But rebuilt BSU front
7 could be a bit vulnerable vs. potent Duck weapons QB Masoli & RB Blount,
while Pac-10 sources say UO won’t miss a beat with new HC Chip Kelly (Mike
Bellotti’s o.c. past 2 years). Remember that Ducks were down to 3rd-string QB
Thomas in LY’s home loss vs. Broncos. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-Boise St. 37-ORE. 32...O.29-16 O.52/227 B.35/38 B.24/36/1/386 O.16/32/3/237 B.1 O.1)
(08-Boise State +10' 37-32...SR: Boise State 1-0)

ADDED GAMES
*Troy 35 - BOWLING GREEN 24—Can’t expect much right away from BG
side still adjusting to new HC Dave Clawson and his staff. Falcon defensive
questions remain unanswered, as BG returns just 3 starters after dismissing NT
Michael Ream and had to hold out star S P.J. Mahone from recent scrimmages
with a neck problem. Troy averaged 33 ppg after Levi Brown took over at QB
LY, as he threw 15 TDs & just 3 ints. in 8 starts. Brown played for Clawson at
Richmond in 2005-06, so he should know how to attack the defensive scheme.
Trojans are 7-3 last 10 as a road favorite and have an explosive rush game led
by 5-7 jr. DuJuan Harris (5.1 ypc, 14 TDs LY). A defense that boasts 4 players
on the Lombardi watch list and one of the best kickers in the southeast in sr.
Sam Glusman (108 pts.) give Troy more edges. (FIRST MEETING)

*BALL STATE 42 - North Texas 17—Realize Ball State attack won’t get
quite the same production now that star QB Nate Davis and 4 offensive linemen
have moved on, but see little percentage in backing North Texas. The not-so-
Mean Green defense has yielded 47 & 48 ppg the last two seasons, and UNT
has a 16-30 spread mark in last 46 games on the line. North Texas has dropped
its last 3 openers by a combined score of 180-23, and BG star RB MiQuale
Lewis should do some damage facing Mean Green defense that’s yielded 5.6
ypc under Todd Dodge, who’s son, RS frosh QB Riley Dodge, will be under
tremendous pressure from vet Card DL. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(FIRST MEETING)

The Gold Sheet Extra

TECHNICIAN'S CORNER

SOUTH CAROLINA at NC STATE (Thursday, September 3)... NCS
closed with a rush last season, covering its last 8 games. Although
Wolfpack was not favored in any of those! NCS just 1-6 as chalk since
‘06 (1-2 under O’Brien since '07), but Wolfpack was 5-0 vs. spread in
revenge role LY and will be looking for some after absorbing 34-0
pasting in last season’s opener. Spurrier has covered just 5 of last 18
on board (5-11-2 vs. line). He’s also just 2-6 last 8 as dog, and 2-7 vs.
number last 9 away from Williams-Brice Stadium. Tech edge-NCS,
based on recent trends.

UTAH STATE at UTAH (Thursday, September 3)...Road team is 4-0-
1 vs. line last 5 and 7-1-1 against spread last 9 in this in-state rivalry.
Utes 14-6 vs. number last 20 on board overall, although they were
only 1-2 vs. line laying DDs at Salt Lake City LY. Note Utah “over” 11-
2 last 13 on board. Utags not bad lately, either, 13-6 vs. spread last 19
on board, and covered 8 of last 12 away from Logan. Andersen debut
for Utags. Tech edge-Utah State, based on series and team trends.

OREGON at BOISE STATE (Thursday, September 3)...Chip Kelly
debut at UO. Bellotti was 13-6 vs. line his last 19 as dog away from
home. Ducks 6-2 vs. line in non-Pac 10 action since ‘07 with one of
those defeats vs. Boise LY. Boise only 2-2 vs. line on blue carpet LY
but 39-15 in role since ‘99. Interestingly, Broncos have covered only
2 of last 7 in first game of season on board. Tech edge-slight to
Oregon, based on team trends.

TROY at BOWLING GREEN (Thursday, September 3)...Troy now 7-
2 vs. number last 9 as visiting favorite. Trojans also 8-4 vs. line last 12
vs. non-Belt foes. Clawson debut at Bowling Green, which
nonetheless covered 12 of last 17 on board for Brandon. Falcons were
3-0 as a dog LY and are 7-1 as a regular-season dog since ‘07, also 5-
2 vs. line in reg.-season vs. non-MAC foes since ‘07. Tech edge-slight
to Troy, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at BALL STATE (Thursday, September 3)...Ball
begins the Stan Parrish era. Cards, however, were only 2-5 vs.
number laying DDs the past two glory years under Brady Hoke despite
19-10 spread mark last 29 on board. Todd Dodge just 4-8 vs. line LY,
and UNT only 7-14 vs. spread as visitor dating back to ‘06. Dodge also
just 6-11 as DD dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based
on UNT negatives.

Winning Points

****BEST BET

GEORGIA over OKLAHOMA STATE* by 14

In making Oklahoma State this level of favorite the oddsmakers have the cart run-ning a full furlong ahead of the horse, as once again the public becomes infatuat-ed with one of those teams that may be more “pretty” than good. Yes, that ZacRobinson-Kendall Hunter-Dez Bryant trio in the skill positions is special, but thelast time that we saw the rest of the Cowboys they were losing late-season show-downs to Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oregon by a combined 67 points, allowingat least 557 yards in each of those defeats. Now there is a new system in place, andwhen fall camp opened five defensive starting positions were still open. That makesyou chalk over an established SEC power? And it is even worse when this particu-lar underdog brings one of the best traveling logs in the history of college football,with a sparkling 30-4 SU under Mark Richt in true road games, including 10-2against ranked teams. Yes, Matthew Stafford was the #1 NFL draft choice, but thatwas based as much on potential as his performances as a Bulldog, and there is noth-ing wrong with having a veteran like senior Joe Cox at QB. While Cox could notbeat out the talent of Stafford, his 31-0 record as a high school starter speaks vol-umes for his leadership and confidence. Surrounded by a veteran OL and great tal-ent in the skill spots the offense might even be better this season, and a DL thatfeatures seven players with starting experience brings that key depth that is so nec-essary on a hot early September afternoon. GEORGIA 35-21

***BEST BET

AUBURN* over LOUISIANA TECH by 30

The last time anyone saw the Tigers, they were being buried 36-0 by Alabama ina sad ending to the Tommy Tuberville years. But this is a program that had gone42-9 the previous four seasons, and what happened last year was more a result ofthe chemistry going bad than any lowering of the talent level, and particularly notefour defeats vs. bowl teams by five points or less. Now Gene Chizik returns home,bringing with him one of the best coaching staffs we have seen put together inmany years, and there is the potential for a quick turnaround. That will certainlybe the focus in the opener in front of the home fans, and it spells bad news againfor a Louisiana Tech program that has only been bringing enough energy toendorse the paychecks for these games in recent years. Under Derek Dooley non-conference trips to California, Mississippi, L.S.U., Kansas and Boise State havebeen a 1-4 ATS disaster in which the closest loss was by 24 points, and they fell acollective 39 points short of the oddsmakers projections. The tally for the programis 1-13 ATS taking double figures on the non-conference road the last five seasons,but the fact that they got enough breaks (+9 in turnovers) to back into a winnablebowl game near home last year now has them in the shortest price range of any ofthose previous trips. An offense that managed only three points in losses at Kansasand Boise State last year does not show the talent to make plays with this class ofdefense, so they grab the check and bow sheepishly again. AUBURN 37-7.

**PREFERRED

Ohio State* over Navy by 11

Using the hard-trying and disciplined Midshipmen in this role has been golden tous through the years, with the count now up to 21-9 as road underdogs since 2000,and the concept fits again here. Not only do the tactics of that option offense cre-ate headaches for opposing defensive coordinators, but it helps to slow the tempoof the game down with effective ball control. It is not easy to cover big numberswhen possessions are reduced, and we rarely see any coach want to tack on that lateTD against a service academy team. If anything those concepts are even more pro-nounced here, with the Buckeyes distracted in a major way with that huge homeshowdown vs. Southern Cal immediately on deck, which makes it difficult forplayers to focus in on film study of smaller and slower athletes, so Jim Tresselwould like to grind this one out as quickly as possible. And while losing NateFrazier up front does impact the Navy defense, there are still six other returningstarters, a rare experience level for that unit. OHIO STATE 27-16.

Notre Dame* over Nevada by 2

Playing against the Irish in the Charlie Weis years has filled a lot of space at the topof these pages and we will start 2009 the same way, with a big pointspread for agame in which we are not even sure that the favorite is the better team. Yes, thereare pre-season rumblings about the Irish making a BCS run, but that is more basedon a weak schedule than anything special that they bring to the table, and do notforget that they were 1-5 SU against bowl opponents during the regular-season lastyear, that being a close win over Navy. Nevada has been bowling each of the lastfour seasons and with a bye week on deck this can actually be treated like a post-season affair, as Colin Kaepernick, Vai Taua and Luke Lipincott attack from those“pistol” sets (when was the last team that had three different players off of 1,000yard rushing totals in the past two seasons?) that can keep the Notre Dame defenseoff balance all afternoon, making it difficult for the Irish to merely win here, muchless get any kind of margin. NOTRE DAME 32-30.

Wake Forest* over Baylor by 14

Yes, young Baylor QB Robert Griffin is very good. But this good? Wake Forestopened 2008 as -11.5 over the Bears in Waco, and rolled to a 41-13 win. Andwhile Griffin did not start that game, he played most of it, completing 11-19 pass-es and leading the team in rushing. So how does that spread go to this one, withBaylor having won one road game the past two seasons, and the savvy Jim Grobedirecting a program that has seen the current seniors go 28-12 the last three sea-sons, with three straight bowl appearances? The Bears will make strides under ArtBriles, but it is not just upgrading the talent that matters in this matchup – to winon this field it comes down to polish, execution and fundamentals, as Grobe’sDeacons continue to be among the masters at those elements of the game (howabout a +66 in turnover ratio over the last eight seasons?). They are 17-5 SU asfavorites the last three seasons, which shows how well they take care of business andin this pointspread range that is all that is being asked. WAKE FOREST 34-20.

Clemson* over Middle Tennessee State by 9

The realities of the A.C.C. television contract make this a true danger zone for theTigers, who can not help but be looking ahead to the challenge of shutting downthe Georgia Tech option attack in a key conference revenge affair on Thursdaynight. So how does Dabo Swinney keep his team focused here? And making ittougher for him is the fact that Middle Tennessee not only brings head coach RickStockstill back to a venue where he was once an assistant, but nine other membersof his program also have roots in the Clemson program. With elusive DwightDasher now getting the offense to himself behind a veteran OL, and with the BlueRaiders not intimidated by this venue (5th year seniors have played at Maryland,Oklahoma, South Carolina, Louisville, L.S.U., Kentucky and Mississippi State),this one finishes much closer on the scoreboard than the true gap between the pro-grams would call for, especially since we have a favorite focused on working theclock and reducing possessions with a lead. CLEMSON 26-17

Powersweep

KEY SELECTIONS

4H TEXAS A&M over New Mexico - LY vs NM, A&M was outgained (236-370) but won the TO battle (+3) in Mike Sherman’s 1st victory as the Aggies HC 28-22 on the road. A&M is 20-1 S/‘88 in home openers, but lost LY to ASU. NMex looks to be in a rebuilding year with just 9 starters back and a new HC and schemes on both sides of the ball. A&M will be much improved with 16 ret starters and now is in Sherman’s 2nd year. A&M is off a disastrous 4-8 year and should want to gain confidence with big early season wins and has the schedule to accomplish that. LY A&M’s 10 returning starters were upset by Ark St in the opener and expect a defense which allowed 462 ypg and 5.2 ypc to dominate a New Mexico offense that is switching to a pass oriented scheme. The Aggies have a bye next week and will hold nothing back. FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 45 New Mexico 17

3H UTEP over Buffalo - These two teams are going in different directions. Buffalo was the MAC Champ last year and does have 14 ret sts including super RB Starks but loses QB Willy and caught a lot of breaks LY to get that title. UTEP could have been a bowl squad but had a couple of tough losses to finish just 5-7. They have one of the most underrated QB’s in the country in Trevor Vittatoe and they also have 15 ret sts. Last year these two met in Buffalo and it was close until Buf got a 34 yd TD pass with :30 left in the half (1 play after 4th down conv) to take the lead and romped in the 2H. It was an unusual trip north for UTEP who were preoccupied by the biggest home game in their history (Texas) which was played the following week. This year it will be a strange trip to the Southwest for Buffalo and UTEP is playing with legitimate revenge. ST and defense are close but UTEP has a large edge on off (#41 vs #112). FORECAST: UTEP 40 Buffalo 23

3H Illinois over Missouri (St Louis) - The Illini were just 5-7 last year and Missouri was the Big 12 North Champs but these two are vastly different teams. Illinois could go to a BCS bowl and Missouri is the least experienced team in the country. These two have met in St Louis each of the last 3 years with the Tigers winning by an avg of 38-30 and covering all 3 by just 2 ppg. Illinois has veteran senior QB Juice Williams and one of the most explosive offenses in the country along with a much improved defense. Missouri has an untested QB after Chase Daniel led them to all 3 wins over Illinois and just 9 starters back. History says Missouri but this year’s talent says Illinois is the stronger team and gets a more comfortable win than expected. FORECAST: Illinois 37 Missouri 23

OTHER SELECTIONS
2H Georgia (+) over OKLAHOMA ST - This is one of the best non-conf games of the year. Georgia is a much stronger team in odd numbered years under Richt as they tend to be undervalued and that was the case in 2007 when they were just -6 at home vs Oklahoma St in the opener. OSU was the popular upset pick yet Georgia delivered for us on these pages with a 35-14 win and had a 376-266 yard edge. OSU is once again the trendy pick this year and is loaded on offense with the return of their “triplets” in QB Robinson, RB Hunter and WR Bryant. They also have an improved D with the addition of DC Bill Young. Georgia loses their star QB Stafford and RB Moreno to the NFL and this will be a hostile setting for young QB Cox. HC Mark Richt is an amazing 30-4 in opposing teams stadiums. UGA has opened on the road only once in his tenure and that was in 2003 when they beat Clemson 30-0 but that was with a 3rd year starting QB. Richt has been an AD just 3 times in 4 years and has won all 3 outright (avg cover 18.6 ppg). Georgia has the edge at the line of scrimmage and our #9 D (OSU #36). OSU did avg 555 ypg at home last year and is 7-1 as a HF with their avg cover by 14.4 ppg and their only non-cover by a half point. FORECAST: Georgia (+) 28 OKLAHOMA ST 27

2H WISCONSIN over N Illinois - Wisconsin has won 13 straight Camp Randall openers by an avg of 20 ppg. The Badgers are off a 7-6 season and have just 11 returning starters but are under some pressure after 10 losses the last two years when Badger fans were expecting BCS. Last year NIll was a veteran squad with 21 ret sts and this year have just 11 back. NIll has lost 5 straight openers to BCS teams but only lost by 14 ppg to the 4 from the Big Ten. In 2007 UW did roll to a 44-3 win here but that was late in the year vs an injury ravaged team. Northern’s emphasis should be staying healthy here and last year Wisky could have mauled Akron but gave up a cheap TD at the end of the 1H and a garbage TD with :38 left and only won by 21 (-26’) and won’t be as generous here. FORECAST: WISCONSIN 41 N Illinois 17

2H Navy (+) over OHIO ST - These two last met in a rain soaked 1981 Liberty Bowl. Ohio St has covered 5 straight home openers but this time has a massive game against USC on deck. Last year the week before USC they trailed going into the 4Q vs Ohio as a 33’ pt favorite. OSU is 5-10 ATS vs non-conf and Navy is 6-3 ATS in road openers. OSU lost 2 LB’s and 2 CB’s to the NFL and projected starter Moeher, but still has a very athletic defensive front 7. Last year Navy had just 12 FD’s vs Pitt and 11 vs ND and in both games got the majority of their yards and pts vs the backups. OSU lost RB Wells prior to USC so they probably won’t take chances late and if their minds wander ahead to USC, the Mids will keep trying until the end and could get some big plays. They are 14-4 ATS as an AD. FORECAST: Navy 17 (+) OHIO ST 31

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 184-130. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 32 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is the first Underdog Play for the 2009 season:Take an 8-5 Big East team that won its bowl 38-20 over the MAC Champs and pit them against a lowly 4-8 MAC team to beat and note that the Big East tm won their only previous meeting 37-19 in ‘02 and you would expect the BE team a 2 or 3 TD favorite. Delving a little deeper we see an upset here. Ohio is 5-1 SU in home openers and knocked off Pitt here in Solich’s 1st year. Ohio is a team that opened 0-4 LY but could easily have been 4-0 at that point which would have made them an 8-4 team instead of 4-8. OU is 11-6 ATS at home. Last year UC needed OT to get past MAC member Temple on the road. Ohio only has NT on deck and should be sky high while UC will be looking ahead to NCar and Baylor the next 2 weeks. While UC is a veteran group they lose their star off player in Donald Brown (2,083 rush) and the ret skill players combined (incl the QB) do not equal his numbers. OU was an injury plagued team in ‘08 and that makes them even more exp than their 14 ret sts. FORECAST: OHIO (+) 23 Connecticut 20

KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX

Troy (-7) over @Bowling Green Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

After being arguably the most dangerous mid-major conference back in the Michael Turner/Ben Roethlisberger era, The MAC has slipped in recent years. Ball State and Central Michigan have been the best programs over the past couple of years but have struggled when stepping up against decent non-conference competition. Meanwhile the Sun Belt has come on strong. Programs like MTSU, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Arkansas State and some of the Louisiana schools are taking a step up. Really, everyone except conference newby Western Kentucky seems to be on the upswing. And there’s no doubt that the leader of this league is the Troy Trojans. They’ve been putting players in the NFL for a few years as Larry Blakeney has done a great coaching job over the years bringing this program up from the lower divisions to actually participate in bowl games. Not only is there some solid player development going on at Troy, butthe Trojans seem to get some guys who have SEC athleticism but maybe get into a spot of trouble, lack grades, etc. “We have a lot of weapons,” says Coach Blakeney. In a conference that is coming on, the Trojans have 8 preseason All-Sun Belt first teamers, 5 on offense and 3 on defense. They also have the best special teamsplay in the league, not only in their specialists but in the athleticism of the guys who are on the field during puntsand kickoffs as well. The talent is excellent in a very talented part of the country. Troy has 5 defenders on the Lombardi Award watch list, and 9 players in all on preseason watch lists. Tonight Troy opens the season against a far less talented team, the Bowling Green Falcons, who were 6-6 last year. Bowling Green has a new coach in Dave Clawson, who had some success at the 1-AA level at Richmond and ironically was the coach of outstanding Troy QB Levi Brown before Brown transferred from Richmond. but was unsuccessful in his one year as a 1-A coach as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator last year. He’s instituting a more run basedoffense and Shane Steffy, a veteran guard talked about how they have to do more than just pass block now.There are some spread components but this is a new offense under a new staff. On the other side of the ball, only 3 starting defenders return under new coaching. Expect a steep learning curve. Troy has 5 defenders on the Lombardi Award watch list,and 9 players in all on preseason watch lists, in addition to those 8 players on the first team preseason All-Sun Belt team. The MAC doesn’t have a preseason all-conference team, but BGSU has only two players on MAC site Vandelay Sports first team All-MAC and zero players in the first two teams on Phil Steele’s All-MAC team. Troy has more stability in the coaching staff and their systems, better players, and much better speed. Don’t be surprised if the far superior Trojans go up to Bowling Green and lay one onthe Falcons. Troy by 14

Navy (+22) over @Ohio State Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare

If there was any concern whether Ken Niumatalolo could follow Paul Johnson's success at Navy was laid to rest. Navy's flexbone attack was tops in the nation logging 292 yards per game, the nation's best mark and the Middiesattended their sixth consecutive bowl game. Navy did lose7 of their top 11 starters from the 2008 offense. But thatkind of turnover is common at the service academies, and the Midshipmen's coaching staff has plenty of experience running the offense responsible for the team's success. While the most experienced QB was lost to graduation, sophomore Ricky Dobbs played enough to gain 495 yardson the ground and has the best arm Navy has seen in some years. Niumatalolo has promised more aerial attack, and if Dobbs can master the flexbone triple option reads aswell as his predecessors the Middies will continue to be one of the nation's better offenses. Jim Tressel has faced the flexbone attack just once that Ican find. As coach of Youngstown State he squared off against Paul Johnson's Georgia Southern team in 1999 for the Div-1 AA championship. Georgia Southern won big, 59-24 in a game that was just as close as the scoreboard would indicate. The Eagles racked up 639 rushing yards on 61 carries. I've seen some of the highlights of that game,and as you might imagine the YSU defense had trouble justfiguring out who had the ball. The Ohio State offense is still in some flux after QB Terrelle Pryor's first season. While Pryor's physical gifts are undeniable, the question of justhow to use them is still a mystery in Columbus. In 2008 the spread attack, the veer, and a little bit of Nevada's Pistol offense saw use. Pryor did not fare well making the right option reads in the veer, the offensive line hadtrouble pass blocking out of the spread, and the Pistol is a tough scheme to use on a part-time basis. Scoring did improve late in the season, but the 24-21 loss to Texas in the Fiesta Bowl revealed just how far Pryor must go to become a polished player. He completed just 5 of 13 passes, and his most successful plays were scrambles when either the pass protection broke down or he couldn'tdecide where to throw the ball. There isn't anything on my technical radar screen favoring either team in this game. First game out of the box is always weak on the technical front no matter the sport. Jim Tressel has been kind to inferior opponents; the Buckeyes are just 3-8 ATS in his tenure as faves of -20 or more versus non-conference opponents. If you have to play Navy, its best to do it in a bowl game when you've gotlots of time to prepare. Next best would be in the first game so that preparation doesn't have to be rushed. If you troll the OSU fan sites you'll find that "Buck Nuts" are quite happy not to be seeing in-state FCS opponent Youngstown State to open the season again, as they have the last 2 years. But with a game against USC on deck it’s hard to see how the Middies can command OSU's full attention. Navy has no chance to win, but I'll put my money on the team whose raw QB is being guided into a successfulsystem by experienced coaches. Ohio State by only 17.

Georgia (+5½) over @Oklahoma State Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

Like the direction Oklahoma State is going in as a program, but we’re amazed at the level of attention they’re getting. We were a little ahead of things when we called for them to be one of the most improved teams in America in our annual two years ago but they have gone from little noticed to a very respectable program. QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendell Hunter, and WR Dez Bryant may very well prove to be the best “Triplet” combination in college football, and all seem destined to put up big numbers again this season. But the defense wasn’t much better than decent last season, and has never been much of a force. Veteran DC Bill Young comes in from Miami to run the show here after Tim Beckman left for the head job at Toledo. There’s been a lot of hype about this team, and Mike Gundy put a “media blackout” for the 12 days before this game, citing distractions. But the distractions continue. Orie Lemon, the #2 tackler for the ‘Pokes last year, tore an ACL in practice on Monday and TE Jamal Mosley, listed as a starter on the team’s depth chart for the UGA game, left the program suddenly this week, probably as a result of a domestic incident. A starting CB was arrested for driving without a license last week, but will play. The exact opposite has been the case at Georgia. After years of legal problems in the summers, the Bulldogs have been quiet as church mice. This team disappointed last season, but 10-3 isn’t the worst season in the world. In the spring the players talked about how they were all standing around ready for Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno to make plays. And while top draft picks are always missed, there are a lot of players who know they need to step up. The talent level here is never a questionand RB Richard Samuel has exploded on the scene in practice, with defenders lauding how difficult it is to tackle him. QB Joe Cox is a steady hand who’s teammates rave about. Chances are he’d be a veteran star if he wasn’t stuck behind Stafford. The line and receiver positions are absolutely loaded. And the defense had some poor games last year but has some outstanding talent, notably LB Rennie Curran and immovable DT Geno Atkins. This team is 30-4 in road games under Richt, with multiple wins at some of the toughest venues in the SEC.This is a role reversal from what you expect in a Georgia/Oklahoma State game. Everybody’s talking about Oklahoma State, yet they’re a team with very little successful big game experience and a ton of pressure on them. The preseason hype for Florida has Georgia focused and ready for the season. No problem taking to the road for a big game for these Bulldogs and an outright upset would not surprise in the least. Georgia by 3.

Illinois -7 over Missouri @St. Louis, MO Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

This is not my preferred role for a Ron Zook-coached team and I’ll readily admit that I often knee-jerk to the points in a rivalry matchup, especially when one coach has dominated this rivalry lately, as Gary Pinkel has won four straight over the Illini, with the last two coming over Zook inexciting games the last two seasons. However, this appears to be a reasonable number to lay with what these two teams have returning from last season, not only on the field, but also on the sidelines. Illinois does lose former OC Mike Locksley, but replaces him with a veteran in former TCU OC Mike Schultz. Missouri must replace both of their highly regarded coordinators, both of whom were withPinkel since he came over from Toledo 9 years ago. They promoted from within, but the two replacements have one year of combined collegiate experience at the coordinator positions between them (and that one year came at a Division III school in the mid 1990’s). They are definitely unproven commodities at this time, and have only 9 returning starters to work with this season. Among those not returning for the Tigers include record-setting QB Chase Daniel, and a number of NFL draft picks on both sides of the ball, including one of the nation’s best players in WR/KR Jeremy Maclin. There is some talent on hand, but these two and others such as DT Ziggy Hood (tearing it up with the Steelers in the preseason) were special players, and it will be interesting to see how their replacements fare. This is not USC we are talking about here, and the feeling is that there will be a big dropoff, especially early on as the two new coordinators get comfortable in their roles. The Illini return an excellent offensive bunch including SR QB Juice Williams, who will be focused here in his last chance to beat Mizzou. Really like having the senior on our side going against a sophomore (MU’s Blaine Gabbert) making his first start in a rivalry game. His main weapon, WR Arrelious Benn, also returns as do several other key pieces on offense. The defense returns only 5 starters, but that is a bit misleading, as the front 7 is very deep with players who have played a lot the last two seasons. Ron Zook is a very good motivator, and this game has been marked on the Illini’s calendar since last season’s loss. For the first time since he became UI’s head coach, he has the better, more experienced team, and with big things expected in Champaign this season, this game is imperative for the Illini. The more experienced team pulls away in the second half. UI by 13

LSU (-17) over @Washington Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

LSU seems to be the forgotten team in the SEC heading into the 2009 season. Most opinions have the Tigers the 4thbest team in the conference behind Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi. But I disagree, and think LSU will surprise a lot of people and be in the thick of things at season’s end. There’s no doubt that LSU was an overall big disappointment in 2008 with an 8-5 record after going an incredible 34-6 over the first three years of the Les Miles era. So after the subpar season, Miles revamped his coaching staff and made one of the best hires in all of college football. He nabbed former Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis who is one of the best in the business. Chavis will make the Tigers a very formidable defense, and he’ll erase the memory of last year’s 27 points per game allowed; an unheard of number for LSU. Chavis is a great game planner, and his tricky schemes really confuse opponents. This LSU defense will be tough to score upon with Chavis now calling the shots. LSU’s offense was a mess last year. They got terrible quarterback play after losing stud Ryan Perrilloux to off-field trouble in the spring. Miles was then forced to play an inexperienced redshirt freshman in Jarrett Lee and a castoff transfer from Harvard in Andrew Hatch. Both were downright awful with 17 interceptions combined to just 16TD passes. So Miles had to turn things over to true freshman Jordan Jefferson after Lee and Hatch suffered injuries. And after getting his feet wet in the last two games, Jefferson blossomed in the Chick-fil-A bowl game.Reports out of camp say that Jefferson’s development has progressed, and Miles is extremely confident in him. The running game will be solid once again with Charles Scott back after rushing for 1,174 yards (# 5 in the country) and 18 touchdowns. The Tigers have a bevy of talent at the skill positions, and that talent will allow Jefferson to have a breakout year and lead LSU to big things.Washington’s football program sunk deep under Tyrone Willingham. The Huskies went an abysmal 11-37 over his four years, and hit rock bottom in 2008 after going winlessat 0-12. In desperation, Washington opened the checkbook and spent big bucks in hiring former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and the rest of the overhauled coaching staff. Sarkisian comes in well regarded, but former Southern Cal coaches have not been successful after leaving the Trojans for whatever reason. Despite the 18 returning starters including dual threat quarterback Jake Locker, the Huskies are overmatched here in their home opener. LSU just lays over Washington talent wise, andLes Miles always has his team ready out of the gate. The Tigers have won their four season openers under Miles by a combined 166-47 for an average win margin of 30 pointsper game. Since Miles arrived in Baton Rouge in 2005, LSU has gone 12-4-1 against the spread vs. out of conference opponents. While Washington will be more competitive throughout 2009, they are simply out-classed here. LSU by 24

RED SHEET

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

AUBURN 34 - Louisiana Tech 13 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 13½, and is now minus 13.
As noted earlier, the Tigers are in off their first losing season since '99, ending a string of 8
consecutive bowl campaigns. But note 4 losses by 4 pts or less - 3 to eventual bowl squads.
And five straight pressure packed games (decided by total of 11 pts) took its toll in their
futile stretch run, which wound up with a 36-0 wipeout loss at Alabama, which was perfect,
at the time. Thus Tuberville was replaced with Chizik, who has installed a brilliant staff.
This program has been too steady to take '08 as anything but an anomoly. Tech's fine '08
campaign & 16 starters only serves to keep the spot in close sight. Bouceback!
RATING: AUBURN 89

TEXAS A&M 41 - New Mexico 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at TexasA&M mius 7, and is how minus 14. An
example of the extremely opening week line volitility is the TD movement on this contest.
We originally figured the Lobos to stay under the spot, as has been their custom over the
recent years. But gone is their mainstay on the sidelines, namely Rocky Long, who was the
architect of their respectability. But even with Rocky, NewMexico failed to top 10 pts in 4 of
its last 6 games, finished with the 78th rated "O", & has said good-bye to all-time leading
rusher Moore. The Aggies, like Auburn above, are in off a disastrous campaign, with a
terrible "D", but have 16 returning starters, & explosiveness to do this up one right.
RATING: TEXAS A&M 89

Georgia 29 - OKLAHOMA STATE 27 - (3:30) -- Line opened at OklahomaState minus 6, and is now minus
5½. Respected sources have convinced us that the 'Dawgs are the team to back in this
one, after earlier tabling of this contest. As noted on Pointwise, the Cowboys are again
figured among the best ball movers in the nation, as the triumverate of QB Robinson, RB
Hunter, & WR Bryant seem nearly unstoppable, to which their 245 RYpg & 242 PYpg stats
of a year ago attest. But that defense is another matter, allowing 53 ppg in 3 of their last 4
contests, & enter on an 0-4 ATS run, after a jaw-dropping 8-0 spread start. 'Dawgs excel in
this spot, with current 8-1 log as road dogs, & dismantled 'Pokes in '07. Upset.
RATING: GEORGIA 88

TENNESSEE 48 - Western Kentucky 10 - (12:20) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 27, and is now minus
29½. Welcome to the Vegas Rotation, Hilltoppers. We've been mining gold against such
newcomers for years, so why not again? The fact of the matter is that the Vols, much like
Auburn & TexasA&M, are in off a terrible campaign, following a 10-win season in '07, finishing
5-7, after standing at 3-7 before winding up with a couple of decent showings. Not
enough to save Fulmer's job, despite his taking them to the heights in his 16 years at the
helm. The 'Toppers are green (to say the least) along the defensive line, with zero returning
starters. Look for rebounding Vols to take advantage with a romper.
RATING: TENNESSEE 88

Virginia Tech 22 - Alabama 20 - (8:00 @ Georgia Dome) -- Line opened at Alabama minus 6, and isnow
minus 6½. The Tide sure began the '08 season with a shocker, taking Clemson apart to the
tune of 34-10, as a 4½ pt dog. And it continued straight thru to their showdown loss to
Florida in the SEC title game, & followup no-show embarrassment vs Utah in the Sugar
Bowl, allowing 31 pts in each of those failure. But they held 7 regular season foes to 10 pts
or less, & return 9 returning starters to that unit. But the Hokies counter with 16 returning
starters, allowed <11 ppg in their last 5 games, & are a superb dog (14-4 ATS).
RATING: VIRGINIA TECH 88

ARIZONA 26 - Central Michigan 20 - (10:00) -- Line opened at Arizona minus 12, and is now minus 13½.
As noted earlier, the Chips of Central are again led by the brilliant LeFevour at QB, who has
led them to 3 consecutive bowl games, throwing for 11,702 yds & 74 TDs, as well as another
32 scores rushing. As if that weren't enough, his receiving corps returns its top 3
starters. So plenty of fireworks again. Sure, the 'Cats have always been solid on "D", &
should be again, but another matter on "O", as they have to replace Tuitama at QB. He has
been their "do-everything" guy, so a definite gap to fill. Chips as 2-TD dogs the play.
RATING: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Tulsa, Oklahoma, UCLA, Rice, Cincinnati, Ohio University, & Army

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): TexasA&M (-7 to -14); NorthTexas (+23 to +16½); Notre Dame (-10 to -14); UTEP (-4½ to -8); Illinois (-3 to -6½); BYU (+25 to +22); UAB (-2½ to -5½); Minnesota (-3½ to -6½); Idaho (+6 to +3); Troy -4½ to -7); Navy (+24 to +21½); Wisconsin (-14 to -16½); SanJoseSt (+37 to +34½); UCLA (-17 to -19½); Tennessee (-27 to -29½); NCSt (-3 to -5); UtahSt (+22½ to +20); Toledo (+12½ to +10½); Stanford (-14½ to -16½); La-Monroe (+43 to +41); Oregon (+5½ to +4); Ohio U (+5 to +3½); Kentucky (-13½ to -15); Arizona (-12 to -13½); MiddleTennessee (+21 to +19½); Memphis (+17½ to+16) - TIME CHANGES: None Since Sunday -

KEY INJURIES: Alabama RB Ingram (suspension) probable;BostonCollege QB Shinskie (ribs) ??; Buffalo RB Starks (shoulder) out for season); BYU QB Hall (finger) probable; Kentucky RB/WR Cobb (back) probable; OregonSt QB Moevao (leg) ??; South Florida RB
Ford (suspension) out; TexasTech RB Batch (elbow) out; VirginiaTech Rb Evans (ACL) out...

CKO

11 CENTRAL MICHIGAN over *Arizona
Late Score Forecast:
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 23 - *Arizona 24
(at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX)

Central Michigan HC Butch Jones is building a MAC powerhouse at Mt. Pleasant. The Chippewas, who own thebest recruiting class in the MAC, have 10 regulars back on defense and figure to improve considerably with 11upperclassmen starting on the stop unit. Little needs to be said about QB Dan LeFevour, who completed69% last season and has thrown for 74 touchdowns and run for an additional 32 scores in his CMU career. His top three targets return, and they combined for 199 catches LY. Arizona is retooling at QB, and running game keyed by Grigsby & Antolin might not be as effective without graduated QB Tuitama (65%, 3088 YP, 23 TDs LY), and with top returning receivers TE Gronkowski (47 recs.) and WR Dean (53) possibly limping from camp injuries.

10 OKLAHOMA over Byu
Late Score Forecast:
OKLAHOMA 43 - Byu 10

Yes, there is a concern that the rebuilt Oklahoma OL (four new starters) could have some problems against the veteran, stunting BYU 3-4 defense, especially sr. DEs Jan Jorgensen & Brett Denney. However, a similarconcern exists on the Cougar side as well, with BYU having lost its starting LT & LG to season-ending injuries,meaning the Cougars have zero returning starters in their forward wall vs. the deep OU defense thatwas fourth in the nation in sacks LY. HC Bob Stoops wants his no-huddle offense (716 points LY, most inNCAA history) to execute even faster TY, and insiders in Norman say Heisman Trophy-winning QB SamBradford (50 TDs, 8 ints. LY; merdifully benched in second halves of blowouts) has taken to thechallenge. Sooners 12-4 vs. the spread their last 16 on the board (12-2, when excluding bowl games).

10 MIDDLE TENNESSEE over *Clemson
Late Score Forecast:
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 24 - *Clemson 31

Sun Belt sources have alerted us to keep our eyes on underrated MTSU bunch that has seamlessly adapted toprogressive first-year o.c. Tony Franklin and his advanced spread formations. Franklin weaved similar magicafew years ago at Troy, and word is that dynamic jr. QB Dasher appears to be the perfect triggermanfornew-look Blue Raider attack that should help Murfreesboro crew punch above its weight inDeath Valley.And small but quick Blue Raider “D” not likely to get overrun by new-look Clemson “O” in itsownadjustment phase with RS frosh QB Parker making first career start.

10 *MEMPHIS over Ole Miss
Late Score Forecast:
*MEMPHIS 26 - Ole Miss 31

CKO sources firmly believe C-USA contender Memphis not getting sufficient respect from oddsmakers, considering Tigers won 6 of their final 9 regular season games LY (including Southern Miss upset), coinciding with the emergence of swift juco RB Curtis Steele (1123 YR, 7 TDs), who only had 15 carries for 83 yds. in his debut at Ole Miss LY. And Memphis’ sr. QB Hall (57%, 2,275 YP, 11 TDs) itching to hook up with his sure-handed, tall WRs for full 4 Qs after getting knocked out with an injury LY. So, Tigers should hang tough in this intense, underdogoriented series (dog 4-2 last 6), which will sadly be interrupted for at least two years since the Rebel A.D. felt series was getting too “stale.” Morever, the fortified Tiger defense (with jucos & highly-regarded SEC transfers) won’t be overwhelmed by Ole Miss’ all-star QB Jevan Sneed and mates, especially since Memphis now has strategy to counteract the surpising “wildcat formation” unleashed for 1st time in ‘08. Last year, Tiger mentor Tommy West claimed his team wasn’t emotionally ready to play, but with Ole Miss suddenly dropping out of series, not the case TY.

10 *COLORADO over Colorado State
Late Score Forecast:
*COLORADO 34 over Colorado State 13

Colorado’s 38-17 victory over CSU in 2008 took place at neutral Mile High Stadium in Denver, with the Buffaloes out-rushing the Rams 153-71. That rush edge could be even bigger TY, with the game in Boulder, CU owning a plethora of talented & seasoned RBs, and Colorado State rebuilding virtually its entire defensive front seven.Moreover, Ram HC Farris was disappointed in his QBs most of spring and much of August, before naming 6-2 sr. Grant Stucker, who is 3 of 5 passing in his four career appearances. Therefore, must count on more-experienced Buffalo signal callers Hawkins & Hansen—even with their own limitations—to have greater success. The intensity of this rivalry should not be underestimated. But host CU appears to hold important firepower edges in this year’s clash.