Week 1 Newsletters

WINNING POINTS

****BEST BET
MEMPHIS over MISSISSIPPI* by 6
Yes, this is the SEC vs. Conference USA. But in a series in which Memphis has
out-scored Ole Miss by 10 points over the last five years, going 2-3 SU and never
losing by more than four points, this back-yard rivalry is much closer than those
conference affiliations behind the programs. And with some serious matchup
advantages to the underdog it is difficult to see the favored Rebels even winning
here, much less getting any kind of margin. The key for the Tigers is a WR corps
that not only has plenty of talent and experience (there are seven returnees that
caught at least 19 passes last year), but also NFL-size; four of the top contributors
are 6-3 or taller, keyed by 6-8 Carlos Singleton, one of the best red-zone threats in
the nation (11 TD catches last year). That group can exploit a small Mississippi
secondary that does not have anyone taller than 5-11 on the two-deep, which
means plenty of open targets for Arkelon Hall in his first start as Tiger QB. And
while Houston Nutt would like to be able to shade his secondary a bit with a good
pass rush that is not in the cards either, with attrition already taking All-SEC DE
Greg Hardy, along with DT Peria Jerry and NT Ted Laurent, out of the Rebel rotation.
That makes it easy for a veteran Memphis OL to control the line of scrimmage
and ease their new QB into the flow of the game. Note that the Tigers led
30-19 in 1st downs and 467-275 in total offense of last year’s 23-21 loss in the
series, which says much about the balance of talent. MEMPHIS 33-27.

***BEST BET
ALABAMA over CLEMSON by 7 (Atlanta)
There are two ways to remember Nick Saban’s first season at Alabama. An optimist
can talk about how the Crimson Tide did not lose a single game by more than a
TD despite facing eight bowl opponents during the regular season, including
absolute point-blank defeats vs. Georgia and LSU in a pair of games that were literally
decided at the gun. A pessimist can say that going 7-6 and losing to ULMonroe
is hardly Alabama football. The truth is much more in the former camp,
with the Tide doing a lot of things right in what was mostly a transition season,
and now in the second go-round with the new coach and new playbooks we can
expect much more polish, the kind that could have turned several of those close
2007 defeats into victories. As such the opportunity to back them in an underdog
role vs. a team from a much weaker conference is hard to pass up. Although
Clemson has some “pretty” talent in the skill positions that has led to high expectations,
remember that this is the same Tiger offense that could only manage 12
first downs and 293 yards in that bowl loss to Auburn, and that includes an overtime
possession. Now the Tigers have to break in an almost all-new OL, with only
one starter back, no seniors, and five freshmen in the two-deep. That makes it difficult
to get untracked vs. this class of defense, while their own DL, without key
DT Rashaad Jackson, will also lose the battle in the trenches. An underdog that
wins the line of scrimmage wins the game here. ALABAMA 27-20.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
**PREFERRED
Buffalo* over U.T.E.P. by 14 (Thursday)
Slowly but surely Turner Gill is making progress at Buffalo, with some solid
recruiting classes adding some speed and athleticism, and now a veteran cast in the
skill positions to execute the finer points keyed by QB Drew Willy (68.4% completions
last year, no interceptions in his final 235 attempts). It means that this
opener brings a higher level of optimism than usual, and against an opponent that
brings issues in terms of both cohesion and focus, the intensity of the Bulls can get
this one. The Miners have been slowly going downhill under Mike Price after he
inherited a veteran cast in his debut campaign, and now there are five new assistant
coaches, most on defense trying to put in those new 3-3-5 schemes. Making
the transition even more difficult is a lack of talent. But the real issue for Price is
keeping his Miners from being too distracted by next week’s major home showdown
vs. Texas, a rarity for the program. They can not win that one, of course, but
they do not know that. BUFFALO 38-24.

Rice* over S.M.U. by 14 (Friday)
The move of June Jones to S.M.U. is creating a lot of attention, including the
ESPN cameras showing up for his debut. It has also led to the oddsmakers setting
this one in a rather short range, assuming that the public buys into the notion of
Jones turning the downtrodden Mustangs around. That may happen, later, but for
now we may see a team actually get worse before they can get better, the usual
result when a young and inexperienced team that lacks a winning history has to
adjust to new systems. Exacerbating matters is that freshmen Bo Levi Mitchell and
Braden Smith will be sharing the snaps at QB, which means zero experience not
only in running the Jones playbook, but also in working with their teammates in
the WR corps. The Owls see plenty of spread tactics in Conference USA, which
helps to set their own game plan, and Chase Clement is the kind of veteran that
can take control of this one in the latter stages, especially against a Mustang defense
that returns only four starters. RICE 41-27.

Nebraska* over Western Michigan by 2
Bo Pelini looks like a good fit in Lincoln, and should be able to gradually turn
around that mistake that was the Bill Callahan regime. But the oddsmakers are
putting the cart before the horse. There will need to be major changes in both personnel
and attitude to turn around a defense that allowed more points, yards and
first downs than any in the history of the program, while also generating only 11
takeaways. Half of their 2007 opponents scored at least 40 points, and now an
entirely new LB corps has to make plays against a balanced Bronco attack that will
test their mettle. Having been to Florida State, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa and
Virginia (twice) in recent years, there is no culture shock in Lincoln for Bill Cubit’s
squad, and while the Broncos also bring disappointing defensive numbers from LY,
note that much of that could be attributed to a completely new scheme, and opening
against some of the best offenses in the nation. With nine starters back that
unit will show genuine improvement. NEBRASKA 30-28.

Pittsburgh* over Bowling Green by 25
The pieces are in place for a real statement to be made in Dave Wannstedt’s fourth
campaign in Pittsburgh, and an off-season that was buoyed from that confidence
boost of winning in Morgantown to close last year can lead to a burst from the gate
here. We will buy in early, and get ahead of the game before the oddsmakers catch
up. The defense was already playing at a special level last year, and in LeSean
McCoy and LaRod Stephens-Howling there were a couple of outstanding runners.
What the Panthers lacked was any semblance of a passing attack, which could have
made a difference in the four games that were lost by four points or less. But add
QB Bill Stull and WR Derek Kinder to the mix and it becomes an entirely different
attack. That is bad news for an under-sized Bowling Green defense that had an
entirely different off-season, reeling from the stunning embarrassment of that 63-
7 bowl humiliation vs. Tulsa. It does not get much better here against a physical
opponent that will wear them down at the point of attack. PITTSBURGH 41-16

Miami O.* over Vanderbilt by 1 (Thursday)
The class difference between the conferences showed in a 24-13 Commodore
home win last year, when they controlled the line of scrimmage to a 290-26 rushing
count. But now the OL is entirely new, forcing an uninspiring QB rotation to
make something happen on the road. And a home date vs. South Carolina next
Thursday provides an additional distraction. MIAMI O. 20-19.

South Carolina* over N. C. State by 14 (Thursday)
This will be Steve Spurrier’s best team yet in Columbia, but it is the defense that
will key the way early, not the offense under developing QB Tommy Beecher. But
that veteran stop unit can create havoc for inexperienced Wolfpack QB Russell
Wilson, as Tom O’Brien gambles in his opener. SOUTH CAROLINA 30-16.

Wake Forest over Baylor* by 10 (Thursday)
We like Art Briles as a fit for Baylor, and some of the assistants that he has brought
on board. While the transitions will take time, they hang around here against an
opponent that will not physically dominate them. WAKE FOREST 34-24.

Stanford* over Oregon State by 1 (Thursday)
Not quite the usual Pac 10 affair here, with playmakers in short supply and uninspiring
QB play from both sides. But the opportunities are there for the Cardinal
to run the ball against that rebuilt Beaver front seven, and you can steal a win at
home that way. STANFORD 21-20.

Troy over Middle Tennessee* by 4 (Thursday)
Blue Raiders were an injury riddled side, including the absence of mercurial QB
Dwight Dasher, when they were embarrassed 45-7 on the Trojan turf last year. But
with only 10 seniors on the roster, is the leadership there for the late stages of a
close game? TROY 31-27.

Temple over Army* by 10 (Friday)
Owls won as many games LY as in the previous four seasons, and now return 21
starters and both kickers. That means the kind of continuity to get out of the gate
well. Cadets are an awful -29 in turnovers the past two seasons. Remember when
we used to play them because they were fundamentally sound? TEMPLE 30-20.

*CLOSE CALLS

Michigan* over Utah by 1
The Utes are tough enough in the trenches to not get pushed around at the line of
scrimmage, and in Brian Johnson the also have the kind of QB to run the spread
that Rich Rodriguez could only wish he had. MICHIGAN 23-22.

Northwestern* over Syracuse by 16
We are unaccustomed to dealing with the Wildcats in this kind of chalk range, but
in theory their spread attack should wreak havoc on those inexperienced Syracuse
LB and DB corps, especially with Tyrell Sutton fully healthy again. But is there a
killer instinct? NORTHWESTERN 37-21.

Wyoming* over Ohio by 8
Cowboys managed to beat the Bobcats on the road last year despite a -3 turnover
differential, which means something to us. But do they bring their “A” game here
with a major revenge affair vs. Air Force to open conference play next week?
WYOMING 27-19.

Wisconsin* over Akron by 29
With only a home game vs. Marshall on deck the Badgers lack distractions, which
means that their physical ground game can wear out that 3-3-5 Akron defense that
lacks the personnel and the schemes to cope. WISCONSIN 42-13.

Oregon* over Washington by 11
Jake Locker is showing the kind of progress that could have him back to full health
by the time this one kicks off, giving the Huskies a significant edge at the QB position.
But is that the only one that they have? OREGON 34-23.

Tulsa over U.A.B.* by 17
The type of complex offensive schemes that the Golden Hurricanes run can be a
disaster for a defense that is relying on too many JuCo transfers, which means
chemistry and cohesion issues. And the experience at the other skill positions helps
Tulsa to ease their own QB transition. TULSA 41-24.

T.C.U. over New Mexico* by 10
This has a chance to be the best offense Gary Patterson has had in Fort Worth, and
perhaps the best LB corps. That latter group can make some plays vs. a re-built
New Mexico OL that can be prone to mental mistakes vs. blitzes. T.C.U. 27-17

Mississippi State over Louisiana Tech* by 11
Tech is putting a lot of hope on Taylor Bennett (Georgia Tech transfer) stepping
right in at QB, but he gets a rude baptism here against a State defense that brings
plenty of speed, depth, and orneriness. MISSISSIPPI STATE 27-16.

Boston College over Kent by 12 (Cleveland)
Golden Flashes saw injuries leave the cupboard bare enough for an 0-7 SU and
ATS slide to close 2007, including outright losses to Buffalo and Temple. That
means precious little confidence to begin this season, and also some culture shock
against that outstanding Eagle defensive front. BOSTON COLLEGE 28-16.

Oklahoma State over Washington State by 4 (Seattle)
With major transitions for both sides on defense (JuCo transfers for the Cowboys;
the new schemes of Paul Wulff for the Cougars), this ultimately gets decided by the
more polished and experienced O.S.U. skill players. OKLAHOMA STATE 31-27.

Minnesota* over Northern Illinois by 4
Although it is Big 10 vs. M.A.C., not sure the talent gap is all that wide here, with
the Huskies seeing their 2007 season get derailed by injuries, many of which cost
them some close games (0-5 in outcomes decided by five points or less). MINNESOTA
31-27.

Florida* over Hawaii by 36
Although hosting Miami next week can call for Urban Meyer to back off the pedal
a bit here, remember that he also is working on another Heisman for Tim Tebow,
and that means enough activity to get the requisite stats. They could find the end
zone on every series that he is in the game. FLORIDA 49-13.

Virginia Tech over East Carolina* by 6 (Charlotte)
Pirates are a scrappy 17-6 ATS as underdogs the last three seasons, including a solid
cover in this series at Blacksburg last year Not easy for the Hokies to get much of
a margin with injuries and inexperience limiting their RB and WR corps. VIRGINIA
TECH 26-20.

Missouri over Illinois by 6 (St. Louis)
Oddsmakers are pricing the Tigers like the talent gap is wider than we believe it to
be. But not in a hurry to buck a team with a chip on their shoulder, after they beat
the Illinois last year, yet had to watch them in the Rose Bowl after their own non-
BCS season had come to an end. MISSOURI 33-27.

California* over Michigan State by 1
Bears have been a long-term over-rated item, now sitting at 14-26-1 ATS in their
last 41 on the board, and for once are in a serious rebuilding mode at the RB and
WR corps, which has been the strength of the offense in recent campaigns.
Balanced Spartan offense will find room as Cal switches to those new 3-4 schemes
on defense. CALIFORNIA 28-27.

Southern Cal over Virginia* by 22
It looks like Mark Sanchez will be healthy enough to get the start at QB for the
Trojans, but the bottom line is that their #3 at the position might be better than
any passer on the Cavalier roster. That is true of other positions as well. SOUTHERN
CAL 34-12.

Arizona* over Idaho by 31
With only a home game vs. Toledo on deck, and with Mike Stoops feeling some
genuine pressure this season, the Wildcats may be more inclined to go for the jugular
in a setting like this than another program. ARIZONA 45-14.

U.N.L.V.* over Utah State by 11
Brent Guy and Mike Sanford both enter this one at 6-29 SU, but at least the latter
has some pieces to build with. Maybe not enough to be coaching the Rebels in
2009, but enough to get past an Aggie squad that just does not show any reasons
for optimism. U.N.L.V. 27-16.

Indiana* over Western Kentucky by 17
We welcome the Hilltoppers as a board item, and it is worth noting that Dave
Elson has been doing a lot of things on schedule in five years with the program,
including red-shirting a lot of freshmen in recent campaigns to build some depth.
INDIANA 37-20.

Auburn* over UL-Monroe by 23
Tommy Tuberville is supplied with a subtle motivational tool here, with ULMonroe
having gone to Alabama and won outright last year. But expect some
awkward moments for the Tigers offensively in their new no-huddle looks.
AUBURN 37-14.

Southern Miss* over Louisiana 8
The Cajuns have changed their name. So goodbye Lafayette from our data-base,
but are still basically the same thing on the field – excellent ground game, and little
else. But that may be enough to hang around vs. a less-than-imposing Eagle
defense. SOUTHERN MISS 27-19.

Texas* over Florida Atlantic by 21
Howard Schnellenberger added a little spark here with discussions of “toughness”
regarding this matchup, possibly creating a slight spark for an otherwise flat
favorite. But Longhorn secondary could be vulnerable to Rusty Smith and some
good WR’s working through the air from behind. TEXAS 38-17.

Kansas* over Florida International by 38
The Jayhawks did not take many prisoners in 2007, winning seven times by 30
points or more, and now bring even more swagger to the table. KANSAS 48-10

Texas A&M* over Arkansas State by 24
We like Mike Sherman as a good fit to bring better organization to an underachieving
program, but he and his staff have been open about their concerns on
the defensive side of the ball, where speed is not an Aggie asset right now. TEXAS
A&M 37-13.

Kansas State* over North Texas by 26
Todd Dodge appeared to be overmatched in his first season at North Texas, but
one of the reasons behind his hiring was the inevitability of his son Riley joining
the program at QB (Texas 5A Player of the Year after each of the last two seasons).
He may take the first of many career snaps here, but will struggle to get up to the
speed of play at this level. KANSAS STATE 48-22.

Louisville* over Kentucky by 1 (Sunday)
Both new quarterbacks, Hunter Cantwell and Mike Hartline, inherit big shoes,
but should be fine in time. For now we like Hartline’s supporting cast batter, and
that puts the underdog Wildcats firmly in this hunt to the final possession.
LOUISVILLE 27-26.

Colorado over Colorado State by 14 (Sunday at Denver)
In a series in which each of the last four meetings have been decided by four points
or less, this pointspread is making a statement about the directions of the programs.
And we believe those directions enough to not call for the usual barnburner.
COLORADO 30-16.

Rutgers* over Fresno State by 7 (Monday)
Bulldogs got some of their swagger back last year, but not the kind of physical
defense that we are accustomed to from Pat Hill – even in a nine-win season they
allowed 5.1 per rush and only had 14 takeaways. Without getting push up front,
the secondary faces challenges against playmakers Tiquan Underwood and Kenny
Britt. RUTGERS 27-20.

Tennessee over U.C.L.A.* by 10 (Monday)
In time the recruiting of Rick Neuheisel, and tactical acumen of Norm Chow and
DeWayne Walker, can have the Bruin program offering Southern Cal a serious
local challenge. But that is in time, for now the absence of a legit starting QB
means problems against this class of opponent. TENNESSEE 29-19

Pointwise week 1 College

1-Mississippi State (-8 1/2) over Louisiana Tech 33-13
1-Tulsa (-14) over UAB 45-24
2-Michigan State (+4) over California 27-24
3-Memphis (+8 1/2) over Ole Miss 27-26
4-Fresno State (+5 1/2) over Rutgers 27-24
4-Wyoming (-11) over Ohio U. 37-17
5-Colorado State (+11 1/2) over Colorado (in Denver) 24-32
5-Temple (-7) over Army 33-13

Key Selections are graded 1 to 4, with 1 being the highest rating. "5" rated games are considered "best of the rest"

Here are the selections for week 1 from the Red Sheet

89--Western Michigan (+14) over Nebraska 27-31
89--Pittsburgh (-12 1/2) over Bowling Green 34-10
88--Kansas (-36 1/2) over Florida Int'l 66-13
88--Fresno State (+5 1/2) over Rutgers 27-24
88--Memphis (+7 1/2) over Mississippi 30-27
88--UCLA (+7) over Tennessee 25-22

87s (Near Choices)--Mississippi State, Tulsa, Oregon, Southern Cal,Utah State, Wisconsin

Gold Sheet Write-Ups

THURSDAY, AUGUST 28

*BUFFALO 27 - Utep 21--Bull recruiting has been upgraded dramatically, and Buffalo is one of MAC's most experienced teams with 18 regulars returning, plus some impressive newcomers and vet starters returning from injuries. Conversely, UTEP seems to be on the downside of the curve, as the defense is coming off its worst season under HC Mike Price, who has fallen several notches in prestige. Bull QB Willy (68% LY), RB James Starks (1103 YR; 14 TDs) and a vet OL are reasons to believe Buffalo offense can win this game. Meanwhile, UTEP QB Vittatoe was very productive last season, but he's one of just 3 returning starters (lost 5 of his top 6 receivers and RB Marcus Thomas, who accounted for 1166 YR & 18 scores). Experience edge and possible Miner lookahead to rare visit by Texas point to Bull win. (FIRST MEETING)

*Vanderbilt 20 - MIAMI-OHIO 16--Granted, Vandy in heavy-duty rebuild mode on both lines. But SEC sources insist HC Johnson recruiting a higher caliber of athletes these days, and Dores do have pair of mobile QBs (sr. Nickson & jr. Adams) with starting experience. And reports indicate playmaking DBs D.J. Moore & Jamie Graham could emerge as surprise weapons offensively. Miami-O hasn't covered its last 6 as chalk and appears short of playmakers needed to lift attack that scored only 19 ppg LY. CABLE TV--ESPNU

(07-VANDY 24-Miami-O. 13...V.24-16 V.54/290 M.27/26 M.18/37/0/212 V.11/19/1/121 V.3 M.0)

(07-VANDERBILT -13' 24-13...SR: Vanderbilt 2-1)

*SOUTH CAROLINA 35 - North Carolina State 14--With seasoned South Carolina (16 starters back) eager to eradicate bitter taste of a painful 5-game losing streak to end '07 campaign, don't mind laying price vs. retooling NCS contingent (just 9 starters back). Wolfpack's untested RS frosh QB Wilson will be hard-pressed to move the chains, especially with the WR corps banged up (most seasoned wide-out Bowens out for year with preseason injury). And capable NCS RBs likely held in check by a seriously-improved (under new d.c. Ellis Johnson), rock-ribbed 'Cock front 7, featuring now-healthy LB J. Brinkley (missed final 8 games with injury LY) and LB E. Norwood (school-record 19½ TFL LY). USC's dual threat QB Beecher (plays designed for his running skills) & a deep stable of WRs burn a green State 2ndary (2 RS frosh start!). Note, Tom O'Brien's squad suffered its last 6 losses year ago by 17 pts. or more. CABLE TV--ESPN (DNP...SR: North Carolina State 26-25-4)

Wake Forest 26 - BAYLOR 20--Beginning of the Art Briles era at Baylor. And the word from Waco is that the offense-minded HC has big plans for speedy, run-pass, true frosh QB Robert "Rambo" Griffin (a talented 400 meter hurdler; went through spring ball) in the Bears' new, multiple-formation offense, even though holdover jr. Blake Szymanski (22 TDP LY) might get the start. The continuity edge obviously goes to Wake and HC Grobe with jr. QB Riley Skinner (72% LY) orchestrating the Deacons' deceptive offense. But the early spread is roomy enough to make true-believin' Baylor worth a gamble. (DNP...SR: Baylor 4-0)

*Oregon State 24 - STANFORD 17--By focusing solely upon returning starters, Stanford (which returns almost all of its defensive regulars from LY) would rate edge, especially since OSU breaking in an entirely new front 7 after leading nation in rush "D" in '07. But Pac-10 insiders report Mike Riley's new defenders possess the same sort of quicks that completely overwhelmed Cardinal OL the past two seasons, and jury still out on Stanford QB Pritchard after series of uneven performances LY. As long as Beaver QB Moevao doesn't self-destruct, OSU continues recent series edge. CABLE TV--ESPN2

(07-ORE. ST. 23-Stan. 6...O.15-12 O.44/173 S.24/5 S.16/32/2/189 O.14/21/0/142 O.0 S.2)

(07-OSU -13' 23-6 06-Osu -14' 30-7 05-Stanford +6 20-17...SR: Stanford 47-24-3)

ADDED GAME

*MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 24 - Troy 23--They're been plotting an ambush in Murfreesboro since short-handed MTSU was walloped by Troy at end of last season. And this time, Blue Raiders have dynamic QB Dasher (missed almost all of '07 game with injury) available, while Trojans in adjustment phase minus guru o.c. Franklin (off to Auburn) and graduated QB Haugabook.

(07-TROY 45-Mts 7...T.37-12 T.56/263 M.28/93 T.24/39/2/288 M.18/28/1/116 T.0 M.1)

(07-TROY -12' 45-7 06-Troy +8 21-20 05-Mts -7 17-7...SR: Middle Tennessee St. 12-3)

FRIDAY, AUGUST 29

*Temple 19 - ARMY 17--Let's get this straight. Temple is 2-29 straight-up in its last 31 road games, and we're supposed to stand in line to lay a TD with it at Army? No thanks! Al Golden has applied the paddles to the patient, shouted "Clear," and has managed to elicit a pulse from the Owls, but let's not get crazy. Not that West Point is going to shake down the thunder any time soon, either, but certainly the Black Knights figure to give a focused effort for HC Stan Brock, who's battling cancer. Army is inexperienced, but Temple starting QB Adam DiMichele has thrown as many interceptions as TDs in his career, including a pair in last year's 37-21 loss at Michie. Temple is improved, but the Owls are moving in "baby steps" and giving few indications they can win on the road, much less cover a significant number.

(07-ARMY 37-Temple 21...T.25-14 A.39/154 T.40/104 T.24/43/2/359 A.11/26/1/175 A.2 T.3)

(07-ARMY -6 37-21...SR: Army 4-1)

*Smu 38 - RICE 35--Rapid renaissance possible for SMU under former Hawaii HC June Jones, who coaxed 9 victories out of Warriors in his first campaign at Honolulu after UH had gone winless the prior season. His robust Red Gun attack figures to lay waste in the defense-shy C-USA, starting with small, slow Rice stop unit (league-worst 43 ppg & 511 ypg LY!). And insiders say Jones pleasantly surprised by defensive talent he inherited. No big shock if true frosh Mustang QBs Bo Levi Mitchell & Braden Smith able to outduel Rice's do-it-all sr. signal caller Chase Clement. TV--ESPN

(07-Rice 43-SMU 42...R.30-25 S.50/320 R.26/181 R.35/53/1/364 S.13/31/2/165 R.1 S.0)

(07-Rice +6' 43-42 06-RICE P 31-27 05-SMU -7' 27-7...SR: SMU 44-39-1)

SATURDAY, AUGUST 30

UNDER THE TOTAL MICHIGAN 14 - Utah 13--Michigan has too many question marks for us to lay even a small number with "Rich-Rod's" crew in this one. The fact the Wolverines lost loads of talent on offense is well documented, and those losses make us think Michigan's early-season "under" tendencies (11-2 "under" last 3 yrs. before Oct. 1) will continue. Utah has offensive balance in QB B. Johnson (67%) and RB Mack (1204 YR LY) to keep powerful Michigan defensive front somewhat off balance, but that group is being touted as one of the best at the school in recent years. Utes have won 6 straight bowl games and covered 6 of last 7 against ranked foes (Michigan is No. 24 in the USA Today Poll). New coach, new players, new offense equals a slow start in Ann Arbor.

(DNP...SR: Michigan 1-0)

NORTHWESTERN 31 - Syracuse 23--Hard to make a strong case for laying double digits with Northwestern in this one. Wildcats are just 3-14 in last 17 as a home favorite, are working under new coordinators on both sides of the ball, and will be playing without suspended sr. DT Gill, their best defensive lineman. Syracuse not exactly on our "go-with" list, but QB Andrew Robinson can generate some points if given time. Orange OL yielded 54 sacks last season, leading new o.c. Mitch Browning to a scheme that will try to take pressure off both the QB and the defense by scrapping the West Coast and trying to emphasize the running game. Wildcats yielded 4.7 ypc & 31 ppg over the last three seasons so Browning's plan might work. (DNP...SR: Syracuse 4-3)

*MISSISSIPPI 24 - Memphis 21--Though Ole Miss excited to begin a new era in Oxford under well-liked and respected Houston Nutt, expect this be another hotly-contested battle pitting two regional rivals (see Looking For An Angle). Rebels soph QB Sneed (Texas transfer owns rare combination of quick release & strong arm) has plenty of upside. But he won't find groove early vs. a veteran, more aggressive Memphis defense (under new, demanding d.c. Tim Walton) able to apply more pressure, featuring 8th-year HC Tommy West's deepest, most athletic DL, according to C-USA scouts. On the contrary, thinning Ole Miss DL has taken a couple serious hits (see Special Ticker). So, Tigers mobile, strong-armed 6-3 juco QB Hall (original Washington St. signee) has ample time to locate a tallish stable of WRs, spearheaded by 6-4 Calhoun (62 catches) & 6-8 Singleton (51, 11 TDs) vs. a still-suspect Rebel 2ndary.

(07-Miss. 23-MEMP. 21...Me.30-19 Me.35/124 Mi.29/74 Me.41/61/4/343 Mi.19/30/0/201 Mi.3 Me.1)

(07-Miss. -2' 23-21 06-MISS. -3 28-25 05-Miss. +2' 10-6...SR: Mississippi 44-10-2)

Ohio 25 - WYOMING 24--Wyo (2-9-1 vs. the spread LY) played smashmouth at Ohio LY, eking out a 34-33 victory, pounding for 267 yards on the ground, only to see QB Karsten Sween toss 4 of the team's 5 picks. That carelessness is partly why Sween has given way TY to 6-4 juco Dax Crum (previously at Arizona State) as the QB in the Cowboys' revamped scheme under new o.c. Bob Cole, featuring lots of Wake Forest-like misdirection. Ohio HC Solich says he's got the talent on hand to replace the Bobcats' main man of LY (RB Kalvin McRae; 1434 YR, 20 TDs). Wyo has a tough defense (22nd in total yards LY), but OU QBs Theo Scott and Boo Jackson offer more speed and playmaking ability than their recent Bobcat predecessors.

(07-Wyo. 34-OHIO 33...W.28-13 W.47/267 O.33/37 O.15/30/2/255 W.26/37/5/174 W.2 O.2)

(07-Wyoming -4 34-33...SR: Wyoming 1-0)

WISCONSIN 45 - Akron 14--Prepared to "lay the lumber" with Wisconsin side that has handled most MAC foes it's faced the last few years and has been a go-with in openers, covering 5 straight. Stop us if you've heard this one, but the Badgers figure to pound the ball inside with P.J. Hill and Zach Brown behind a typically huge Badger OL. Ex-Kansas State QB Allan Evridge was announced the starter for this game after battling Dustin Sherer for the job, and his mobility plus nearly 2 yrs. in HC Bielema's system are positives. (DNP...SR: Wisconsin 1-0)

*NEBRASKA 37 - Western Michigan 20--With 17 starters back, on the surface it would appear that WMU might be able to take Nebraska to the wire, even in Lincoln. However, it must be remembered that new Husker HC Bo Pelini has inherited a big, balanced, well-stocked offense, and that the Bronco defense (30 ppg) had major problems vs. quality attacks in 2007. The big question is whether the hard-driving Pelini (d.c. at LSU LY) can restore the pride in the NU stop unit, which sadly slumped to 112th in yards against, 114th in points, and 117th on third down in 2007. Even with big questions at LB, we'll take a chance those stats are greatly reflective of the dubious leadership of ousted coach Bill Callahan. (FIRST MEETING)

*OREGON 41 - Washington 23--No need to be concerned about reports that Oregon might use 3 QBs (holdovers Costa & Roper, and touted frosh Harper) in post-Dennis Dixon era, since Mike Bellotti has been rotating signal-callers with success in Eugene since the days Barack Obama was a community organizer in Chicago. More concerned with U-Dub's over-reliance on one-man gang QB Locker, who has been a bit gimpy with sore hamstring in preseason camp, and Ty's Husky "D" is still full of ?s. Recent Duck series domination (won and covered last 4, all by 20 or more) continues.

(07-Oregon 55-WASH. 34...O.39-17 O.62/465 W.29/164 W.12/31/1/257 O.19/30/1/196 O.0 W.0)

(07-Ore. -12' 55-34 06-ORE. -14' 34-14 05-ORE. -16' 45-21...SR: Washington 58-37-4)

Tulsa 48 - UAB 27--While troubled UAB (only 72 scholarship players--13 fewer than NCAA maximum) still on short rations under 2nd-year HC Callaway, potent Tulsa (41 ppg on 544 ypg LY!) has established itself as one of C-USA's top powers. New Hurricane QBs sr. D. Johnson & rifle-armed juco Bower own teeming arsenal of proven weapons, while host draws sparse crowds at cavernous Legion Field. And UT won't pull punches after allowing severely outgunned Blazers to hang around LY.

(07-TULSA 38-Uab 30...T.34-20 T.49/362 U.36/161 T.19/37/2/333 U.22/46/1/242 T.1 U.1)

(07-TULSA -23 38-30...SR: Tulsa 1-0)

Tcu 20 - NEW MEXICO 17--Matchups were all wrong for New Mexico at Fort Worth LY, when swarming TCU "D" turned screws on Lobo attack that could only manage 117 total yards in one-sided Frog romp. But TCU has had its problems carrying numbers on road lately (9-18-2 vs. line as visitor since '03, and 0-3 as road chalk LY), and there are plenty of experienced playmakers on Rocky Long's unorthodox 3-3-5 "D" to keep Frogs' RS soph QB Dalton guessing.

(07-TCU 37-N. Mex. 0...T.23-6 T.60/238 N.26/28 T.13/22/1/183 N.9/32/1/91 T.0 N.1)

(07-TCU -4 37-0 06-Tcu -6' 27-21 05-TCU -1' 49-28...SR: TCU 6-3)

*Mississippi State 20 - LOUISIANA TECH 16--Sure, previously laboring MSU finally turned the corner LY under 5th-year HC Sylvester Croom. But still can't lay points on road with defensively-sound Maroon, who continued struggling in red zone in fall scrimmages. Resurgent La Tech has made rapid strides under smart, savvy 2nd-year mentor Derek Dooley, as Techsters fiercely competed with both Hawaii & Boise State in Ruston LY. And with Georgia Tech transfer QB T. Bennett (2136 YP LY) able to start right away for LT due to an NCAA loophole, and versatile, All-WAC RB P. Jackson (950 YR, 31 catches) demanding every-down respect, LT hangs tough. CABLE TV--ESPN2

(DNP...SR: MSU 7-2)

*Boston College 30 - KENT STATE 13--Defending ACC Atlantic champ BC trying to compensate for loss of star QB Ryan (No. 3 overall pick in NFL draft) and its top 3 RBs. Still, Eagles' gnarly front 7 on defense (only 76 ypg rushing LY--No. 2 in nation) matches up well vs. limited Kent's main weapons, mighty-mite 5-5 jr. RB Jarvis (1669 YR LY!) & run-oriented sr. QB Edelman. BC scouts say new QB Crane, a 5th-year senior, has plenty of confidence, and Flashes just 11-22 vs. spread since 2005. (at Cleveland, OH) (FIRST MEETING)

Oklahoma State 30 - WASHINGTON STATE 20--Even the shrewdest Pac-10 observers having trouble getting an early handle on what to expect at Wazzu, where 1st-year HC Wulff has turned Cougs inside out (new no-huddle "O" and switch to 4-3 "D" among other things). But replacing graduated QB Brink a tall order, especially since new triggerman Rogers has little experience in line of fire. As long as Mike Gundy's juco imports make the impact on OSU "D" that some Big XII scouts believe, would rather trust productive Cowboy QB Zac Robinson & friends at modest price. (at Seattle, WA) (DNP...SR: Washington State 2-0)

*MINNESOTA 31 - Northern Illinois 27--While reports indicate Minny's defense will be improved under new leadership, the Gopher stop unit has a long way to go after finishing last in the nation in '07. The addition of ex-Duke HC Ted Roof as defensive coordinator should be a huge boost, but the feeling is HC Tim Brewster is in over his head being in charge of a major college program. New NIU HC Jerry Kill has been cagey about whether touted RS frosh Chandler Harnish or senior Dan Nicholson (recovering from injury) will start at QB, but the Huskies figure to be able to move the ball on Minny with either triggerman considering the weapons at their disposal. (DNP...SR: Minnesota 1-0)

PITTSBURGH 34 - Bowling Green 16--Jr. Sheehan (3264 YP & 23 TDP LY) a proven field general for visiting BG, while Pitt jr. QB Stull (season-ending thumb injury in 2007 opener) lacks game experience. Panthers do boast one of nation's top RBs in marvelous soph McCoy (15 TDs & 1328 YR LY), however, and host's swarming defense waaaaay more athletic than Falcons stop unit. Those edges enough to give Pitt (6-2 as double-digit favorite under HC Wannstedt) decent shot at covering reasonable spread.

(DNP...SR: Pittsburgh 2-0)

FLORIDA 52 - Hawaii 10--Even with rival Miami-Florida up next for national title contender Florida, still want no part of a rebuilding UH squad (just 9 starters back), which is forced to go with green, soph QB Rausch (juco from College of the Desert has never played in front of more than 1,000 fans!) with sr. triggerman Graunke ruled ineligible for opener. And with the top 4 WRs gone for Warriors, UH attack will be stymied by a maturing, chemistry-rich Florida defense that has developed a "pack mentality" TY. Gators Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow (32 passing, 23 rushing TDs) has even more speed surrounding him TY. And with a much more potent ground assault (Meyer says he has 4 quality RBs) for support, UF should score easily and often vs. a severly overworked Warrior defense (with new CBs). (FIRST MEETING)

Virginia Tech 21 - East Carolina 19--Persuasive technical case for either side. Well-coached Va. Tech has covered 60% of its games over last decade for venerable mentor Beamer. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz is 26-11 against line since taking helm at ECU in 2005. Compelled to take generous points in this matchup, as veteran Pirates oozing confidence after giving heavily-favored Hokies a 60-minute battle in LY's opener at Blacksburg. And now-retooling Tech has to replace not just its top 4 WRs from 2007, but most of its best playmakers on defense as well. (at Charlotte, NC) TV--ESPN2

(07-VA. TECH 17-E. Car. 7...V.16-12 E.35/142 V.31/33 V.22/33/1/245 E.16/31/1/119 V.2 E.0)

(07-VIRGINIA TECH -27' 17-7...SR: Virginia Tech 9-4)

*Missouri 33 - Illinois 20--This regional rivalry is becoming one of the premier early-season games with the recent ascension of these two programs. And another thriller appears in store with QBs Juice Williams (755 YR in 2007) and Eddie McGee (257 YP off the bench vs. Mizzou LY; often getting 40% of the snaps TY in practice) both available for Illinois. However, the Illini will miss the powerful bursts of Rashard Mendenhall (1681 YR) more than they believe. Moreover, neither of the Illinois QBs can match the consistent playmaking of the Tigers' Chase Daniel (68%, 33 TDs, only 11 ints. LY), who HC Pinkel calls his "Battlefield commander" and who also operates a better-balanced attack (including WR/RB/KR Jeremy Maclin & TE Chase Coffman). (at St. Louis, MO)

CABLE TV--ESPN

(07-Mo. 40-Ill. 34...M.25-23 I.34/119 M.33/70 M.37/54/0/359 I.23/40/2/316 M.2 I.3)

(07-Missouri -5 40-34 at St. Louis, MO...SR: Missouri 14-7)

*CALIFORNIA 27 - Michigan State 26--Pac-10 insiders not surprised by Jeff Tedford's decision to go with bowl hero Kevin Riley at QB over 2-year starter Nate Longshore, but need more convincing that Golden Bears ready to provide more value than declining local real estate prices after covering only 14 of their last 41 on board. Staying competitive no problem for MSU, which lost 6 times by a TD or less in '07, and experienced wepons QB Hoyer & RB Ringer (1447 YR LY) can keep Spartans close again. REG. TV--ABC (DNP...SR: Michigan State 2-1)

Southern Cal 24 - VIRGINIA 10--Little doubt USC's deeeeeeeep defense, stacked with future first-round NFL draft picks, holds sway in this game. Still, the Trojan offense looks like a work in progress. HC Carroll unlikely to rush injured No. 1 QB Sanchez (check status) into prolonged action, and LB-rich Virginia stop unit has wherewithal to hold its own vs. USC ground attack. Scrappy Cavaliers 12-2 last 14 as home dog, while overpriced Trojans have covered only 5 of last 16 laying double digits. (FIRST MEETING)

*Clemson 31 - Alabama 20--Southern scouts concur--watch out for rising Tide in Tuscaloosa. And Bama might be a good bet to win SEC title...in 2010. While mega blue-chip WR Julio Jones might be ready for NFL, most of Nick Saban's ballyhooed recruits will need a few years to ripen. Conversely, Clemson is built for present, with cool sr. QB Harper (27 TDP, only 6 ints.) deftly distributing ball among dazzling array of speedy skill performers. And Tigers not without their own impressive newcomers, as touted true frosh DE Bowers reportedly ready to make immediate impact. (at Georgia Dome)

(DNP...SR: Alabama 11-3)

*ARIZONA 45 - Idaho 24--Under-the-gun Arizona HC Stoops might be tempted to let sr. QB Tuitama and Cats' emerging Texas Tech-influenced spread run up the score. But with a nearly completely-rebuilt stop unit, can we trust Cats in such a historically unprofitable role (1-7 as home chalk since '05)? Idaho not much, but remember that Vandals weren't embarrassed vs. Pac-10's USC & WSU LY before attrition set in, and HC Akey welcomes back entire offense (including RB Deonte Jackson and his 1175 YR). (DNP...SR: Arizona 9-2)

*UNLV 27 - Utah State 21--Since Utah State was fairly competitive in all but two games LY (lost by combined 106-3 vs. Oklahoma & Boise State), don't mind taking DDs with Aggie squad that also covered 6 of 7 away from home. Rebel HC Mike Sanford, who is on the hot seat, has some competent weapons (including pounding RB Summers) at his disposal. But his defense is still undersized and vulnerable (29 ppg). Aggie HC Brent Guy says he has more overall depth and size on both lines. And Utah State actually comes into game with more momentmum, having won last two games LY, while UNLV on a protracted 8-game losing streak. Remember, Rebels needed a last-minute TD to pull out 23-16 series win in Logan in '07. If decent 6-2 Aggie QB Setzer avoids big mistakes, Sanford's squad barely escape once again.

(07-Unlv 23-UTAH ST. 16...S.15-14 U.38/173 S.40/97 U.12/20/0/141 S.13/19/0/137 U.1 S.2)

(07-Unlv -6' 23-16 05-USU +3' 31-24...SR: Utah State 12-6)

ADDED GAMES

INDIANA 34 - Western Kentucky 20--Don't quite trust Indiana laying three TDs in this game, especially with key offensive cog QB Kellen Lewis (led team in rushing as well as passing; accounted for 38 TDs LY) running second team during August drills for disciplinary reasons. Western Kentucky HC David Elson will have a few more arrows in the quiver this season, and his two-QB spread offense should be more productive as soph K.J. Black (recently named the starter) builds on a productive freshman season (66% completions). Indiana hasn't held foes to fewer than 30 ppg in years, although last season the Hoosiers made progress stopping the run (3.9 ypc). (FIRST MEETING)

*AUBURN 49 - Louisiana-Monroe 17--Yes, Auburn hadn't performed well as a favorite lately, primarily due to an offense that lacked much big-play ability. But expect some trend reversal now that Tigers running a fast-tempo, no-huddle attack implemented by new o.c. Tony Franklin (former Troy o.c.), which will confound more than just pound. So expect defensively-stout Tigers (18 ppg) to eventually pull away from overmatched Monroe, unable to sneak up on the powerful SEC host following ULM's stunning 21-14 upset at Bama late LY. Auburn won't eschew the run with topflight RBs Tate & Lester exposing Warhawks 4-2-5 alignment, while either QB Burns or Todd slice up a soft UL Monroe 2ndary ranked 101st year ago. (DNP...SR: Auburn 6-0)

*SOUTHERN MISS 37 - La.-Lafayette 20--Oklahoma State racked up 3161 YR and 3161 YP passing in 2007 with new Southern Miss HC Fedora as its offensive coordinator. Versatile star Eagle RB Fletcher (nearly 3000 YR last 2 seasons) well suited to Fedora's scheme, and scouts insist lightly-experienced QBs soph M. Young & RS frosh A. Davis both capable of balancing new attack. Not sure ULL's senior duo of QB Desormeaux & RB Fenroy (each more than 1000 YR LY) can move chains enough to keep not-so-Ragin' Cajun defense from being exploited.

(DNP...SR: Southern Miss 38-10-1)

*TEXAS 38 - Florida Atlantic 20--Yes, FAU has been hammered in many of these intersectionals in the recent past. But this is one of crafty Howard Schnellenberger's deeper and more mature Owl teams, even though it lost top receiver Jason Harmon (ACL) in camp. Jr. QB Rusty Smith (32 TDs, only 9 ints. LY) still has a speedy spupporting cast. And Texas is not without concerns of its own, considering it was 109th vs. the pass LY and is rebuilding in the back four. On offense, there are questions whether the Longhorn ground game can dominate in the absence of Jamaal Charles (1619 YR), although scouts report UT is planning to use elusive backup QB John Chiles in a "slash" role. (FIRST MEETING)

*KANSAS 56 - Florida International 6--The way Kansas (12-1 SU LY; 11-1 vs. the spread) bullied its way past outclassed foes (Jayhawks had 7 wins by 30 points or more in '07), KU seems worth the risk vs. the Golden Panthers (1-11 in 2007) at the big price. Most of the underrated KU defense returns, and QB Todd Reesing (33 TDs, 7 ints.), RB Jake Sharp (821 YR), and WR Dexton Fields (63 recs.) are a terrific offensive nucleus. If 6-1, 230 juco RB Jocques Crawford is as good as advertised, game over early.

(07-KANSAS 55-Fiu 3...K.26-15 K.36/224 F.36/122 K.25/39/1/391 F.16/36/2/133 K.2 F.3)

(07-KANSAS -35 55-3...SR: Kansas 1-0)

*TEXAS A&M 34 - Arkansas State 20--For now, new A&M HC Mike Sherman has the hungry "Aggie-exes" excited about changes in College Station. But most Big XII insiders not convinced A&M ready to lay heavy lumber against any foe at this stage, especially while QB McGee adjusts to pro-style attack after running lots of option for Dennis Franchione, plus major Aggie rebuilding in the pits. ASU has established weapons in QB Leonard & RB Arnold, and Red Wolves put up good fight at both Texas & Tennessee LY. (DNP...SR: Texas A&M 3-0)

*KANSAS STATE 58 - North Texas 27--Despite contract extension, KSU HC Prince under increasing pressure in Manhattan, which should ensure focused effort from his Wildcats in this home lidlifter. Sun Belt rep UNT surrendered 145 points at Oklahoma & Arkansas LY, so count on confident Wildcat jr. QB Freeman (3353 YP in 2007) to shred poor-covering Mean Green 2ndary. Addition of several impact jucos should help maligned KSU defense keep "back door" closed against visitor's relentless aerial attack. (05-KANSAS STATE -25 54-7...SR: Kansas State 3-1)

SUNDAY, AUGUST 31

Kentucky 27 - LOUISVILLE 26--Previously high-flying L'ville took a serious tumble LY (worst mark since '97) under new HC Steve Kragthorpe. And since there are still major concerns on a revamped Card defense (33 ppg) that gave up a plethora of big plays year ago, prefer to "take" with ascending rival Kentucky, even without record-breaking QB Andre Woodson. After all, Wildcats new QB Hartline, who'll benefit from a talented trio of RBs (Allen, Dixon & Locke), can work play-action vs. yielding L'Ville 2ndary (25 TDP, just 7 ints.). And with UK mentor Brooks thrilled with his added depth and speed on the DL and in 2ndary, Card QB Cantwell won't have field day, especially with WRing corps (see Ticker) suffering some attrition. CABLE TV--ESPN

(07-KY. 40-Lvl. 34...K.27-26 K.35/185 L.27/101 L.28/43/1/366 K.30/46/0/275 K.0 L.1)

(07-KY. +5 40-34 06-LVL. -22' 59-27 05-Lvl. -22 31-24...SR: Kentucky 11-9)

*Colorado 30 - Colorado State 13--Former Colorado State QB and assistant Steve Fairchild takes over for Sonny Lubick, who guided the Rams to uncharted heights during his 15 years as HC. But Lubick's program lost some steam the last two seasons, going 4-8 and then 3-9. It must be noted that this rivalry has been one of the more tightly contested in recent years, with 7 of the last 8 meetings decided by 7 points or fewer. In 2008, however, Colorado--in its third season under Dan Hawkins--appears to be on the rise. Hawkins has been landing some prime-time recruits (frosh RB Darrell Scott turned down Texas), and son soph QB Cody can be counted upon to improve. Meanwhile, the CSU QB situation is uproven, and the Ram RBs, while tough, lack speed. (at Denver, CO)

(07-Colo. 31-Csu 28 (OT)...S.25-18 S.56/157 U.28/129 S.20/27/1/229 U.18/32/1/201 U.2 S.0)

(07-Col. -2' 31-28 (OT) at Den. 06-Csu -2 14-10 at Den. 05-COLO. -7 31-28...SR: Colo. 58-19-2)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 1

Fresno State 31 - RUTGERS 30--Departure of record-setting RB Rice (along with increasing scrutiny from the financially-strapped state of New Jersey into money being spent on Scarlet Knights' football program) might signal an end to HC Schiano's honeymoon at resurgent Rutgers. On the other hand, pugnacious Pat Hill's Fresno squad appears ready to rise, with many TGS scouts pegging veteran Bulldogs as the team to beat in WAC. Sure, Knights' strong-armed sr. QB Teel will get his. But FSU sr. QB Brandstater has enough composure to burn Rutgers' constant blitzes for big plays. Upset alert. TV--ESPN

(FIRST MEETING)

*UCLA 20 - Tennessee 17--With top two projected QBs unavailable and banged-up OL looking like a disaster area in preseason camp, Rick Neuheisel's debut at UCLA has already had to take some detours. But before dismissing Bruins, remember that quick-footed "D" should be ornery once more for respected d.c. Walker, and who better than sage, vet o.c. Norm Chow to smooth out the rough spots for juco QB Craft (who started five games at San Diego State in '06)? UT in adjustment phase, too, as 1st-year o.c. Dave Clawson (ex-Richmond HC) trying to get new QB Crompton comfy as Vols debut their own West Coast attack. Note Bruins have covered their last 10 as a dog, and "short" was very profitable role for Neuheisel in previous career stops at Colorado and Washington. CABLE TV--ESPN (DNP...SR: Tennessee 7-4-2)

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

Utah-Michigan UNDER the total

OHIO by 1 over Wyoming

KANSAS by 48 over Florida International

UCLA by 3 over Tennessee (Mon., Sept. 1)

PLAYBOOK CFB 2-MINUTE HANDICAP - WEEK 1
Marc Lawrence

(All results are preseason ATS, and most recent, unless noted otherwise - * check earlier this season for similar result. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of PLAYBOOK™ and the PLAYBOOK™ Database and may not be re-used or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.)

THUR, AUG 28TH
NC State SERIES: 4-0 L4… 4-0 in August… 4-1 as non conf RD’s > 3 pts…. 5-2 on weekdays (3-0 away)… 0-5 in 1st lined gm
S CAROLINA 4-0 on weekdays… 4-1 bef RG vs Vandy… 0-5 home Game One… 1-6 as non conf HF’s 10 < pts… 1-3 in August

Oregon St SERIES: 4-1 L5… 5-1 in 1st lined gm… 4-1 vs conf opp w/ rev… 4-1 in 1st of BB RG… 1-4 on weekdays
STANFORD 3-0 on weekdays… *4-1 as HF’s bef BB RG… 5-2-1 Game One… 1-5 home w/ conf rev… 0-3 in 1st conf gm

FRI, AUG 29TH
Smu 4-1 as conf dogs w/ rev… 1-6 Game One… *1-6 as conf RD’s 10 pts… 0-5 away bef UNLV… 0-3 Game One
MICHIGAN 0-2 vs Moun West opp… 1-7 as non conf HF’s pis in Game One… 3-9 in 1st of BB HG

Akron *0-5 as dogs pts
PITTSBURGH 5-1 home vs MAC opp… 4-1 Game One… *4-1 as non conf favs 6 > pts… 3-1 in 1st of 3 straight HG

Hawaii 4-0 in August… *4-1 L5 as DD dogs… 6-2 away vs non conf opp… 1-4 in 1st lined gm
FLORIDA 2-0 bef Miami-Fla… 5-1 Game One… 10-2 L12 vs non conf opp… 6-2-1 home Aug/Sept… *1-5-1 as favs 20 < pts in 1st of BB HG

Virginia Tech SERIES: 4-1 L5… 4-0 in August… 4-1 Game One… 12-3 vs non conf opp w/ rev… 3-9 as away/neutral favs 20 < pts bef BB HG
E Carolina 3-0 Game One… 4-1 as non conf dogs 22 < pts w/ rev… 5-2 vs ACC opp… 1-4 dogs bef W Virginia

Illinois 6-1 as dogs w/ non conf rev… 3-1 bef BB HG… 0-4 L4 neutral site gms… 0-2 in August… 1-3 Game One
Missouri SERIES: 6-1 L7… 5-1 vs non conf opp w/ rev… 5-1 L5 neutral site gms… 4-1 Game One… 2-5 favs 10 < pts bef BB HG

Michigan St 6-1 as non conf dogs… 0-3 away Game One… 0-3 vs Pac 10 opp… 0-3 bef E Michigan… 1-5 bef MAC opp
CALIFORNIA 3-0 in August… 4-1 Game One… 3-1 vs Big 10 opp… 0-5 home bef BB RG… 1-5 bef Wash St

Usc 7-1 as non conf RF’s… 3-1 in August… 5-2 away before week of rest… 0-3 away/neutral bef Big 10 opp
VIRGINIA 14-2 in 1st of BB HG… 12-2 L14 as HD’s (3-0 vs non conf opp)… 3-1 in August… 0-4 L4 as non conf dogs… 0-3 Game One

Alabama 3-0 bef Tulane… *0-3 as non conf favs/dogs 4 < pts… 0-3 vs ACC opp… 2-6 Game One
Clemson 3-0 Game One… 4-1 away/neutral vs SEC opp… *3-1 as non conf favs/dogs 4 pts… 6-2 vs SEC opp… 0-2 in August
AUBURN 0-2 vs Sunbelt opp… 1-6 in 1st of BB HG… 1-4 Game One… *1-3 as non conf favs 14 > pts

Florida Atl 3-1 Game One… *0-9 as dogs 21 > pts… 0-4 vs Big 12 opp
TEXAS 4-1 Game One… 4-1 vs Sunbelt opp… *6-2 as favs 27 > pts

Florida Intl 0-2 vs Big 12 opp… 1-5 in 1st of BB RG… *1-5 as dogs 24 > pts… 1-5 away vs non conf
KANSAS *4-0 as favs 21 > pts… 8-2 home vs non conf… 0-3 in August… 2-6 Game One… 3-7 as favs in 1st of BB HG

SUN, AUG 31st
Kentucky 7-3 away bef BB HG… 1-5 as RD’s vs opp w/ rev… 2-6 Game One
LOUSIVILLE SERIES: Host 4-0 L4… 4-0 w/ non conf rev… 3-1 in August… 3-1 in 1st of 3 straight HG… 6-2 Game One

MON, SEPT 1st
Fresno St 4-1 in August… 6-2 Game One… 10-3 as non conf RD’s 3 > pts… 0-6 on Weekdays
RUTGERS 3-0 in August… 6-1 as non conf favs… 6-1 Game one… 5-1 on weekdays… 10-2 in 1st of BB HG

Tennessee 3-0 on Weekdays… 1-5 vs Pac 10 opp… 2-5 away bef BB HG… 3-7 away vs non conf opp
UCLA 5-0 vs SEC opp… 2-0 on Weekdays… 4-0 bef BYU… *4-0 as non conf HF’s 12 < pts… 9-1 Game One…

SportsReporter

Best Bets

Wake
TCU
Western Michigan
Va Tech

Recommended

La Tech
Pitt
Florida
UNLV

Welcome to the first edition of the NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 1

Recapping 2007

Since this is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, we have no results to brag about. Sports Insights did have another positive year with NCAA Football Smart Money and Square Plays, so check out those valuable Betting Systems.

If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a membership. We are a leader in sports betting information and statistics.

Overall = 0-0 = 0.0%

NCAA WEEK 1

The faces are ready to be painted. The beer is cold for the tailgate. The fans are ready to sing the fight song, and the marching band is leaving the field. No preseason games for the NCAA, only Spring games and Fall two-a-days to get the teams prepared. Week 1 can always be a guessing game based on Pre-season polls and lasting impressions from 9 months ago, but we're ready for teams to battle on the way to the BCS Championship Game in Miami.

Warning to all new readers of the Sports MarketWatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

We anticipate there will be quite a few lopsided bet games this week due to the cupcakes on the schedules of many top teams. Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here are a trio of line value games we are keying on.

NCAA Week 1 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

Bowling Green vs Pittsburgh (8/30 -12:00P)

Pittsburgh is being heavily hyped heading into the season despite a 5-7 record in 2007. Sophomore RB LeSean McCoy broke the Big East and Pittsburgh records for yards by a freshman last season, amassing 1,328 yards. The previous Panthers' record was held by NFL Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett. McCoy also tallied 14 TDs. Junior QB Bill Stull returns after missing last season with an injury.

Bowling Green isn't receiving much attention after getting stampeded by Tulsa 63-7 in the GMAC Bowl, but they did end the regular season with four straight wins. They return eight starters on offense, including Junior QB Tyler Sheehan (3,264 yards and 23 TD in 2007) and his top two WRs. The Eagles also return nine starters on defense, including the entire secondary containing multiple all-conference players.

All that preseason hype for Pitt has transferred over to the betting marketplace. This is the most lopsided bet game of the weekend, with the Panthers receiving over 90% of the bets. The line has only moved half a point with those percentages, so we like going against the public and taking Bowling Green and the points against a Pitt team that still hasn't proven anything.

Bowling Green +13

Utah vs Michigan (8/30 - 3:30P)

Michigan hopes to begin this season on the right foot after last season's shocking defeat at the hands of Appalachian State in the Big House. The start of the Rich Rodriguez era takes place at home against Utah. The Wolverines still haven't named many of their starters for the season opener, as Rodriguez is still trying to find the players that best suit his spread offense. Adding to this is the one-game suspension of RB Kevin Grady for an offseason DUI arrest. He missed last season with a knee injury, but he is one of the few returning players considered a good fit for Rodriguez's system. Michigan does return a solid defense that should keep games close.

Utah won 8 of their 9 final games last season, with their only defeat coming by a touchdown on the road to a top-25 BYU team, to finish 9-4. The Utes return eight starters from an offense that averaged over 26 points per contest in 2007. They also return eight starters on a defense that led the Mountain West Conference in defensive scoring last season, allowing only 16.8 points per game.

Michigan is receiving 68% of bets, but the line has actually moved in the opposite direction. Pinnacle opened at Michigan -3.5, but have since moved to Michigan -3, indicating some sharp money on Utah. We'll go with the sharps and against the public, to take Utah and the points. Most books are at Michigan -3, but you can still find some books with a line of Michigan -3.5, including SIA.

Utah +3.5 (Sports Interaction)

Tennessee vs UCLA (9/1 - 8P)

Traditional powerhouse Tennessee travels to LA to welcome Rick Neuheisel back to college football. Neuheisel returns to his alma mater and brings offensive mastermind Norm Chow with him as offensive coordinator. The Bruins lost starting QB Ben Olson to a season-ending foot injury early in fall camp, and JC transfer Kevin Craft gets the opening start. UCLA's defense finished last season ranked 14th in the nation against the run, and they will have to have a good day against Volunteers RB Adrian Foster and a strong offensive line. The Vols defense was up-and-down last season, but they finished the year with two strong showings against top 25 teams.

The intrigue in this game comes from the public backing the away Volunteers and pushing the line in that direction. We like home dogs at Sports Insights, especially when when they're receiving more than a touchdown in the spread. Tennessee opened as -7 favorites at Pinnacle and other books, but are currently sitting at -7.5 at most books due to receiving over 75% of public bets. We're looking for Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow to keep it close and maybe sneak out a win at home, so we're taking the Bruins +7.5.

UCLA +7.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 1.

Games to Watch (0-0)
Bowling Green +13
Utah +3.5 (Sports Interaction)
UCLA +7.5

It should be another exciting NCAA season. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won't find anywhere else.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 1.

Games to Watch (0-0)
Bowling Green +13
Utah +3.5 (Sports Interaction)
UCLA +7.5

Not too shabby.....not at all.

Hey Chewi, welcome to the site

Thanks man, cheers to a good season!

Same to you boss. If you need anything let one of us know