Week 1 Trends & Traps
By Richard Gardner
If we’ve learned anything over the years about the opening weekend of the NFL regular season it’s this: it doesn’t look, smell or taste anything like the preseason. So forget what you’ve seen so far because you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
Having said that, you should know that Week 1 NFL betting can get a bit frantic. Stay clear of traps set to catch the unsuspecting overly anxious bettor who may not have his head wrapped around the right stats, especially for those ‘big’ games.
Make sure you’re not too eager to bet the farm on what appears to be a sure thing.
The anticipation and excitement of a brand new football betting season is a glorious feeling, but you can’t let it drain your common sense – or your bankroll. Start the season off right. Remember that what happened last year is a thing of the past and there may be a whole new set of circumstances to consider – with any matchup taking place over the first week.
Get good and ready because the real action begins right here, right now. With the NFL kicking off Thursday night on NBC with Tennessee at Pittsburgh, Steelers backers are out in force, with that line rising to its current six-point spread favoring Pittsburgh at Bodog Sportsbook from an open of 4.5.
While the Titans-Steelers game will surely generate a lot of hype, we expect most of the action to come on Sunday night’s Bears at Packers NFC North game in Jay Cutler’s debut with Chicago. Sunday night games generally rule the weekend in terms of handle and with this particular matchup the public currently is almost split down the middle on the game, with the Bears 3½-point dogs as of this writing.
What is interesting to note is the New York Jets at Houston Texans (-4½) game, and Minnesota Vikings (-4) at Cleveland Browns game. With both games bettors appear to be falling hard for the favorites. Mark Sanchez’s debut as QB for the Jets hasn’t won him many votes from the bettors, but it also doesn’t help when two of your strongest defensive starters (Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis) are out on suspension. Then again, Texans starting QB Matt Schaub is officially day-to-day with an ankle sprain suffered more than a week ago.
As for the Vikings-Browns, it appears the public thinks the Browns should be getting a lot more than four points. As of this writing, we still don’t know who Cleveland’s starting QB will be, although it’s expected to be Brady Quinn. If Minnesota’s Kevin Williams and Pat Williams had been forced to sit out this game because of their pending legal fight with the NFL, this line likely would have been altered significantly. But they are cleared to play. And then there’s that small matter of Brett Favre making his debut as a Viking. Like him or wish he was hitting the greens instead of the gridiron, Favre drives the needle from a handle perspective as well.
Other games we’re keeping a close eye on:
* Lions at Saints: New Orleans is the biggest favorite on our board at -13½. Why? You know damn well why, so don’t make me out to be the bad guy here. It’s like this: the Detroit defense was one of the worst in history last year, while Saints QB Drew Brees nearly broke Dan Marino’s record for passing yards in a season. The Saints won in Detroit by 35 points last year.
* 49ers at Cardinals: San Francisco has been getting some love as an NFC West dark horse and bettors appear to be shying away from a team whose good fortune may have ended with last year’s playoff run.
* Bills at Patriots (Monday): Are you kidding me? Tom Brady’s return to real action, not to mention Terrell Owens’ debut with the Bills, is going to draw huge numbers for the networks and the books. Buffalo will be without starting RB Marshawn Lynch and they just cut starting offensive tackle Langston Walker, so that team seems in disarray. The Pats seem weaker on defense without Richard Seymour, so it could be a shootout. The public is favoring the over at this point.