Week 2 Look-Ahead
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Are the Miami Dolphins a real threat to win the AFC East?
Understanding one week doesn't make a season, that second-half performance against New England was an eye-opener. The defense got after Tom Brady and generally dominated. The offense looked multi-faceted. As someone pleased with the result at halftime, the Patriots' collapse appeared to be less about their ineptitude as it was Miami simply imposing its will.
Knowshon Moreno was a force, providing stability and creating balance for an offense that has lacked a reliable ground game for years. Ryan Tannehill made mostly great decisions and accurate throws. Mike Wallace, moved around in different formations, looked every bit the No. 1 the Dolphins are paying him to be. Charles Clay was the matchup problem most assumed he would be.
In the first half, a Wallace drop foiled a potentially huge play, bringing up the same old questions about him. Tannehill was picked off. The Patriots racked up 248 yards and 20 points. Given the presence of its impressive cheerleaders, Miami barely looked like the second-best team on the field, much less the division.
So, what's real? Are the Patriots really going to miss Logan Mankins this much? Can an offense that regained the services of Rob Gronkowski really look as bad as it did in accumulating just 67 yards as Brady hit the ground time and time again? That's Week 2's biggest question mark heading into this next set of games as the routine intensifies, but obviously, there are others.
New England travels to Minnesota to meet the team that posted Week 1's most lopsided result, winning at St. Louis by four touchdowns. Brady provides a significant step up from Shaun Hill and Austin Davis, but Harrison Smith offered up a reminder that he's one of the league's best emerging safeties and the cornerback tandem of Captain Munnerlyn and Xavier Rhodes could do damage under the radar for weeks until people start noticing. Up front, and this where the questions come easiest, the changing of the guard from Jared Allen and Kevin Williams to the current younger group will be worth watching over the long haul.
After being dominated and losing a pair of defensive starters for the season, including linebacker Derrick Johnson, how do the Chiefs pick up the pieces? It's safe to say Andy Reid's second season at the helm hasn't started as smoothly as last season's 9-0 run, so this will be his first dose of true adversity as Kansas City attempts to rebound on the road at Denver and Miami the next two weeks. Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe must step up as leaders or they'll be 0-3 before the next time they take the field at Arrowhead.
The Broncos answered a few questions about how they intend to overcome Wes Welker's extended absence, with plan A apparently consisting of Julius Thomas' beast mode. Emmanuel Sanders is clearly capable, too, coming up with six catches and climbing right into the role of Manning security blanket.
His old teammates survived squandering a 27-3 lead, so the Steelers will be fine without the receiver who criticized Ben Roethlisberger's leadership once in Denver. In fact, replacement Markus Wheaton made the key reception off a Big Ben audible to set up Shaun Suisham's game-winner, but it's worth wondering why they needed such heroics in the first place.
What caused Pittsburgh's defensive breakdowns? Cleveland's Terrence West is an intriguing young back, but a rookie backup making his NFL debut can't be reaching the century mark on the ground against you. The Browns got back into the game by gashing the defense, creating easy play-action opportunities that let Brian Hoyer find a rhythm. Did the huge cushion simply lead to a situation where Pittsburgh let its guard down or was the letdown a warning sign?
Joe Flacco has the receivers to hurt the Steelers and will be looking to make up for horrible decisions that cost his team against Cincinnati. With the Ray Rice situation creating distractions on a short week, it's going to be on the typically laid-back Flacco to get the team on task as they look to avoid dropping consecutive home games to start the season.
Tampa Bay is the only other team in danger of an 0-2 start at home, having lost a divisional game where Carolina's Cam Newton was limited to giving his team quality pep talks while wearing sweatpants. Doug Martin hurt a knee yet is expected to be fine for Sunday's Rams visit, but the status of both offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford and Mankins, acquired to anchor the line, will likely be unknown until the weekend.
St. Louis has its own issues to deal with after being the only team that failed to score an offensive touchdown in Week 1. Hill's strained quad could keep him out of the Tampa game, which means Austin Davis would get his first career start since Case Keenum still isn't up to speed after being scooped up when Houston acquired Ryan Mallett. Who is Davis? That's a valid question. He played in a prolific spread offense under Larry Fedora at Southern Miss, winning the job as a freshman despite originally coming in as a walk-on. He went undrafted.
Speaking of quarterback issues, a buddy asked which current NFC East starter would be most likely to be benched first. While we're probably at least a few weeks away from an answer, the early leader would probably be Philadelphia's Nick Foles considering how vital the other three are to their respective franchises.
Yep, he's the only one in the division that won in Week 1, but looked just as shaky and turnover-prone as his QB cohorts.
How did Foles manage to look so bad that Mark Sanchez appeared to be an attractive alternative? Well, in a timing-based offense that requires accuracy and quick decisions, the QB who led the entire NFL with a 119.2 passer rating was holding the ball too long and all over the place when he did let it go. Erasing a 17-point deficit isn't going to look as easy as it did against Jacksonville, which means he's got to get right and not be the weak link on an otherwise explosive offense. Foles will duel with Andrew Luck in Indianapolis on Monday night.
The other legitimate contender to find himself holding a clipboard isn't Eli Manning or Tony Romo. What's Jason Garrett going to say? Brandon Weeden, get in there? Even if Ryan Nassib has a better command of new coordinator Sean McAdoo's offense, it's more of a failure on his end that a two-time Super Bowl winner seems so uncomfortable in it. The Giants are home for Arizona, which should have Tyrann Mathieu back to strengthen a defense that performed better than expected in their first test without Darnell Dockett and Daryl Washington, both out for the season.
Washington scored six points and Robert Griffin III tripped over his own feet on a handoff, fumbling in the red zone. He doesn't look as confident as he did pre-injury. While Daniel Snyder 's interests remain invested in his long-term success, Kirk Cousins is the most highly-regarded backup in the division and may be better suited for the offense given the receivers on the roster. If Griffin can't be the dual threat he once was and can't get his weapons into the end zone, at some point, Jay Gruden will have no choice but to seek an alternative. The Jaguars visit Fed Ex Field looking to apply the type of pressure they got on Foles in the opener, so Griffin will have his hands full.
Romo should, too, since Tennessee harassed the Chiefs all day and look like a possible sleeper to reach the postseason. Can they contain Dez Bryant? If that's not possible, do they have the firepower to pile up points against Dallas' vulnerable defense?
Just how good are the Titans?
Entering Week 2, that's one of many worthwhile questions that will slowly start deciphering the answers to.
This Week's Best Spot Bet Opportunities
By Jsaon Logan
Covers.com
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.
Lookahead spot
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are off to a 2-0 start and dreams of SEC grandeur are starting to creep in. The Bulldogs have their first taste of SEC competition in Week 4, making the trip to Death Valley to play the LSU Tigers. But before MSU tests its conference might, it travels to little ole South Alabama as a 14.5-point favorite in Week 3.
The Bulldogs rolled over Southern Mississippi but found themselves up against it versus UAB last weekend. Mississippi State was actually out-gained 548-516 by the Blazers, and can’t afford to look past the jacked-up Jaguars – and to LSU - this weekend.
South Alabama, which defeated Kent State 23-13 as a 2-point favorite in Week 1, enjoyed a bye week last Saturday and has been preparing for MSU since the ink dried on the schedule. Hell, there’s a billboard on Interstate-65 outside of Mobile simply stating “It’s Here, Sept. 13, 2014.” Oddsmakers opened MSU as 15.5-point road chalk but that has since been trimmed to 14.5, with that pesky half-point hook standing strong.
Letdown spot
The USC Trojans jumped into the national title conversion with a hard-fought 13-10 victory as 3-point road underdogs at Stanford in Week 2, going from 20/1 to 12/1 to win the college football championship. The Trojans’ emotions are running high after Andre Heidari’s field goal gave USC the edge late in the fourth quarter.
Southern Cal will have to bottle that excitement during a cross-country plane ride, traveling all the way to the East Coast for a date with Boston College Saturday. The Eagles are getting a lofty 17.5 points from the oddsmakers, but a look at the early line moves could give USC backers reason for concern. Books opened Southern Cal as big as a 19.5-point road favorite but have cut that spread down two points as of Tuesday, with early action expecting the Trojans to come out flat.
“I think it’s natural for that to be a concern,” USC head coach Steve Sarkisian told the Orange County Register of a possible letdown in Boston. “As I’ve said all along, whether it’s a rival or not, a conference opponent or not, the way we prepare is what is critical. That shouldn’t change based on the opponent. That being said, I’m still learning this football team.”
Note: USC will be without senior starting LB and team captain Hayes Pullard for the first half Saturday due to suspension.
Schedule spot
Another team making a long road trip this weekend is the Arizona Cardinals. They’re traveling to New Jersey for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff – 10 a.m. in Arizona – with the New York Giants on a short week, coming off a 18-17 win over San Diego (failed to cover -3) on Monday Night Football.
Arizona will not only deal with the long flight and time change but the early forecast is calling for un-desert like conditions in the Meadowlands Sunday. There’s a low pressure system projected to hit the East Coast this weekend and it brings wind and rain with it. The Cardinals are also 0-3 ATS in their last three contests coming off a Monday nighter.
The Giants need all the help they can get. New York’s new offense sputtered versus Detroit in Week 1, with Eli Manning throwing for just 163 yards and two interceptions Monday. Books opened the Giants as 3-point favorites but that spread is stinking like a stone. As of Tuesday afternoon, New York can be had as low as -1 and will be an underdog by the time Sunday rolls around.