NFL and College Football Newsletters for Thursday, September 14th, 2017 to Monday, September 18th, 2017
Joe Gavazzi Pointspread Prognosis
FAUX OR FO’REAL
Faux or Fo’Real is the title of one of our Pointspread Prognosis games each week. But there are events happening in the
CFB world that make us question the reality of the situation. What I am about to share with you is a group of pointspread records that are so diverse from the norm that one can only question whether they are Faux or Fo’Real! With over 50 years of pointspread history pointing to the fact that these numbers are a 50-50 proposition, it is very clear they will return to the norm. This makes the statistic I am about to present certainly of the faux variety. The question is, when do they become fo’real? Here is my best guess. These absurd numbers are occurring in the non-conference portion of the season. It will not surprise me that they continue this way for the next week or two until Conference play begins. Then again… the whole pattern may begin to reverse this week. Until then, I can only assume that this faux beginning is fo’real! Check out these mind-boggling numbers.
49-80 ATS Record for home favorites including 28-48 ATS as -14+
31-13 ATS Road teams as favorite to +3 (superior teams)
With good reasons, I will continue to follow this pattern this week in the hopes that it continues.
LEARN A NEW LANGUAGE
Our world has become a far more global place both economically, politically and culturally. One of the ways we see this evolving is in the amount of multi-lingual people in the world. As a result, it is important to learn a new language if you are to keep pace with modern society. In an effort to do my part, I am asking you to use a new language and a new concept for the next month in the world of our CFB sports handicapping.
The term is; AFP (away from the pointspread)
This phrase and its accompanying acronym (AFP) are used to represent the difference in a team’s performance between the betting line and the pointspread outcome. For example; let’s say a 10 point favorite wins a game by 30 points. For that game, they would have a +20 AFP. This number can be used in referring to a specific game, a group of games (such as home or away), for the year to date, or in conjunction with another team’s AFP to provide a net differential number. The concept is used as a contrary handicapping tool with the notion that a team’s skewed performance will return to the norm – the linemaker’s original power rating for a team at the beginning of a season. The concept works best between the weeks of 3 and 7 of the regular season when one team has a negative AFP of -20 or more and their opponent has a positive AFP of +20 or more with the net difference totaling 50 or more. With your new vocabulary entrenched in your memory bank, let’s move forward to Week #3 of the CFB season.
KEEP ON TRACKIN’
34-14 ATS Any team who double rushed their opponent (75% ATS L16Y)
16-6 ATS Any team who ran AND passed for 200+ yards if opponent did not (“200 Club”)
7-1 ATS Any team who is +3 or more turnovers in the game
28-48 ATS Home favorites of 14 or more points
31-13 ATS Road favorites to +3 (better team)
PREFERRED ELECTIONS ARE UNDERLINED
Friday, September 15th
Crusher of the Week
Illinois at South Florida (-17-) 7:00 PM ET ESPN
Never easy to lay double digits with a team who has allowed 38 PPG in their last 6 contests while knowing that home favorites of 14 or more points are 28-48 ATS this season. In the 2nd year under HC Smith, the Illini have settled on Crouch at QB. So what! This is an impotent offensive team that averaged only 20/315 LY and who, in this season, has scored just 24 points vs. Ball State with 216 yards and last week scored just 20 points vs. Western Kentucky gaining only 300 yards. Even against the still suspect South Florida defense, they should do little better. And although the Illini defense is the strength of their team, no one has stopped these Bulls behind QB Flowers. This team has averaged 44 PPG in their last 17 starts. Although the defense remains a continuing sieve, they have had an extra week to prepare and continue to shine in this role where they are 6-1 ATS the previous 3 years as home chalk. Lay it in what can only be termed our CFB Crusher of the Week!
Saturday, September 16th
Puppy of the Week
Kentuckyat South Carolina (-6) 7:30 PM ET
Here is your first chance to use your new language. South Carolina is 2-0 SU, ATS to begin the season. In winning both games outright as underdog, they have covered the spread by 32 points. In those games, however, they were outgained by NC State, 504-246, and last week, outgained by Missouri, 423-359. Turnovers and big special teams plays have been a major part of that. Now they return to Columbia for their home opener feeling better than they should about themselves. Today’s opponent, Kentucky, is at the other end of the spectrum. Though they have begun the season a likewise 2-0 SU, they are 0-2 ATS losing to the number by a combined 25 points. Last week, they defeated Eastern Kentucky 27-16 with a “200 Club” performance. The Wildcats have defeated the Gamecocks each of the last 3 seasons by 7, 4 and 7 points. This year, they return 17 starters and are one of the Top 20 most experienced teams in the land. And today we get them as 6 point puppy? Grab the points and do not be surprised by the outright victory as we begin to reap the benefits of being multi-lingual.
Rivalry Game of the Week
Notre Dame (-13-) at Boston College 3:30 PM ET ESPN
Each of these teams is 1-1 SU for the season. Each comes off a loss as a home favorite last week. But only one of these teams, Notre Dame, continues to suffer from overwhelming public support despite their recent failures. Dating to late 2015, this is a Fighting Irish team that is 5-11 SU. A Game #1 victory over a barefoot Temple team means nothing. Last week, they stepped up in class and got smacked down. Georgia outrushed the Irish 185-55 in a narrow 20-19 Georgia victory. Today, the Irish are asked to go on the road to cover a double digit impost knowing that a far more critical road game at Michigan State lies ahead next week. Classic PLAY AGAINST road favorite sandwich spot! This may not be much of a rivalry to Notre Dame. BUT IT IS A HUGE RIVALRY GAME for Boston College even more important than their game next week against defending National Champion, Clemson. Last week, Boston College lost 34-10 to Wake Forest. That was a game that was virtually even in the stat column but resulted in the rout because the Eagles were -4 in the net TO column. BC has had one of the best defenses in the Nation the last two years. Combined with the fact they are 6-1 ATS in this series (I told you it was more important to them), it will be no surprise that BC comes comfortably inside this inflated impost.
Penthouse Pick
UCLA (-3) at Memphis Noon ET ABC
This selection does not come without reservations. The Bruins will be traveling cross country for a 9:00 AM ET body time start. In addition, they are looking forward to the start of the PAC 12 season next week featuring a date with Stanford. The Bruins Game #1 victory over Texas A&M, when they stormed back for a 45-44 win after trailing 44-10 late in the third, is the type of victory that can make a season. UCLA followed up the victory by trouncing Hawaii last week, 56-23. Again, QB Rosen led the offensive onslaught. He now has 9 TDP in a pair of outings. Today he gets to feast on a retooled Memphis secondary that offers a great matchup for the passing game of the Bruins. Memphis has its own quality trigger man in QB Ferguson but this team has yet to get on track for the season with their 1st game against ULM being played in a driving rain storm and their 2nd game against UCF being cancelled last week due to Irma. If the Bruins can wake up and prevent the look ahead to Stanford, this fundamental mismatch will clearly play to their favor. Get down early on this revised Noon ET start so you can begin your day in the Penthouse!
Lone Ranger Game of the Week
Baylor at Duke (-14) 12:30 PM ET
Here is an opportunity for your 2nd language to provide incredible value and take you directly to the Winners Circle! As mentioned on these pages, it is going to be a pure bounce back season for Duke. After a combined record of 27-13 SU the previous 3 years, Duke slipped to 4-8 SU in 2016. The bounce back was predicted. The Game #1 romp of NC Central, 60-7, was no surprise. But the thorough trouncing of a highly regarded Northwestern team, predicted on these pages, was by greater proportions than most realize. The Blue Devils “200 Clubbed” Northwestern with a yardage margin of 538-191. After 2 games, Duke is 2-0 SU, ATS covering the number by 45 points. Many were expecting a fast fix for the Baylor Bears by highly respected 1st year HC Matt Rhule. He worked his magic at Temple. This year, despite inheriting a mess in Waco, he was expected to perform similar magic. To date, such has not been the case. Losing 48-45 to Liberty on their home field while allowing 585 yards, was the first indication. Last week, they lost 17-10 to UTSA being outgained by over 100 yards. That makes the Bears 0-2 SU, ATS with a -59 AFP. With a net AFP diff of -104, it is one of the largest Week #3 net diffs I have seen. The theory has done its magic, for Baylor is now a 14 point underdog IN A GAME WHERE THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN FAVORED before the season began. Knowing that home favorites of 14 or more points are 28-48 ATS adds confidence to the selection.
Perception/Reality Game of the Week
Central Michigan at Syracuse (-10) 3:30 PM ET
Last week on these pages, I predicted Mid Tenn State to win outright at this very price point against Syracuse. This week, the perception of the linemaker remains the same as he has again installed the Orange as a double digit favorite. The reality is that neither this team nor their defense deserves this level of favoritism. Maybe the misperception came from Week #1 when the Orangemen trounced C. Conn State, 50-7 with a yardage edge of 586-167. The reality of that victory is that C. Conn State is nothing more than a glorified high school football team with only 45 scholarship players. Last week, the Orange hosted MTSU and were upset 30-23 as double digit favorite when they were sacked 6 times and gained only 308 total yards. The ground game continues to struggle averaging just 3.1 YPR. Because of their affiliation with the MAC, C. Mich continues to get no respect. Remember that this is a team who won at Okla State in Week #2 last year, 30-27, (questionable outcome). Under 3rd year HC Bonamego, the Chips remain a team on the rise. Keyed by one of the Top 20 most veteran OLs in the country, they are off to a 2-0 SU start. Last weekend, they defeated Kansas 45-27 rolling up 590 yards. Don’t think that can’t happen against this Syracuse defense. Behind that solid OL, QB Morris has a 6/1 ratio and RB Ward is averaging 206/6.9. In a potential high scoring shoot out in the Carrier Dome, do not be surprised if Syracuse gets upset as a double digit favorite on consecutive weekends.
If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It
Purdue at Missouri (-7-) 4:00 PM ET SEC TV
Every rule has its exception. As I have often mentioned, it is the handicapper’s conundrum to follow momentum or to play the contrarian in games such as this where Missouri has a -65 net AFP differential providing the Tigers with an extra 6 points of value in this Game #3 matchup with the visiting Boilers. Last week, Missouri deserved far better than the 31-13 home loss to South Carolina. But a -3 net TO margin more than offset the 423-359 yardage edge indicating Missouri is due for a bounce back today. Backing the Tigers, however, comes with its negatives. First of all, this game is sandwiched between SEC affairs with South Carolina and Auburn next week. Second of all, the Tigers must deal with the fact that DC Cross was fired after the Tigers gave up 74 points in their first two home games. That plays right into the hands of the reborn Purdue offense under 1st year HC Brohm. In Week #1, the Boilers nearly upset highly respected Louisville before losing 35-28. Last week, they easily handled a respected Ohio team, 44-21, “200 Clubbing” them for at least 263 yards both running and passing. It is that type of offense that has made Brohm such a highly respected mentor in the world of CFB. Brohm enters today with his Western Kentucky and Purdue teams on a 15-5 ATS run. Combined with the fact that the Boilermakers bring the confidence of a solid road history that has the program 14-3 ATS away of late gives credence to this momentum play in the face of the contrary AFP indicator. I say to HC Brohm “If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It!
Big Dog of the Week
Tulane at Oklahoma (-34) 6:00 PM ET
Back to handicapping 101 for what could well, in retrospect, be the biggest letdown game of the CFB season. In a matchup of Top 5 teams last week, not only did the Sooners get their home revenge AT Ohio State but they put an exclamation point on the 31-16 win with a flag plant at mid-field by Sooners QB Baker Mayfield. If that does not spell “LETDOWN” when facing a little respected Tulane team, I don’t know what does. But this is a Tulane team under 2nd year HC Willie Fritz who has shown continual improvement. Last week against Navy, the king of option football, Tulane went toe to toe at the point of attack with the Middies being outrushed 194-191 in a narrow 23-21 comeback win for Navy. Now he takes his triple option to Norman where the Sooners have rarely seen this kind of attack especially in recent seasons in the pass heavy BIG 12 Conference. Look for Tulane to control the clock, shorten the game, take Mayfield and company out of their rhythm, and easily come in under the 5 TD impost. With last week’s ATS win, Fritz is now on a 24-15 ATS run.
Steamroller of the Week
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky (-7) 7:00 PM ET
In the Purdue analysis above, I mentioned the importance of current Boilers HC Brohm in immediately turning around the Purdue Program. To further note his coaching abilities, consider his success at Western Kentucky in the previous 3 years where his teams went a combined 31-10 SU averaging 45 PPG. Now consider the start of current Toppers HC Sanford whose Western team has started 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS. And this has been against Eastern Kentucky and Illinois. In the Game #1 victory vs. EKY, 31-17, Western held only a 364-345 yardage edge. Last week, Western lost 20-7 at bottom of the barrel Illinois being outrushed 193-6. So what is going to happen when the high-powered offense of Louisiana Tech comes to town behind veteran 5th year HC Holtz who is 8-3 ATS as road dog at Rustin. Last week in obeying my command, Tech got trounced when stepping up in class against powerful Miss State from the SEC. They were outrushed 327-152 in a 57-21 loss. Today, however, they step way down in class to face a Western team who defeated them in the CUSA Playoff game last year, 58-44. Tech was +12 in that game and is still +7 in this contest. That does not nearly account for the difference in the coaching change at Western. In a contest where Tech would have been favored at the beginning of the year, we jump in with major value in a rare opportunity for a revenging underdog to win outright.
I.C.E Game of the Week
Army at Ohio State (-30) 4:30 PM ET
Each week in this missive, I isolate an ICE game in which our team plays with (I)ntensity, (C)onviction and (E)xecution. Though Ohio State will certainly be looking to do that following their home field debacle last week, it is Army who plays with that ICE mentality each week. Enough of this “Urban Meyer – Ohio State Legend”! Consider their most recent 3 games. A 31-0 shutout at the hands of Clemson in a Playoff game last year, an opening day win at Indiana when they were tied with the Hoosiers at the half, and last week’s 31-16 loss to avenging Oklahoma. Now they must host an emerging triple option team who, under 4th year HC Monken, is playing their best ball in a number of years. They trounced Fordham in the opener 64-6, then roared back for a 21-17 win against underrated Buffalo as they rushed for 322 yards making the 2 game average 417 RYPG. THAT WILL RUN A LOT OF CLOCK AND SHORTEN THE GAME CONSIDERABLY making this 30 point impost a mountain. Remember that Meyer has only faced the option 3 prior times. The last time was 3 years ago when Navy gashed the OSU front 7 for 370/5.9. Want no part of the Buckeyes bounce back at a price point where home favorites are 28-48 ATS as -14+ in CFB this season.
Under the Radar Game of the Week
Tulsa at Toledo (-10) 7:00 PM ET
With over 50 games each week in the CFB season, the casual handicapper seldom takes time to glance at non-conference matchups such as this one between the MAC-West and the AAC-West. Yet these are a pair of quality programs who will each have winning records at the end of the season. The Toledo offense is led by QB Woodside who has boosted the Rockets to wins of 47-13 vs. Elon (553-175 yards), then 37-24 at improving Nevada last week in which they rolled up 426 yards. Long knocking on the door in the rugged MAC-West, this figures to be the year they ascend to the Title game. Tulsa had an outstanding year under then 2nd year HC Montgomery going 10-3 SU, 8-4 ATS while averaging 42/527 on offense. To Montgomery’s credit, he has ably filled in the gaps with QB President and RB Brewer leading the charge. After an opening week loss at Ok State, they dominated LA LaFayette last week, 66-42 with 667 yards in one of the more entertaining, high-scoring games of the week. Look for Tulsa to offer enough fire power to come in comfortably under this double digit impost.
Hidden Gem of the Week
Oregon (-14) at Wyoming 7:00 PM ET CBC TV
The linemaker has quickly adjusted for the presumed Oregon improvement under 1st year HC Taggart. Last year, the Ducks dipped to 4-8 SU, 2-8 ATS in the final season under HC Helfrich. At the close of last year, Wyoming would actually have been the favorite in this game. But since the Ducks scorched S. Utah for 703 yards and followed it up with 566 yards in their 42-35 “save” last week vs. Nebraska, this line has zoomed more than 2 touchdowns for their trip to Wyoming. Beach boys at altitude are always a negative. Clearly there is a difference between Eugene, Oregon and Laramie, Wyoming which sits at 7100’ of altitude on the Front Range. The Wyoming offense struggled in their opener at Iowa against the staunch Hawkeye defense though the Cowboys were outgained by only 30 yards in the 23-3 loss. Last week, they bounced back with a 27-0 home field victory against G. Webb in which the Cowboys purported NFL ready QB Allen passed for 328 yards. With Oregon looking dead ahead to their 9 game PAC 12 schedule and having just survived Nebraska in their home revenge game, this has sandwich spot written all over it.
Faux or Fo’Real
Kansas State (-3-) at Vanderbilt 7:30 PM ET ESPNU
Vandy is off to a 2-0 SU start. Are they Faux or Fo’Real? The clear answer is Faux, as we will soon find out in the next month when they must face Kansas State, Alabama, Florida and Georgia. Starting with a pair of victories over MTSU and Alabama A&M, even by combined scores of 70-6, means little in the overall schemata when stepping up in class against the Big Boys. That becomes a reality today when they must face a Bill Snyder coached team in the BIG 12. Let’s see how Vandy QB Shurmer fairs against a Top rated Wildcat secondary. Under 26th year HC Snyder, there are few coaches who have had more pointspread success year in and year out. The Wildcats began the year by devouring C. Ark and Charlotte at home. With a bye next week, prior to the start of the BIG 12 season, expect full focus today against an SEC team whom they will respect. This may well be one of Snyder’s best teams. This year, Snyder adds a more competent offense to his usual bag of tricks for his special teams and defense. At a slightly reduced price due to Vandy’s hot start, it puts this in a price range where they can comfortably get the cover against a Commodore team whom they expose as Faux.
Cheap Thrills Game of the Week
Troy (-6-) at New Mexico State 8:00 PM ET
Sun Belt opener for each! The Aggies, in their last year of FBS play, are looking to make a statement that their program should not have been downgraded. Already this season, in two road games, they stormed back at Arizona State in the 100 degree 4th quarter heat to turn a 37-13 deficit into a 37-31 final in which they outgained the Sun Devils 549-400. Last week, leading rival New Mexico, 30-5 at the end of the 3rd, the Aggies held on for a 30-28 win again amassing 500 yards. They are allowing just 3.3 YPR while QB Rogers is lighting it up for 400 PYPG. As a result, despite the fact that Troy won this contest, 52-6 last year and 52-7 the year before, there will not be any letdown. Troy brings the league’s best QB in Silvers to the fray who is completing 67% of his passes. After a tough loss at Boise in Week #1, Trojans got a confidence-building win with 605 yards in a 34-7 win against Alabama State. Despite a pair of fine outings, the Trojans still have a -44 AFP diff entering this contest because of the Aggies hot start. That has resulted in an adjustment of 10 full points from where this line would have been opening week. Must step in with the value as Troy fans get their cheap thrills in watching their Trojans dominate a team they have destroyed by a combined count of 104-13 in the previous seasons.