Week 3 ATS Report
By Josh Jacobs
Last week’s ATS report focused on football teams that have excelled in a specific situation. To be more direct, the article focused on Week 2 of the preseason and how we all could help improve our bankroll based on trends and data rather then depth charts and player statistics.
More of the same will be applied to this week’s report but instead bearing down on clubs you should highly avoid due to past experiences. For example, when San Diego takes the field on Monday, bettors should be keen to the fact that under head coach Norv Turner’s reign, a 20-20 SU record might not seem unbearable, but a 17-21-1 ATS report has been a thief to those backing the squad (again, trends reflecting Turner’s past 40 preseason coached contests).
Detroit will prepare to face Cleveland on Saturday at 4:00 p.m. EDT and bettors should take this opportunity to run for the hills. The Lions may be 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS during this period of the preseason but a 1-10 ATS skid in its last 11 Game 3’s lends credence to a pass or fade option. Sure, nothing is guaranteed other then death and taxes but until the Lions can turn around a trend like this, backers have been warned. Bodog.com has installed Detroit as a three-point home favorite.
Before the Lions enter the fray during the weekend, a tussle between New England and Philadelphia will take place on Friday at 7:30 p.m. EDT. The first piece of evidence for a solid play on the Patriots is Bill Belichick’s 30-18-4 ATS preseason record since taking the job as coach of Cleveland in 1991. And the numbers don’t stop there as New England is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 preseason Game 3’s combined with a sizzling 5-0 ATS in the last five Game 3’s.
Getting back to the roots of this article, Philadelphia’s 1-7 ATS slump in its last eight Game 3 practices merged with coach Andy Reid’s 12-24 SU and 17-19 ATS preseason record is evidence of another negative run. The best news coming from the land of the Eagle is that a majority of the depth chart will be ready to suit up on Friday. But the biggest headline is what will the organization do about cornerback Lito Sheppard?
Dallas is another group who’s been a dreadful example of poor performing teams in Week 3 dress rehearsals, posting an 8-16 ATS record since 1980. Ok, so the Cowboys have gone 2-1 ATS in the last three Game 3’s but if this 2008 preseason is an indication of things to come then an 0-2 SU and ATS deficit is by no means changing the direction of how money moves on this team. Separate from wagering, Dallas has released news that linebacker Antony Spencer will be out of action for 2-4 weeks after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery. The Cowboys will play host to Houston on Friday, with CBS providing full coverage at 8:00 p.m. EDT.
Taking another angle, home favorites heading into Saturday preseason contests since 1996 have gone a financially debilitating 108-121-6 ATS (not counting this year’s preseason results). Digging deeper reveals that home teams coming off away games are 59-68-3 ATS in Saturday games during the same 1996-2007 period. Indianapolis can fit right into this mold as a meeting with Buffalo on Sunday at 8:00 p.m. EDT could prove to be a worthy spot for some smart wagering.
The Colts do go against the betting grain, however, as a recent 5-1 ATS run in the last six Game 3’s have resulted in backers building on a solid bankroll. Then again a 3-13 ATS backtrack in the last 16 preseason games takes us back to square one with fading Indy. Betting Buffalo could be profitable as the team is 25-20 ATS as a ‘dog since 1983 and are 13-11 ATS in Game 3 spots (since 1980).
Just before we end this report, take a look at the total in the Cleveland-Detroit game on Saturday. Listed as one of the largest totals on the board at 41 points, it should be noted that the ‘under’ has gone 8-4 in the last 12 games (with a total set at this exact number). And with the Lions listed as three-point favorites by most books, a 6-3 ‘under’ record has been in effect in the last nine with home favorites playing in this spot.
Not only will Vegasinsider.com be bringing you the latest NFL news and notes throughout the season but our annual 2008 Football Handicapping Seminar will be taking place from Aug. 23 to the 24. If you don’t plan on traveling out to the red rock casino and resort this weekend then you can click here to listen live to the seminar.
vegasinsider.com.