Week 4 AFC Betting News and Notes Part I
By Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy Covers’ unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC Tidbits from Week 4 Part I. We’ll post Part II tomorrow.
Buffalo
The Bills trailed the Pats 21-0 early and trailed the Raiders 21-3 early. Once again, the offense came into the game flat and sluggish. This team doesn't seem to wake up in the first quarter. Their first big play of the game came on a deflected pass which easily could have been picked. Instead it fell right into Namaan Roosevelt's hands, leading to a field goal. They got another huge break off a deflected pass turning into a Bryan Scott INT for TD before halftime; the second straight week they've had a momentum changing pick six. This team is catching breaks right now, or creating their own luck – whatever you want to call it – but it still wasn’t enough today. Chan Gailey’s defense got gashed by a second tier offense – the Bills aren't going to win many more games without scoring a bunch of points of their own. The defense allowed ten plays of more than ten yards in the second half alone!
Cincinnati
Cinci was 2-of-21 on third down conversions over the last two weeks coming into the game. Today there was no running game and no ability to get into positive down-and-distance situations to improve that third down conversion percentage throughout the first half. Their converted a 3rd-and-1, but failed on 3rd-and-5, 3rd-and-6, 3rd-and-10 and 3rd-and-18. At least they finally tried to take advantage of their lone offensive strength – their explosive downfield receivers. Rookie AJ Green has a breakout game while Jerome Simpson, Jermaine Gresham and Andrew Hawkins all made big play catches downfield. Of course with a rookie QB, a plodding running game and a mediocre offensive line, those downfield passing threats aren't quite as scary as they would be with a better supporting cast. Andy Dalton was saved from a sack-fumble-TD the other way thanks to a rare 'tuck rule' call on replay. That won't show up in the box score, but the 'do-over' changed the whole game. Marvin Lewis had a top 3 statistical defense coming into the game, and the defense really controlled the flow here; stuffing the run all afternoon, setting the stage for Dalton to engineer his first fourth quarter come-from-behind win at the NFL level.
Cleveland
This defense allowed Miami to march up and down the field against them last week. It was more of the same here against the Titans; really getting pushed around as a unit. They gave up an early long drive for a TD, followed by an 80-yard catch and run on the very next Tennessee offensive play. Pat Shurmur’s no-name receiving corps is making plays for Colt McCoy, but teams that settle for field goals don't cover pointspreads as chalk. Where are the big plays for this team, on either side of the football? There’s just not a lot of explosiveness here. Peyton Hillis is a fun fullback to watch, but he's a ham-n-egger, a plodder, not a game breaker. McCoy's 97-yard pick six was an absolute amateurish throw; a desperation heave that was late, over the middle and most inexcusable, on first down! The box score is going to show Cleveland with an edge in this ballgame, but that simply wasn’t the case – lots of garbage time yards for the losing team.
Denver
When a team really puts their nose to the grindstone and goes all out trying to score a TD against this defense, it's going to happen nearly every time. With the game on the line in the fourth quarter at Tennessee last week, the Titans marched down and scored a touchdown without breaking a sweat. Here, as soon as the Packers found a little bit of rhythm, it was boom-boom touchdown, and the scoring never stopped. They gave up six touchdowns without forcing a field goal or creating a red zone stop. I'm still looking for one thing the Broncos do well; giving Seattle, St. Louis, Miami and Jacksonville some real competition in the 'worst team in the league' race. I guess the rookies are bright spots – pass rushing LB Von Miller had two sacks here, and WR Eric Decker has been a real downfield weapon, catching two more touchdown passes. And I have to admire their character – they didn’t quit down 18 early on the highway, cutting the lead to four before halftime, and they scored a late, garbage time TD, leaving the door open for future backdoor covers.
Week 4 AFC Betting News and Notes Part II
By Teddy Covers
Houston
This was a top five red zone offense last year, making their red zone struggles in New Orleans last week something of a surprise. Red zone effectiveness requires two things – a QB whom defenses respect and a running game that can get tough yards between the tackles. The Texans have both. On their 19-play, 95-yard, ten minute touchdown drive to open the game, they overcame three penalties (one on the kick return, then two holding calls) and punched the ball into the end zone. But they settled for three on their next red zone try, and never reached the red zone again after Andre Johnson got hurt. This was a very sloppy game: nine penalties and a whopping three non-offensive touchdowns that were negated because of flags. But Gary Kubiak’s team overcame their mistakes by completely dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage; truly mauling Pittsburgh in the trenches throughout.
Kansas City
The Chiefs made the playoffs last year in large part due to a schedule that saw them face only two other playoff teams; the single weakest schedule in the NFL. The betting markets disrespected KC last postseason, installing them as home underdogs against Baltimore. The markets turned out to be absolutely correct: KC was waxed in that game. Bettors haven’t stopped fading the Chiefs since. Money poured in betting the Chiefs under their season win total even before the injury bug hit, and money has come in against KC just about every week since the preseason started. That money lost today, Kansas City’s best showing of the year. The Chiefs still barely managed to beat a winless team at home. The key here was Matt Cassel getting untracked in the passing game, with Steve Breaston finally having an impact on the other side of Dwayne Bowe. But the pass rush, red zone execution, running game and overall team chemistry still aren’t there for Todd Haley’s team. It might be a while before KC gets to enjoy another victory celebration.
Oakland
This offense is really good, by far the best Raiders attack since Jon Gruden was calling plays for Rich Gannon and Jerry Rice. It's been four weeks, and they still haven't been stopped – Hue Jackson has done a terrific job designing a very versatile attack. It starts up front – this offensive line is as mean and physical as any OL in the NFL, just blowing other teams off the line of scrimmage. Their receivers are blocking downfield, a real problem area in seasons past. The Raiders had 11 plays of ten yards or more in the first half alone! This WR corps is really dynamic and a healthy Kevin Boss at tight end made a difference here. It’s tough to get Oakland off the field on third down, almost always in positive down and distance situations thanks to the powerful running game. But three things killed the Raiders today. It was the first bad game from Jason Campbell that we've seen this year; a QB with a history of inconsistency. Guess who leads the NFL in penalties and penalty yards again! Oakland had 30 in three games coming into this game, and committed nine more here. And the Raiders made red zone mistakes, a shock for a team that hadn’t turned the ball over inside the 20 since 2009.
Pittsburgh
Teams aren't supposed to be able to run on the Steelers…but the Texans did today, basically at will. Troy Polamalu got beat to the outside on several different plays, including a long TD run – has he lost a step? Through the first three games Pittsburgh had the worst turnover differential in the NFL, and they lost the turnover battle again here. The crux of the problem is an offensive line that can't protect Big Ben or open things up for the running game. This OL is a mess right now – tackles Essex and Gilbert are getting beaten on nearly every passing play, not to mention the blocked field goal before halftime. Why isn’t Roethlisberger mentioned in the same breath with the other elite QBs of the NFL? Pittsburgh has no running game and no protection from his OL, but Big Ben masks many of those weaknesses with his ability to withstand pressure in the pocket and fire away downfield with defenders draped all over him. He took an absolute beating in this game and kept his composure right through the final drive.