Week 7 Home Underdogs
By: Michael Hill
We have been writing each week about the success of home underdogs. For the first time all season, home ‘dogs went under .500 ATS for the week, going 1-3 ATS and 1-4 SU. St. Louis (+8.5), which posted an outright 20-17 victory over San Diego, was the lone home underdog to win and cover in Week 6.
Washington (+3) managed to push in its 27-24 loss to Indianapolis, while Denver (+3) narrowly missed out on a chance at an outright victory over the New York Jets after a questionable pass interference call went against them late in the fourth quarter in a 24-20 loss. Tampa Bay (+5) was routed by New Orleans 31-6, while Jacksonville (+3) couldn’t do anything against Tennessee in its 30-3 loss on Monday night.
Here is a week-by-week breakdown of how home underdogs have fared:
Week 1: 5-3 ATS 5-3 SU
Week 2: 4-0 ATS 2-3 SU
Week 3: 4-4 ATS 4-4 SU
Week 4: 3-2 ATS 3-2 SU
Week 5: 3-1 ATS 3-1 SU
Week 6: 1-3 ATS 1-4 SU
Despite the rough weekend, the numbers for home underdogs are still very strong at 20-13 (61%) ATS and 18-17 SU. However, the oddsmakers seem to haven taken note of the success of home underdogs this season as there are just two such opportunities in Week 7. This is easily the fewest number of home underdogs for any one week so far this season. Weeks 1 and 3 featured eight home ‘dogs each, while there were five each in weeks 2, 4 and 6. Week 4 saw the fewest at four.
The two home teams getting points this weekend are Miami (+3), who hosts Pittsburgh, and winless Carolina (+3), who welcomes San Francisco fresh off of its first SU win of the season. The FoxSheets contain plenty of angles that point in Carolina’s favor:
San Francisco at Carolina (+3)
• Carolina is 30-11 ATS (+17.9 Units) vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game since 1992. The average score was Carolina 24.9, Opponent 15.1 - (Rating = 2*).
• San Francisco is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game since 1992. The average score was San Francisco 19.4, Opponent 25.6 - (Rating = 2*).
• Carolina is 13-3 against the spread versus San Francisco since 1992 (6-2 ATS at home).
• San Francisco is 0-2 both ATS and SU as a road favorite this season. The average score was San Francisco 8.0, Opponent 31.0.
As for Miami, the evidence is not as plentiful. The Dolphins are 0-2 both ATS and SU at home this season, while the Steelers are 2-0 both ATS and SU away from Heinz Field so far this year. That includes a convincing 38-13 win as a road favorite in Tampa Bay with Charlie Batch under center. The strongest case for the Dolphins is found in this FoxSheets gem:
Play Against - Any team (Pittsburgh) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. (24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*).