Week Wild Card Weekend News and Notes
Saturday, January 9
Jets @ Bengals-- Cincinnati won its last five home games, all by 7+ points; it is unwise to use last week's game as a yardstick, since Bengals didn't exactly give it much effort. Key indicator for Jets is how they run ball; they ran ball for 127 or less yards in each of last four losses; in their last six wins, Jets ran ball for at 139 yards, 175+ in last four wins. Even if you discount last couple Jet games, where opponents didn't compete 100%, they allowed 8.8 ppg in four games before that, so they play outstanding defense, allowing four TDs on opponents' last 69 drives. In their last four wins, Jets passed for a total of 371 yards (92.8 ypg). Sanchez will have to make plays to win this game. .
Eagles @ Cowboys-- NFL playoff teams that beat their opponent twice in the regular season are 12-7 in the playoff game, but Dallas is 0-2 in that role; they shut out last two opponents (no TD, one FG try on 21 drives) and that came after beating 13-0 Saints in Superdome. Pokes allowed average of 54.8 rushing yards/game in last four games, but they haven't won playoff game since 1996, and Eagles are 7-0 under Reid in their first playoff game of that year. In games vs Philly this year, Romo averaged 7.4/8.2 yards/pass. Dallas won six of last seven games in new stadium; eight of their last nine games stayed under. Eagles scored one TD on 21 drives vs Cowboys this year, after scoring 81 points in their two games in this rivalry LY.
Sunday, January 10
Ravens @ Patriots-- Baltimore (+2) lost 27-21 here back in Week 4, in game where Ravens had twice as much penalty yardage (85-41) as Patriots, with a roughing-passer penalty one of big calls of game. Ravens complained long and loud about it after game; now they get chance at revenge. Baltimore was 3-5 on road this year; this is also their third consecutive away game. Huge injury for New England is Welker's knee injury; their defensive coordinator was taken to hospital during Houston game last week-- not sure of his status for this. Pats are 8-0 at home this year. Five of last six New England games stayed under the total, just like eight of last ten Baltimore games did.
Packers @ Cardinals-- Green Bay won seven of last eight games, losing by a point in Pittsburgh on last play of game, when Big Ben threw for 503 yards in bizarre game; Packers crushed Arizona here LW, but once Minnesota lost, the Cardinals used passive gameplan and yanked Warner very early. Arizona won all three of its home playoff games; they were just 4-4 at home this year. Not sure about Boldin's leg injuries, which are potential problem. Six of last seven Redbird games stayed under the total. Packers have 39 TDs on their last 122 drives over the last 11 games, as Rodgers has proven to be more than an able replacement for Favre. Pack held eight of last nine foes under 82 rush yards.
Wild Card Weekend
By Chris David
The old adage “Defense wins Championships” is often thrown around the gridiron in January and it’s been true for the most part. If you play mistake free football and sound defense, most coaches will tell you that it increases your chances of winning. If those two things happen, you’re also going to see some low-scoring affairs, which help total players cash ‘under’ tickets.
The first round of the playoffs is often tough to gauge from a total perspective since conservative game plans are abound. Looking back at Wild Card weekend the past three years, you can see the previous statement was true and it helped ‘under’ tickets go 8-4 (67%) over this span. Last season, the ‘under’ went 3-1 in the first round of the playoffs. For those of you keeping track, the ‘under’ went 134-118-3 (53%) during the 17-week regular season.
Let’s start the playoffs.
Saturday
New York Jets at Cincinnati (34)
The total on this game is the lowest on the board and it’s very hard to argue an ‘over’ play in this spot. For starters, temperatures are expected to be in the twenties for this afternoon battle and there is a 30 percent chance of flurries. Those conditions should suit these teams perfectly, especially with the matchup on the field.
On paper, the Jets own the league’s best defense (14.8 PPG, 252 YPG) and the Bengals’ unit (18.2 PPG, 301 YPG) isn’t far behind. Offensively, both teams like to run the football which translates into running the clock. New York leads the league with 172 rushing yards per game and Cincinnati (128.5 YPG) has transformed into a running game this year as well despite having QB Carson Palmer behind center. His numbers have dipped considerably (180 YPG) and Chad Ochocinco (1,047 yards, 9 TDs) is the only true threat on the outside for Bengals, plus most believe he’ll be stifled by the Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis.
It’s hard to imagine the Jets won’t be having much success through the air either this weekend, since they probably won’t be throwing much. New York has proven it can win when QB Mark Sanchez doesn’t make mistakes, which means head coach Rex Ryan will handcuff the rookie. In the Jets’ nine victories, seven of them came when the quarterback attempted less than 24 passes.
The Jets have watched the ‘under’ go 5-3 on the road and you can make an argument that the three ‘over’ tickets were lucky. Cincinnati has seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 at Paul Brown Stadium this year, largely due to an inconsistent offense (19.1 PPG).
In case you’re wondering, the Jets’ 37-0 victory over the Bengals last Sunday saw the combined points sneak over the closing number of 33.5. Using this game in your handicapping is worthless for both the total and side.
Dallas at Philadelphia (45)
The Cowboys and Eagles square off for the third time this season and second time in two weeks. Last Sunday, Dallas blanked the Birds 24-0 and the closing number of 47 was never threatened. The Cowboys also stifled the Eagles 20-16 on Nov. 8 at Lincoln Financial Field. The ‘over/under’ on the first go ‘round in Philly was 50, then it dropped three points last week and now the oddsmakers have opened this week’s primetime matchup at 45.
Is the drop too much? Kevin Rogers believes the movement is fair, considering the effort from Dallas’ defense. He said, “After giving up 33 points to the Giants in the Cowboys Stadium opener, the team has held every other opponent to 21 points or less at home this year. And, four of those opponents were held to 10 or less. Tony Romo gets all the headlines in the Lone Star State but the reason why he and head coach Wade Phillips are off the hook this December is clearly because of the defense.”
The defense is giving up 15.6 PPG, which is ranked second in the league. And if you toss out the 33 and 31 points that New York put up against Dallas, the Cowboys would be leading the league in defensive points allowed (13.3). The effort from the defensive unit has helped the ‘under’ go 8-1 in the final nine weeks.
Philadelphia does have the ability to score points albeit against everybody but Dallas. Andy Reid’s team averaged 26.8 PPG and that number would be 29.5 PPG if you take out the weak performances against the Cowboys. The Eagles have watched the ‘over’ go 10-6 but the total went 4-4 on the road.
Even though the two encounters this season went ‘under’ the number, the ‘over’ did cash in three of the previous four. The Eagles watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 last year during the playoffs and even though it’s past history, Dallas has only scored a total of 47 points in its last four postseason games. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 over this stretch.
Sunday
Baltimore at New England (43)
We get a rematch here, as the Ravens and Patriots tangle for the second time this year after knocking heads in Week 4. New England held off Baltimore 27-21 at home on Oct. 4, which saw the combined points go ‘over’ the closing number of 45. The Pats couldn’t muster up any ground game against the Ravens and they were also aided by 85 penalty yards, a few questionable flags too. Baltimore moved the ball well at times but they were hurt by two turnovers and a key drop late in the game. Despite eclipsing the number, the ‘over/under’ dropped two points for Sunday’s clash and probably due to key numbers.
First, the Ravens (16.3) and Patriots (17.Cool have both been stingy when it comes to allowing points this year. And those numbers have helped the ‘under’ cash for both Baltimore (10-6) and New England (11-5). Even though this pair have often hurt ‘over’ players, New England (26.7 PPG) and Baltimore (24.4 PPG) have lit up the scoreboard on occasion. The Ravens have put up 30 points or more in seven games and the Patriots have jumped the 30-point plateau five times.
New England has watched the ‘over’ go 3-2 in games versus playoff teams this season, but the ‘under’ has gone 4-3 in Baltimore’s games against teams playing in the postseason.
Looking at playoff history gives us a better barometer, especially for the coaching trends. John Harbaugh will be taking the Ravens to the postseason for the second straight season. Last year, the Ravens saw their first two playoffs games go ‘under’ before watching the AFC Championship contest against Pittsburgh go ‘over’ the total.
While Harbaugh’s sample size is only three games, the opposite can be said about the Patriots’ Bill Belichick. The three-time Super Bowl winner has played eight playoff games at home during his tenure in New England. In case you’re wondering, the team has gone 8-0 SU and 4-3-1 ATS dating back to the 2001 season. Here’s the kicker for Total Players – the ‘under’ is 7-1 in those games.
Green Bay at Arizona (47)
The Packers-Cardinals Wild Card matchup features the highest total on the board and considering it’s the last game of the week, don’t be surprised to see this number rise with the public action.
Green Bay has been become a public favorite lately and it’s hard to bet against a team that is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven. During that stretch, QB Aaron Rodgers has helped lead the offense to 32.7 PPG. Surprisingly, the ‘under’ has gone 4-3 over that span, largely because the defense has held five of those opponents to 14 or less.
Arizona was a clear-cut ‘over’ team last year (15-5) and four of the ‘under’ tickets happened on the road. This season, it’s been the exact opposite for the Cardinals, who have watched the ‘under’ go 11-5, which includes a 6-2 mark at home. The offense is only averaged 23.4 PPG this year after averaging 27 PPG last season, but the key to more ‘under’ tickets has been the Arizona defense. The unit gave up 26 PPG in 2008 and they’ve trimmed that number to 20 PPG this year, almost a touchdown difference.
If you toss out Green Bay’s 33-7 meaningless victory against Arizona in Week 17, there are decent total trends for each team versus common opponents. The Packers have watched the ‘over’ go 3-0 against NFC West clubs and the Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 versus NFC North clubs.
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