What Bettors Need To Know: AFL on NFL Network
By SCOTT COOLEY
Utah Blaze at Milwaukee Iron (-21)
With a lone hockey game and no basketball, degenerate sports bettors can get their fix by playing the pigskin Friday night.
This week’s Arena Football League game on the NFL Network pits the best team in the league versus the worst.
Milwaukee is off to a 4-1 start (4-1 against the spread) and boasts the best offense in the AFL, outscoring opponents by a margin of 11.0 points per game.
On the other end of the spectrum, Utah secured its only win of the season two weeks ago (1-3 straight up, 2-2 ATS) and has been outgained in total yardage in every game this year.
Heavy dog
Until the Blaze string together a few respectable games, this team will be listed as a multi-touchdown underdog the majority of weeks.
In Week 5, Utah opened as a 24.5-point pup to the league’s second-best team – Chicago. Sharp money quickly came in on the Blaze which dropped the spread to as low as 20.5 during the week but by kickoff it had jumped back up to 22.5.
The game turned out to be a good one for middle bettors as Chicago won by 23 points.
There has been ample line movement in the AFL in 2010 and this game’s lofty number will likely fluctuate until game time.
Sigh of relief
Utah enters this game after a bye week and its first victory of the season.
The 65-46 home win over Bossier wasn’t as much of a lopsided win as it appears. The Blaze offense was outgained by 105 yards but the defense stepped up with 13 pass breakups and four turnovers.
"It was really refreshing to have all the stops tonight," quarterback Brett Elliot said after the win. "It just really builds everybody's attitude. It gives us a sense of relief."
But Elliott and his unit still have work to do as the Blaze rank last in scoring offense (48.3 ppg), total offense (235.3 ypg) and third down conversion rate (35.7 percent). Utah’s 5.5 yards per play mark is one of the lowest in the league.
The defense may have played well during the win, but it will have to be almost mistake-free to slow down the offensive assault of the Iron.
Greise-n lightning
Milwaukee signal-caller Chris Greisen has torched his opposition this season.
The former Arizona Cardinal has yet to throw an interception in 195 pass attempts and leads the AFL in passing efficiency with a 134.8 mark. Greisen’s touchdown total (37) and passing yards per game average (335.6) rank second among league leaders.
Last week, Greisen and his crew posted 71 points on arguably the best defense in Chicago. He completed 20-of-36 for 339 yards with five touchdowns.
“We tried to play some disguises and Greisen is playing as well as anybody in the league right now and it showed tonight,” said Chicago’s coach Mike Hohensee. “He was the difference for them.”
And Greisen has had all the time in the world to survey the field and dissect opposing secondaries. Milwaukee’s offensive line hasn’t allowed one sack all season, and the Blaze have only recorded 4.0 sacks on the year.
Forse to be reckoned with
In order for an AFL quarterback to be successful, he must have an O-line and must have a set of top-flight receivers. Fortunately for Greisen, he has both.
The Iron’s receiving corps is led by Nate Forse. The bullish, 6-4, 220-pound rookie has totaled at least 120 yards in each game this season and ranks fifth in the league with 15 total touchdowns.
And if Forse isn’t already doing enough for this team, he is also the Iron’s long-snapper on kicks.
Milwaukee’s second cog in the receiving wheel is former Louisville Cardinal Tiger Jones. Jones played with Greisen in Georgia during the 2008 season so these two have great chemistry.
Completing the receiving trifecta is the best wideout in the history of the AFL – Damian Harrell. The Florida State product holds the league record for consecutive games with a touchdown reception at 78.
Harrell is 34 years old and a hamstring injury forced him to sit out last week’s game. He should be available for this nationally-televised matchup but if Harrell can’t go expect to see Alvance Robinson in the rotation again. Robinson hauled in four passes for 81 yards and a touchdown last week.
Kicking dirt
Missing extra points in a game is always detrimental, but with a large pointspread like this one it can be the difference between a win and a loss for the bettor.
Point after touchdown attempts are missed all the time in the arena league. Place-kicking is more difficult in the indoor game compared to the NFL because the uprights are closer together and the crossbar is higher.
Utah’s first kicker on the roster this year, Kenneth Byrd, failed to convert on six-of-10 PATs to start the season so he was released.
The Blaze enlisted Ben Scott to handle kicking duties after dispensing of Byrd and the rookie has come on to make 12 of his first 14 extra point tries. However, Scott has only connected on one of his three field goal attempts in two games so this is clearly a special teams sector that isn’t up to par.
“I’m a little disappointed in the kicking game,” said Utah coach Ernesto Purnsley. “We can’t leave points on the field. We’ve got to be able to convert.”