What bettors need to know: Cardinals at Panthers
By MATT SEVERANCE
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-10, 48.5)
Line movement
It has gone unchanged, although it opened at 9.5 points at a few sites. The total has risen about half a point at most books despite the weather report.
Weather
This could potentially keep the game under the total because there is a 60 percent chance of rain and a high in the 40s by kickoff with winds between 10 and 15 mph. For what it's worth, weather.com states that the Cardinals played in three games with precipitation this year and didn't win any of them.
In Week 8
Kurt Warner threw for 381 yards and Arizona led 17-3 in the third quarter, yet Carolina pulled out a 27-23 home victory. As was the problem in many games, the Cards couldn't run the ball and totaled just 50 yards. Carolina scored two touchdowns 44 seconds apart in the third quarter, thanks to an Edgerrin James lost fumble to tie the game at 17-17. Arizona retook the lead 23-17 but a long Steve Smith touchdown reception at the end of the third and a John Kasay field goal in the fourth proved the difference. James lost his starting spot to Tim Hightower following this game.
Injury report
As one would expect, the team that played last week has a concern while the team on the bye is looking quite healthy.
For Arizona, star receiver Anquan Boldin looks to be a game-time decision after injuring his hamstring on a 71-yard touchdown catch last week against the Falcons.
"If it was just up to me, I would say I'm going no matter what," Boldin said to the media. "At the same time, you've got to be smart and not damage it further."
Boldin, who had nine catches for 63 yards and two touchdowns (and a 30-yard run) in the first meeting with Carolina, will undergo treatment all week but doesn't plan to test the hamstring before game time Saturday. Arizona went 3-1 without Boldin (89 catches, 1,038 yards, 11 touchdowns) this season, with all three wins coming at home. Steve Breaston (77 catches, 1,006 yards, three touchdowns) would see a much bigger role if Boldin sits.
The news is positive for rested Carolina as starting defensive tackles Maake Kemoeatu and Damione Lewis and starting right offensive tackle Jeff Otah are practicing this week after being sidelined by injuries late in the regular season.
The Panthers' only injury concern is right guard Geoff Hangartner. He missed early-week practices with a sprained left ankle and could miss Saturday's game.
Run vs. pass
Was that Arizona run defense a fluke last week?
After ranking in the middle of the pack against the run, the Cards held Atlanta's Michael Turner to just 42 yards on 18 carries last week.
As good as Atlanta's running game has been, no ground attack can match Carolina's. In the first half of the season, DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers averaged 114 rushing yards per game. In their final eight games, they averaged 191 yards.
Williams (1,515 rushing yards, 18 touchdowns) was the best back in the league by the end of the year. He had 108 yards and a touchdown in that Week 8 game against the Cardinals. Williams rushed for 560 yards over the final four weeks of the regular season and averaged 5.5 yards per carry. And don't forget backup Jonathan Stewart, who put up 836 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in his rookie year.
Carolina has 21 rushing touchdowns in the past seven games, so if it's a rainy game it would seem to favor the Panthers.
Arizona, meanwhile, has discovered the semblance of a ground game behind a suddenly rejuvenated James (173 total yards in past two games) and faces the NFL's 20th ranked run defense.
So while the Cards will try to establish the run (they ran the ball 28 times and threw 32 last week), don't doubt for a minute that they won't turn to Kurt Warner to pull the upset. He had that huge game Week 8, which was the most passing yards allowed by the Panthers this season until Week 17, and they were down a key defensive starters in that finale versus the Saints. The Cards were the league's worst rushing team during the regular season.
“He's going to throw it 50 times a game,” said Carolina safety Chris Harris of Warner and the league's second-best passing attack. “And since he does that, they're going to get their yards. We've just got to be smart and physical and limit them to what they can do.”
Carolina was ranked 16th against the pass, allowing an average of 211.7 yards per game, and that defense faced the sixth-most pass attempts in the league.
This and that
Arizona is 0-5 on trips to the Eastern time zone this year and have been outscored 202-102 over those games. Warner committed 11 of Arizona's 17 turnovers in those five losses. The Cards are 2-20 in their past 22 trips east. Carolina was 8-0 at home this year, winning by an average score of 29-14. But the closest home result for the Panthers was the game against the Cardinals.
Carolina is 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less this season. Arizona is 4-2 (winning the past three, including last week).
Since 2005, home teams are 6-6 in the divisional round of the playoffs.
In seven postseason games, Carolina's Steve Smith has 45 catches for 739 yards and six touchdowns. The receptions and yards are the most ever by an NFL player in his first seven playoff games.
The Panthers have won the past five meetings against Arizona.