DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES
Time once again to see what the sharps are thinking about the weekend's NFL games. We already had one game this week on Thursday Night. Sharp money there was generally on home favorite Cleveland. Denver rallied in the fourth quarter to get the win.
It's been a good year so far for the sharps. That will barely be a blip on the radar. Let's see what's on tap Sunday and Monday. Games are presented in rotation order.
JACKSONVILLE AT DETROIT: This game hasn't generated too much interest because of turmoil on both teams. Detroit doesn't have a quarterback, and just signed Daunte Culpepper as an emergency solution. Jacksonville's players are fighting with their head coach, and just lost last week to previously winless Cincinnati. How could you bet on either team?! Sharps who did bet took the dog at +7 (I'm seeing 6.5 in most places now) and the Under (as the total has dropped from 45 to 44). I don't expect this to be a game that generates much interest Sunday from the sharps or the public. Too many unknowns.
TENNESSEE AT CHICAGO: Here's another game with quarterback issues. At first it was thought that Rex Grossman would play for the Bears. The sharps hate Rex Grossman. He's just too turnover prone to trust. Late word this week though was that Kyle Orton was going to try and play with his sprained ankle. Is that any better? If Orton were 100% healthy, the sharps would like Chicago for sure getting a field goal at home against an undefeated team coming off an overtime win. Nobody stays undefeated in the NFL. Even powerful New England eventually lost last year. I think the sharps will wait for game day news before deciding on this one. I'm hearing some interest on the Under from the totals guys.
BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND: Early dog and Under money came in on this one. New England opened at -4.5 and is down to -3.5. The total dropped from 43 down to 41.5. I should note though that the line movement stopped at -3.5 rather than going through the field goal. That's a sign that the sharps don't really "love" Buffalo, or the number would have kept on dropping. Or, oddsmakers are concerned about getting public money on the Patriots at -3, so they're keeping it at 3.5 for the time being. I'm interested to see how the public bets this game. New England hasn't looked great as a favorite this year.
NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA: Totals guys loved the Over here, as it went from an opener of 48.5 up to 50. The number 48 is fairly common in the NFL. Oddsmakers opened it a tick higher than that hoping to discourage Over play. Yet, the money STILL came in! That tells you the totals experts had it pegged in the low 50's. Nothing yet of interest on the team side. New Orleans is coming in off a bye. Both of these are dome teams. The stage is certainly set for a shootout at least.
ST. LOUIS AT NY JETS: Early money came in on the Jets at -7. I'm now seeing -8 or -8.5 in most places. That surprised me because the Jets have a bad history as favorites. Some of that may have been sharps taking a position hoping that the public had fallen in love again with Brett Favre after the upset at Buffalo last week. St. Louis looked very bad in the loss to Arizona last week too. I'm guessing this is more about position-taking than anything else. The total has dropped from 47 down to 44.5. A lot of totals guys like playing Unders in the Northeast in the last two months of the season because of the weather. They'll buy positions off the openers on the assumption that the weather is going to be bad. If it turns out to be mild, they can always get off the play on game day by investing back on the Over. There's really no downside to that approach because totals rarely rise off the openers in the Northern cities at this stage of the season.
SEATTLE AT MIAMI: We have another Under here, with the total opening at 44 and going down to 42.5. Under in Miami has been a popular play with sharps this year. Seattle's offense isn't going to scare anyone. This is one of those "bad body clock" games I wrote about earlier this season. Sharps aren't doing much on the team side here because of that. They wouldn't lay a big number with a team like Miami. They've seen enough bad travel games so far that investing big in Seattle just doesn't make any sense right now. The money that did come in came lightly on the road dog. Some old-schoolers will take more than a TD from any team that isn't over .500. It's worked well for them over the years. Seattle hasn't traveled East very well this year though, and lucked into a last second back door cover at Tampa Bay.
GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA: Big move on the total here, as the opener of 48 is now down to 44.5. The totals guys have been on a good run this year. The sportsbooks are reacting quickly when they see which way the wind is blowing. Well, this is a dome game but you know what I mean! The sharps like the Under here. Early money came in on Green Bay at +3. I'm now seeing Minnesota by 2.5 in most places. Usually, when a number sits at 2.5, the sharps are on the dog, and the public is on the favorite. The public hasn't really bet much yet because it's not the weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see that line back up to -3 once the public gets involved. Green Bay at +2.5 qualifies for basic strategy teasers. I haven't mentioned those yet. The Jets and Dolphins will be popular at lines of -8 or -8.5 because you can bring it down to -2 or -2.5 in six-point teasers. Green Bay is in the mix at this line. Chicago might be too once the quarterback situation works itself out.
CAROLINA AT OAKLAND: Here's another teaser game, with Carolina opening at -7.5 and going up to -8.5. The sharps didn't like what they saw from the Raiders last week. That was an ugly performance against Atlanta. It didn't even look like the Raiders were trying. I don't think the Wise Guys will bet them until they see an effort. The total of 38 is already pretty low, so we haven't seen any Under money here. Not much interest in this one, though I'm guessing Carolina is part of many teasers.
KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO: There was early money on the favorite and Over here, which is uncharacteristic of the sharps. San Diego opened at -14. I know some math guys graded it higher than that, so they acted at the critical number. Also, there may have been some position taking figuring that the public would be on the rested Chargers in must-win spot. Wise Guys did this a lot with New England at the bigger spreads last year. I'm seeing -15 or -15.5 now. A couple more ticks and there will be buy backs on the dog. The total is up from 46.5 to 47.5.
INDIANAPOLIS AT PITTSBURGH: This has been a dead spot all week because nobody knows who's going to quarterback the Steelers. As I write this, it's off the board in many places, or sitting circled at Pittsburgh -3 with no total. I can't tell you what the sharps are thinking because they don't have a number to bet at yet! They generally like getting points with Peyton Manning. But, many were rooting for Byron Leftwich last week after the public bet the Redskins line up. They wouldn't mind laying a small number with him. You'll have to read the tea leaves on your own Sunday afternoon with this one.
NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA: The total here has fallen from 45 down to 43. Again, we see early Under money on a game in the Northeast. If the weather turns out to be great, you buy back on the Over and still have a middle set up. Smart way to play. The team side line opened at Philadelphia -3. Some Giants money has made Philly even money at -3 right now, and you have to lay -120 to take the field goal with the Giants in many places. More sentiment on the total than the team side so far.
(SUNDAY WRITE-IN) BALTIMORE AT HOUSTON: Early money hit Baltimore pretty hard, as Houston -2 fell to pick-em right away. Houston's quarterback is out now, meaning the backup (who's still pretty good) will be dealing with the strong Baltimore defense. I'm guessing that was a key reason. The total went up from 41 to 42, probably because both teams went Over last weekend. Note that this is an early kickoff even though it sits at the bottom of your schedule as a write-in game for Sunday...replacing Cincinnati/Houston that had been at the top before a hurricane jumbled things up.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA: There was early underdog and Under sentiment at high openers of Arizona -11 and 49. I'm now seeing Arizona -9 and 46. If Mike Singletary is going to put his stamp on this 49ers team, that's going to mean intense defense and competitive play. So, you can deduce right there that the sharps are expecting Singletary to have an influence after a bye week. Also, J.T. O'Sullivan has been benched at quarterback. He was an "over" quarterback because he either moved the ball or made a lot of turnovers. Replacing him may be worth a field goal on the total right there.
The totals guys were very busy this week. We've seen a lot of team side action already, and there may be more on game day from the sharps once the public starts betting..
Nick is probably the last real bookmaker left in NV and a nice guy as well.
Tks ...I didn't know that.
I like his write ups.
BOL
🙂
Nobody would take a bigger bet in Vegas than when Nick was at the Horseshoe,I had the pleasure of working with him twice while I was in Vegas.
Nick is probably the last real bookmaker left in NV and a nice guy as well.
Jay Kornegay at the Hilton is a cool cat as well.