Where the value is betting totals in NCF bowl games
By DAVID PAYNE
Overs torched the books in November.
Now, oddsmakers are fighting back in the bowls by jacking up totals.
The average total of this year’s bowl games is 57.4. That’s more than a four-point increase from the average totals of games in the final three weeks of the regular season.
No doubt, scoring increases during bowl season. Teams are more aggressive, more likely to pull out trick plays and more likely to take chances on fourth down. But four points is a significant increase; in fact, it’s the largest such increase in the past three years.
Does that give the under added value? Not necessarily.
Guess what the average total score in this year’s first four bowls was: 57.4, with three of the first four going over.
Over the past three bowl seasons, scoring has increased less than a field goal in comparison to games played in the final three weeks of the regular season. During that same time, totals in bowl games have risen only 1.4 points compared to totals of games played in the final three weeks.
That’s why this year’s four-point boost to the average bowl total stands out, especially considering the play-reducing changes to the clock rules.
But the fact is offenses from NFL to college are ahead of defenses these days. Eventually, the defenses will catch up, but right now they are way behind.
The result has been a jump in the number of ultra-potent offenses. Hawaii led the nation in scoring last season 43.3 points per game.
Five teams are averaging more than 43.3 points this season.
There are 11 teams scoring more than 40 points, compared to only seven teams last season.
So while the oddsmakers are inflating totals, they may not have done it at a high enough rate to make bettors shy away from betting overs.
TEAM TOTAL TRENDS
Maryland: The Terrapins have gone under the total in four of five bowl appearances under head coach Ralph Friedgen.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes have gone over the total in five of seven bowl appearances under Jim Tressel.
Texas Tech: The Red Raiders have gone over the total in four of their last five bowl games.
California: All five of the Bears’ bowl appearances under head coach Jeff Tedford have gone over the total.
USC: The Trojans have surpassed total in four straight bowl games.