Wild Card Round Line Watch
By Art Aronson
Game to bet on now
Kansas City at Houston (+3)
The Texans are a home dog, as well they should be. Kansas City are, on paper anyway, the most dangerous wild card team in the field. The Chiefs come in with 10 wins in a row (cautionary note – they were just 1-3 ATS in the final four games of the regular season) and still somewhat under the radar. Most importantly, over the second half of the season the Chiefs dominated teams when they go on the road – 20-point win at Baltimore, 14-point win at Oakland, 30-point win at San Diego, 16-point win at Denver. Early betting is heavily on the Chiefs in this one, so if you can grab KC and have to lay only the field goal, it could be a smart move. Books are cautious about adding that extra half-point, but may have no choice in this one.
Game to wait on
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+2.5)
Reputation could be one factor as bettors have jumped hard on the Steelers in this one in early wagering. The Bengals always seem to find a way to lose playoff games, and the foundation of the team came crumbling down in mid-December when franchise QB Andy Dalton suffering a thumb fracture trying to make a tackle. A.J. McCarron is 1-1 as the replacement, and McCarron brings oodles of confidence and zero experience into the biggest game of his pro life. Home field might not be of much help in this one, because the road team won both games this season – the Steelers winning that Dalton/thumb game only a few weeks ago, 33-20. The Steelers scored a lot of points over the final half of the regular season.
Total to watch
Seattle at Minnesota (42)
What? 42? Yes, Pete Carroll gets all weird when the Seahawks get near the goal line, but Seahawks have been crushing it lately. Books must be looking at the game these teams played in Minnesota in early December (Seattle, 38-7) and figuring that coaches get a little more conservative in the playoffs. But the Vikings aren’t the same team they were a month ago, and they are averaging almost 33 points a game over the last three. Point-loving wagerers have to banging the over pretty hard on this one.