Wiseguys share their favorite NFL season win total Over betting picks
By Covers.com
Super Bowl 50 was less than three weeks ago but already football bettors can take a swing at the 2016 NFL season win totals, which were officially released Thursday afternoon by CG Technology sportsbooks in Las Vegas.
Covers had an exclusive sneak peek at these odds Wednesday night and turned them over to the Covers Experts handicappers, asking them to give their favorite Over and Under season win total plays for the upcoming NFL season.
Here are the Experts’ best Over NFL season win total bets:
Marc Lawrence: Baltimore Ravens Over 7.5 (-105)
“The other side of the AFC North equation, the Ravens were ravaged with injuries in 2015. Despite the hard luck, they managed to outgain foes by 71 yards per game during the second half of the season - a strong indicator of head coach John Harbaugh’s fortitude and the team’s refusal to quit. A good draft puts them right back in the mix in this division.”
“Big” Al McMordie: Green Bay Packers Over 10.5 (-115)
“Last year, the Packers' season was derailed when Jordy Nelson suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. He'll be back on the field in 2016, and I expect the Packers' offense to shine once again. The
Packers also catch a break by matching up against the AFC South division teams, and the two better teams – Colts and Texans - from that division must play at Lambeau, while Green Bay will get the two doormats – Jaguars and Titans - on the road.”
Will Rogers: Tennessee Titans Over 5.5 (-130)
“With a year to acclimate himself into the system and with the team getting him some additional help on both sides of the field in the offseason, Marcus Mariota should improve dramatically in 2016. We saw flashes of his brilliance last year and the team will also benefit from a very favorable schedule. I think the Titans can at the very least reach the elusive six-win plateau this season.”
AAA Sports: New England Patriots Over 10.5 (-120)
“New England faded down the stretch last season, mainly because of injuries. With time off to heal up and to acquire some new personnel, the Patriots will be a lot better prepared to make another legitimate shot at a Super Bowl run. Tom Brady will be extra motivated after watching Peyton Manning hoist the Lombardi Trophy last year as well.”
Teddy Covers: Detroit Lions Over 7 (-115)
“The Lions aren’t a particularly sexy team, especially if Calvin Johnson really retires, so their win total is too low. Detroit closed out the season by going 6-2 down the stretch, and they return the core of their team, primed for a .500 or better season in 2016.
SPS Investors: Arizona Cardinals Over 9.5 (-120)
“We expect to see an even more motivated Carson Palmer under center, having a full season back from his injury. David Johnson will be much more explosive in the backfield with another year under his belt and the receiving corps of Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown is one of the most talented in the league. The Cardinals are arguably the most complete team in all phases of the game and we wouldn't be surprised to see them in the Super Bowl next season. It would be almost shocking if they did not have double digit wins in the 2016.”
Steve Merril: Detroit Lions Over 7 (-115)
“Detroit was terrible early on last season, but the Lions were much improved down the stretch. They went just 1-7 SU over their first eight games, but they went 6-2 SU over their last eight games of the season. Detroit won a total of 7 games in 2015, but my numbers say they should have won 9 games. The Lions have been priced to repeat last year’s performance, but Detroit will be improved, so Over 7 season wins has value.”
Bryan Power: Cleveland Browns Over 4.5 (-130)
“The juice is already -130, so I envision the number will get to five closer to the regular season. The Browns were a bad team last year, no doubt, but they were also a bit unlucky, going 1-5 SU in one-score games and having a minus-9 turnover margin. Simply divorcing themselves from Johnny Manziel makes them a better team. Whomever is chosen in the draft, Cal's Jared Goff or North Dakota State's Carson Wentz, will be an upgrade at that position. Who Hue Jackson was, maybe, the franchise's first good hire at the head coaching position since returning to the league in 1999. After falling from seven to three wins last season, a bounce back should be expected. I can definitely see five wins next year and maybe even six.”
Jesse Schule: New Orleans Saints Over 7 (Even)
"The Saints have plenty of work to do, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They still have Drew Brees, and plenty of talent to build around. They should be able to finish next season with at least as many wins as losses."
Wiseguys share their favorite NFL season win total Under betting picks
By Covers.com
Super Bowl 50 was less than three weeks ago but already football bettors can take a swing at the 2016 NFL season win totals, which were officially released Thursday afternoon by CG Technology sportsbooks in Las Vegas.
Covers had an exclusive sneak peek at these odds Wednesday night and turned them over to the Covers Experts handicappers, asking them to give their favorite Over and Under season win total plays for the upcoming NFL season.
Here are the Experts best Under NFL season win total bets:
Marc Lawrence: Pittsburgh Steelers Under 10.5 (-125)
“A bit surprised at this number, especially considering the Steelers owned a 356-yard defense last season - one that has major holes in the secondary. Coupled with the competitive division in which they reside, this win total looks like a stretch. No surprise to see this quickly shrinking to 10 wins sooner than later.”
“Big” Al McMordie: Carolina Panthers Under 10.5 (-130)
“The Panthers won 15 games last season, but had the benefit of playing the creampuff AFC South division teams. This year, they'll be matched up against the much more difficult AFC West division. Even worse for Carolina, it will play games against six playoff teams from last season - Broncos, Redskins, Seahawks, Cardinals, Chiefs, and Vikings. The fact that it lost the Super Bowl may also have a negative effect on Carolina.”
Will Rogers: Los Angeles Rams Under 7 (Even)
“A move to the big city, combined with questions at the quarterback position make this one a no-brainer in my opinion. The team obviously does have some talent on both sides of the ball – running back Todd Gurley - but the external situational factors, like transitioning to the bigger market, playing in a temporary stadium and being in what should once again be a very competitive division, make the Under a very intriguing wagering possibility for the L.A. Rams this season.”
AAA Sports: Cleveland Browns Under 4.5 (Even)
“Will the rebuilding process ever end in Cleveland? Once again the team is starting from scratch on a number of different levels, including at the starting quarterback. Fans, players and management are all frustrated and it's hard to imagine the team fielding a competitive unit this season. Cleveland needs to be looking ahead to next 2017 already.”
Teddy Covers: Denver Broncos Under 9.5 (-120)
“Denver went 9-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less in the regular season last year - and 2-0 in the playoffs - with the luck factor working strongly in their favor. They tied for the NFL lead in non-offensive touchdowns. With significant quarterback issues looming, and every team in their division getting better, I don’t expect Denver’s defense to be able to carry them to 10 wins this year.”
SPS Investors: Carolina Panthers Under 10.5 (-130)
“It was a banner year for the Panther's, but we expect it to be short lived. Much issue has been made about the character of Cam Newton and the expectations already placed on this team heading into the offseason for next year. We don't believe they will be able capture lightning in the bottle twice and expect them to regress just a bit. The NFC South was one of the laughing stocks of the league, but we expect every team to improve next year and give Carolina a run for its money. A couple of divisional losses and what should be a tough non-conference slate will result in them achieving 10 or less wins in 2016.”
Steve Merril: Carolina Panthers Under 10.5 (-130)
“Carolina was a huge surprise last season as they went 15-1 SU in the regular season and cruised to a Super Bowl appearance. However, their season wins total was heavily bet Under prior to last season, so they exceeded their lowly expectations by a great margin. Now Carolina is being priced as an elite team. But with expected regression, the Panthers will be hard-pressed to win more than 10 games this season against a more difficult slate of opponents. The Panthers will face six teams that qualified for the playoffs last season and will play 12 of their 16 games against teams that went 7-9 SU or better.”
Bryan Power: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 6.5
“I was a big proponent of betting the Bucs over their season win total last year. Those who got the number at six would have obviously pushed. I don't see them increasing their number of wins for a second straight year, however. It's like the reverse of the Browns, who saw their win total decrease by four games last season and thus should expect an automatic increase next year. Bill James calls this the 'Plexiglas principle.' There's a real lack of talent on both sides of the ball here.”
Jesse Schule: Kansas City Chiefs Under 9 (-115)
"Kansas City was one of the worst teams in the NHL through the first six weeks of the season, losing five of their first six games. They went on to run the table and win nine in a row, but during that span they played only one playoff team, and their win over Denver came in a game when Peyton Manning battled injury and threw a bunch of interceptions. Kansas City is overrated heading into next season."