Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.
Mark Drumheller
If you think there isn't any football to bet on this weekend, think again. Whatever the Rock is cooking for the third installment of the XFL is admittedly a far cry from the National Football League, but every weekend with football on the TV is a good one in my book.
Spring football is here to stay, at least for 2023, with the XFL season kicking off this weekend and carrying us until May. The XFL, not to be confused with the USFL (which re-launched last spring and returns in April), will feature some familiar NFL faces on the field and the sidelines. As you will see by the list below, there is a strong NFL influence from ex-players and coaches.
Here are the XFL's eight head coaches:
Arlington Renegades - Bob Stoops
DC Defenders - Reggie Barlow
Houston Roughnecks - Wade Phillips
Orlando Guardians - Terrell Buckley
San Antonio Brahmas - Hines Ward
Seattle Sea Dragons - Jim Haslett
St. Louis Battlehawks - Anthony Becht
Vegas Vipers - Rod Woodson
The quarterback is the most critical position on the field, especially in these secondary leagues. How much you should let it impact your wagers is up for debate (I will have more on that later), but it's a good starting point when targeting teams for early success. So here are each team's starting quarterbacks for Week 1.
Arlington Renegades - Drew Plitt
DC Defenders - Jordan Ta'amu
Houston Roughnecks - Cole McDonald (unconfirmed)
Orlando Guardians - Paxton Lynch
San Antonio Brahmas - Jack Coan
Seattle Sea Dragons - Ben DiNucci
St. Louis Battlehawks - A.J. McCarron
Vegas Vipers - Luis Perez
What you should know before wagering on the XFL:
Let's start with the rules. There is some fun stuff baked into the rulebook regarding double-forward passes and overtime, but the most important rules revolve around the game's pace (think totals). Scoring always seems challenging in spring football, especially the first few weeks, due to the lack of cohesion. So here are the rules I highlighted because of how they will impact scoring for bettors targeting totals.
If you are betting totals, pay attention.
Kickoff returns set the offense up for success. The XFL kickoff returns are unique as both teams line up five yards away from each other at the receiving team's 30- and 35-yard lines. It resulted in only a 3% touchback rate in 2020, so starting field position will be solid.
We don't kick extra points around here. Instead, the XFL gives coaches three options after a touchdown. A run or pass from the 2-yard line (1 point), 5-yard line (2 points), or 10-yard line (3 points). In 2020, teams opted for two 49% of the time compared to going for one just 41%. As the season progressed, more teams went for three.
The running clock. There is a 35-second play clock, but more importantly, the clock runs on incompletions and out-of-bounds plays outside the last two minutes of each half. Therefore, fewer plays equate to fewer opportunities to score.
Some additional betting tips to keep in mind
Home-field advantage versus travel advantage. A major win for the fans is that XFL teams will play in their home cities in front of screaming fans. Home-field advantage will be a legitimate factor, especially for indoor teams like San Antonio and St. Louis. However, all eight teams are based in Arlington where they practice during the week before flying out to the home cities for games. So while there is a home-field advantage, the travel aspect of it is non-existent. Does this provide a slight advantage to the Arlington Renegades? They are the only team that doesn't have to leave the hub for its home games, but their opponent each week isn't traveling either. It's something for bettors to think about.
NFL experience doesn't always translate to success. The market usually overvalues NFL experience in these leagues, especially at quarterback. Most bettors want to gravitate toward familiar names, but I've had a lot of prior success fading the guys like Christian Hackenberg, Zach Mettenberger or Landry Jones. As a result, I put more stock in the QB's experience in these leagues, the offensive system and the coaching staff's previous success. It's a quick ramp-up, unlike an NFL training camp, so don't fall into the trap of thinking a player's cup of coffee as a camp arm is enough to cash your bet this weekend.
Best Bet: Seattle Sea Dragons +1.5 at DC Defenders
I can't get out of here without giving you guys a winner. I will have a video with my best bets for Saturday's action to kick off the season, but here is one for Sunday.
The Houston Roughnecks were the class of the XFL in 2020, mainly because of June Jones' explosive offense. This time around, he brings his version of the Run-and-Shoot to Seattle as offensive coordinator. The Sea Dragons' starting QB Ben DiNucci should have no problems picking up Jones' scheme quickly. With playmakers like Josh Gordon and T.J. Hammond, Seattle's offense should have early success, putting pressure on DC to keep pace.
The Defenders defense looks solid, but the offense sounds like it will be more efficient than explosive. That can be problematic if they fall behind early in the season's opening week. Despite having some talented pieces like QB Jordan Ta'amu and former Baylor Bear running back Abram Smith, I don't think DC can make enough big plays to hold off the Dragons. I'm betting that June Jones' offense continues its XFL success.
Gambling picks for Week 1 of the XFL
Jordan Dajani
If you are already missing football, then you're in luck, because a new league kicks off this weekend. The XFL is back, and there's plenty to be intrigued by this spring. Rod Woodson and Hines Ward are new head coaches, there are some new rule changes to keep an eye on and then the rosters include some names all football fans will know.
Former All-Pro wideout Josh Gordon is a member of the Seattle Sea Dragons, former Pittsburgh Steelers wideout Martavis Bryant is with the Vegas Vipers and even one of the most famous NFL punters from the past decade returns to the field, as Marquette King is booting the ball for the Arlington Renegades.
One of the most fun aspects about this league is that we don't know what to expect. So naturally, we are going to blindly gamble on it. Every week, I'll be posting my ATS picks for the XFL on CBSSports.com. Let's go ahead and jump into Week 1. To view our XFL Week 1 Power Rankings, click here.
All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook
Vegas Vipers at Arlington Renegades (-2.5)
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET (ABC)
This is Bob Stoops vs. Rod Woodson. Stoops' Renegades could be the preseason No. 1 team, as they have an impressive coaching staff, a quarterback in Kyle Sloter and a star tight end in Sal Canella -- who played with Sloter in the USFL. I will say, Sloter didn't play as well as I thought he would for the New Orleans Breakers -- even though he was named All-USFL. Sloter threw the second-most interceptions with 12, compared to just nine touchdowns. That said, I still believe he has potential, and could be one of the better signal-callers.
Vipers quarterback Luis Perez is a spring league veteran, and he has a few notable targets like Geronimo Allison, Jeff Badet and Martavis Bryant. But I'm interested to see how good this defense is. That unit has former NFL sack leader Vic Beasley coming off the edge. Most will likely have the Renegades winning this game, but I'm going to go out on a limb and take the underdog Vipers. Coach Woodson starts the season off with an upset victory.
The pick: Vipers +2.5
Projected score: Vipers 24-21
Orlando Guardians at Houston Roughnecks (-2)
Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
If you look around at different XFL power rankings, the majority of sportswriters are expecting the Guardians to be the worst team in the league. While that means absolutely nothing, I see where they are getting that from. The quarterback room consists of Deondre Francois, Quinten Dormady and Paxton Lynch. Orlando does have some playmakers at wide receiver, however. Cody Latimer and Eli Rogers may be players you recognize, and then JaVonta Payton led the SEC with 22.9 yards per catch in 2021 at Tennessee (min. one reception per game).
I'm not sure the Roughnecks have an elite quarterback room either, but Wade Phillips is a good coach. If you're a Maryland Terrapins fan, the Roughnecks are the team for you (behind the D.C. Defenders, of course). They have four former Terps in the secondary with Sean Davis, A.J. Hendy, William Likely and Jordan Mosley. The Roughnecks were the XFL's best team in 2020, going a perfect 5-0 before the league shut down due to COVID-19. I'll lay the points with the favorites.
The pick: Roughnecks -2
Projected score: Roughnecks 16-7
St. Louis Battlehawks (-2) at San Antonio Brahmas
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (ABC)
A.J. McCarron is likely going to be leading the Battlehawks into ... battle, and I think he could impress some people in this league. He has a big target in Hakeem Butler out of Iowa State, who was a fourth-round pick back in 2019, but didn't catch on at the next level. As for the Brahmas, you'll recognize running back Kalen Ballage and of course head coach Hines Ward. Some think San Antonio could be an underrated team. Maybe it is, but I'm going to lean to McCarron in Week 1.
The pick: Battlehawks -2
Projected score: Battlehawks 23-20
Seattle Sea Dragons at DC Defenders (PICK)
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Defenders are the No. 1 team in Bryan DeArdo's power rankings, so I'm going to have to roll with them. I haven't watched much of quarterback Eric Dungey, so that's going to be an interesting storyline to follow. I'm curious to see if he's the best quarterback on roster with Jordan Ta'amu and D'Eriq King there as well, but I'm picking D.C. because of its defense. Gregg Williams is a very well-known NFL assistant/villain, and then linebacker Reggie Northrup is a veteran linebacker and MMA fighter that takes the practice field with a cigarette in his mouth.
I think Seattle is an interesting team -- especially with Josh Gordon at receiver. Ben DiNucci could be a solid quarterback as well. Jim Haslett is an experienced defensive mind, but I'm going to ride with the Defenders.
The pick: DC Defenders PICK
Projected score: Defenders 14-13