This guy writes for Vegas Insider and is documented 12-1 on Thurs night.
Thursday night breakdown
Dec. 4, 2002
By Christian Alexander
VegasInsider.com
Fresno State (3-8, 0-7) vs. Louisiana Tech (4-7, 3-4 )
Thursday, December 5th at 8:00 PM
TV: ESPN2
Surface: Natural Grass
Line: Fresno State –1
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The long and winding road of Thursday night football finally comes to an end this week. What started on August 22nd in Charlottesville, VA with Colorado State and Virginia will come full circle this Thursday in cozy Ruston, LA, where Louisiana Tech will face off with Fresno State.
You don’t have to tell Fresno State and coach Pat Hill about how long a season this has been. In fact, Fresno will complete the longest season in the nation, one that began August 23 with a 23-21 loss at Wisconsin.
However, like the Badgers who are headed to the Alamo Bowl, this campaign will once again be capped off with a postseason game as the Bulldogs have accepted a bid to play in the Silicon Valley Classic in San Jose. This will mark the third year in a row that Pat Hill has brought his team to San Jose for the New Year's Eve bowl.
For some Bulldogs, 2002 hasn’t exactly gone as planned though. The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs would certainly qualify, as this season has been one of disappointment. After entering the Western Athletic Conference in 2001 and promptly winning the league championship, it was understandable that there were high hopes for coach Jack Bicknell's team in 2002. At 3-4 in conference and 4-7 overall, it goes without saying that the expectations have not been met.
Yet, there is a palpable sense of excitement in the air this week as La. Tech will play host to a nationally televised game for the first time in school history when the ESPN2 crew invades Joe Aillet Stadium. This game represents a chance to not only end on a high note but also get back to sea-level in conference.
The problem this season for La. Tech certainly hasn’t been offense, as its national rank in total offense (17th , 424.5 yards pg) and passing (7th , 310.1 yards pg) would indicate.
No, the Bulldogs' problems lie in two areas, defense and the second half. Allowing just under 35 points per game, the Louisiana Tech defense has certainly not lived up to its end of the bargain, particularly through the air, where opposing offenses have drilled them for 259.3 yards per game. As for the second half of games this season, it's important to note that La. Tech has been outscored in nine of 12 games after halftime.
On the other hand, for Fresno State the second half has been just fine, thank you very much. The second half of the season, that is. As he was able to do last year, Pat Hill once again rallied his Bulldogs to a perfect record in November and secured the aforementioned Silicon Valley Classic bowl berth. When Fresno State left the field after a heartbreaking loss against Hawaii on October 25th , with a 4-5 record, that bowl game seemed a million miles away.
There are a number of different factors and questions to sort through when weighing this one. Bowl bid in hand and with “nothing to play forâ€, is Fresno State up for a tough road test or just looking forward to New Years Eve in San Jose? With no bowl game to be had, is Louisiana Tech anxious to end the season with a W or just end the season? Can Fresno State be the first team to win at Joe Aillet Stadium this year? (La. Tech is 4-0 SU at home this season) Will Louisiana Tech seek revenge for its only WAC loss last year which came at the hands of Fresno State?
All important questions to be sure. However, I think the keys to this game can be found in three areas: special teams, defense and turnovers. In those categories, Fresno State holds an advantage.
On special teams the Fresno State combination of K Asen Asparuhov and P Jason Simpson represent the two best players in the WAC at their respective positions. In a tight ballgame on the road, having a strong hand in special teams can often be the difference between winning and losing.
Defensively, the woes of Louisiana Tech have already been told. Fresno State’s defensive unit, while not dominating, certainly holds a distinct advantage over their counterparts from Louisiana. Especially in the area of turnovers, which leads me to the last reason.
For all the yards and touchdowns he has piled up this season, Louisiana Tech QB Luke McCown has thrown more interceptions (18) than touchdowns (17). Fresno State senior safety Cameron Worrell, who leads the Bulldogs with four interceptions, will surely be on the prowl for more Thursday night. Winning the turnover battle will be crucial for Fresno State. You would think with the pass happy La. Tech offense, Worrell and the rest of the Fresno secondary will get plenty of chances.
Finally, while comparing scores from common opponents can often be misleading, once you are this late in the season it can usually tell quite a lot. In this case, it's interesting to note that Fresno State and Louisiana Tech share six common opponents, and remarkably, five of those have been played in the exact same home or away setting. Consider this:
Rice: Both teams played at Rice with Fresno winning by three points and La. Tech losing by 17. Advantage: Fresno State
San Jose: Both teams played at San Jose with Fresno winning by three points and La. Tech losing by 12. Advantage: Fresno State
SMU: The one game played on different stages with Fresno playing the Mustangs at home and La. Tech facing them on the road. While Fresno won by 23 points, La. Tech lost by three. Venue aside, Advantage: Fresno State
Nevada: Both teams played Nevada at home with Fresno winning by 8 and La. Tech winning by 3. Advantage: None
Tulsa: Both teams played the Golden Hurricane at home with Fresno winning by 19 and La. Tech winning by 44. Advantage: None
Boise State: Both teams had to travel to Boise for this one and paid dearly for it as Fresno lost by 46 and La. Tech lost by 26. Advantage: None
I feel that in comparing six common opponents from this season, Fresno State holds an advantage in three of those games while La. Tech doesn’t compare favorably in a single one speaks volumes. Combine that with the late-season momentum that Fresno State once again has going, and I think they have the ability to pull this one out.
No doubt Louisiana Tech will put forth a good effort here, especially at home and in front of the nation,but I feel they will come up just short in the end.
Final score: Fresno State 31 – Louisiana Tech 29
Christian Alexander's Thursday night season record:
Alexander hit his 11th straight Thursday night game in a row as his prediction of Ole Miss (-8) was a winner. The final score was 24-12 Mississippi as the Rebels held off the Bulldogs to win the annual “Egg Bowl†and become eligible for a postseason bowl game. Alexander’s season record for Thursday night games stands at 12-1.
Week 1: Colorado State (+2.5) -- WIN (Colorado State 35, Virginia 29)
Colorado State vs. Virginia
Week 2: Syracuse (+2.5) -- LOSS (BYU 42, Syracuse 21)
Syracuse vs. BYU
Week 3: OFF - NFL opening night
Week 4: Virginia Tech (-12.5) -- WIN (Virginia Tech 47, Marshall 21)
Marshall vs. Virginia Tech
Week 5: Auburn (-2) -- WIN (Auburn 42, Mississippi State 14)
Auburn vs. Mississippi State
Week 6: Louisville(+15.5) -- WIN (Louisville 26, Florida State 20)
Florida State vs. Louisville
Week 7: OFF
Week 8: Boston College (+8.5) -- WIN (Virginia Tech 28, Boston College 23)
Virginia Tech vs. Boston College
Week 9: Maryland (-1.5) -- WIN (Maryland 34, Georgia Tech 10)
Maryland vs. Georgia Tech
Week 10: N.C. State (PK) -- WIN (N.C. State 38, Clemson 6)
N.C. State vs. Clemson
Week 11: Colorado State (PK) -- WIN (Colorado State 31, Air Force 12)
Colorado State vs. Air Force
Week 12: Cincinnati (+9.5) -- WIN (Cincinnati 24 – Louisville 14)
Cincinnati vs. Louisville
Week 13: Louisville (-1) -- WIN (Louisville 20, Southern Mississippi 17 - OT)
Louisville vs. Southern Mississippi
Week 14: Pittsburgh (+20.5) -- WIN (Miami 28, Pittsburgh 21)
Pittsburgh vs. Miami
Week 15: Mississippi (-8) -- WIN (Mississippi 24, Mississippi State 12)
Mississippi State vs. Mississippi
Week 16: Fresno State vs. Louisiana Tech -- RESULT PENDING
I'm not sure if all of his facts and figures are correct (like Fres St 0-7 conf record) but his record speaks for itself.