RECAP:
After going 4-1 yesterday, we have gone a whopping 13-4 over the past two days, and are up a whopping +27.6 UNITS since the All-Star break... enjoy this afternoon's plays on the house!
2/16 SUBSCRIPTION AFTERNOON NBA:
Philadelphia @ New Jersey 1:05 PM EST
New Jersey -6 over Philadelphia (4 Units)
Sunday kicks off on ABC with the struggling 76ers facing the New Jersey Nets in a matchup of the last two Eastern Conference champions... but while the 76ers have struggled to recapture their magic of two seasons ago, the Nets are once again at the top of the Eastern Conference picture with a 35-17 record, including a whopping 23-2 mark at home... And when it comes to covering the spread at home, there are few teams better than the New Jersey Nets at taking care of business...
Since last season, the Nets are an incredible 31-12 ATS at home, including a 31-10 ATS mark when favored by three points or more... when the line jumps to six points or more, the Nets are an awe-inspiring 22-6 ATS... and as a home favorite against Eastern Conference competition, New Jersey is an amazing 25-6 ATS in their last 31 games, inlcuding a 12-3 ATS mark this season, with one ATS loss coming by a mere half point, and the other two losses coming as a double-digit favorite... Against teams with a losing road mark, the Nets are a whopping 17-3 ATS... and with the 76ers just 10-13 on the road and having lost six straight games ATS, they look to be easy pickings for a Nets team that is starting to get healthy with the return of Rodney Rogers to active duty...
On the flipside of this coin, the Sixers are still battling health issues, as Todd MacCulloch, Monty Williams, and Samuel Dalembert are still on the sidelines, and super-sub Aaron McKie looks to be doubtful for this game as well, leaving the 76ers relatively short-handed for this contest... and considering that Philly has allowed at least 102 points to New Jersey in their last three head-to-head matchups, they can use all the healthy bodies on offense that they can find... throw in the fact that the trade deadline is coming up, and several 76ers are rumored to be on the blocks, and it's easy to see why their defense is coming up short lately...
In each of their last six games, Philadelphia has faltered on defense by allowing at least 97 points in each contest, and a gaudy average of 102.5 ppg in that timeframe... the Nets on the other hand have held each of their last eight Eastern Conference opponents at home to 90 points or less, and have held their last four EC teams at home to 78 points or less... most importantly, New Jersey is a perfect 15-0 SU at home against Eastern Conference opponents, with their MINIMUM margin of victory being eight points, and their average margin of victory a whopping 18.2 ppg...
There are two additional factors that convince us even more that New Jersey is the play here... on one day's rest, the 76ers are a terrible 7-19 ATS while the Nets are a rock solid 19-10 ATS... and more importantly, while the Nets are 22-8 ATS this season when the line is six points or more either way, the Sixers are a pathetic 1-14-1 ATS when the line is 6+ points either way... with today's line resting right at six, we are fully in the corner of the Nets...
FINAL PREDICTION: NEW JERSEY 97, PHILADELPHIA 82
San Antonio @ Sacramento 3:35 PM EST
San Antonio +5.5 over Sacramento (2 Units)
San Antonio/Sacramento Under 195 (3.5 Units)
The red-hot Spurs finally finish off one of their most successful road trips in recent history when they head to Sacramento to take on the Kings... San Antonio has rattled off seven straight wins during their arduous nine-game road trip (which ends today), after opening the absurd trek with a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves... That loss in Minnesota marked the ONLY time that the Spurs have lost by more than five points since December 16th... since that date, San Antonio is a whopping 21-6 straight up, with five of those losses coming by a combined thirteen points... having the Spurs on the receiving end of points right now is a very positive thing, for while the Spurs are a very impressive 7-1 ATS as a road dog in their last eight games, they are also a team that seems to gets stronger when on the road, as San Antonio is an exceptional 7-1 ATS on the road after four or more consecutive road games...
Since the start of last season, San Antonio is a stellar 12-3 ATS as a dog of four points or more... and despite the Kings having won each of their last two games by double digits, their ability to make it three straight dominating wins is impeded by the fact that they are just 1-4 ATS after two straight double-digit wins... toss in the fact that Sacramento is just 3-6 ATS in their last nine home games against Western Conference opponents, and we have a line that shows us some serious value in the Spurs...
However, perhaps more value lies in the Under, as this game should fall well short of the 195 points which are predicted in Vegas... the Under is already 5-0 in the last five games between these two in Sacramento, and with San Antonio having scored just 84.8 ppg in their last five trips to Sacramento, and the highest total between these teams coming in at 188 points, the odds of this number jumping over the posted total is minimal at best...
After scoring 110 points or more, the Kings have followed up that performance with four consecutive straight up losses, and have scored just 92.2 ppg in their nine follow-up contests this season, including two straight contests of 89 points or less... meanwhile, the Spurs have followed up two consecutive games of scoring 100+ points by scoring less than 90 in four of their last five follow-up contests, and an average of just 84.4 ppg in those contests... add those averages up, and we have a total that will be closer to 175 points than 195 points... Sacramento wins this game, but fails to cover, as both teams find themselves in a low-scoring battle that falls far under the total...
FINAL PREDICTION: SACRAMENTO 90, SAN ANTONIO 87
Indiana @ Atlanta 6:05 PM EST
Atlanta +3.5 over Indiana (3.5 Units)
The idea of taking the Hawks never appeals to us too much, but with them at home and scoring at an immense clip makes us believe that Indiana shouldn't be favored in this contest... as surprising as it may seem, the Hawks are finally starting to play up to their potential on the offensive side of the ball after struggling for the majority of the season... in fact, over their last twelve games, Glenn Robinson and company have been scoring at a 100.1 ppg clip, scoring at least 97 points in eleven of those contests, while holding five of their last six opponents to less than 100 points...
The Hawks may have lost each of their last four games straight up, but each of those last three losses have come by three points or less... additionally, while Atlanta is just 5-4 straight up in their last nine home games, three of those four losses have come by three points or less as well... in other words, against today's 3.5 point spread, the Hawks would be a very impressive 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games... heading back to last season, Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 ATS after a straight up loss where they covered the spread, winning by an average of 9.4 points against the spread in those contests, including double-digit straight up wins against both the Kings and the Lakers this season... the last cover in this situation came just the other night, when the Hawks lost by just one against this very same Indiana squad...
The Pacers have been quite generous on defense as of late, allowing at least 95 points in eight of their last nine games, and have been a horrible favorite over losing Eastern Conference teams, going just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, with both covering efforts coming against the Miami Heat... and in their last ten games as a road fav, the Pacers are just 3-7 ATS... both these situations indicate an Indiana team that is not taking their opposition as seriously as they should be... and despite Atlanta's overall 19-33 record, the Hawks are still 15-12 at home, a record that is a full game better than Indiana's 13-12 road mark... taking the Hawks lightly in this one will result in no less than a straight up loss...
Losing in Atlanta is nothing new for the Pacers, as the Hawks have defeated Indiana in three of their last four contests in Atlanta, with their sole loss coming by just (you guessed it) three points... in those four contests, the underdog is 3-0-1 ATS... with the Hawks 3-0 ATS as a home dog, and Indiana just 4-10 ATS overall in their last fourteen games, we have a very difficult time seeing the Pacers winning by more than three points, even if they do somehow pull out the win in this evening's contest... take the Hawks and the points, as this one should be decided by three points or less either way...
FINAL PREDICTION: ATLANTA 98, INDIANA 96
2/16 COMPLIMENTARY AFTERNOON NBA (no analysis)
Orlando @ Toronto 1:35 PM EST
Toronto -3.5 over Orlando (1.5 Units)
Golden State @ Minnesota 3:35 PM EST
Minnesota -7 over Golden State (1 Unit)