New England opened as fat 7-point favorites to win the Super Bowl for the third time in the four years, the same opening number the Pats laid against the surprising Carolina Panthers in last year's big game.
The similarities between this game and last year's 32-29 win may end there, as the Patriots (16-2 straight up, 13-2-2 against the spread) will face a much tougher challenge in the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3 SU, 11-7 ATS). Unlike Carolina, Philly has a bona fide superstar in the most important position: quarterback.
Donovan McNabb has guided his team to the big show despite losing his No. 1 receiver Terrell Owens, who injured his lower right leg in Week 15. But he boasts a strong supporting cast that includes Greg Lewis, Freddie Mitchell and L.J. Smith and may get T.O. back for the Feb. 6 clash in Jacksonville.
But of course, that's offense, and offenses don't win championships; defenses do. Although the Patriots certainly have this aspect of their game covered, the Eagles are not so bad on 'D' either. In two playoff games against two strong offensive teams - Minnesota and Atlanta - the Philly defense has allowed an average of just 12 points, three points less than the Patriots in their two playoff games. And the Eagles were second-best in points allowed and second best in sacks during the season, so with a strong, balanced opponent, why are the Pats favored by so much?
You can scratch home-field advantage and weather from the mix. Neither is a factor. Look instead at running back Corey Dillon and coach Bill Belichick. Dillon gives the Patriots a dimension to their offense which they didn't have last year, yet still won the Super Bowl. The eight-year veteran is hungry for a title after spending his career with the lowly Bengals and Tom Brady is unbeaten in the playoffs. That said, the best weapons in the world are nothing without a master field general leading the attack. This is where coach Belichick, without a doubt one of the most brilliant coaches ever to walk the sidelines, comes into play.
The way he motivates and prepares his teams combined with his play calling, Belichick has the effect of making his counterparts look like mere amateurs. Will Eagles coach Andy Reid prove to be a pro in countering Belichick? Reid has plenty of playoff experience and is a calm and confident leader who sticks to his game plan and rarely loses his cool. Whether or not the Eagles cover the spread may very well depend on whether Reid can outmaneuver the master, which is doubtful at best. The total in this game has been set at 47 1/2.
Some trends to consider:
New England are 1-5-0 ATS in their last 6 games against Philadelphia
New England are 1-4-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points
New England are 5-2-0 SU in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points
New England are 9-2-0 ATS in their last 11 games
Philadelphia are 5-0-0 SU in their last 5 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
Philadelphia are 5-0-0 SU in their last 5 games after being 3.5 to 7 point favorites
Philadelphia are 10-1-0 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
Philadelphia are 5-1-0 ATS in their last 6 games against New England