2007 BASEBALL "FUTURES" TO WATCH
by Bruce Marshall
Associate Editor
Let’s have a little fun!
Before our 50th publishing season concludes in a few weeks, we have time for one more installment of what has become one of our favorite editorial assignments of each season. Indeed, we at TGS look forward with great anticipation each spring to producing our annual Major League baseball “futures” predictions. It wasn’t always that way for us, however, as for a long time we resisted getting involved in season-long over/under “wins” wagers, especially in baseball, because we believed those bets were too good a deal for the house, which, unlike most wagers, would be holding a customer’s money for several months. But enough readers reminded us that “futures” could add some extra excitement to drawn-out regular-season schedules (such as MLB’s), and that if approached thoughtfully and carefully could actually prove worthwhile investments.
We took heed and are glad we did, because these stories (whether in the NFL, NBA, or baseball) are now among the most popular features with our audience. And we’ve found these can provide decent investments, too, as we’ve yet to post a sub-.500 mark in any “futures” prediction stories and are batting a cool .633 (31 of 49) with our baseball projections the past four years.
Enough of the chit chat, so let’s get down to business. Following are our preferred “futures” predictions for the 2007 MLB season; 2007 season win numbers in parenthesis () courtesy Bodog.
NL EAST: Normally, we wouldn’t be excited about recommending an “under” for the lowest win total in the bigs. But we’re going to make an exception with this year’s Washington Nationals (66). The Lerners don’t seem too interested in spending money on free agents until the new ballpark by the Anacostia River opens next season, and this year’s Nats will feel the pinch. We’re hard-pressed to recall any team with a less impressive rotation (injury-prone John Patterson looks to be the “ace” for now). Meanwhile, 1B Nick Johnson might not be available until the All-Star break (if that soon) while recovering from a broken leg, unpredictable ex-Tiger Dmitri Young is now counted upon to carry some of the offensive burden, and SS Christian Guzman is returning from major shoulder surgery. Perhaps fleet Nook Logan will save some runs in CF, but we don’t know how often he can get on base, and if his spring groin injury lingers, there's a possibility Young might have to play in the outfield (whoa!). New manager Manny Acta might be wondering what he got himself into even before Memorial Day, as this team looks the best bet in the bigs to lose 100 games. Look “under” for the Nats as they bid RFK Stadium adieu.
The precocious Florida Marlins (76½) aren’t going to sneak up on anybody this season after winning a surprising 78 games in ‘06. They’re also not likely to dig themselves the same sort of hole in April as they did before hitting stride a year ago, either. Grapefruit League sources don’t think new manager Fredi Gonzalez will be any dropoff from predecessor Joe Girardi, whom some believed was guilty at times of mismanaging last year’s roster. Keep in mind, however, that Florida fared better than expected last year despite lefty ace Dontrelle Willis’ (left) dropoff from ‘05, and if the rest of the young rotation is as good as it looked for much of ‘06, the staff could be nasty. Meanwhile, an array of young offensive weapons promise their own continuing excitement, although there a few positions that demand attention (upgrades in CF and something resembling an established closer are still on GM Larry Beinfest’s wish list). We suspect fans might begin returning to Dolphin Stadium sometime this summer, because Florida has a chance to get above .500, into the playoff hunt, and “over” that modest win total.
We’re not ruling out the possibility the New York Mets (89½) could make it back to the postseason, and perhaps do some damage once there. After all, this is still one of the most dangerous lineups in the NL, especially if FA vet Moises Alou still has some gas left in his tank and provides proper protection in the lineup for slugging 3B David Wright, as well as adding an important right-handed bat to cope with the slew of lefties the Mets had trouble dealing with late in ‘06. But don’t expect New York to run away with the East again, especially since Pedro Martinez might miss the season recuperating from rotator cuff surgery. That has forced Willie Randolph to rely upon 40-year-olds Tom Glavine and El Duque Hernandez at the top of the rotation, and hoping (praying?) that the likes of projected starters Oliver Perez and Chan Ho Park rediscover some of their lost magic. With that discomforting pitching scenario and the prospects of dealing with a more competitive division, we’re saying “under” at Shea.
Others...Howard Eskin and the WIP sports talk crowd in Philly are finally talking about the Philadelphia Phillies (88½) and what might be the league’s best everyday lineup, led by Ryan Howard’s (right) 58 homers in ‘06. But just in case the rotation doesn’t live up to expectations, and closer Tom Gordon’s shoulder woes linger, we’re taking a pass on the Phils at that price...The Atlanta Braves (83) are no longer burdened by expectations after missing the playoffs for the first time since 1990. They might bounce back into contention, but at this stage we’re not sure, especially since skipper Bobby Cox can’t rely on robust pitching as he once could.
NL CENTRAL: Didn’t the St. Louis Cardinals (85) win the World Series last October? Yes, they did. They also won only 83 games during the regular season. But the incomparable Albert Pujols is looking forward to an injury-free campaign, and having a healthy 3B Scott Rolen will benefit both offense and defense. And the ‘02 Angels reunion continues with the arrival of FA 2B Adam Kennedy to team up with old double-play partner David Eckstein at SS. A lot will depend upon closer Jason Isringhausen bouncing back from hip surgery, because if he does, the promising Adam Wainwright (a hero last October out of the pen) can move into a rotation that has some issues beyond Chris Carpenter. The fallout from skipper Tony La Russa’s recent DUI could become a distraction, but in a division filled with question marks, the Cards still look like the surest bet. It should be an “over” at the new Busch Stadium.
The last time the Pittsburgh Pirates (72) cleared .500, George H.W. Bush was still in the White House (1992). But there’s finally some hope at beautiful PNC Park, mainly because the Bucs played above .500 for Jim Tracy after the All-Star break (37-35, even outpacing the champion Cardinals the last 2½ months), and because a lively young staff led by the promising Ian Snell, Zach Duke, and Paul Maholm could be poised for a real breakthrough. There’s also some promise that better things are on the horizon offensively with newly-acquired ex-Brave 1B Adam LaRoche likely to provide legitimate protection for Jason Bay (left) in the order, and remember that Freddy Sanchez (now at 2B) is the defending NL batting champ. Sure, the bottom could drop out if the bullpen implodes after the departure of closer Mike Gonzalez in the LaRoche deal (Salomon Torres hasn’t looked too comfy in that role this spring), but there’s still enough evidence to indicate the Buccos have at least turned the corner. And wouldn’t it be great to give Lanny Frattare, Steve Blass and the classy Pirates announcing crew something to get excited about for once? In this division, we think the Bucs can get “over” 72 wins.
Others...The Houston Astros (78½) have added some pop to their lineup with FA OF Carlos Lee, but opponents still might be able to pitch around him and 1B Lance Berkman if young outfielders Luke Scott & Chris Burke can’t pull their weight. And though we like the addition of RHP Jason Jennings (finally liberated from Colorado), it’s less likely than a year ago that Roger Clemens acts as a midseason life preserver...GM Wayne Krivsky is doing his darnedest with the resources at his disposal to keep the Cincinnati Reds (77) competitive. Unfortunately, his myriad moves have proved to be nothing more than band-aids for a jerry-rigged pitching staff (the bullpen in particular). And this remains a very inefficient offense with so many free swingers (led by Dave Kingman-like Adam Dunn) bogging down the attack with their penchant for Ks. Still, if Ken Griffey Jr. can stay healthy now that he’s moved to RF, the Reds will at least have a pulse, and keep Marty Brennaman (now joined by son Thom!) hopping in the broadcast booth...Is it asking too much for the Milwaukee Brewers (81½) to improve 7 games from last season’s disappointment? Maybe not if the Brew Crew can avoid the injuries that slowed it down in ‘06, and there’s even more depth in an underrated staff after the addition of Cardinal playoff star Jeff Suppan. But there were few upgrades made to the lineup, and GM Doug Melvin and skipper Ned Yost are running out of time to prove they can field a legit contender...Such is our respect for new manager Lou Piniella that we’re hesitating to recommend “under” on the again-overpriced Chicago Cubs (84½). But we’re sure tempted to look that way after considering the defensive adventures that await newly-signed OF Alfonso Soriano (right) in Wrigley Field’s odd mixture of wind, shadows, deep corners, and shallow power alleys. And the familiar tune about keeping Ps Mark Prior and Kerry Wood (now in the pen) healthy is sounding like an old broken record.
Tomorrow...NL West & AL East!
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