2007 Kentucky Derby Analysis
by T.O. Whenham - 04/26/2007
Analysis of the Kentucky Derby is hard any year, but 2007 Kentucky Derby analysis is particularly challenging. Rarely have we seen a field with so many questions and so few horses of which we have a clear picture of their capabilities or what we can expect. At this point it's almost impossible to know if the field seems so congested because it is so full of good horses, or if the problem is that this is a substandard class. If it's the former then the challenge becomes picking the best of the best. If it's a second-rate class, however, then the trick is to figure out if there is a horse among them that has a class advantage that it will be able to exert. A look at the top contenders in the field illustrates the problems in drawing a clear picture:
Curlin - The likely favorite has been ridiculously dominant in three races this year, but those are the only three races he has ever run. He's facing several historical precedents that would make it seem logical to dismiss him. On the other hand, we've seen horses like Bernardini and Discreet Cat recently, which, against well-matched competition, are absolute freaks. Curlin certainly has the look of belonging in that category. In that case, the inexperience may not matter. D. Wayne Lukas, perhaps the most qualified living trainer to have an opinion about the Triple Crown given his success and that of his protégés, has been vocal in his support of the horse despite what could be potential problems on paper.
Street Sense - If Curlin isn't the favorite then this horse likely will be. His biggest challenge is overcoming the Breeders' Cup Juvenile jinx - no horse that has won that race has ever gone on to win the Derby. He's been dominant at times, but he's always had a perfect trip when he's raced at his best. Perfect trips are exceptionally rare during the Derby. Though his performance this year may have raised some concerns, the most compelling reason to look at this horse is that he absolutely crushed fellow Derby hopefuls Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Stormello and Scat Daddy in the Juvenile, and that was over the same Churchill Downs track as the Derby.
Circular Quay - This horse clearly illustrates the problems with 2007 Kentucky Derby analysis. On one hand, you have a horse that looked dominant in winning the Louisiana Derby, and one that is trained by Todd Pletcher, easily the hottest trainer on the planet for the last several years. On the other hand, though, you have a horse that is coming into the Derby off an eight-week rest (no horse since Morvich in 1922 has won in those conditions), with only two races as a three-year-old (Only two horses in the last 60 years have won with so little preparation). This horse also hasn't run at least a mile and an eighth (It's been 58 years since a horse with that limitations has triumphed).
Nobiz Like Shobiz - This horse fits the prototype of how to prepare for the Derby best. He ran three times at two and had a big stakes score in the Remsen. He's had three prep races this year, including the Wood Memorial, long one of the final launching pads for Derby success. Sounds ideal. The only problem is the middle of those three races this year. The first - the Holy Bull - was incredibly powerful, and the Wood was very solid. The Fountain of Youth in between, though, was a disappointing and largely inexplicable third. He had a bit of a rough trip that he didn't react to well. He's almost certain to have another rough trip at Churchill.
Scat Daddy - The horse that beat Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Fountain of Youth also succeeded Barbaro as the Florida Derby champion. He's among the more seasoned horses in the field, having run in four graded stakes races last year and three more as a three-year-old. This Todd Pletcher trainee seems to fit the bill as a horse worth backing, but before last year laying off for five weeks after the Florida Derby was seen as a detriment. No horse since Needles in 1956 had won off the Florida Derby until Barbaro did last year. Was that just a coincidence, or would lightning have to strike twice for Scat Daddy to win here?
Tiago - This horse will get more attention than he probably warrants because he is a half-brother to a previous winner Giacomo, and because he is the Santa Anita Derby winner, and therefore at the head of what shapes up to be a very weak California contingent. It seems like every horse in the field will have to overcome some sort of historical disadvantage to win the Derby, and Tiago is no exception. He has run just four career prep races, and Exterminator back in 1918 was the last Derby winner with that type of experience.
Great Hunter - This horse had an impressive resume as a two-year-old - seven races and he ended up in the money in all of them. He even beat Street Sense before the Juvenile. He went from a surprising high number of races at two to a disappointingly low number at three - just two. That makes him one of several horses that will have to overcome that particular historical disadvantage. He won the Robert B. Lewis nicely, but his final prep was very concerning. He was supposed to go head-to-head with Street Sense in the Blue Grass, but instead he floundered badly and ended up at the back of the pack. His ability to rebound, especially given his limited experience this year, has to come into question.
Any Given Saturday - He's gathering a good deal of momentum in the racing media and will likely be viewed as a good shot at a decent price. He's also had a lot of people that are prominent in the racing game rave about him. The problem is that he hasn't really got it done when it matters. After a win in the fairly meaningless Sam F. Davis, the horse opened eyes with an impressive stretch drive in the Tampa Bay Derby. The problem is that it wasn't quite enough to catch Street Sense - he lost by a nose. He was next pointed at the Wood Memorial because that looked like a soft spot, but he only finished third. Excuses were flying in both cases - he covered more ground than the rest of the field in Tampa Bay, and he bobbled out of the gate in the Wood Memorial. He'll need to run without excuses to win the roses.
www.docsports.com
Kentucky Derby winner could be horse that bucks tradition
Sat, Apr 28, 2007
By Associated Press
Four horses have run just two prep races. Four others are coming in off long layoffs. And some didn't even race as 2-year-olds. Conventional wisdom is out the window at this year's Kentucky Derby, a wide-open affair that could produce a winner whose trainer might just break all the unspoken rules.
Barbaro came into Churchill Downs last year and romped to a 6 1/2-length victory, becoming the first horse since Needles in 1956 to win after more than four weeks off.
''Last year I was the most unorthodox trainer there was and now this year all these people look like geniuses because they're taking five, six and seven weeks off between the races,'' Michael Matz said. ''When I did it, it was voodoo.''
Louisiana Derby winner Circular Quay is set to run in next Saturday's Kentucky Derby off an eight-week break.
''I don't believe that will be any excuse,'' trainer Todd Pletcher said.
Concerned about Circular Quay's habit of dropping far back, Pletcher believed another hard race too close to the Derby would cause the colt to get lazy in the early going of the 1 1/4-mile race.
''By being a fresher horse, he'll lay a little closer to the pace,'' he said.
Circular Quay could be joined by such well-rested rivals as Hard Spun (six weeks), Florida Derby winner Scat Daddy (five weeks), Matz's horse, Chelokee (five weeks) and three-week vacationers Curlin and Zanjero.
Pletcher, who also trains Scat Daddy, says many of his horses run better with more time between races. The nation's leading trainer plans to send out a record-tying five Derby starters in pursuit of his first victory.
''I just don't see why that wouldn't apply to the Kentucky Derby,'' Pletcher said. ''I know you can take all the historical facts and stats and all that, but if I do that, I'm kind of ignoring the most important data and that's on the ones I train.''
Curlin is 3-for-3 this year, but was unraced as a 2-year-old, which defies long-held beliefs that young horses need all the experience they can get before trying the Derby. His wins include the Arkansas Derby for trainer Steve Asmussen.
''They're yelling Steve Asmussen's horse doesn't have enough experience, but he looks like a pretty nice horse to me,'' Matz said.
Pletcher agreed after seeing Curlin in training on the synthetic track at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky.
''He's won by lengthy margins and he's just a very impressive looking horse,'' Pletcher said. ''He's sort of bucking some historical trends, but he's the one horse out there that sort of separated himself from the ones that he's run against.''
John Shirreffs, who trained 2005 Derby winner Giacomo, brings that horse's half brother, Tiago, into this year's race. Tiago ran once as a 2-year-old, which Shirreffs believes was beneficial.
''The more experience they can get at running and being in different situations, the more it's going to help them later on,'' he said. ''Going into the Derby in a 20-horse field, there's a lot of things that happen and you want to have the horse able to handle a lot of situations.''
Circular Quay and Scat Daddy also both ran as 2-year-olds, giving them what Pletcher calls ''a tremendous amount of seasoning.''
''They've kind of been in a lot of different situations that would maybe prepare a horse mentally for whatever you can throw at them on Derby day,'' he said. ''Traffic and getting bumped around a little bit and dirt in your face and all those things. That's an X factor when you go into the Derby with maybe a horse that hasn't had a lot of that.''
Circular Quay, Tampa Bay Derby winner Street Sense, Great Hunter and Blue Grass winner Dominican are set to run in the Derby off just two prep races. Tradition calls for at least three.
The last Derby winner with two preps as a 3-year-old was Sunny's Halo in 1983; before that it was Jet Pilot in 1947.
For the first time, some of this year's potential Derby trainers are working their horses on synthetic surfaces, even though the Run for the Roses is on traditional dirt.
Four of Pletcher's five candidates, along with Doug O'Neill's trio of Great Hunter, Liquidity and Cobalt Blue, will complete their pre-race workouts on Keeneland's artificial surface made of wax-coated sand, synthetic fibers and recycled rubber.
Pletcher won't head to Louisville until Tuesday, although he sent Sam P. ahead so the excitable colt could get used to the atmosphere.
''We're still trying to adjust and learn more about it,'' Pletcher said of the new surface.
If it's rainy, and it often is during Derby week, horses don't need to wait for synthetic surfaces to dry out as they do with dirt, allowing for extra training time.
Curlin and stablemate Zanjero turned in impressive workouts at Keeneland, and critics will be comparing those with their pre-Derby trips over Churchill's dirt.
Carl Nafzger, who won the 1990 Derby with Unbridled and trains Street Sense at Churchill, believes it's too early to know how the transition from synthetic to dirt will affect the Derby.
''I suppose if some horse is trained on it wins (the Derby), they'll all say, 'Oh, big deal,''' he said. ''But if I win it, they'll say, 'Well, see, they shouldn't have trained on Polytrack, they should have been at Churchill.'''