2009 Preseason Trends
By Mike Wynn Sports
With the NFL preseason upon us I thought it might be helpful to list some trends for each team heading into the 2009 preseason. Trends can be a helpful tool in handicapping preseason games, but make sure you do your homework in preseason as QB rotations and the playing time for starters is huge in breaking down games. We can’t predict the latter here but we can list the former and here are a few trends to be aware of.
Arizona Cardinals- Under Whisenhunt the Cardinals are 0-4 in their first and last preseason games and Arizona is 9-0 ATS off a straight up loss. Arizona has gone over the total in 6 of 8 games under Whisenhunt.
Atlanta Falcons- Falcons are 5-0 ATS in week 3 of the preseason the last 5 years. Falcons 9-1 ATS as favorites off double digit loss. Atlanta 3-1 under last year under new coach Mike Smith.
Baltimore Ravens- Ravens a solid under play in preseason going under the total in 11 of their last 15. Ravens 6-1 ATS underdogs off a double digit ATS loss.
Buffalo Bills- Bills are currently on a 5-0 ATS run in their first preseason game of the season and they play the underdog role well covering the last 7 getting points.
Carolina Panthers- Carolina 5-1 ATS in the home underdog role and the Panthers are 0-3 in their final preseason the last 3 years.
Chicago Bears- Bears 0-5 home favorites and Lovie Smith 0-7 ATS versus NFC. Chicago is an under play in the final week of preseason going under in 6 straight finales and the Bears 2-12 under the last 14 at home.
Cincinnati Bengals- Bengals start and finish strong in the preseason with a perfect 6-0 ATS mark the last 3 seasons in their openers and finales. Cincinnati under Lewis is 0-9 with preseason revenge.
Cleveland Browns- Browns 5-1 ATS home underdogs and 5-0 underdogs off a straight up underdog win.
Dallas Cowboys- Cowboys are 0-4 on the road under Wade Phillips, but Dallas is 4-0 straight up and ATS versus Oakland since 2001. Cowboys 9-3 ATS at home the last 12 , but 0-8 ATS at home against an opponent off a double digit straight up win.
Denver Broncos- Denver 13-2-1 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite and the Broncos are 8-1 ATS the last 9 years in their final preseason game, all be it under the departed Mike Shanahan.
Detroit Lions- Detroit 0-7 ATS on the road after back to back straight up losses, but 6-0 ATS at home off a straight up double digit win.
Green Bay- Packers 9-3 over under McCarthy including 5 straight. Green Bay 1-11 ATS versus an opponent off a back to back straight up losses, and 1-6 ATS off back to back straight up losses.
Houston Texans- Texans a solid 6-1 ATS in the underdog role the last 7, and week 3 has seen Houston cover all 3 games under head coach Kubiak. The Texans are also 9-3 over under Kubiak in preseason.
Indianapolis Colts- Under former coach Tony Dungy the Colts were 1-6 ATS in finales and we’ll have to see if that continues under the regime. Indianapolis is 10-2 ATS as favorites off a double digit straight up loss.
Jacksonville Jaguars- Jaguars 4-0 ATS home underdogs and Jacksonville is 6-0 ATS on the road under Del Rio off a straight up win. Jaguars also on an 11-5 over run in the preseason.
Kansas City Chiefs- Chiefs are 1-9 ATS on the road the last 10. Kansas City also 1-7 ATS their last 8 overall and 2-10 ATS on the road off a straight up loss as a favorite.
Miami Dolphins- Miami won 3 of 4 games last year under new management. Dolphins are 1-4 ATS on the road against an opponent off straight up favorite loss.
Minnesota Vikings- Minnesota 0-4 ATS home favorites and 0-6 ATS underdogs versus and opponent off a double digit straight up loss. Vikings are 5-1 ATS at home off back to back straight up wins.
New England- New England 5-2 ATS in week 3 preseason games the last 7 seasons. Patriots are 9-0 at home versus an opponent off back to back straight up losses.
New Orleans- Siants just 1-5 ATS at home under head coach Sean Payton, but 5-1 ATS on the road. New Orleans 4-0 on the road off a double digit straight up win.
NY Giants- Giants 6-2 ATS at home off back to back straight up wins. Better trends for the Giants are with the totals where they’re 8-4 under the last 12 including 4 straight under in the annual Giants/Jets game.
NY Jets- Jets get a defensive minded head coach in Rex Ryan so expect and emphasis on the defense. Jets a tremendous 13-2 ATS underdog the last 15, and 5-1 ATS on the road off a double digit straight up loss.
Oakland Raiders- Raiders a solid 5-1 ATS at home over the past 3 seasons, but on a 1-6 ATS run as a home underdog. Raiders a solid under team as they’ve stayed under in 13 of their last 17 the past 4 years.
Philadelphia Eagles- Eagles 0-5 ATS in openers the last 5 seasons, and watch the finale against the Jets where Philadelphia has lost 10 of the last 11 straight up. Eagles also 1-8 ATS off back to back straight up ATS wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers- Steelers a solid under play in preseason under with an 11-2 under record the last 3 years. Steelers not a good road favorite at 1-6 ATS the last 7, but they are 5-0 ATS underdogs versus opponents off back to back straight up losses.
St Louis Rams- Steve Spagnuolo another defensive coordinator taking over a head coaching job so expect unders in the preseason. Rams are 7-2 favorites against opponents off back to back straight up losses.
San Diego Chargers- Norv Turner now 0-4 in week 3 preseason games going back to his days at Oakland. San Diego is 5-1 ATS as a favorite off of a straight up loss as a favorite.
San Francisco 49ers- Mike Singletary should bring some intensity to the preseason for the 49ers. San Francisco 5-1 ATS off back to back straight up and ATS losses, but 0-4 ATS dogs off back to back straight up losses.
Seattle Seahawks- Seattle a solid 12-2 ATS underdog off a straight up loss and 8-1 ATS off a double digit straight up loss against an opponent with a winning percentage over 500. Seattle 9-2 over the total the last 11 in preseason.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Tampa Bay starts fast with a 7-0 ATS record in their first preseason game. Tampa Bay 5-1 ATS overall the last 6 and 6-1 ATS at home versus an opponent off a double digit straight up win.
Tennessee Titans- Tennessee a dynamite 11-1 road underdog versus an opponent off a straight up ATS win. Tennessee 0-4 ATS in the underdog role at home and 1-7 ATS at home off a straight up loss as a favorite. Titans head coach Jeff Fisher also likes to play his starters more than most in the preseason finale.
Washington Redskins- Redskins just 5-11 ATS in preseason games over the last 4 years including 4 straight ATS losses in their finale. Washington a lousy 2-15 ATS underdog when getting more than 3 points.