I am counting on 3 BAD teams to cover this week...
NAVY
(all NAVY/WF trends are ATS since 1992.)
Navy is 43-19 in road games.
Navy is 34-15 after playing a home game.
Navy is 22-7 in road games after 1 or more conference losses.
Navy is 24-9 in road games in the second half of the season.
Road Underdogs of 21.5 to 28 points after scoring 6 points or less in their previous game are 22-7.
Wake Forest is 5-14 in home hames after playing a home game.
TEMPLE
Temple outrushed Rutgers 271 to minus 13 last week and barely won the game. That being said, home underdogs of 7.5 to 14 points after allowing less than 40 yards rushing in their last game are 16-4 ATS in the past 10 years...an 80% trend.
It should have been a blowout last week and the final score was not indicative of how the game was played. Temple dominated. BC is only averaging 12.5 points per game on the road this year. Against common opponents, Temple has scored more and allowed less points than BC. Finally BC is 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
REVENGE. As a 14 point dog last year North Texas beat MTSU late in the season. Much more was expected from MTSU this year and this is their chance to redeem themselves just a bit.
MTSU averages 35 points per game at home while North Texas only averages 11 points on the road. Road favorites of 7 or less with an offense averaging 285 yards or less are a horrible 9-22 ATS since 1992.
I think Middle Tennessee State is the better team at home getting points. I'll take them!
Good Luck!
Nice post Chris. I've been on MTSU right along but I like your analysis of The Temple BC game. The Owls are better than their record would indicate. I'm takin' em.