Note: None of these games are as strong as Boise last night. All records listed are ATS.
A personal play...UCONN
UConn is 14-4 as an underdog the past 3 years
UConn is 11-3 after gain 100 rushing yards or less in their previous game.
UConn is 6-1 after playing a game where 60 or more points were scored the pas 3 years.
UConn is 5-1 in non-conference games this year while Temple is 8-24 in non-conference games in the past 10 years.
Temple is 1-5 as a road favorite in the past 10 years.
Temple is 1-6 in road games after playing 5 straight games as an underdog in the past 10 years.
Bottom line...Temple is a bad team out of conference and UConn is a good underdog. I'll take my chances here.
A personal play...Arkansas State
Home Underdogs of 7.5-14 points after a loss by 35 or more are 29-13.
Road Favorites of 7.4-14 points off a bye week are 20-48.
Road Favorites who average 4.2 yards or less per play on the season are 12-29.
Bottom Line...North Texas averages 6 points on the road and 11 points in all games this season yet they are favored here by 8 or 9. I'll take 8 points when the opposition averages 6. Also, Arkansas State has played well after playing a non-conference game lately.
A personal play...Bowling Green
Home favorites of 14.5-21 points after 2 consecutive games where 70+ points were scored are hitting 81%.
Bowling Green is 21-9 after the first month of the season in the past 10 years.
Bowling Green is 13-3 in home games vs. conference foes in the past 10 years.
Bowling Green is 16-4 in home games in the past 10 years...8-2 in October games.
Bowling Green is 6-1 in home games after one or more SU wins the past 3 years, outscoring their opponent by 20 points.
Bottom Line...Bowling Green has been like an ATM machine in its last 21 home games...hitting 85% ATS. I'm riding them until the linesmakers take notice.
Good luck.
Like Temple, don't like the line. It has moved a lot for a [censored]-ball game. That scares me. I will be watching the score though. Good luck today!
MC