LATE AFTERNOON WEEK 10 PLAYS:
Seattle @ Arizona 4:05 PM EST
Arizona/Seattle Under 37 (4 Units)
Neither team should be able to do much offensively in this game dominated by injuries... not only has Seattle lost Trent Dilfer for the year, leaving the team in the hands of the incompetent Matt Hasselback, but they are still without top receiver Darrell Jackson... the end result of all of this is that teams have keyed in on Shaun Alexander, and the team has been completely stifled on the offensive side of the ball, scoring just 20 points the last two weeks and just a field goal last week against Washington...
The Arizona Cardinals have enough problems of their own, as they struggle just to get anyone healthy out on the field as targets for Jake Plummer... David Boston is out this week, and possibly for the season, while MarTay Jenkins is also sidelined with injury... the remaining combination of Frank Sanders and Bryan Gilmore will likely do little to install fear in a Seattle defense that, while wounded, will now be able to focus their energies on shutting down the running game... Thomas Jones had his best day as a pro against the Seahawks earlier this season, and it's obvious that the Seahawks D will be keying on stopping him from repeating his performance... with Arizona starting center Mike Gruttadauria also doubtful for this contest, we expect a domino effect that will limit Jones' effectiveness, even against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL...
If the Cards were healthy at all in the receiving corps, we'd expect them to be able to win this game easily by opening up the field with a few well-timed David Boston bombs... however, his loss completely shrinks down the field and makes the job of the Seattle defense that much easier... it's not as if the Arizona offense was on fire even before this string of catastrophes, as the Cards have yet to score more than 21 points at home all season, and are averaging less than 15 points a game at Sun Devil Stadium this season... in fact, the Cards have broken the 21 point barrier just once since Week 6 of the 2000-01 season... and in their last 15 home games overall, the Under is a spectacular 12-3...
The Seahawks have limited Arizona's ex-NFC East counterparts (Washington, Dallas, NY Giants) to 14 points or less this season while scoring just 39 points combined against those three and Arizona earlier this year... while the division may have changed for the Cards this year, it's obvious thus far that their style hasn't changed significantly... and with both teams undermanned and determined to stop each other's running games, we expect a lot of punting and a game that should easily fall under the total of 37...
FINAL PREDICTION: ARIZONA 14, SEATTLE 10
New England @ Chicago 4:15 PM EST
Chicago +4 over New England (4 Units)
Chicago/New England Under 40.5 (1.5 Units)
It's amazing how quickly everyone is jumping back on the Patriots after last week's dominating performance against the Bills... I guess one win solves all the problems that New England has had the last four weeks of the season, right? The real problem here is that the Bills didn't exploit the achilles heel of the New England defense, and therefore the illusion now exists that the Patriots are back to their Super Bowl selves...
However, New England looks to be ripe for a heavy letdown after their huge victory over Drew Bledsoe and company... and one simple rule in gambling is never to go against a wounded and hungry team with pride... and the Bears certainly fit that bill with six straight losses after a playoff berth last year... Injuries have torn apart this proud franchise, but for the first time in a long while, the Bears played a solid game last week, and for the first time all season, they will be starting the same 11 people on defense for two consecutive games...
Usually when a team is struggling, they go back to basics, and with the Bears that means defense and pounding the running game... and while Anthony Thomas has had a bad year thus far, the Patriots are the team against which he can turn things around in a jiffy... in New England's five previous games to last week, the common denominator was that they were facing a feature back that could carry the ball 20+ times and tear apart the Patriot defense... and Priest Holmes, LaDanian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams, Ahman Green and Clinton Portis all did just that... the end result of those games is that the Patriots defense allowed 21+ points a game and went 0-5 ATS because of their lack of run support... in New England's three covering efforts, they faced a broken down Jerome Bettis, a Jets offense without Curtis Martin, and a Bills offense whose "featured" back rarely gets enough carries to make a dent in the defense... needless to say, we believe the Pats will get a VERY steady diet of the A-train this week, as he looks like the rookie who took the world by storm last season...
It would be very easy for New England to overlook this Chicago team, especially with their blowout victory last week... and there are several warning signs that this will indeed occur, as the Pats are just 2-13 ATS after scoring between 31 and 40 points, 0-5 ATS against teams in the NFC North, and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite... all of New England's success this year has come when they were not expected to win, as they are 3-1 as a dog, and 0-4 ATS when favored...
In addition to Chicago being a dangerous team looking to restore some pride, there are several trends that favor them heavily in this situation... for not only are the Bears 12-2 ATS as a home dog off back-to-back SU losses, but they have been incredible against the AFC, going 14-3-1 in their last 18 games...
An overconfident Patriots team has meant disaster for New England bettors, as the Pats have gone 1-9-1 ATS after a SU win of 20 points or more, including an 0-5-1 mark in their last six games... four of those games were lost straight up, while the others were just wins by a mere field goal where New England failed to cover the spread... the Bears are finally ready to turn the corner and post a win again, and the Patriots are in a perfect letdown situation to allow that to happen.. therefore take the Bears and the points...
FINAL PREDICTION: CHICAGO 20, NEW ENGLAND 16
Kansas City @ San Francisco 4:15 PM EST
Kansas City +6.5 over San Francisco (3.5 Units)
Kansas City/San Francisco Under 51 (1 Unit)
As is our tendency with the Chiefs this season, we once again like Kansas City as an underdog, as their offense has yet to prove them easily beatable by any opponent... while the Chiefs are just 7-6 straight up in their last 13 games, their offense has been effective enough to ensure only one loss of more than a field goal during that time... and with such close battles game after game, the Chiefs have become one of the best dogs in the NFL, going 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games.... against teams with a winning percentage of .667 or above, Kansas City has covered at a 8-1 clip...
The Chiefs have finally shown some semblance of a defense, allowing just 10 points to Oakland before their bye week... and KC should be able to carry some of that defensive intensity into this contest against the 49ers, as Kansas City's defensive performance after a bye week has been pretty spectacular the last several years... in fact, since 1996, the Chiefs have not allowed a single opponent to score more than 20 points in the week after their bye, with an average points allowed of just 11 points per game... in the last three years, the Chiefs have come out after their bye week and won by a combined 89-22 margin... and while we don't expect that type of result this week, it certainly bodes well for at least a KC cover...
The Chiefs have thrived against both stiff competition, with an 8-1 ATS mark against teams with a winning percentage of 66.7 percent or higher... considering that San Francisco has allowed each of their last four opponents to score at least 20 points, we like KC's chances even more...
We also will place a small wager on the Under in this contest, as not only is the Under 12-5 in San Fran's last thirteen at home, it's also 12-4 when the Niners are home favorites, and 10-1 when SF takes on a non-divisional opponent at home... therefore, take the Chiefs and the Under in a tight game where we see a strong chance of not only a covering effort, but a straight up win, as the 49ers are coming off an emotional overtime win over the Raiders and their ex-teammate Jerry Rice...
FINAL PREDICTION: KANSAS CITY 27, SAN FRANCISCO 17
THANKS FOR THE PLAYS IT WAS A GRETA CARD.