YESTERDAY'S RECAP:
Well, we nailed the Under, but the Angels failed to come through against the Rangers in the Sunday Night MLB opener... the end result was a 1-1 record, but a loss of -4.5 Units to put us in an early hole this season... however, with a full slate of games on opening day, we look to turn that around real quick... please enjoy our complementary plays on opening day!
3/31 MLB:
NY Yankees @ Toronto 7:05 PM EST
Toronto +120 over NY Yankees (5 Units)
Toronto/NY Yankees Over 8.5 (2 Units)
For a team that is constantly in the playoffs year in and year out, the Yankees are a pretty horrible play when it comes to betting purposes... and in a year where making the playoffs is no longer a sure thing, we expect New York to be an even worse play, as linesmakers will continue to adjust lines in New York's favor despite many situations where they shouldn't even be favored in the first place... against Roy Halladay in Toronto, tonight is one of those instances, and we plan on taking full advantage...
Halladay has developed into one of the dominant young pitchers in the American League, and that dominance has shown through splits that displayed him as effective both at home (10-6, 2.56 ERA last year) and even more so at night (9-5, 2.36)... the Blue Jays have already won each of Halladay's last three starts against the Yankees, and considering that he has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts against the Bronx Bombers, Halladay's chances look strong yet again this evening...
In what might be a bit of a surprise to many, the Blue Jays have been an offensive juggernaut when it comes to facing the Yanks, scoring at LEAST five runs in each of their last eight games against New York, and pulling the same feat in each of their last eight home games against the Yanks as well, going a very impressive 6-2 in those contests... with Roger Clemens showing the inevitable decline that comes with old age, and with a Toronto offense that is its most potent since 1993, we have very few doubts about the Jays repeating that trend...
Roger Clemens has had a stellar career, but the wheels began to fall off last year, and we expect the erosion to continue into this season as well... Clemens was exceptionally poor on the road, going just 4-5 with a 6.29 ERA last season... and considering that Roger Rabbit has allowed a whopping 13 runs and 18 hits in his last 10 innings at the Skydome, this game has the makings of blowout written all over it... the Over has cashed in seven of the last eight games between these two, and with the Blue Jays good for at least 5-6 runs in this contest, we like a play on the Over here as well... despite the high-scoring prediction, however, the true play here is quite simple, as the Blue Jays welcome the 2003 Yankees to town with a crushing loss...
FINAL PREDICTION: TORONTO 8, NY YANKEES 3
Milwaukee @ St Louis 4:10 PM EST
Milwaukee +230 over St Louis (2.5 Units)
Milwaukee/St Louis Under 8 (4.5 Units)
Sometimes it's worth taking a shot on a huge underdog such as Ben Sheets and the Brewers... honestly speaking, Milwaukee's odds of actually winning this game are probably less than fifty percent, but when you look at the odds being given to the Brew Crew, you would be turning a profit if they happened to win one out of every three games in this situation... and frankly, with Ben Sheets taking to the mound in St. Louis, we definitely think Milwaukee has a terrific shot at beating Matt Morris and the Cards...
Matt Morris is one of the most dominating pitchers in the league, and has certainly has his share of success against Milwaukee, with a whopping 8-2 mark and a 1.96 ERA against the Brewers throughout his career (including a downright incredible 1.18 ERA in his last six starts against Milwaukee)... however, Morris is coming off a very inconsistent preseason, where he was 1-3 with a 5.60 ERA... and Ben Sheets, while medicore at home against the Cardinals, has been downright spectacular when pitching by the Arch...
In two career starts in St. Louis, Sheets has allowed just one run and nine hits over 16 spectacular innings, in a pair of Milwaukee road wins against the Cards... and when a player allows just 11 baserunners over 16 innings against one of the top lineups in the league, we have to take notice, especially when being handed a moneyline such as this... and with Jim Edmonds and JD Drew out of the lineup for this matchup, the Cardinals' lineup is not nearly as strong as we would like them to be if we are to consider them as a -250 favorite...
Ben Sheets has long been annointed as an ace in the making, eerily similar to the proclamations that followed Matt Morris early in his career... Morris was able to eventually get to that level after a few seasons, and judging by Sheets' late-season surge last year (in his last seven starts, he compiled a 2.50 ERA), his ascension to studliness should occur sooner than later during this, his third full season... with that in mind, we are rolling the dice on the Brewers, and also hammering the Under (which is not only 3-0, but 10-2-1 in the last 13 matchups) as this game should be much better than advertised, with the Brewers having a legitimate shot at the upset...
FINAL PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE 2, ST LOUIS 1
Cubs @ NY Mets 1:10 PM EST
Cubs +120 over NY Mets (2.5 Units)
Cubs/NY Mets Under 7.5 (4 Units)
Whenever the Cubs and the Mets met up last season, you could always count on few fireworks offensively, but lots of entertainment, as four of the last five games were decided by just one run... amazingly, in all six games last season, the winning team scored no more than three runs, with the highest scoring battle being three 3-2 Mets' victories over the Cubbies...
Not too shockingly, the Under came through on all six occasions, and with studs Kerry Wood and Tom Glavine facing off in this matchup, we will certainly take our chances with history repeating itself yet again... we're certainly confident in Kerry Wood's chances against the Mets, who are without the services of Mike Piazza for this series due to suspension...
Wood has performed exceptionally well against the Mets throughout his career, allowing just seven runs and 22 hits in 35 innings for a paltry 1.80 ERA, including just two runs over 14.1 innings in New York... Wood also should be back to his dominant self this season, as it normally takes two seasons to recover from injury, and his improvement was pretty notable during the second half of last season, where he closed the season by allowing two runs or less in five of his final six starts...
The Mets have struggled in general against the Cubs the past two seasons on offense, scoring just 28 runs in their last 12 games... meanwhile, the Cubs have been pathetic in their own right, scoring just ten runs in six games last season against New York... with the addition of Tom Glavine to the New York staff, Chicago's task apparently gets even tougher... however, there is a bit of a silver lining, as Glavine has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 26.2 innings against Sammy Sosa and company... so even though Glavine may have finished up the preseason with a four-inning one-hit performance against the Cards, the door is open just a touch to allow the Cubs to slip by with a win in this contest... with the Cubs getting underdog odds, we recommend a solid play on Chicago, with a larger play on the Under as well...
FINAL PREDICTION: CUBS 4, NY METS 1
Minnesota @ Detroit 1:05 PM EST
Minnesota -170 over Detroit (4 Units)
Minnesota/Detroit Under 9 (1 Unit)
While we certainly applaud the moves that rookie manager Alan Trammell is making with the Tigers, sweeping the place clear of overpriced veteran talent in favor of youth, the unfortunate matter of this housecleaning is that the Tigers will struggle heartily throughout the majority of this season... Bobby Higginson, Dmitri Young, and the hobbled Dean Palmer look to be the only veteran players left on a squad that is littered with inexperience... Andres Torres, Eric Munson, and Omar Infante are starting their first season in the majors, and Carlos Pena Ramon Santiago, and Brandon Inge each barely have a year of major league experience on their resume... the end result of this youth movement may prove to be a rejuvenation of the Tigers a few years down the road, but things will certainly not be pretty early on this season...
Mike Maroth may very well pitch a solid game against the Twins today, as Maroth pitched solidly at Comerica Park last season, going 5-4 with a 3.18 ERA at home... and while Minnesota was just 28-27 last season against lefthanders, Maroth is being unfairly placed in the role of opening day starter with a double-play combination behind him that are an average age of 22 years old... and even if Maroth is able to hold down the Twinkies on offense, and the youthful Detroit defense is able to keep away from the big error, Detroit has some seriously pathetic offensive impotency to solve against Minnesota if they are going to have any chance to win this game...
In their last nine games against the Twins, the Tigers have plated just 20 men, a horrendous average of just 2.2 runs per game... and at home against Minnesota, the Tigers have scored just 11 total runs in their last five games... obviously, with new blood on offense, there is a chance that the Tigers may improve upon those numbers... however, the fact remains that Minnesota has now won nine straight games against Detroit, and are a team on a much greater mission than the Tigers this season, who will be happy just to avoid 100 losses and develop their young talent for the future...
Longtime veteran Brad Radke gets the start for the Twins, and in allowing just 16 runs in his last 50.1 innings against the Tigers (for a 2.86 ERA), Radke has allowed Minnesota to capture six of his last seven starts against Detroit... and with the Tigers scoring just 2.6 runs per game in their final five preseason games (an 0-4-1 run that ended their preseason at 9-19-1), we have some difficulty seeing the Detroit bats breaking out against Radke today... And unlike the young Tigers, the Twins have one of the strongest defenses in baseball, with the likes of Torii Hunter, Corey Koskie, and Doug Mientkiewicz keeping the opposition from gaining the extra outs that lead to rallies...
Expect Mike Maroth and the Tigers to keep this one close through the early innings, but for a key error to open the gates for a season-opening Minnesota win... therefore, don't be afraid to lay the number here and take the Twins, as they register their tenth straight win against the Tigers in a relatively low-scoring contest...
FINAL PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 5, DETROIT 3
Cleveland @ Baltimore 3:05 PM EST
Cleveland +120 over Baltimore (1 Units)
Cleveland/Baltimore Under 8.5 (3.5 Units)
Two teams taking different approaches to seasons with no playoff aspirations whatsover take the field this afternoon as the new-look Indians head to Camden Yards to face the same-damn-look Baltimore Orioles, who seem once again content to trot out the same old faces as they trudge to another lower-level finish in the American League... faces like Jeff Conine, Tony Batista, and Marty Cordorva hardly inspire any excitement over the future of this Orioles team... and while the Indians have said goodbye to most of their top players over the past several seasons, at least they are putting some excitement into their losing, by handing three starting positions to exciting rookies Travis Hafner, Brandon Phillips, and Casey Blake... and with solid veterans Ellis Burks, Omar Vizquel, Matt Lawton, and Karim Garcia surrounding them, we expect the Cleveland offense to have a bit more punch than their Baltimore counterparts...
On this day, however, we expect very little offense from these two teams, as both C.C. Sabathia and Rodrigo Lopez look to be in situations that play to their strengths as pitchers... Lopez gets the benefit of pitching at home, and the young Baltimore ace has certainly taken advantage of those opportunities, going 7-3 with a 3.45 ERA at home last season... and with an exceptional 3-0, 1.96 mark during 23 springtime innings in 2003, Lopez looks poised to perform well against a Cleveland team he shut down to the tune of one run (unearned) over 5.2 innings in a game the Orioles eventually lost in Cleveland last season...
While Lopez has the benefit of pitching at home, C.C. Sabathia gets the pleasure of pitching during the daytime, a situation that proved incredibly beneficial last season, as Sabathia compiled an exceptional 6-0 record on a 2.63 ERA last season when the sun was shining... and despite starting off last season with a hell of a sophomore slump, we believe Sabathia may be ready to fulfill his ace potential this season, as he allowed no more than three earned runs in each of his last eight starts to finish the season last year, a nice precursor for things to come... Sabathia also gets the added benefit of pitching against a Baltimore team that was horrendous against lefties last season, hitting just .240 on the year, and .235 at home against lefthanders...
With the Tribe having won nine of their last ten games against the Orioles, including five of six at Camden Yards, it's very difficult for us not to place a small wager upon them as an underdog in this contest... and while preseason games usually don't carry too much weight into the regular season, the Indians must be feeling pretty confident after winning seven of their final eight games to close the exhibition season... therefore, we will place a small wager on Cleveland to open their season with a win over the Orioles... however, no matter who wins this game, we are fairly confident that this contest will continue an Under trend that has cashed in nine of the last twelve games between these two, including four of the last five.... Cleveland pulls out a squeaker in the latter innings and emerges with a close victory...
FINAL PREDICTION: CLEVELAND 3, BALTIMORE 2
Los Angeles @ Arizona 5:05 PM EST
Los Angeles +230 over Arizona (3 Units)
We're getting some serious value here when the Dodgers take to Arizona to face the Big Unit and the Arizona Diamondbacks... while we don't believe for a second that Randy Johnson's age is going to catch up with him this season, the bottom line in this contest is that he is facing a Los Angeles team that not only batters lefthanders, but has had some pretty notable success against him...
While it's a rare occasion to see the Big Unit give up more than two runs in a start, the Dodgers have now scored at LEAST three runs in five of their last six games against the dominating southpaw... and while allowing 11 earned runs in 21 home innings might be acceptable to some pitchers, the resulting 4.71 home ERA for the Big Unit shows us a pitcher who is susceptible to failure... with that in mind, there is no way that the Diamondbacks should be installed as a -250 favorite...
The notion becomes even more absurd when we realize that Hideo Nomo is LA's starting pitcher in this contest... you see, not only has Nomo allowed just three earned runs in his last 22 innings against the D'Backs (for a paltry 1.23 ERA), but he has allowed just one run in his last 14.2 innings in Arizona... then again, success on the road is nothing new for Nomo, as he compiled an exceptional 9-3 mark and a 2.90 ERA away from home in 2002, and the Dodgers won eleven of Nomo's last twelve road starts to end the season... in fact, the Dodgers were undefeated in Nomo's last ten starts of 2002, and considering that LA has won four of their last six games in Arizona, chances are solid that they can continue that streak into the new season...
Once again, Randy Johnson is as good as they get, but this is a situation where an Arizona win looks to be about 50/50... for not only has the Unit given up some runs to the Dodgers in the past, but the heart of the LA lineup (Green/Jordan/LoDuca) is batting a career .299 off Johnson... in other words, the Dodgers should find ways to once again cross the plate a few times against Arizona... and with the rejuvenated Hideo Nomo on the mound for the Dodgers, a few runs should be enough to give LA the underdog win...
FINAL PREDICTION: LOS ANGELES 5, ARIZONA 2
Philadelphia @ Florida 4:05 PM EST
Florida +100 over Philadelphia (3 Units)
While we love the acquisition of Kevin Millwood to help the Phillies launch themselves back into contending status in the NL East, Philly fans are not going to enjoy Millwood's opening performance against the Marlins, if past history is any indication of future performance... you see, while Millwood may have turned the corner last season against the majority of the league, the Fish have been the ones hooking Millwood, as the Marlins have smacked Kevin around for an incredible 19 runs (17 earned) in just 20 innings last season... for you math majors out there, that's a 7.65 ERA and an 0-4 mark...
Amazingly, throughout Millwood's season-ending run of dominance last season, seven of his last nine starts saw him allow two runs or less (and a total of just 10 runs over 44.1 innings), while his two starts against the Marlins resulted in five runs apiece in just 10.1 combined innings... so even when Millwood is on top of his game, the Florida Marlins seem to have the answer to make him look mediocre once again... luckily for Millwood, Cliff Floyd (.316 average in 19 at-bats) and Preston Wilson (.355, 4 HRs/9RBIs in 31 at-bats) have moved onto greener pastures, helping to ensure that things will never be quite as bad for Millwood against the Marlins...
In a sense, it's almost a shame that the meat of Florida's once formidable lineup has been removed, as we were ready to pull the trigger on a massive play on the Marlins... nonetheless, with phenom Josh Beckett on the mound, we still see some value in the Marlins in this contest... the Marlins, after all, have won each of Beckett's four starts against the Phillies, with Beckett allowing just six earned runs in 20.2 innings for an impressive 2.61 ERA... with Beckett's blister problems from last season looking like a blip on the radar screen after his impressive spring (2-0, 2.14 ERA in 21 innings), look for him to continue to silence the Philly bats in their season opener, as Rollins/Abreu/Burrell/Bell/Lieberthal/Polanco are batting a combined .154 (6 for 39) against Beckett during their careers... Philly's only two players with success against Beckett (Scott Rolen and Marlon Anderson, who were a combined 7-18 against Beckett) are long gone from the team, and while there's no telling how Jim Thome will fare when facing Beckett for the first time, it seems readily apparent that there will be few baserunners in front of him when he takes to the plate...
All in all, we see many reasons to go with the Marlins in this opening contest... and while Cliff Floyd and Preston Wilson may no longer be around to terrorize Kevin Millwood, Millwood will still have to face the likes of Luis Castillo (.375 lifetime in 32 at-bats) and Derrek Lee (.308 in 26 at-bats), as well as Ivan Rodriguez... this should be a tight game, with Millwood having more success against the Marlins than last season, but when all is said and done, we like Florida's chances as a home dog enough to install them as a 3-unit play...
FINAL PREDICTION: FLORIDA 4, PHILADELPHIA 2
REMAINING 3/31 MLB (no analysis):
Boston @ Tampa Bay 5:15 PM EST
Boston -1.5 runs (-175) over Tampa Bay (3 Units)
Boston/Tampa Bay Over 7.5 (1 Unit)
White Sox @ Kansas City 3:05 PM EST
White Sox -170 over Kansas City (2 Units)
Montreal @ Atlanta 7:35 PM EST
Atlanta -200 over Montreal (2 Units)
San Francisco @ San Diego 6:05 PM EST
San Francisco -140 over San Diego (1.5 Units)
San Francisco/San Diego Over 8 (1.5 Units)
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 4:10 PM EST
Cincinnati -140 over Pittsburgh (1 Unit)
Thanks for looking and best of luck!