A rookie's guide to betting the Super Bowl
By DAVID PAYNE
Now that everyone has sufficiently handicapped every single Super Bowl proposition bet, it’s time to place your wagers.
What? You mean you don’t have time to look through and analyze the seeming infinite amount of prop bets. What’s wrong with you?
The answer is nothing.
The vast majority of sports bettors, while still wanting to make a profit, are not relying on it for income. And there’s nothing like a full-time job to suck away at your handicapping time.
So what is a recreational bettor supposed to do?
Four tips from two pros
Go with the flow: Covers Expert David Malinsky creates a framework for how he thinks the game will flow.
This is something that can be done easily by a recreational gambler. Simply, ask yourself how you believe the game will be played out.
Will Pittsburgh’s defense dominate? Or will Arizona’s offense keep rolling?
Will Pittsburgh’s offensive strategy include milking the clock to keep Arizona off the field? Will Arizona’s defense continue to create turnovers?
Once you’ve determined how you believe the game will flow, then take a quick glance at the list of prop bets to see how they compare to your perception of how the game will be played.
“If we think that one team’s pass defense will dominate, then we look to play against the opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers, for instance,” said Malinsky. “If we believe one team can get to a big lead, and may begin running the ball much more in the second half with the lead, we can look for their best running back to get a lot of carries, and hence a lot of yards.
“So we take our own game handicap first, and look for props that can fit back towards those projections.”
Stats that matter: A lot has changed since Pittsburgh beat Houston and Arizona knocked off San Francisco in Week 1.
So why worry about stats they accrued way back in September?
“You should ignore regular-season averages,” suggested Covers Expert Teddy Sevransky. “Concentrate only on what has happened lately, in the postseason. Many prop lines are set using regular season averages, but sharp bettors know full well that what happened in September, October and November are completely irrelevant when it comes to a game being played in February.”
Beware the sucker bet: One hundred dollars will win you $650 if the Super Bowl were to go into overtime. It hasn’t happened in 42 years, so you have to figure that it will sooner or later, right?
Wrong. That’s exactly what the sportsbooks want you to think.
Instead of using some of your bankroll on large plus-price bets, consider some of the wagers available that might not produce gaudy profits but are more likely to cash.
“Sharp bettors aren't afraid to lay extra juice when the situation warrants,” added Sevransky.
Betting for Fun: If you’re betting on the Super Bowl for entertainment purposes only, Malinsky suggests creating a series bets that will keep your interest throughout the game.
Bets are available on sides and totals for each quarter and each half.
Over/unders on penalties, sacks, field goals also are possibilities.
Six things to consider
•The line on the Super Bowl is not always dead-on. In fact, 20 of the 42 Super Bowls have been decided by more than eight points (one possession) of the spread.
The Super Bowl line has been off by an average of 11.98 points in the 42 games.
Remember, oddsmakers set the line and total in an effort to get equal action on both sides. It does not necessarily reflect who will win the game and by how many.
•Underdogs have covered in three of the five Super Bowls that had a seven-point spread.
•Super Bowl favorites are 21-18-3 ATS all-time.
•Totals for the last 22 Super Bowls have been off an average of 13.5 points.
•The total has gone over in 14 of the last 22 Super Bowls.
•The favorite and the over has been a winning parlay in 10 of the last 22 Super Bowls.
•The Cardinals were 2-5 as an underdog during the regular season.
Ask the sportsbook manager
Do sportsbooks make more money off bets on the side and total of the Super Bowl or off of the proposition bets?
“The difference between prop bets and the standard side and total bets is the lack of balanced action we take on the props,” said Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED.com. “The big games will always get very good two-way action on the standard lines offered. That's because the point-spread and total lines are by far the most publicized set of odds to refer the game to.
“In contrast, most prop bets usually only get one-way action. One-way action creates greater win/loss swings on the book. So it really depends on how the one-sided action turns out on the prop bets.
“In the past, our prop action has both yielded very profitable and very costly swings. The standard lines for big games like the Super Bowl are usually very even, with solid two-way action that puts us in a no 'real big winning' situation. We look to earn from the vig only.”