1/29 NBA:
LA Lakers @ Phoenix 9:05 PM EST
Phoenix +2.5 over LA Lakers (5 Units)
Phoenix/LA Lakers Over 195 (1 Unit)
Two teams meet tonight - team A is just 5-15 on the road for the season and losing by 5.7 ppg in those contests, while Team B is a whopping 18-3 at home, and outscoring their opposition there by 5.9 ppg... simple logic would dictate that Team B should be favored in this contest by five or six points over Team A... however, when Team A happens to be the Los Angeles Lakers, all logic flies out the window, as it seems everyone just loves to bet the Lakers, who are turning around their disappointing season "any minute now"... and the end result is a game where once again the Lakers are favored on the road in game that they will lose...
Rather than complain, we prefer to take full advantage with a Phoenix Suns team that has been downright unstoppable at home, where the Suns have now run off ELEVEN straight wins against the likes of winning teams such as Dallas, Sacramento, Philadelphia, Utah, Indiana and Orlando... For the year, Phoenix is now a whopping 18-3 SU at home, with two of their three losses coming by two points or less... very easily, the Suns could be looking at a 20-1 home record this season... The fact that LA is favored here is just gravy, as Phoenix is an exceptional 13-3 both straight up and against the spread in their last 16 games as a home dog... in their last nine games in this situation, Phoenix has not only won all nine contests straight up (against a who's who in the NBA of the Lakers and Dallas last season, and Dallas, Portland, New Jersey, San Antonio, Indiana, Sacramento, and the Lakers this season), but they have won each contest by a MINIMUM of 8.5 ppg ATS, and an average of 13.4 points per game against the spread... and considering that the Suns are now 13-2-1 ATS in their last sixteen games as a dog regardless of venue, it seems the Lakers are in some serious trouble in this contest...
The Lakers still haven't shown any inclination of winning against solid teams on the road, as their five victories have come against the likes of Denver, Toronto, Memphis, the Clips (basically a home game), and the Hornets (in Baron Davis' first game back from injury)... And if any other 5-15 road team were facing an 18-3 home team, there is absolutely no doubt that the home team would be favored, and favored by a relatively strong margin... the fact that LA is facing the Suns makes their mission even more improbable...
Phoenix has won their last four home games against the Lakers by a minimum of twelve points per contest and an average of 14.8 points per game... and the majority of these wins have come during the Lakers' threepeat years - since that time, the Lakers have fallen from grace while the Suns look to be much stronger this season than in years past with the addition of gifted rookie Amare Stoudamire to the starting lineup... overall, the home team in this series has won nine straight games SU and each of the last seven games in this series by double-digits... however, we don't even need double-digits in this one, as a Phoenix win by any margin is all that's needed... and with Phoenix shooting for their twelfth straight home win, and the Lakers still showing a level of softness, we're all over the Suns...
FINAL PREDICTION: PHOENIX 106, LA LAKERS 94
San Antonio @ Indiana 7:05 PM EST
San Antonio +4.5 over Indiana (4 Units)
When the Indiana Pacers host the San Antonio Spurs tonight, they will do so with the knowledge that they are fighting several negative variables... first of all, Indiana will likely be without the services of defensive stopper Ron Artest after Monday night's latest blowup, which will likely merit a suspension for tonight's contest... and frankly, Indiana is going to need a superb defensive effort tonight to have a chance of covering this contest against the San Antonio Spurs, considering the Pacers' amazing offensive struggles against Tim Duncan and company over the past several seasons...
In Indiana's last eight games against the Spurs, they have averaged just 79.6 points per game... meanwhile, for the season, the Pacers are giving up 88.5 ppg at home with Artest playing solid defense on most evenings, while the Spurs have now scored 91+ points in each of their last four games, and six of their last seven overall... needless to say, if Indiana is unable to reverse their offensive impotence against the Spurs or San Antonio's recent explosion on offense, they will quickly drop to 1-4 ATS as a home favorite in their last five contests after being nearly unbeatable to start the season...
San Antonio's 106-95 loss at Minnesota just two nights ago will help San Antonio's focus immensely tonight, as San Antonio seems to perform best after a humiliating performance... not only are the Spurs 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS (with the one ATS loss by a half point) after a double-digit loss this season, but they are also an exceptional 9-0 SU/8-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in their last contest.... the fact that San Antonio has already won four of the last five games between these two in Indiana SU also displays a series domination that spurs us on (pun intended) to take San Antonio and the points in tonight's contest...
The Spurs are already 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as a road underdog, and despite a 4-4 straight up mark in their last eight road games, their loss against the Timberwolves marked their sole defeat by more than three points in those contests... with a solid handful of points coming our way, we're all over San Antonio to cover the spread here against the Pacers... however, even more than covering the spread, we believe tonight is the night the Pacers lose their second home game of the season...
FINAL PREDICTION: SAN ANTONIO 91, INDIANA 84
Dallas @ Houston 9:05 PM EST
Houston +4.5 over Dallas (4 Units)
Houston/Dallas Over 191 (2 Units)
The Yao Ming/Shawn Bradley war may not be one of the most anticipated matchups this season, but when the two tallest men in the NBA face one another, it's certainly worth some recognition... however, outside of the battle between the circus freaks, there are much more important events in this contest for us to check out...
The first of these is Dallas' recent road performance, which is nothing short of pathetic as of late... the Mavs have gone just 3-9 ATS in their last twelve road games, a performance that becomes even worse when you realize that they are 0-8 ATS on the road against Western Conference competition, a position they find themselves in tonight when they head to Houston to face the Rockets... we all know the Western Conference is much stronger than the East, but the Mavs may be more aware of that fact after going just 1-9 ATS in their last ten games overall against the West....
The Rockets have won five of their last six home games to push their home mark on the season to a very impressive 17-6 on the season, a mark that even surpasses Dallas' 15-6 road mark, a mark that is much less impressive when you consider the Mavs have lost three of their last five away from home... As a home dog, the Rockets have gone a spectacular 9-3 ATS... and as a small dog (six points or less) in any location, Houston has covered the spread at an amazing 11-1-1 ATS rate over their last thirteen games... against winning teams at home, the Rockets have compiled an exceptional 9-4 ATS mark in their last thirteen contests, a trend that should serve them quite well against the high-flying Mavericks...
Houston has already excelled on the offensive end against the Mavs, scoring 97 points or more in each of their last four home games against Dallas, and averaging a whopping 109.3 ppg in those contests... unfortunately for the Rockets, their downfall in two of those games was a porous defense - however, with Yao Ming in the middle, and James Posey supplying solid D as well, the Rockets are allowing just 88.8 ppg at home this season, a vast improvement over past seasons... this improved defensive effort should be enough to ensure that the Mavs don't outscore the Rockets on this night... take the Rockets, as they win yet again at home, and continue their spectacular mark as an underdog while the Mavs continue to suffer against intra-conference competition...
FINAL PREDICTION: HOUSTON 104, DALLAS 97
Chicago @ LA Clippers 10:35 PM EST
Chicago +6 over LA Clippers (4 Units)
The words Clippers and favorite should never be used in the same sentence... yes, LA's other team has been playing a bit better as of late, covering eight of their last ten games overall, but almost every one of those covering efforts has come as an underdog... when it comes to actually WINNING games, the Clippers have only put together four victorious efforts in their last sixteen games... the end result of this performance is a team that can cover the spread solidly as an underdog, but is absolutely pathetic when installed as a favorite, no matter who the competition...
In losing 104-100 against the Cleveland Cavaliers as a 3.5-point favorite, the Clippers have continued a streak where they have gone just 4-16-1 ATS when favored over the opposition, with SU losses to the likes of Cleveland and Denver in the mix... the Bulls may not be anyone's example of a great road team - after all, they are just 2-20 on the season away from the Windy City - however, the Bulls have shown some serious signs of improvement overall, with six straight covering efforts, including four straight covers on the road, where their last three games have seen them lose by one, win by thirteen, and lose by just three... and with the Chicago offense scoring 100+ points in four of their last five games, and averaging 102.2 ppg in that timeframe, the fact that they are getting a half dozen points against the Clips looks like a bit of a gift here... after all, the only thing keeping the Bulls from an undefeated mark in their last five games has been a combined four points...
The Clippers know all about close calls, as each of their last six games have been decided by seven points or less... and at home, the Clips have had to fight and claw to win any games, as their last three wins (against seven losses) have come by a combined 16 points... the fact that Michael Olowokandi and Lamar Odom are both questionable for this game certainly doesn't help our confidence in this team, as we'd be concerned about their ability to cover with their entire squad healthy, let alone with two of their key personnel in doubt... LA has allowed 104+ points to each of their last two opponents, and at least 94 points to each of their last five opponents at home... and the Bulls are just playing too solidly right now to provide that type of breathing room... the Clippers have won four straight games against the Bulls, but the last two contests have each been decided by four points, and this is a rapidly improving Bulls team that seems to have finally learned how to compete on the road again... if the Clippers are able to win this game, expect a margin of no more than four points...
FINAL PREDICTION: LA CLIPPERS 98, CHICAGO 96
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Washington @ New Jersey 7:35 PM EST
New Jersey -7.5 over Washington (4 Units)
New Jersey/Washington Under 186 (2.5 Units)
Portland @ Utah 9:05 PM EST
Portland +5 over Utah (4 Units)
New York @ Miami 7:35 PM EST
Miami/New York Over 179 (2.5 Units)
Atlanta @ Philadelphia 7:05 PM EST
Philadelphia/Atlanta Over 192.5 (1 Unit)
Thanks for looking and good luck tonight!!