Arena Football betting news and notes
TED SEVRANSKY
Grand Rapids is most assuredly the biggest story in the AFL over the past two weeks. The Rampage have been AFL bottom feeders for years, since winning the Arena Bowl back in 2001. Entering the 2008 campaign, the Rampage had gone a truly woeful 14-50 over the previous four seasons, showing little promise heading into the new year. And, after losing to San Jose and Chicago by a combined 37 points in their first two ballgames, few expected this team to suddenly break out.
First-year head coach Steven Thonn benched starter Adrian McPherson following the second loss, and replaced him with James MacPherson, a second-year player from Wake Forest who threw only four pass attempts as a rookie. The last names might be similar, but the results haven't. MacPherson burst onto the scene by leading the Rampage to 92 points at Kansas City last week, the most points scored by a road team in a regulation game in AFL history. He followed that up by leading the Rampage to 84 points this past weekend at home against the L.A. Avengers. Grand Rapids' 176 points scored in a two-game span is an all time AFL record.
The AFL is certainly an offense first league, with the best quarterbacks and premier receivers garnering all the hype. A good defensive effort equates to three or four defensive stops per game, holding an opponent under 50 points. But there is one defense in particular that has stood out among the rest in recent weeks. The Chicago Rush have held their last three opponents to exactly 35 points apiece. They’ve held their opponent out of the end zone on 17 of 31 meaningful drives in those three games. This past weekend, Chicago’s defense absolutely dominated Arizona, forcing Rattlers quarterback Jeff Smoker into three forced fumbles and three interceptions, while sacking Smoker four times. Smoker’s 3.9 yards per pass attempt was the worst statistical showing of any quarterback in the league this year. The previous week, the Rush held Colorado scoreless for the final 27 minutes of the game. With Joe Peters, John Moyer and James Baron putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks while Dennison Robinson, Jeremy Unertl and DeJuan Alfonzo are making big plays in the secondary, this defense is good enough to eat struggling quarterbacks and weak offensive lines for breakfast.
Speaking of defense, the Orlando Predators were truly awful defensively for the first three games of the season, allowing 25 touchdowns on 28 meaningful drives against them. Through those first three weeks, Orlando’s defense didn’t record a sack or an interception – nary even a pass breakup. But head coach Jay Gruden made a handful of personnel changes, even leaving star defensive end BJ Cohen at home this past week. Suddenly, Orlando is getting stops consistently, with a much better 11 touchdowns in 19 meaningful drives ratio in their last two games, holding both opponents to 45 points or less. Rob Schroeder notched the first safety of the year at Columbus this past weekend, while Jason Hall helped the team record a season high three sacks. Gruden, following the win: “The defense played great. We showed some signs of life and really got after (Columbus QB Matt) Nagy in the first half.” With Orlando QB Shane Stafford averaging more than 10 yards per pass attempt over the last two weeks, the Predators look to be a team on the rise right now.
Few handicappers consider kickers when making a wager. In the AFL, kicking is often rather spotty – even extra points are no sure thing with the goalposts only nine feet wide. And even the best kickers have seemingly random off games where they can’t seem to convert anything. But a premium kicker is worth his weight in gold, as San Jose Sabercats head coach Darren Arbet is fully aware. Arbet has been rather conservative with his high octane, Arena Bowl winning offense, consistently settling for three points on fourth down instead of attempting risky conversions. That's because of second-year kicker AJ Haglund from Central Oklahoma. Haglund nailed three field goals and all five extra point attempts at Kansas City this past weekend, providing the margin of victory for the Sabercats. For the season, Haglund is still perfect through five games: 29 out of 29 extra points, and a perfect 7-for-7 on his field goal tries.
Two elite level quarterbacks are expected to return to action this coming week after losing time to injuries in the first quarter of the season. The Philadelphia Soul lost Tony Graziani in Week 3, but he hasn’t been missed at all. Backup Matt D’Orazio has guided the team to 18 touchdowns on his 22 meaningful possessions, and the Soul have scored 71 and 59 in his two starts. This past weekend, D’Orazio rallied the Soul from behind in the second half against Tampa Bay, throwing seven touchdowns including three each to star receivers Chris Jackson and Larry Brackins, as Philly improved to 5-0 for the season. Graziani may be ready to go against Utah this coming weekend, but with D’Orazio playing brilliantly, Graziani won’t be rushed back into the lineup.
Dallas Desperados backup Chris Sanders has not been as good as D’Orazio in a backup role. Yes, the Desperados, like Philly, are still undefeated after squeaking out a 33-31 victory against the lowly New York Dragons this past weekend. But frankly, the Desperados have succeeded despite Sanders’ presence in the lineup, not because of it. The Desperados defense has been stellar, holding four of their first five opponents to 41 points or less. They held the Dragons scoreless in the fourth quarter this past weekend, allowing Dallas to rally back from a two-touchdown deficit. But Sanders was not sharp for the third time in four weeks, consistently missing open receivers. In four games as the starter, Sanders has only thrown 18 touchdown passes, while throwing a whopping 58 incomplete passes, an enormous number by AFL standards. Sanders’ inconsistent run is likely to end this coming week, with future Hall of Famer Clint Dolezel expected to return to action as the Desperados face Cleveland at home on Saturday.
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