Arena Football League: Moneylines and underdogs
By SPORTS PROFIT SYSTEMS
They say on Leap Year Day you’re supposed to try something new. So why not apply that to sports wagering as well?
Arena football kicks off this weekend and for those of you who still haven’t embraced the sport (either watching it or wagering on it), we feel inclined to tell you, you’re missing out. First of all the game itself is extremely fun to watch. Obviously the talent level is a notch below the NFL, but the indoor game has its own intricacies and nuances that make it a great experience for the fan – either in person or on TV.
Once you learn the differences from the outdoor game, it’s just like the CFL – good quality football when NFL is in its offseason. So why not? The AFL games can be wild and crazy. The field is so short teams can score in the blink of an eye, which leads to some amazing finishes. There are plenty of last second thrillers week in and week out.
Which brings us to the second part – wagering. AFL is a completely different animal than college and NFL football. Since it runs alongside of all the other higher profile sports and since their still isn’t a lot of betting volume on the games, it’s safe to say the oddsmakers don’t invest a lot of time ensuring the lines are 100 percent tight. This results in lines that are largely formulaic, similar to basketball or hockey totals. You take the records and average scoring margins for each team, match them up, and build in some points for the home team. There’s your line, whamo.
The sport is so under the radar, the books probably won’t get crushed if a line is off. That opens up a plethora of wagering opportunities for the player who has time to do homework on these teams. Just a little research on the players, coaches, and how teams do in particular spots can result in beating the lines in the long run.
Also, Handicapping 101 principles apply to Arena Football just like any other sport. Except in the AFL the public pays even less attention to things like home and away records, scheduling situations, and player motivational factors. So if you find something on a team that isn’t necessary reflected in the line, you can pounce on it. There are value spots everywhere in the AFL and several lines that wind up being off on a weekly basis, especially in TV games.
So we enjoy researching the AFL, discovering hidden gems and isolating lines that are off, to generate ATS and totals plays. However, we also like something we can put on auto pilot that capitalizes on the wild and unpredictable nature of the sport. Which brings us to our favorite way to bet on the AFL: underdog moneylines.
The sportsbooks are well aware that sharp players for years have been hammering AFL underdog money lines in certain spots – which is why they’re so hard to find. Numerous books only put out spreads and totals for AFL, which is a shame because it would be great to have a similar array of options as we do with the rest of the sports. Especially since there are plenty of “line hunters” like the one Covers.com offers that find the best payouts for you. But bravo to the books that have the stones to hang Arena moneylines – we love ‘ya. But as much as we love you, we’re still going to beat you up over the next few months. Because – with the exception of last year (more on that below) – AFL moneylines are a dream come true.
The AFL is much more chaotic and unpredictable than its outdoor brother, if you can imagine that. Low-profile college conferences come the closest only because similar to those teams, there are so many different players each game that can make an impact and nobody knows who they are or when they'll step up. For the most part in the NFL, players are researched by the public inside and out. This is not the case in the AFL where the public pays little attention to injuries, offseason player moves, and player performance on a weekly basis. Even franchises change just about every season. There isn’t a media horde at every locker room and at every press conference like in NFL and college, and the games barely even make it onto ESPN’s highlights – unless of course it’s one of the Disney games. Most of the teams are just covered regionally.
The unpredictability combined with the formulaic lines result in plenty of outright underdog wins. We wish there were more teams and more games. If it were up to us there’d be 100 teams in the league and they’d play year-round. What’s also amazing is the consistency. Which brings us to last year. For some reason, last year was an off year for AFL dogs, especially in the final three weeks of the regular season. Usually, AFL dogs keep barking all the way through (another thing that separates it from some of the other sports where most teams pack it in). After all, the AFL is essentially a season-long tryout, so players and coaches stay motivated even if their team has a dismal record. But last year, the underdog numbers dramatically fell off.
Check it out:
AFL Underdog Moneylines (full season):
2004: 45-74 (38 percent)
2005: 43-73 (37 percent)
2006: 48-77 (38 percent)
2007: 32-96 (25 percent)
AFL Underdog Moneylines (last three weeks of the regular season):
2004: 6-17 (26 percent)
2005: 9-12 (43 percent)
2006: 6-14 (30 percent)
2007: 3-18 (14 percent)
So as you can see, it’s quite apparent last season was a deviation from the amazing consistency from 2004-2006. Which is why we’re licking our chops right now and fired up for our first play on the Voodoo tonight at +280. Even if they lose (or we start out 0-10 for that matter) it won’t deflate us one bit. We know the dogs will be barking in full force sooner or later this season.
So join us and “enter the arena” as they say. Whether you play AFL on your own, with us, or you stand down this season and just track it – check out the games on TV. And no, we don’t secretly work for the networks or the league. We’re sports fans just like you. We were skeptical at first, but now we’re full fledged AFL fans. So since today is a “bonus” day – why not take a shot. You’ll be glad you did.