Betting Baseball Theories Changing
Doug Upstone
It's not considered politically correct to admit you enjoyed Major League baseball during what has become known as the steroid era. After people lost faith in baseball because of the 1994 strike that caused the deletion of the World Series, baseball needed a change to bring people back to the park. As players started paying attention to nutrition and health supplements, the seamy side also crept in and untold numbers of players started using steroids and other performance enhancements and the ball was flying out of the ball yard as never before.
Baseball assuredly heard the whispers about players "adding 20 pounds of muscle" but choose to ignore with the turnstiles twirling, as fans enjoyed all the home runs being launched across 30 ball parks. ESPN SportsCenter had a massive inventory of highlights for several shows each night and the game's popularity grew.
Though many of its presumed users have not and likely will never come forward, I always had more of a problem with Brady Anderson hitting 50 home runs and never before or after even reaching 25. Or Luis Gonzalez hitting 57 in 2001, with 31 homers the high water mark previously and going forward for. I'm not accusing either player of doing something they have denied doing, just trying to make sense of their accomplishments, as literally one-hit wonders.
While that space of time is looked upon shamefully because a bunch of oversized non-athletic (in many cases) players were "softball bangers" with limited skills, this helped usher in a new era, taking the game back to its roots with a new modern twist that can help the sports bettor.
Tampa Bay turned over its organization three years ago, finally realizing they had to have different concept to compete with Boston and the Yankees. The Rays started drafting players not only with skills, but exceptional athletes, who could run and play a different style of baseball. I've mentioned before in articles about how Peter Gammons believed in spring training of 2008, after watching Tampa Bay, he felt the Rays would be at least a .500 or better last season, since they were in his opinion the most athletic team in baseball.
The Rays easily exceeded Gammon's beliefs, winning 97 games, after never winning more than 70 in any previous season. The two most obvious aspects of improvement were the young talented everyday players and starting pitchers. Scott Kazmir was already established as the best pitcher in baseball on bad team and James Shields and Matt Garza came into their own. By late August of 2008, every true baseball fan knew the names of B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena.
Despite all the fanfare, one aspect was overlooked after Tampa Bay won first ever division title. The Rays actually scored EIGHT less runs in winning 97 games than they did in winning 66 contests in 2007. So what happened, the starting pitching and bullpen was dramatically improved as Tampa gave up 273 FEWER runs. One overlooked point is what a difference defense made.
Where this comes into play is sites like Hardball Times, who have devised methods to rate players on defense skills, beyond errors. They have metrics like Ultimate Zone Ratings, which measure a player's ability to save or cost his team runs during the course of a season. There are so many intriguing variables to learn from, that would be two more articles, but for the sake of simple clarity, we'll stick to the basics.
Tampa Bay developed a model of defensive statistics that was devised to replicate how offensive numbers worked. This led to drafting certain types of players that could reach batted balls at a higher rate then average players. The results of this new way of thinking helped produce last year's American League champions.
John Dewan, who was an early Bill James follower, started Baseball Info Solutions and created +/- method of interpreting fielding. In Sports Illustrated's Baseball Preview, he talked about the importance of fielding. "Last year, based on my metrics, the Phillies defense saved about 80 runs as team," Dewan stated. "The worst team, the Royals, lost about 50 runs."
If you consider this the norm and think of Texas and San Diego having the widest variance in runs scored from last year with a 264 runs scored differential, this suggests defense is approximately half as important as scoring runs.
If you find this argument hard to swallow, think about a few of the season results to date. Seattle is a surprise leader in the AL West, after losing 101 games last season. The Mariners added Franklin Gutierrez, who was Fielding Bible winner last season and Endy Chavez to patrol expansive Safeco Field outfield. In defensive efficiency ratings, the Mariners have jumped from 24th to eighth.
If your prefer simpler stats, the top three teams in total chances are in order, Toronto, St. Louis and the Dodgers, who are a combined 54-27, +23.8 units at this time. Putouts are a related function to total chances and the four best teams at present are Toronto, Florida, Seattle and the Dodgers, all four division leaders.
The L.A. Angels have been hamstrung with pitching woes, but they have not been helped by miserable defense, which has fallen from 14th to 29th this season.
The game of baseball has gone back to having a lineup that has boppers and strong hitters, balanced with players who can throw around the leather. Smart baseball teams are seeing the value of fielding and smart baseball bettors are too.