Beware of bye weeks in the NFL playoffs
Covers.com
The NFL regular season is behind us. The jostling for playoff positioning is over. Now bettors should consider an important trend as the first-round playoff games kick off: teams that get the bye week have a big edge.
I’m not just talking about home field. Football is a game of pounding physical violence and strategy. The team that secures the all-important week off gives its players a rest from the pounding and gets its coaching staff an extra week of preparation. The historical record shows there's an edge, both in the playoffs and the regular season.
A few years ago the San Diego Chargers had a terrible start and were winless heading into their regular season bye week. I gave out a top play on San Diego the week after, when the Chargers headed to Cleveland. The Chargers were a big underdog at Cleveland yet won the game.
The fact that San Diego was coming off a bye week factored into my thinking. Giving a coach like Marty Schottenheimer two weeks to prepare means he will often have his team ready. It’s not just my opinion; history says so, and good handicappers are always on the lookout for edges and soft lines. The same principle can apply to the second round of the playoffs when four teams will have had two weeks to prepare and their opponents will have had just one.
Since 1994, the team with the extra week of rest is 25-16-1 against the spread (ATS) in the playoffs. The bye gives coaches extra time to watch game films of their opponents and identify weakness that can be exploited. The rested team’s coaching staff also has twice as much time to put in trick plays and new wrinkles. These things give the team with the bye week several advantages, which from a betting standpoint, simply can’t be ignored.
Last year, the rested home team went 0-2 SU and ATS in the second round of the playoffs. The Colts visited No. 2 seeded Baltimore and won 15-6, while the No. 4 Patriots went to top-seeded San Diego and pulled a 24-21 upset. Both results were unusual. Normally, those rested home teams have several key edges. It happens during the regular season, too, with well coached teams. When the Patriots came off their bye week, they played at Buffalo and rolled 56-10. The Colts played at Jacksonville after their bye in a key divisional game: the Colts won 29-7. Give good coaches extra time to prepare, and they can win and cover often.
A good postseason example can be found in 2003. The rested bye teams went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Three of the games were blowouts with the Bucs rolling over the Niners 31-6, the Eagles shutting down Atlanta 20-6 and the Raiders topping the Jets 30-10. The only non-cover was the Titans, who as 4-point favorites, squeaked by the Steelers 34-31.
The final scores don’t tell the whole story, either. Two of those teams that played without the extra week of rest were off exciting, emotionally draining victories. The Falcons had traveled to Green Bay the week before and won straight up as a dog, while the 49ers needed a comeback for the ages in nipping the Giants, 39-38. The Giants missed a late field goal as San Fran climbed out of a 38-14 second-half deficit before rallying. The emotional toll a team takes can mean they have nothing left in the tank in the next round.
You may have watched those first-round playoff games that I just mentioned. I can guarantee you were not alone. The coaching staffs of the teams with the bye were also watching carefully. Coaches aren’t goofing off during the bye weekend – most are watching games on TV and making notes on the team they are about to play. Again, that extra week of preparation works to the team’s advantage. This is why it is so difficult for first-round playoff teams to advance to the Super Bowl.
A similar thing happened in 2002; bye teams went 3-1 straight up and against the number. The year before that three of the four rested teams won and covered the spread easily.
Home teams have gone 31-11 straight up in the conference playoffs since 1994, which is why sometimes you have to lay big numbers. Remember when the rested Rams were 10-point favorites over Brett Favre and the 13-4 Packers? A big number, yet the Rams rolled 45-17 as Green Bay had nine turnovers. That same playoff weekend, the Steelers were 10-point favorites over the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens, yet won and covered, 27-10.
You may see the rested home teams as bigger favorites that might be expected at first, but there are reasons why. In the NFL playoffs, they have a lot of cards stacked in their favor.