Big East Tourney Outlook
VegasInsider.com
In a meeting earlier this season the Presidents of the Big East Conference decided to include all 16 teams in the end of the season conference tournament starting in 2009. This year there will only be twelve teams in the conference tournament at Madison Square Garden and there is currently a fierce battle towards the bottom of the conference to earn those spots. Even though several teams in the Big East are not likely to be invited to the NCAA tournament, those teams will be playing hard down the stretch with hopes of holding onto a post-season spot and a trip to New York City. With the size of the conference several borderline teams will also have the chance to play its way into the NCAA tournament with strong run, or play themselves out with an upset loss.
The new 16 team format will make the tournament a huge event as almost a miniature NCAA tournament and it could further establish the Big East tournament as one of the best and most entertaining of the conference tournaments. The format will still give a huge advantage to the top four seeds. Currently the top four seeds receive byes to an eight team bracket with the remaining eight teams facing play in-games. Next season the bottom eight teams will face off and the winners then will face the second-tier teams seeded 5-8. The winners of those games would then face the 1-4 seeds, essentially giving the top four teams two byes in the bracket. It probably is the right move but a standard 16 team bracket might provide more excitement with potential upsets as it will be very tough for a bottom seed to make a miraculous run facing rested opponents.
A look at the current standings provide only one clear cut team at the top in great shape to be a 1-4 seed as Georgetown is 10-2. Notre Dame also has just two losses but Irish are behind in the conference schedule having only played ten games. Louisville is in favorable position as well at 9-3. At the bottom Rutgers at 2-10 and South Florida at 1-10 would need a miraculous finish to find a spot in the post-season tournament. Currently the remaining eleven teams are bunched up with records between 7-3 and 4-8.
Two years ago a record eight teams from the Big East were invited to the NCAA tournament. Last season that number feel to just six, but if the season ended today, a strong case for eight teams could again be made as the Big East features great depth of solid teams. Georgetown, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, and Notre Dame appear to be fairly safe selections barring a collapse to the season and at least four others could make a compelling case with a strong finish as Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, and Seton Hall are in a large pool of bubble teams. Making the conference tournament will certainly be a necessity before being considered for inclusion in the NCAA tournament, so teams like Villanova, Seton Hall, and West Virginia will have the most pressure on them to avoid missing out on the top 12. DePaul, Providence, and a surging St. John’s squad could certainly play a spoiler role by sneaking into the bracket and leaving teams with better overall records out.
Let’s examine the remaining road for the contending teams in the Big East:
Georgetown (10-2): The Hoyas were very fortunate to knock off Villanova this week and that was a crushing blow for the Wildcats. Georgetown is a lock for the NCAA tournament and unless they fall apart in the final three weeks one of the top seeds in the Big East tournament will be earned. Georgetown has not lost at home all season long and three home games remain on the schedule. Georgetown needs to continue play well as getting in position for a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament is still a possibility. Facing road games at Syracuse and at Providence in the next week will provide a tougher than expected challenge as both of those teams could really use a season-making win.
Notre Dame (8-2): The Irish currently sit in second place in the conference but the standings are a bit misleading as they are behind the rest of the league in the schedule. Notre Dame has eight conference games left on the schedule including five road games so the Irish are not yet a sure thing. Playing at Connecticut and at Louisville might make it tough for the Irish to stay in the top four.
Louisville (9-3): The Cardinals are a hot team having won six of the past seven games and the lone loss came by just two points at Connecticut. A home game against Notre Dame and a road game against Pittsburgh will go a long way to sorting out the top four teams in the standings and awarding the byes. The Cardinals did sweep Marquette already this season but also faces Georgetown on the road at the end of the season into revenge after knocking off the Hoyas last week.
Connecticut (7-3): The Huskies earned a couple of attention-grabbing wins in non-conference play beating both Georgia Tech and Indiana to propel back into the national picture. Those victories likely locked up a NCAA tournament bid but did not help the cause for positioning in the Big East. Connecticut still has eight games to go but it appears likely that the Huskies will end up in the top four and earn a bye in the Big East bracket. After this week’s home game against Notre Dame the Huskies close with seven games against teams that all currently sit towards the bottom half of the standings.
Pittsburgh (7-4): The win over Duke early in the season will continue to carry a ton of weight for the Panthers and it may be necessary as the remaining schedule is very tough. Each of the next six games is against a winning team with something to play for and four of the six games are on the road. After an 11-0 start to the season Pitt is just 8-5 since but wins over Duke and Georgetown show that the Panthers are still a threat against anyone.
Marquette (7-5): The Golden Eagles have been wildly inconsistent with four double-digit losses in conference play but also delivering a 26-point win over Notre Dame and wins in tough venues at Wisconsin in non-conference play and at Cincinnati. The remaining schedule presents some opportunities and earning a home win over Pittsburgh or Georgetown would be a good idea to build a resume that may not be that impressive by season’s end.
Syracuse (6-5): The Orange are just 4-5 in the last nine games and after being a somewhat surprising team left out last season the Orange are not exactly building an overwhelming case this season for inclusion in the Big Dance. Four of the remaining seven games are on the road for Syracuse and the home games are against Georgetown, Pittsburgh, and Marquette. It will require a strong finish for Syracuse to close the season with a winning record in the Big East and a solid Big East tournament showing may be important.
Cincinnati (6-5): With an 11-12 overall record the Bearcats might not be able to even make the NIT but that does not mean that Cincinnati is a team to overlook for the remaining contenders. Cincinnati beat Syracuse, Villanova, and Pittsburgh at home this season and took Connecticut to the limit with a one-point loss. The Bearcats also upset Louisville and crushed West Virginia on the road. In non-conference play the Bearcats also played very close games against Xavier and top-ranked Memphis. Cincinnati is in good shape to make the conference tournament with four winnable home games left on the schedule. The road games are against top teams but Cincinnati will likely finish with a winning record and will be a tough out in New York.
West Virginia (5-5): The Mountaineers started the season 10-1 with the lone loss coming by just two-points against Tennessee but the conference season has been a struggle. A one-point loss to Georgetown at home and a one-point loss at Pittsburgh will haunt West Virginia as wins there would have built a much stronger claim to the post-season. West Virginia will likely be favored in five of the remaining eight games but an upset win might be needed to gain some separation from the middle of the pack. Big games with Seton Hall and Villanova next week will contribute heavily to making or breaking the season.
Seton Hall (5-7): The Pirates have lost four consecutive games and a crushing 2-point loss against Villanova last week really hurt the post-season chances. A win over Louisville is really the only thing holding together any hopes for the Pirates and winning out is probably needed to get a legitimate look from the tournament committee. The schedule down the stretch makes that a possibility with this week’s game at West Virginia being critical for both teams.
DePaul (5-7): The Demons can hope to play spoiler down the stretch but with five wins already in conference play there is a good chance that DePaul makes the conference tournament field. The remaining schedule is very tough however and if DePaul makes the bracket it will likely be because of the failure of other teams rather than their own merit. DePaul beat Villanova earlier in the season and adding another ugly loss to the resume of a conference foe can be something to play for.
Villanova (4-7): This week’s loss to Georgetown may sum up the season for the Wildcats, close but not quite. It was a bitter ending to that game and a win would have done a great deal towards pushing Villanova back into NCAA tournament contention. Making the Big East tournament is no longer a given and although four of the final six games are at home the opponents are challenging.
St. John’s (4-7): The Red Storm has won three consecutive games to earn something to play for but the wins came against the three teams below St. John’s in the standings. The closing schedule is very difficult and the hopes of a miraculous run will likely diminish soon. A non-conference game against Duke has been thrown in for good measure and St. John’s will likely end up in the bottom four and out of the conference tournament.
Providence (4-8): The Friars are 1-6 in the past seven games but did win at Connecticut this season and have been competitive in most games. Four of the final six games are at home but Providence drew a tough conference slate this season and moving up out of the top four is going to be very tough.
Rutgers (2-10): The Scarlet Knights own just two wins but they are both impressive wins over good teams so Rutgers can be a spoiler threat as they will play against several teams fighting for position. The Knights do get to host South Florida yet this season and can at least avoid sitting in last place with a win in that game after losing to the Bulls earlier this season.
South Florida (1-10): The Bulls went 10-1 from mid-November to early January but have not win since with ten consecutive Big East losses after starting 1-0. Four of seven remaining games take place at home and South Florida has typically not been blown out in the losses this season. The Bulls could be overlooked by some of the contenders and a season-killing loss could strike Syracuse, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, or Villanova if they are not careful.
Predicted top seeds in the Big East Tournament: Georgetown, Connecticut, Notre Dame, and Louisville.
Predicted teams to miss the tournament: St. John’s, Providence, Rutgers, and South Florida.